Brookings: Topics - Pandemic Disease

The Costs of Containing H1N1

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:39:10 GMT

The Center on Social and Economic Dynamics at Brookings has released a comprehensive report on the economic impact of closing schools and day care centers to help mitigate the infection rate of the H1N1 virus. Center director Joshua Epstein highlights some of the study’s findings and notes that the cost for such closures could be substantial.

The Scouting Report: Flu Contagion in Schools

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT

Event Information:

October 21, 2009, 12:30 PM to 1:30 PM

As the nation and the world continue to grapple with H1N1, and while delivery of the vaccine in the United States faces delays, school closures are one policy tool under consideration to slow spread of the pandemic. Ross Hammond, co-author of a recent report that quantified the economic effects of school closures, and Fred Barbash, Politico senior editor, answered questions in a live web chat about the implications and potential costs of this approach.

The Scouting Report Web Chat: Flu Contagion in Schools

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

As the nation and the world continue to grapple with H1N1, and while delivery of the vaccine in the United States faces delays, school closures are one policy tool under consideration to slow spread of the pandemic. Ross Hammond, co-author of a recent report that quantified the economic effects of school closures, and Fred Barbash, Politico senior editor, took questions in a live web chat about the implications and potential costs of this approach.

H1N1 Containment: Economic Cost and Workforce Effects of School Closures

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Policymakers are looking at school closures to contain the spread of an H1N1 influenza outbreak. In the first comprehensive U.S. study of the economic cost of school and daycare center closures, the Center on Social and Economic Dynamics at Brookings finds that closing all schools in the United States for four weeks could cost up to $47 billion and lead to a reduction of up to 17% in key health care personnel.

How Computer Modeling Can Stem the Spread of Influenza

Tue, 01 Sep 2009 13:35:02 GMT

Experts are bracing for an extremely high H1N1 flu infection rate this fall and winter. Joshua Epstein says computer modeling can help the medical community and policy-makers predict which populations are most susceptible to infection, how great the infection rate will be and how to stem the spread of the virus.

Modelling to Contain Pandemics

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Joshua M. Epstein explains that agent-based computational models can capture irrational behaviour, complex social networks and global scale — all essential in confronting H1N1.

HIV/AIDS and the Protection of the Rights of Internally Displaced Persons

Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT

The phenomenon of internal displacement, affecting between 24-26 million people, combined with the estimated 10.5 million refugees worldwide, has been characterized by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon as "arguably the most significant humanitarian challenge we face." Further, as Walter Kälin points out, this challenge is even more serious where it overlaps with other key humanitarian challenges such as the global AIDS epidemic, whose impact on the internally displaced is unclear.

The Swine Flu Outbreak and its Global Economic Impact

Mon, 04 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT

As swine flu continues to spread in the United States and globally, fears of a pandemic have contributed to stock market decline as many industries suffer from a lack of public confidence. Warwick McKibbin analyzes the impact on the global economy and says the next few weeks are critical to assess whether the world will see further economic decline.

Containing the Spread of Swine Flu and Other Diseases through Dynamic Modeling

Thu, 30 Apr 2009 13:46:00 GMT

With cases of swine flu rising in the United States and around the world, health officials are taking action to contain the spread and severity of the disease. Brookings Fellow Ross Hammond discussed the artificial society models he has helped develop that can aid professionals in better understanding how to prepare for and react to epidemics.

What a Flu Pandemic Could Cost the World

Tue, 28 Apr 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Fearing the swine flu outbreak may lead to pandemic, stock markets have declined and tourism, food and transportation industries are suffering from a lack of public confidence. Brookings expert Warwick McKibbin and Alexandra A. Sidorenko offer insight into what type of reactions we could see from the global economy.

How Computer Modeling Can Avert Pandemic Outbreaks

Mon, 22 Dec 2008 15:55:44 GMT

Brookings’s Center on Social and Economic Dynamics has pioneered a model that forecasts how infectious diseases like the flu spread. Center director Joshua Epstein says the Obama administration should use modeling to avert pandemic outbreaks and restore faith in the public health system.

