Brookings: Topics - Energy and Environment

CO2 Emission Permit Prices Plunge In Europe: What's Up?

Adele Morris — Fri, 17 May 2013 13:47:00 -0400

Recent headlines proclaim "deep trouble" in the European cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gases, evidenced by the decline in allowance spot prices from over $25 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in June 2008 to about $3 this month. Although many press articles have referred to an "oversupply" of emissions permits, suggesting some kind of intrinsic imbalance, the markets are clearing just fine. It's just that the price is lower than forecast.

Whether this represents trouble or not depends on what you think the goal of the program should be. If the goal is to ensure that emissions in the covered industrial sectors are no higher than the emissions caps, then the program has worked just fine. It just didn't have to work very hard since much of the decline in emissions relative to projections was driven by the multi-year economic crisis. A sputtering EU economy lowered industrial activity and consumer energy demand, and this drove down allowance demand and prices. This makes compliance easier for the remaining emitters just at the time business and consumers are suffering most. This counter-cyclical property might be seen by some as a feature, not a bug.

On the other hand, if you think the goal of climate policy should be to provide stable cost effective long-run incentives to lower emissions relative to what would otherwise occur, then the ETS price plunge is a cautionary tale. First, it illustrates the importance of the design details of the carbon market. The ETS law included no provision to restrict automatically the number of allowances when prices get low. Efforts to withhold allowances failed when, not surprisingly, coal-dependent states balked at the proposed stringency in an economic downturn.

Second, the price volatility shows that the ETS hasn't really fixed the market failure in which fossil energy prices don't reflect their full social costs, including environmental damages. Economists widely advocate a price signal on carbon that would include those external costs, as best we can estimate them, in fuel prices through a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade system. The ETS illustrates one key drawback of a poorly designed cap-and-trade system: fluctuating allowance prices and abatement incentives. Price volatility makes no sense if you're trying to internalize an external cost because there's no reason to think the social cost of carbon fluctuates over the short run, much less drops by 90 percent over five years.

Third, the ETS illustrates the potential for laxity in one carbon market to erode abatement incentives abroad. For example, the Australians plan to convert their carbon tax to an ETS-linked permit program in July 2015. The prospect of linkage to the ETS lowers the expected Australian carbon price well below the current tax of about $25 per ton of CO2. To be sure, low prices in the ETS just amplify the investment-depressing effect of the broader uncertainty around a policy so incompetent one wonders if they'll go through with it.

Finally, the ETS experience reveals the limitations of framing the environmental success of a climate policy solely in terms of emissions levels. Many environmentalists are more comfortable with an emissions cap than a carbon tax because the cap provides more environmental certainty. However, the lower-than-predicted ETS allowance price has made it unexpectedly easy for utilities to fire up coal-powered plants and delay investments in cleaner natural gas and renewables, and this could set back climate efforts in the EU for years.

The fits and starts of the EU carbon market suggest the potential advantage of an enduring and credible incentive to reduce emissions through a carbon tax. Even if the EU had set a tax at the lesser of the estimated damages from emissions and the public's willingness to pay, it would surely have been greater than the current ETS price, suggesting that the policy with the greater environmental certainty has foregone the opportunity for greater environmental benefits.

Policymakers should expect the unexpected and do what they can to establish a climate policy that is robust to changing economic conditions at home and abroad. Compared to the EU's current approach, a modest predictable tax would be more robust to shocks, solidify the payoffs of investments in new technologies and emissions reductions, cost less (especially if the revenue is used wisely), and ultimately do more to protect the planet.

Authors

Adele Morris

Publication: Real Clear Markets

Image Source: © Alessandro Garofalo / Reuters

Oil, Gas and Minerals for the Public Good: The Revenue Watch 2013 Resource Governance Index

Wed, 15 May 2013 10:00:00 -0400

Event Information

May 15, 2013
10:00 AM - 11:30 AM EDT

Falk Auditorium
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

Watch live streaming video from livefrombrookings at livestream.com

Trillions of dollars in resources lie buried in the backyards of many of the world’s poorest citizens. Oil, gas and minerals can, if managed effectively and accountably, stimulate economic development. Too often, however, secrecy, corruption and weak institutions obstruct this path. To advance the understanding of this challenge, the Revenue Watch Institute has produced the Resource Governance Index, a collection of research, rankings and analysis that measures the quality of governance in the oil, gas and mining sector of 58 countries. Together, these nations produce 85 percent of the world’s oil, 90 percent of its diamonds and 80 percent of its copper, generating trillions of dollars annually. The future of these countries, both developed and developing, depends on how well they manage their resources.

On May 15, Global Economy and Development at Brookings hosted a discussion on these concerns. Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Daniel Kaufmann, president of Revenue Watch, presented the index findings, followed by a panel discussion on resource governance with Carlos Pascual, special envoy and coordinator for International Affairs, Bureau of Energy Resources, U.S. State Department, and Brookings Senior Fellow George Ingram with the Global Economy and Development program. Brookings Visiting Fellow Tamar Manuelyan Atinc moderated the discussion.

