Brookings: Topics - The Arctic

Energy, Indigenous Communities and the Arctic Council

Wed, 17 Apr 2013 08:30:00 -0400

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April 17, 2013
8:30 AM - 2:00 PM EDT

Falk Auditorium
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

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Owing to the vast economic opportunities and environmental, social, and geopolitical challenges it presents, the Arctic is emerging as an important topic of debate. With an estimated 25 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas reserves, and with climate change making shorter maritime routes through Arctic waters possible, the rewards of successful economic development are plentiful. However, the remote, pristine frontier is home to some of the world’s harshest conditions making energy development, maritime trade and tourism increasingly difficult and dangerous. The Arctic is also home to indigenous communities whose livelihoods are likely to be challenged by both the effects of climate change and increasing external human activity in the region.

On April 17, the Energy Security Initiative at Brookings hosted a forum to discuss the implications of greater Arctic energy and natural resource development and assessed how the international community can best cooperate to ensure that such developments are done in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner. The forum begins with keynote remarks from Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, president of Iceland, and Kuupik Kleist, a member of Parliament of Greenland and former Greenland prime minister. Other speakers included the incoming Chair of the Senior Arctic Officials of the Arctic Council, Patrick Borbey; David Hayes, deputy secretary of the U.S. Department of Interior; and Mead Treadwell, lieutenant governor of the State of Alaska.

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20130417_arctic_energy_transcript

The Black Swan: The Big Thaw

Elizabeth Ferris — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0500

Brookings Foreign Policy experts have come together to create a series of policy memos addressing the “big bets”—opportunities to strengthen President Obama’s second term—and “black swans,” the low probability, high-impact events that could derail the administration’s priorities. These were released at a public event on Thursday, January 17. Senior Fellow Elizabeth Ferris says a “Black Swan” is dramatic climate change and how the Obama administration will respond and take leadership in reducing carbon emissions causing global warming.

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The Black Swan: The Big Thaw

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Elizabeth Ferris

Climate-Induced Displacement of Alaska Native Communities

Robin Bronen — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0500

Executive Summary:

Alaska has warmed twice as fast as the global average during the past half-century, and temperatures are projected to rise 1.5-5° F (1-3 ºC) by 2030 and by 5-18° F (3-6.5 ºC) by 2100. Less sea ice covers the Arctic Ocean today than at any time in recent geologic history. At the same time, the land itself is also affected by temperature increases. Permanently frozen subsoil – permafrost – keeps the land intact and habitable along the northwestern Alaskan coast, but is melting. These environmental phenomena are resulting in accelerated rates of erosion and flooding which damage or destroy infrastructure and threaten the livelihoods and well-being of people residing throughout Alaska.

Since 2003, federal and state governments have documented these climate change impacts on Alaskan communities and the need for immediate action to protect populations. State and federal government agencies are struggling to respond to the enormous new needs of these communities. Despite spending millions of dollars, the traditional methods of erosion control and flood protection have not been able to protect some communities. For several Alaska Native communities, protection in place is not possible and community relocation is the only adaptation strategy that can protect them from accelerating climate change impacts. This paper presents a brief overview of climate change in Alaska, examines the impact of climate change on Alaska Native rural villages, and analyzes the state, federal and community responses.

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Climate-Induced Displacement of Alaska Native Communities

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Robin Bronen

Image Source: © Ho New / Reuters

A Complex Constellation: Displacement, Climate Change and Arctic Peoples

Elizabeth Ferris — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0500

The Arctic is home to unique human communities whose livelihoods and communities are increasingly challenged by the effects of climate change. Melting ice, stronger storms, growing erosion, thawing permafrost, more unpredictable weather and other direct effects of climate change are already impacting indigenous communities. But warming temperatures and melting ice are also making possible more commercial, transport and military initiatives in the region. New sea routes are being opened, new enterprises are being planned, new drilling and mining licenses are being issued and new tourist destinations are opening up. The movement of more people to the Arctic region will have significant effects on indigenous populations, cultures and livelihoods.