Coupled Contagion Dynamics of Fear and Disease: Mathematical and Computational Explorations

Mon, 15 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMT

In classical mathematical epidemiology, individuals do not adapt their contact behavior during epidemics. They do not endogenously engage, for example, in social distancing based on fear. Yet, adaptive behavior is well-documented in true epidemics. Joshua M. Epstein, Jon Parker, Derek Cummings, and Ross A. Hammond explore the effect of including such behavior in models of epidemic dynamics.

Artificial Society: Getting Clues on How a Pandemic Might Happen by Creating a Huge Model of the United States

Wed, 02 Apr 2008 00:00:00 GMT

With the possibility of a national or international emergency, people need to know how to best be prepared. Joshua M. Epstein discusses how agent-based computational modeling has the ability to create artificial societies to model human behavior in an emergency situation.

The Global Costs of an Influenza Pandemic

Sun, 15 Jul 2007 00:00:00 GMT

McKibbin and Sidorenko explore ways to estimate the economic consequences of pandemics, based on computer simulations incorporating what we know about influenza transmission and the likely response by governments, as well as by markets.

Controlling Pandemic Flu: The Value of International Air Travel Restrictions

Tue, 15 May 2007 00:00:00 GMT

Report by Joshua M. Epstein, D. Michael Goedecke, Feng Yu, Robert J. Morris, Diane K. Wagener, and Georgiy V. Bobashev (May 2007)

Assessing the Impact of Pandemic Flu

Thu, 19 Oct 2006 10:30:00 GMT

Event Information:

October 19, 2006, 10:30 AM to 12:00 PM

Health experts are concerned that a pandemic influenza could kill millions of people worldwide and cripple the global economy. As governments spend millions of dollars to stockpile medicines and plan emergency responses, what are the critical factors that should be considered for an effective response? Brookings experts addressed the potential impact of a pandemic flu worldwide.

Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza

Wed, 01 Feb 2006 00:00:00 GMT

Warwick McKibbin and Alexandra Sidorenko explore the implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak on the global economy through a range of scenarios (mild, moderate, severe, and ultra) that span the historical experience of influenza pandemics of the twentieth century.

Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror : An Individual-Based Computational Approach

Tue, 01 Jun 2004 00:00:00 GMT

This book describes the results of a cutting-edge computer model used to simulate a smallpox epidemic in a two-town county. By providing public health policymakers with a variety of feasible vaccination and isolation strategies, these models are play

Globalization and Disease: The Case of SARS

Sun, 01 Feb 2004 00:00:00 GMT

Paper by Jong-Wha Lee and Warwick J. McKibbin (2/04)

China and SARS: The Crisis and Its Effects on Politics and the Economy

Wed, 02 Jul 2003 00:00:00 GMT

Event Information:

July 02, 2003 at 12:00 AM

The outbreak of SARS in China was the most serious test of China's new leadership's ability to deal with crisis. Although the Chinese government has effectively contained the epidemic for now, there is much uncertainty about the effects of the crisis on China's political stability and economic performance. On July 2, 2003, Brookings co-hosted an event to discuss the crisis and its effects on politics and the economy.

Post-SARS, Post-WHO, and Pre-Election Taiwan

Wed, 25 Jun 2003 00:00:00 GMT

Event Information:

June 25, 2003 at 12:00 AM

At a CNAPS Roundtable Luncheon on June 25, 2003, Hsiao Bi-khim, member of the Legislative Yuan (Taiwan) and Director of the Department of International Affairs of the Democratic Progressive Party, spoke on Taiwan's handling of the recent SARS crisis, its efforts to engage the World Health Organization, and the DPP's standing in Taiwan's pre-election opinion polls.

Using Computer Simulations, Experts Devise Strategy to Contain Smallpox Attack

Mon, 23 Dec 2002 10:00:00 GMT

Event Information:

December 23, 2002 at 10:00 AM

At this briefing, on December 23, 2002, experts at the Brookings Institution-Johns Hopkins Center on Social and Economic Dynamics and the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health revealed a powerful computer simulation graphically illustrating the effects of a bioterrorism outbreak of smallpox in a hypothetical American county.

Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror: An Individual-Based Computational Approach

Sun, 01 Dec 2002 00:00:00 GMT

CSED Working Paper No. 31: Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror: An Individual-Based Computational Approach