Audio

Oil, Gas and Minerals for the Public Good: The Revenue Watch 2013 Resource Governance Index

Mitigating Natural Disasters, Promoting Development: The Sendai Dialogue and Disaster Risk Management in Asia

Fri, 10 May 2013 10:00:00 -0400

Event Information

May 10, 2013
10:00 AM - 5:00 PM EDT

Falk Auditorium
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

The Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami of March 11, 2011 (3/11) had both immediate and long-term consequences. Over 20,000 people lost their lives in the triple disaster, hundreds of thousands were displaced and the economic costs were the highest ever to result from a natural disaster. Since the disaster, however, both Japan and the international community have sought to learn from this tragedy by drawing lessons for preventing, responding to, and rebuilding after natural disasters. Specifically, the Government of Japan and the World Bank launched the Sendai Dialogue in October 2012 as a way to re-conceptualize the role of disaster risk management (DRM) in development strategies, emphasizing the importance of building resilience against natural disasters.

On May 10, the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies and the Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement co-hosted a discussion featuring experts on natural disasters and disaster risk management from the United States and Asia. Panelists representing the private, public, and international sectors sought to refine some of the topics considered at the Sendai Dialogue. They identified the lessons learned from 3/11; how these lessons can be applied to overseas economic assistance programs, focusing on DRM; the specific challenges of disaster risk management among Asian countries; and how DRM can be integrated and mainstreamed into development assistance across different platforms.

Audio

Transcript

Uncorrected Transcript (.pdf)

Event Materials

Counter-Terrorism and Emergency Management: Keeping a Proper Balance

Jibum Chung — Tue, 07 May 2013 12:16:00 -0400

Counter-terrorism strategies and tactics are rightly in the consciousness of officials and civilians in the wake of the Boston Marathon bombing. While preventing future attacks should be a leading priority for government at all levels, officials must take care not to focus only on the threat of terrorist attacks. Doing so could diminish the resources, preparation, and skills needed for management of other disasters, and therefore result in greater risk to the population.

Psychology of terrorism

The major characteristic of contemporary terrorism is its unexpectedness. The time and manner of attacks are unpredictable and catch targeted communities – normally innocent civilians – by surprise. In the past, targets of were often political and symbolic figures, not the general public, and the perpetrators proudly notified who they were and why they had acted. The purposes and targets of contemporary terrorism, on the other hand, are often very unclear. Terrorists attack innocent civilians indiscriminately without prior notification, making attacks more difficult to prevent.

Even though the physical damage from terror attacks is normally smaller than that from large natural disasters, the psychological damage of such terror attacks is significant. Early research performed by Paul Slovic and others in 1980s delved into this concept of psychological damage. Using psychometric methodologies, they defined several important characteristics of many different forms of risk. At that time, in the wake of the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant accident in 1979, their main research target was nuclear power plants. Slovic underlined the importance of psychological effects of risk stating that “despite the fact that not a single person died (in the TMI accident), … no other accident in our history has produced such costly societal impacts.”[1] Reminiscent of today’s terror attacks, they concluded that the nuclear risk is unknown, dread, uncontrollable, involuntary, and likely to affect future generations, so it has a very critical impact on the minds of the general public. Contemporary terrorism shares many of these characteristics: it is usually unknown, frightening, uncontrollable, involuntary, and also indiscriminately fatal to even children (future generations). It surely has significant psychological effects on people’s minds.

Terrorism and media

For the news media, terrorism is a very strong “product” which easily attracts a lot of viewers. Most media aggressively sell the product, terrorism, and help sow fear as people enthusiastically consume the product. In a seminal work on the “social amplification of risk,” Roger Kasperson and colleagues[2] described how the public perception of risk interacts with social and cultural systems (such as the media) and can be amplified during the information delivery process, sometimes resulting in “institutionalized fear.” This amplification process can eventually generate certain public behaviors, some negative and some positive, and may result in disruptions in society. Obviously, some risks are more likely to be amplified than others. Terrorism, because of its special characteristics, is easily amplified. Also, today’s social network communication technologies, such as Facebook and Twitter, can accelerate and strengthen the amplification process.

Thus, the media focus and public concerns create political pressure, and national emergency management policymakers prioritize counter–terrorism, or “civil defense,” over other forms of risk management, such as “civil protection” against all hazards including natural disasters.

Civil defense again?

Culturally and historically, “civil defense” is quite different from “civil protection.” Civil defense, “born out of wartime efforts to organize air-raid precautions, sheltering arrangements and alarms for non-combatants,” has military origins and focuses on protection against foreign military attacks.[3] Civil protection, on the other hand, has disaster origins and focuses on many forms of natural and man-made disasters and other public safety issues. In the Cold War era, civil defense against nuclear attack was the main objective of national emergency management in the United States. At that time, nuclear attack was an “institutionalized fear” made by media and government authorities. Many American homes and public buildings prepared nuclear fallout shelters, illustrating this fear very clearly.

Following the end of Cold War and recognition of the increasing trend of large man-made and natural disasters, “civil protection” gradually replaced the term “civil defense” in most countries. Civil protection focuses more on generic disasters than on the armed aggression, and administratively it is more decentralized than civil defense. In the United States, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was established in 1979. It was mainly a civil defense organization during the Cold War, but in the last two decades has worked to redirect some resources toward the management of various disasters (civil protection). James Witt, director of FEMA under President Clinton, clarified this change of direction. As the FEMA website explains, “the end of the Cold War also allowed Witt to redirect more of FEMA's limited resources from civil defense into disaster relief, recovery and mitigation programs.”[4] FEMA also introduced an “all hazards approach,” recognizing the many different kinds of disasters that may require mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery.