What will be the impact and potential impact of climate change on the mobility of indigenous communities in the Arctic region. Will indigenous populations be forced to move elsewhere because of the effects of climate change? Will they be relocated by governments to protect them from an increasingly unstable environment – or perhaps for other less altruistic reasons?

This paper is part of a collaborative research project within the Foreign Policy program of the Brookings Institution which is examining issues and trends related to the Arctic including energy exploration, maritime security and governance. This study seeks to complement those efforts by focusing specifically on indigenous communities – the people who inhabit (albeit sparsely) the northernmost reaches of planet earth. It draws on three research papers commissioned for this project which examine the effects of climate change on human mobility in three Arctic countries: Alaska Native communities, the Russian North and the Scandinavian Arctic.

The Arctic is inhabited by approximately 4 million people[1] of whom 400,000 are considered indigenous. Approximately two-thirds of the total population in the Arctic lives in relatively large settlements, although indigenous peoples living in circumpolar countries is characterized by small, widely separated communities.

Based on study of the relationship between the Arctic’s indigenous communities, climate change, and different forms of mobility, a few general observations can be drawn:

Mobility is not new for Arctic peoples. Migration for livelihoods – whether hunting or reindeer herding – has been central to the indigenous way of life for centuries.
Limitations to mobility occurred long before climate change appeared on the international agenda, particularly as the result of indigenous groups settling in villages in order to access education and other public services.
Climate change is likely to affect the mobility of Arctic peoples in many different ways. In some cases, they may be forced to relocate because their habitats are no longer habitable (as in the Alaskan cases examined by Robin Bronen). In some cases, their traditional livelihoods will become more difficult (e.g. reindeer in Scandinavian Arctic and cattle among the Viliui Sakha in the Russian North will have more difficulties in finding food in winter months.) Changing fish and animal species (often with knock-on effects) may mean different patterns of hunting. Traditional transportation is likely to change as sea ice melts.
But people in the Arctic will likely be influenced as much by new realities made possible by global warming as they are by melting permafrost and melting sea ice. With “longer ice-free periods now available to explore for hydrocarbons, a new scramble for oil and gas could occur” especially if the price of oil and gas increase and new technological developments take place.[2] In 2009, 15 percent of petroleum production came from onshore Arctic production. But 30 percent of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13 percent of world’s undiscovered oil is in the Arctic.[3] New maritime routes in the Arctic raise new issues about sovereignty and offer expanded opportunities for military operations. The stakes are getting higher for control of territory in the Arctic and indigenous communities should engage in these discussions – and not just on issues of maintaining traditional lifestyles.
The issue of adaptation to climate change is an intensely political issue. A focus on climate change adaptation “downplays the fact that climate adaption is to make societal choices informed by many other concerns and challenges than climate.” The question is who in the Arctic will make these choices.[4]

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[1] Stefansson Arctic Institute, Arctic Human Development Report, 2004. http://www.svs.is/ahdr/AHDR%20chapters/English%20version/Chapters%20PDF.htm. Note that using a broader definition of the circumpolar North, the population is estimated at 13.1 million.

[2] Ebinger and Zambetakis, op. cit., p. 1216.

[3] Bruce Jones et al, op. cit., p. 3.

[4] Sejersen, op. cit., p. 239.

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A Complex Constellation: Displacement, Climate Change, and Arctic Peoples

Authors

Elizabeth Ferris

Image Source: © Reuters Staff / Reuters

Climate Change and Human Mobility in Indigenous Communities of the Russian North

Susan A. Crate — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0500

Executive Summary:

This paper explores the effects of climate change on human mobility (displacement, migration, and planned relocations) in the Russian part of northern Eurasia where Russia claims most of the continuous Arctic shoreline, with a particular emphasis on indigenous communities. The paper is based on almost twenty years of longitudinal research with Viliui Sakha, one indigenous group of northeastern Siberia with a specific focus on local perceptions and responses to the effects of global climate change.