The September 11, 2001 terror attack dramatically changed the direction of emergency management in the United States. After the attack, the United States hastily constructed the Department of Homeland Security and downgraded FEMA, whose main duty was civil protection. This attracted criticism from some public administration experts that the U.S. government concentrated too much on terrorism, perhaps because of the “social amplification” of the risk in the wake of the attack, despite the many other critical risks facing U.S. citizens. Basically, the critics charged, the United States changed the direction of its emergency management from civil protection back to Cold War-style civil defense.

Balance collapsed in emergency management

The cost of that shift in priorities was on full display when Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans in 2005, easily destroying the weak levee system and submerging much of New Orleans under water. Federal and local governments’ mitigation, response and recovery to the Hurricane Katrina were mostly inadequate – resulting in the most severe disaster damage in U.S. history at that time. Due to budget cuts, the Army Corps of Engineers had been unable to strengthen the levee system protecting New Orleans. After the flooding and other damage occurred, the governments’ disaster situation awareness was poor. Communication among authorities and between authorities and civilians was broken. Assistance from the federal government was delayed and insufficient, and people died while awaiting rescue or other assistance. Critics also charged that too many government officials were not familiar with the “National Response Plan” which was implemented in December 2004 after 9/11 terrorist attack. Planning and training for large natural disasters were insufficient after the implementation of the plan. In short, too great a focus on counter-terrorism undermined capacities for natural disaster mitigation, response, and recovery in the post-9/11 United States.

This not only the case in the United States, however. The United Kingdom experienced a similar transition after the 7/7 London bombings in 2005, in which suicide attacks by four home-grown terrorists killed 55 civilians. In response, the U.K. government introduced several measures such as the Prevention of Terrorism Bill. Critics said that some responses to the attacks were anti-liberal, militarizing, and centralizing, and were in the wrong direction from the viewpoint of an all hazards approach. The problem, as one observer wrote, was that “too great a focus on one type of threat and on institutional preparedness can divert attention away from other problematic areas and distance the public.”[5]

In South Korea, the provocations of North Korea can divert the direction of national emergency management. South Korea had been under a thorough civil defense-oriented culture since the end of the Korean War in 1953. All citizens, for example, must participate in compulsory civil defense training preparing for military attacks from North Korea, and there is a military service requirement for men.

The mood of reconciliation that developed on the Korean Peninsula during the post-Cold War Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations (1998-2008) changed the direction of Korean emergency management policies, highlighted by the 2004 establishment of the South Korean National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) by the Roh Moo-hyun administration. Large disasters such as Typhoon Rusa in 2002 and the Daegu subway accident in 2004 demanded a comprehensive emergency management system that can manage the all types of hazards, not only a military attack by North Korea. South Korea is gradually replacing its civil defense culture with one of civil protection. The Lee Myung-bak administration (2008-2013) established the Ministry of Public Administration and Security (MOPAS) in 2008. MOPAS enlarged the scope of disaster management to include fostering a safety culture and anticipating future disasters induced by climate change. The Ministry has proposed civil protection strategies such as promoting public safety awareness, strengthening leadership of local governments, and promoting participation of private companies in disaster preparation and mitigation. Also, MOPAS pushed ahead several projects like the “Safe City” initiative that tries to enhance the safety level of local communities by encouraging the participation of various local stakeholders in preparation, mitigation, and response planning an activities. This means that the civil protection ideals and an all hazards approach were widely adopted as a government policy direction at that time.

However, the bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island by North Korean forces in November 2010, which was unexpected and resulted in four deaths, changed this trend back again. After the Yeonpyeong Island bombardment, most projects for disaster and safety management were canceled and delayed because the highest priority was placed on national defense against North Korea. To some extent, this mirrors the experiences of the United States after 2001 and the United Kingdom after 2005. Although the deaths by Yeonpyeong Island bombardment were relatively few compared 209 deaths in Typhoon Rusa and 192 deaths in the Daegu subway accident, the political impact on the Korean government was huge.

Keeping a balance in emergency management

Civil protection and an all hazards approach are vital to maintaining preparation and the best possible response to major natural and man-made disaster. But they can be weakened if governments focus too heavily on national security (including civil defense against terrorism). And that can result in the other large disasters. Keeping balance in emergency management planning, and implementing an all hazards approach are crucial to effect public administration in this area.

The United States is at risk from a diverse range of natural and man-made disasters. Climate change will produce historically strong hurricanes like Katrina and Sandy more and more frequently. There is a high possibility of large earthquakes and outbreaks of new pandemic diseases. As indicated by the recent Texas fertilizer plant explosion, man-made disasters can also have big impacts. To cite another area where civil protection should not be neglected, the number of road fatalities per one million inhabitants was 111 per million inhabitants – or, well over 30,000 individuals – in the United States in 2009. This rate is almost three times Japan’s rate of 45 fatalities per one million inhabitants, and higher than the European Union average of 70 fatalities per one million inhabitants.

How do we keep balance in emergency management? Though officials in democratic countries such as South Korea and the United States must respond to public opinion, approaches to emergency management should be decided neither by public opinion, which can be easily agitated by shocking incidents, nor by the news media which tend to follow sensational events. Although the number of casualties in the Boston terror attack was much smaller than Texas explosion, the psychological impact and news attractiveness of Boston were much higher. Indeed, the news of the Texas fertilizer plant explosion was almost swept away in an ocean of news about Boston. Instead, priorities in emergency management should be decided based on the scientific evidence, accurate statistics, and rational policy planning.

Counter-terrorism is necessary and obviously very important. Governments must take policy measures to prevent terrorism, but they should resist contributing to institutionalized fear. They must also remember that human beings are surrounded by a plethora of risks, many of which cause more physical damage than terrorism. Governments should prepare policy measures for mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery for all hazards we can encounter, and should keep a balance based on sciences and accurate statistical data.

For this purpose, a number policy measures are appropriate. First, we need a clear cost-benefit analyses of the current policies in emergency management. According to research conducted by John Mueller and Mark G Stewart and published in 2011,[6] the United States has spent over $1.1 trillion on homeland security after 9/11; Mueller and Stewart evaluate the effectiveness of this massive spending as very low. If this money, or some of it, had been applied to other public safety areas, such as climate change mitigation or industrial safety management where the cost effectiveness is high, the United States could be a safer place.

Second, people should know what the real risks are. The well known risks such as traffic accidents, industrial accidents, and floods kill far more people in America than terrorism does. According to several psychological research studies, familiarity can reduce the level of the public’s risk perception. So, there is a much smaller sense of urgency about many of the risks that surround us every day. Science and statistics on risks, and governmental efforts to provide information and education about risks, can help individuals and local communities effectively increase their overall safety level.

[1] Slovic, P. “Perception of Risk,” Science, Vol. 236, No. 4799 (1987): 283.

[2] Kasperson, R., Renn, O., Slovic, P., Brown, H. and Emel, J. “Social Amplification of Risk: a Conceptual Framework,” Risk Analysis, 8(2), (1988): 177-187.

[3] Alexander, D. “From Civil Defense to Civil Protection--and Back Again,” Disaster Prevention Management, 11(3), (2002): 209.

[4] FEMA, about the agency, http://www.fema.gov/about-agency.

[5] O'Brien, G. “UK Emergency Preparedness: A Step in the Right Direction?” Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 59, No. 2 (2006): 79.

[6] Mueller, J. and Stewart, M.G., Terror, Security, and Money: Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and Costs of Homeland Security (New York: Oxford University Press, 2011).

Authors

Jibum Chung

Image Source: © Kim Kyung Hoon / Reuters

DOE’s Clean Energy Manufacturing Initiative Leverages Regions

Scott Andes and Mark Muro — Mon, 06 May 2013 17:26:00 -0400

This spring, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is launching a new Clean Energy Manufacturing Initiative that will support both clean energy and manufacturing competitiveness by promoting greater energy efficiency in the U.S. production sector. Rolled out at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in Tennessee last month, the new initiative advances a smart take on both the nation’s energy and manufacturing strategies. But more than that it reflects a welcome new spatial and geographic emphasis at the Energy Department.

At the most general level, the new initiative marshals a number of DOE offices, research institutions, and private sector partners to map out and implement networks that promote clean energy production and energy-efficient manufacturing. Key to the effort is that this new push—like the Obama administration’s National Network for Manufacturing Innovation (NNMI) proposal—takes an explicitly regional approach to innovation and the diffusion of next-generation technologies.

In this respect, the initiative aims to engage with regional epicenters of advanced manufacturing such as smart automation in Austin, Tex. and low-heat stamping in Denver, Colo. to drive local and national advances. These areas have established production ecosystems and are driving the technological frontier within clean energy; they are prime sites of U.S. innovation. Along these lines, the initiative has already awarded a total of $15 million to five projects in five different regional manufacturing clusters.

Yet the new focus is not just about covering the geographic bases. By supporting centers of excellence close to regional industrial clusters, DOE is leaning on a large body of literature that suggests innovation results from an iterative set of exchanges between production and research activities that more often than not thrive on proximity.

To be sure, old-line thinking continues to maintain that R&D facilities develop prototypes out of whole cloth and then transfer design requirements to manufacturers, wherever in the world plants are located. However, while this may be the case for low-tech industries, the reality for advanced industries is often the other way around. The genesis of many new technologies comes from within the production process via daily interactions with production facilities. These “co-location synergies” emerge as manufacturers adopt new techniques and equipment to increase efficiency and R&D engineers build upon shop-floor technological competencies to create innovate products and services. And within strong regional clusters, particularly metropolitan regions, such co-location benefits are able to penetrate beyond the incumbent R&D performing firm into the local supply chain—creating high-value start-ups and upstream innovation.

And in fact the ORNL launch event highlighted all of this. Led by Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Dave Danielson with Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam in attendance, the event highlighted both a very cool DOE facility—the Carbon Fiber Technology Facility (CFCF) at ORNL—and EERE’s emergent regional stance. CFCF is a production line-sized test bed for public and private sector researchers to explore new carbon fiber composites at scale. As such, it offers to both East Tennesssee and the nation a one-of-a-kind piece of shared industrial infrastructure as well as a focal point for local technical exchange. Currently, for example, 45 firms make up the carbon fiber composite consortium that work with CFCF researchers—many of which are small-and medium-sized firms located in East Tennessee. In that way, the CFCF is emerging as the hub of an nascent “industrial commons,” where firms of all sizes can leverage not only CFCF resources but the broader R&D infrastructure at Oak Ridge, the University of Tennessee, and in firms. In other words, the carbon fiber hub and cluster being fostered in East Tennessee—like Austin and Denver—epitomizes the increasingly “bottom-up” feel of U.S. and global innovation systems and likewise highlights a new region-oriented stance at DOE.