In-depth examination of the effects of climate change on the Viliui Sakha, followed by a survey of responses to climate change and relocation within the Sakha Republic, is supplemented by three ‘mini-case studies’ of other indigenous groups in the Russian North: the Nenets, the Dolgan and Nganasan of the Taimyr Peninsula and the Chukotka-Chukchi and Siberian Yupik. The study then turns to the response of indigenous peoples and the Russian government to these changes and concludes with recommendations for indigenous groups, the government and other groups.

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Climate Change and Human Mobility in Indigenous Communities of the Russian North

Authors

Susan A. Crate

Image Source: © Reuters Staff / Reuters

Climate Change and Displacement for Indigenous Communities in Arctic Scandinavia

Ilan Kelman and Marius Warg Næss — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0500

Executive Summary:

This paper explores anthropogenic climate change influencing displacement/migration for the Saami in Finland, Norway and Sweden near or above the Arctic Circle. Norway plays a large role throughout this discussion because (i) most residents in Arctic Scandinavia live in Norway, (ii) most indigenous peoples in Arctic Scandinavia live in Norway, and (iii) Norway is the only country of the three which has Arctic coastline.

The Saami have inhabited Scandinavia since the first human arrivals in the region as the glaciers retreated from the last ice age. Today, the Saami number approximately 50,000-100,000, although no formal censuses based on ethnicity exist. This means that defining who is Saami for statistical purposes is not always straightforward and often refers to those either speaking or having ancestors who spoke the Saami language.

Approximately 50-60 percent of the Saami live in Norway, 30-40 percent in Sweden, 10 percent in Finland, and under 4 percent in Russia. While the Saami inhabit almost all of Arctic Scandinavia, they are not exclusively an Arctic people, with their ranges extending as far south as approximately 62°N along the Norway-Sweden border. As rough estimates, approximately 900,000 people inhabit Arctic Scandinavia of whom perhaps 50,000-90,000 are Saami.

Saami are frequently associated with reindeer husbandry as a livelihood, but currently only around 10 percent of Saami are currently actively involved in it (Josefsen, 2010). Migration has long been a way of life in Arctic Scandinavia and the Saami reindeer herders have been nomadic or semi-nomadic for centuries. Mobility is central to the nomadic reindeer herding practiced by many Saami, but artificial boundaries such as private property, roads, and railways can inhibit the needs and routes of traditional mobility. It should also be noted that non-Saami migrated into the region over millennia and indigenous and non-indigenous peoples from around the world continue to migrate into the region.

In Norway, national policy (Government of Norway, 2009b) further supports people living throughout the country by providing financial incentives and supporting public services. For example, during the 1970s, most of the reindeer herders had moved into modern houses in central areas in the northernmost county of Finnmark due to official policies. The policy requiring nine years of schooling for children also made it impossible for whole families to live close to their herds year-round (Riseth and Vatn, 2009). Government policies made it possible for reindeer herders to attain a so-called “modern” standard of living in Norway (Nilsen and Mosli, 1994; Riseth and Vatn, 2009) which consequently changed their migratory lifestyle.

As largely rural areas, Arctic Scandinavia in all three countries experiences significant levels of outmigration. In particular young people often leave the region in search of education, larger settlements, or more varied livelihoods. Migration is often initially seen as temporary (for example, for university or independent travel) but may become long-term or permanent.

In fact, migration in Arctic Scandinavia displays all forms found in the mobility literature, including: in-migration, out-migration, and circular migration; and both temporary and permanent migration. Migration within the region also occurs, with people from one Arctic Scandinavian settlement easily moving to another for family or livelihood reasons, irrespective of national boundaries, facilitated by the fact that Scandinavians are permitted to live and work in other Scandinavian countries.

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Climate Change and Displacement for Indigenous Communities in Arctic Scandinavia

Authors

Ilan Kelman
Marius Warg Næss

Image Source: © Reuters Staff / Reuters

Arctic Indigenous Peoples, Displacement, and Climate Change: Tracing the Connections

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 10:00:00 -0500

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January 30, 2013
10:00 AM - 11:30 AM EST

Falk Auditorium
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

For thousands of years, Arctic peoples have migrated in response to changing environmental conditions. But today climate change is putting unprecedented pressure on those indigenous communities. Temperatures are rising much faster in the Arctic than in the rest of the world, raising questions about the extent to which significant numbers of indigenous people will move away from their traditional habitats and whether they will be able to maintain their cultures and livelihoods. For the 400,000 indigenous people in the Arctic these are not only questions of adaptation but also of culture and survival.