While it’s too early to judge the impact of the Energy Department’s Clean Energy Manufacturing Initiative, the new push looks promising. By focusing more of DOE’s efforts on regions, a historically isolated, sometimes obtuse agency may be beginning to align itself with some of the most dynamic technology development exchanges of all—those that happen locally.

Authors

Scott Andes
Mark Muro

Image Source: © Jason Reed / Reuters

Measuring Disasters' Full Impact

Elizabeth Ferris — Wed, 01 May 2013 16:19:00 -0400

Natural disasters can be deadly and devastating but their frequency, intensity and unpredictability teach us valuable lessons. A look back at 2012 shows that, all around the world, it was a year of “recurring disasters.” From the drought in Africa’s Sahel to Pakistan’s third consecutive year of widespread flooding to Hurricane Sandy, Senior Fellow Elizabeth Ferris, co-director of the Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement, examines the consequences and lessons of last year’s disasters.

Video

Measuring Disasters' Full Impact

Authors

Elizabeth Ferris

A Conversation on President Obama’s Trip to Mexico and Costa Rica

Joshua Meltzer, Diana Villiers Negroponte, Ted Piccone and Neil Ruiz — Wed, 01 May 2013 17:59:00 -0400

In advance of President Obama’s trip to Mexico and Costa Rica later this week, Brookings scholars Ted Piccone, Joshua Meltzer, Neil Ruiz and Diana Negroponte discuss the main priorities on the agenda between the United States, Mexico and Costa Rica. Topics covered include: expanding trade and economic cooperation between the U.S., Mexico and Central America, U.S. immigration reform, border security, drugs, crime and violence in Mexico and Central America, energy cooperation, and local politics in Mexico.

Read the transcript » (PDF)

“I think there has a been a view around for awhile now that the bilateral relationship at least with Mexico has been dominated by drugs and violence. And I think there is going to be a concerted effort here to refocus attention on to the depth and size of the economic relationship.” — Joshua Meltzer

“It’s a second term trip for the president, but its early in his second term and I think he’s got a lot of heavy lifting still to do on issues that are particularly important to Latin America and especially important to Mexico and Central America. These issues [jobs and the economy, immigration, security] are not the typical ones on the foreign policy agenda. These are issues that are bread and butter, hot-button domestic political issues but they are very important to the Latins, particularly in Mexico and Central America.” — Ted Piccone

“Immigration is a hot button issue of course. It’s something that is still alive here in the U.S. There’s no reform yet to report back to Mexican and Central American leaders. But these meetings actually set the stage for building the relationship for working together once immigration reform is implemented into law.” —Neil Ruiz

“This is a time when Enrique Pena Nieto, the newly elected Mexican president, has got a chance to really celebrate the strength of the Mexican economy: 3.5 percent GDP growth this year, 3.9 percent GDP growth last year… [and] a growing middle class, which means more people with a car and an ability to take a vacation, with iPods, with cellular telephones, and more mobile.” —Diana Negroponte

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A Conversation on President Obama’s Trip to Mexico and Costa Rica

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Wanted: A Noah's Ark for Species' DNA

William Y. Brown — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 11:22:00 -0400

DNA was the topic of U.S. Supreme Court argument on April 15. Can a gene be patented if it occurs in nature—which is generally grounds for exclusion—but has been identified by an individual scientist or company and removed from the cells in which it occurs? Lower courts are split on the matter, and the justices didn't tip their hands.

But whether a gene can be patented will be irrelevant if it disappears before anyone has identified it. That is what's happening now and will continue to happen—at a rate perhaps 100 to 200 times faster than in prehistoric days—due to modern man's outsize influence on nature and encroachment on habitat. Unless we have sequenced a species' DNA, extinction means gone forever and never really known. Preservation of the DNA is the simpler, cheaper route, with sequencing to follow. If the Library of Congress is where every book is stored, the world needs the equivalent for species DNA.

Preserving the DNA of known species would provide genetic libraries for research and commerce and for recovery of species that are endangered—the Armur Leopard and the Northern Right Whale, for example. Preservation would also offer the potential to restore species that have gone extinct. We currently lack preserved DNA for most of the 1.9 million species that have been named, but that is fewer than the number of people in Houston. No doubt additional species exist, but their DNA can be preserved as they are named. The job is doable.

Just a small fraction of species are maintained as living organisms in cultivation or captivity or are kept frozen as viable seeds or cells. These are the best, because whole, reproducing organisms can be grown from them by planting or cloning. Botanical gardens and zoos keep the living stuff. The Millennium Seed Bank at Kew Gardens in England is on a course to preserve frozen seeds of all vascular plant species, and the Svalbard Seed Vault in Norway is taking seed duplicates from other facilities. The San Diego "Frozen Zoo" has some 20,000 viable cell cultures representing 1,000 vertebrate species, including "Lonesome George," the last Pinta Island Galapagos tortoise, which expired last year. Its DNA would have disintegrated if the Frozen Zoo hadn't made a heroic mission after the tortoise's death to get a sample.

The American Museum of Natural History in New York keeps 70,000 samples in liquid nitrogen, the Academy of Natural Sciences in Philadelphia has frozen samples for 4,000 bird species, and the National Museum of Natural History at the Smithsonian has embarked on an ambitious course to freeze species tissues.

For a fraction more species, DNA is kept at low temperature in dead cells or extracted form. The American Museum of Natural History in New York keeps 70,000 samples in liquid nitrogen, the Academy of Natural Sciences in Philadelphia has frozen samples for 4,000 bird species, and the National Museum of Natural History at the Smithsonian has embarked on an ambitious course to freeze species tissues.

Yet the DNA of most species is still not preserved. We need a plan. One might think that preserving the DNA of life on earth would cost a moonshot of money. But a viable cell culture in liquid nitrogen for a species at the Frozen Zoo costs only $200 to $300 to establish and just $1 a year to maintain. Multiplying $250 per species by 1.9 million species comes to $475 million, ignoring what has already been done. The U.S. pays more than twice that daily on the national debt. But let's be real, nobody is throwing new money around, even when the priority is obvious.

There is another way that could work, and would be much cheaper. First, we could develop a website to track progress on preservation whose key information is managed directly by contributing facilities. It would be a "wiki" site for DNA repositories, and many keepers would be delighted to share information if they could manage it themselves. They could both update holdings and let people know what species they will take and under what conditions.

Second, we can establish new incentives and mandates for contributing specimens, including grant, publication and permit requirements. Some grant makers and publications already require that DNA information be shared with a genetic information bank kept by the National Institutes of Health. Why not tissue too?

Third, donors who care could help develop and fund "citizen science" projects of museums and nonprofit groups to collect, identify and contribute specimens to repositories. The collections would grow, and so might public connection to nature. At the end of it all, we will preserve what we appreciate. And patent lawyers will be happy too, because they'll have something to fight about.

Authors

William Y. Brown

Publication: Wall Street Journal

Image Source: © Henry Romero / Reuters

Trends in Natural Disaster Response and the Role of Regional Organizations

Mon, 22 Apr 2013 14:00:00 -0400

Event Information

April 22, 2013
2:00 PM - 3:30 PM EDT

Saul/Zilkha Rooms
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

Global demographic trends suggest that more people are living in areas vulnerable to sudden-onset natural disasters even as scientists predict that the frequency and intensity of these disasters are likely to increase as a result of the effects of climate change. These trends, coupled with recent high-profile mega-disasters like Hurricane Sandy and the drought in the Sahel, are raising global awareness of the need to build the capacity of national governments, civil society organizations and international actors to prevent, respond to and recover from natural disasters. The Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement’s third annual Review of Natural Disasters outlines these major disasters in 2012 and key response opportunities, in particular the role of regional organizations. Although regional mechanisms are playing increasingly important roles in disasters, there has been remarkably little research on their role in disaster risk management.

On April 22, the Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement hosted the launch of its new report, “In the Neighborhood: The Growing Role of Regional Organizations in Disaster Risk Management” and its Annual Review of Natural Disasters for 2012 “The Year of Recurring Disasters.” Senior Fellow Elizabeth Ferris, co-director of the Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement introduced the Annual Review of 2012 and moderated a discussion about the role of regional organizations in disaster risk management. She was joined by Rosa Malango from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Ian O’Donnell from the Global Disaster Preparedness Center of the American Red Cross, and Cletus Springer, director of the department of sustainable development at the Organization for American States.

In Disaster Risk Management, A Gender-Sensitive Approach is Smart

Elizabeth Ferris — Sat, 20 Apr 2013 12:00:00 -0400

A gender-sensitive approach to disaster risk management is smart, because women not only are among those most affected by disasters, but they also play significant roles in disaster response and risk reduction. At our event on April 22 (Earth Day), I'll share these and other findings from my annual disasters review with Daniel Petz and Chareen Stark.

Join the conversation on Twitter using #Disasters2012.

Why do we need to consider gender in disaster risk management? Women and girls are typically at greater risk from natural disasters than men—particularly in low-income countries and among the poor—and as a result, a natural disaster can exacerbate existing inequalities and can lead to new forms of discrimination.

At the same time, women play significant roles in all stages of disaster and climate risk management, often at the frontline as responders and by bringing valuable resources to disaster and climate risk reduction and recovery. Also, their critical role in the social and economic well-being of their communities makes it crucial for them to be active participants in disaster risk reduction, response and recovery efforts.

Yet, in practice, disaster risk management policies and processes throughout the world largely exclude the important work already being done by women.

Disaster risk reduction that delivers gender equality is a cost-effective win-win option for reducing vulnerability and sustaining the livelihoods of whole communities.

—Margareta Wahlström, UN Assistant Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction

The effective and meaningful participation of women in policymaking, programming and implementation is crucial to increasing success in all phases of disaster risk management. This participation, combined with timely and adequate attention to the gender aspects of disasters and climate change, can in turn lead to greater gender equality and strengthen the resilience of entire communities.

Authors

Elizabeth Ferris

Image Source: © Hyungwon Kang / Reuters

The Hazard of Wildfires

Elizabeth Ferris — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 12:00:00 -0400

Wildfires have been widespread in recent years, and are becoming a greater hazard, due to climate change and urban sprawl. Leading up to our event on April 22 (Earth Day), I'll continue to share with you some additional interesting findings from my annual disasters review with Daniel Petz and Chareen Stark.

Join the conversation on Twitter using #Disasters2012.

Wildfires—defined by the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) as "uncontrolled burning fires, usually in wild lands, which can cause damage to forestry, agriculture, infrastructure and buildings"—have been a widespread phenomenon in recent years. The map below shows the number of observed fire occurrence readings from combined remote sensing products from 1996 to 2007¹.

¹ Data from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Radiospectrometer) and ATSR (Along Track Scanning Radiometer). From Max A. Moritz, M.A. Parisian, E. Batillori, M.A. Krawchuk, J. Van Dorn, D.J. Ganz and K. Hayhoe, Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity, Ecosphere, June 2012, Volume 3, no. 6, Art. 49, p. 11., www.esajournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1890/ES11-00345.1

While these fires have not resulted in a large number of fatalities, their economic impact has been significant:

In the future, wildfires will be of even greater concern, due to the growth of urban sprawl and the effects of climate change. As more people begin to live in residential areas that border undeveloped wildland vegetation, the risk of destroyed homes and fatalities from wildfires increases. And a hotter and drier climate in many parts of the world, fuelled by global warming, provides more favorable conditions for wildfires—which, in turn, leads to loss of forest and forest degradation that drives further climate change.

Authors

Elizabeth Ferris

Image Source: © Handout . / Reuters

How Effective Are Regional Organizations in Disaster Risk Reduction and Management?

Elizabeth Ferris — Thu, 18 Apr 2013 12:00:00 -0400

Regional organizations are playing an increasingly important role in disaster risk reduction and management, but how effective are they? Leading up to our event on April 22 (Earth Day), I'll continue to share with you some additional interesting findings from my annual disasters review with Daniel Petz and Chareen Stark.

Join the conversation on Twitter using #Disasters2012.

While regional organizations are playing an increasingly important role in disasters, there has been remarkably little research on their role in disaster risk management. In an effort to address this gap, Daniel Petz and I examined thirteen regional organizations, to see how they stack up against one another according to 17 indicators of effectiveness.

Here are our results (a glossary of acronyms appears at the end of this blog post):

As you can see above, the landscape of regional organizations is complex and diverse.

In most regions, governments and other actors see value in working together to prevent disasters and—to a lesser extent—to respond to disasters occurring in their respective regions. At the same time, regional organizations have worked out different mechanisms for encouraging collaboration, including frameworks for disaster risk reduction, regional military protocols, joint training exercises and regional insurance schemes. Also, technical cooperation mechanisms—such as early warning systems—have been established, but few regional bodies provide ways of channeling financial assistance after a disaster.

*Here are the acronyms for key terms we used above:

DRM = disaster risk management
DRR = disaster risk reduction
DM = disaster management

CCA = climate change adaptation
IDRL = international disaster response laws, rules and principles

and for the regional organizations we studied:

ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations
AU = African Union
CAN = Andean Community of Nations
CARICOM = Caribbean Community
CoE = Council of Europe
ECOWAS = Economic Community of West African States
EU = European Union
LAS = League of Arab States
OAS = Organization of American States
SAARC = South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
SADC = Southern African Development Community
SICA = Central American Integration System
SPC = Secretariat of the Pacific Community

Authors

Elizabeth Ferris

Energy, Indigenous Communities and the Arctic Council

Wed, 17 Apr 2013 08:30:00 -0400

Event Information

April 17, 2013
8:30 AM - 2:00 PM EDT

Falk Auditorium
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

Register for the Event
Owing to the vast economic opportunities and environmental, social, and geopolitical challenges it presents, the Arctic is emerging as an important topic of debate. With an estimated 25 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas reserves, and with climate change making shorter maritime routes through Arctic waters possible, the rewards of successful economic development are plentiful. However, the remote, pristine frontier is home to some of the world’s harshest conditions making energy development, maritime trade and tourism increasingly difficult and dangerous. The Arctic is also home to indigenous communities whose livelihoods are likely to be challenged by both the effects of climate change and increasing external human activity in the region.

On April 17, the Energy Security Initiative at Brookings hosted a forum to discuss the implications of greater Arctic energy and natural resource development and assessed how the international community can best cooperate to ensure that such developments are done in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner. The forum begins with keynote remarks from Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, president of Iceland, and Kuupik Kleist, a member of Parliament of Greenland and former Greenland prime minister. Other speakers included the incoming Chair of the Senior Arctic Officials of the Arctic Council, Patrick Borbey; David Hayes, deputy secretary of the U.S. Department of Interior; and Mead Treadwell, lieutenant governor of the State of Alaska.

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20130417_arctic_energy_transcript

Hurricanes, Typhoons and Floods: Recurring Disasters in 2012

Elizabeth Ferris — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 12:00:00 -0400

Hurricanes Sandy and Irene, typhoons in the Philippines, and floods in Pakistan are striking recent examples of recurring natural disasters. Leading up to our event on April 22 (Earth Day), I'll continue to share with you some additional interesting findings from my annual disasters review with Daniel Petz and Chareen Stark.

Join the conversation on Twitter using #Disasters2012.

After reviewing natural disasters in 2012, I was struck by the fact the several of the largest disasters of that year were preceded by similar events in 2011. In 2012, Hurricane Sandy followed on the heels of Irene on the U.S. East Coast; another destructive typhoon wreaked havoc in the southern Philippines, and Pakistan was hit by floods for a third consecutive year.

These recurring disasters were significant in terms of lives lost and numbers of people displaced...

... in terms of economic cost...

... and due to the sheer numbers of people who were impacted.

Recurring disasters undermine the resilience of affected individuals and communities, and call for long-term solutions that address livelihood issues and the welfare of those displaced. In addition, these disasters highlight the need for increased commitment to, and investment in, disaster risk reduction.

Implementing sound disaster (and displacement) policies can go a long way in mitigating the effects of recurring disasters, and in fostering the development of more resilient societies.

Authors

Elizabeth Ferris

Black Carbon and Kerosene Lighting: An Opportunity for Rapid Action on Climate Change and Clean Energy for Development

Arne Jacobson, Nicholas L. Lam, Tami C. Bond and Nathan Hultman — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 14:09:00 -0400

SUMMARY

Replacing inefficient kerosene lighting with electric lighting or other clean alternatives can rapidly achieve development and energy access goals, save money and reduce climate warming. Many of the 250 million households that lack reliable access to electricity rely on inefficient and dangerous simple wick lamps and other kerosene-fueled light sources, using 4 to 25 billion liters of kerosene annually to meet basic lighting needs. Kerosene costs can be a significant household expense and subsidies are expensive. New information on kerosene lamp emissions reveals that their climate impacts are substantial. Eliminating current annual black carbon emissions would provide a climate benefit equivalent to 5 gigatons of carbon dioxide reductions over the next 20 years. Robust and low-cost technologies for supplanting simple wick and other kerosene-fueled lamps exist and are easily distributed and scalable. Improving household lighting offers a low-cost opportunity to improve development, cool the climate and reduce costs.

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Authors

Arne Jacobson
Nicholas L. Lam
Tami C. Bond
Nathan Hultman

The Road Ahead for China’s Economy

Tue, 16 Apr 2013 09:00:00 -0400

Event Information

April 16, 2013
9:00 AM - 4:30 PM EDT

Falk Auditorium
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

In recent years, China has increasingly confronted new challenges in economic policy, including rising labor costs, low household consumption, rapid urbanization and inefficient domestic investment. While it is now widely acknowledged in Beijing that major structural adjustments are needed to address these issues, implementing serious reforms pose major challenges for the newly installed leadership.

On April 16, the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings and China’s Caixin Media Group hosted a conference to examine the daunting challenges confronting China’s new leaders. The morning panels featured a discussion of the financial sector as well as the relationship between the domestic agenda for financial reform and China’s evolving strategy for outbound investment. The afternoon panels took a close look at the political obstacles to implementing major economic reform in areas such as tax policy, the household registration system and land transfers, as well as explore the impact of environmental and natural resource constraints on China’s economic growth.

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The Clean Energy Ministerial in Delhi: An International Forum to Address National Energy Policy Goals

Nathan Hultman — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 15:32:00 -0400

This week, India will host the fourth Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM), an annual gathering of energy ministers and high-level energy officials from the world’s major economies. While this conference tends to go largely unnoticed in the wider world, the CEM represents an innovative—and potentially fruitful—approach to international energy and environmental policy. Initiated in 2009 by then-incoming U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu, the CEM is designed to bring together those officials charged with understanding, regulating and improving the energy systems of the world’s biggest energy users. According to the CEM, the 20 participating countries account for 90 percent of clean energy investment and 80 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

There is no formal CEM treaty structure nor is there a specific mission or agenda other than providing a forum to address issues of common concern. This makes it similar in some ways to other forums like the G-8, G-20 or ASEAN, but its sole focus on energy differentiates it. Consisting of a high-level ministerial dialogue, working groups on concrete initiatives and high-level public-private meetings, the CEM provides unique opportunities. First, it allows for informal consultations on issues of common concern, and therefore allows for the discovery, development and articulation of common goals. Second, the meeting provides a platform for government technical experts to share best practices and ideas about concrete and actionable steps that could help address energy policy goals at the national level.

The location of the CEM rotates annually, and this year India will host in Delhi. With the international community currently engaged in a vigorous discussion about post-2015 development goals, attention has turned toward improving and broadening access to clean and sustainable energy services as a means of achieving poverty reduction goals. Reaching this broad goal will take a combination of both long-term development work and specific steps that are amenable to national-level policy interventions.

In a new policy brief, Arne Jacobson, Nick Lam, Tami Bond and I have identified one such possible clear and actionable step toward such a shared goal—replacing single-wick kerosene lamps with cleaner substitutes. We argue that while the household benefits of such lamps are clear and have been well documented, new research on the much greater climate impacts of black carbon from these lamps underscores a climate benefit that would be much greater than previously estimated. In addition, at a time when there is broad consensus about the need to start phasing out fossil fuel subsidies—in a way that doesn’t hurt the poorest¬—our approach can help reduce state expenditures on kerosene subsidies while actually improving the quality of the energy services for those most in need. This is an issue of great interest in India currently, where kerosene subsidy expenditures are large and the topic of much debate.

Our suggestion is just one of several focused, low-cost and technically feasible approaches to improving the energy systems in CEM countries. Improving appliance and building efficiency standards are other examples. The CEM has the potential to stimulate real and lasting improvements in national energy policies in the world’s major economies—and with that, real and lasting improvements in development, environmental and energy-security outcomes.

Authors

Nathan Hultman