On January 30, the Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement explored the relationship between climate change and population movements in the Arctic through three recent case studies. Robin Bronen, executive director of Alaska Immigration Justice Project, spoke about her research on indigenous communities and resettlement in Alaska. Susan A. Crate, associate professor at George Mason University, discussed indigenous communities in Siberia. Ilan Kelman and Marius Warg Næss, senior research fellows at the Center for Environmental and Climate Research, Oslo (CICERO) presented their research on the impact of climate change on indigenous inhabitants of the Scandinavian Arctic via video. Senior Fellow Elizabeth Ferris, co-director of the Project on Internal Displacement, provided introductory remarks and moderated the discussion.

Read the related paper and case studies:

A Complex Constellation: Displacement, Climate Change and Arctic Peoples
Elizabeth Ferris
Climate-Induced Displacement of Alaska Native Communities
Robin Bronen
Climate Change and Human Mobility in Indigenous Communities of the Russian North
Susan A. Crate
Climate Change and Displacement for Indigenous Communities in Arctic Scandinavia
Ilan Kelman and Marius Warg Næss

Event Presentations

Ilan Kelman Presentation

Marius Warg Næss Presentation

Robin Bronen Presentation

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Arctic Indigenous Peoples, Displacement, and Climate Change: Tracing the Connections

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Transcript (.pdf)

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Big Bets and Black Swans: Foreign Policy Challenges for President Obama’s Second Term

Thu, 17 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0500

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The Big Thaw

Elizabeth Ferris — Thu, 17 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0500

A significant rise in sea levels throughout the world would have particularly devastating impacts on the concentrated urban populations living in low-lying coastal areas, affecting the local economy, politics, community life and security. Elizabeth Ferris wrote this memorandum to President Obama as part of Big Bets and Black Swans: A Presidential Briefing Book. Watch her related Q+A video.

What if climate change generates a dramatic melting in the Arctic ice cap?
Are countries ready to deal with international migration due to climate change?
Where should climate change fit in President Obama’s foreign policy agenda?

Download Memorandum (pdf) | Download the Presidential Briefing Book (pdf)

TO: President Obama

FROM: Elizabeth Ferris

Global warming is occurring at a faster pace than predicted by scientists. Temperatures are rising, icecaps and glaciers are melting, and extreme weather events are becoming both more frequent and more intense. Last fall, the National Snow and Ice Data Center documented a record low of the level of Arctic sea ice – a figure 49 percent lower than the 1979-2000 average. If these trends continue, the results will be far-reaching for life on this planet. But if the warming accelerates dramatically and if polar ice melts even faster, the results could be catastrophic. This could occur if the Greenland ice sheet or the West Antarctica Ice Sheet (WAIS) collapses, triggering a significant rise in sea levels throughout the world with particularly devastating impacts on populations living in low-lying coastal areas. Although the effects of climate change are likely to be long-term and the worst effects will probably neither be experienced in your presidency nor even in your lifetime, the future is inherently unpredictable. Climate change is already affecting communities around the world. It is likely to produce devastating consequences whether in the near or distant future. Taking bold steps now to address climate change offers an opportunity for you not only to leave a legacy that will impact future generations but also an opportunity to address current problems resulting from the effects of climate change.

Recommendations:

• Raise the priority of climate change on your foreign policy agenda, in particular by re-vitalizing negotiations over a post-Kyoto treaty. The Doha round of negotiations, which ended last month, was disappointing. Countries are further away today than they were a year ago on reducing emissions. U.S. leadership can reverse current trends of inadequate global commitment to reduce greenhouse gases.

• Support measures that will enable communities and countries to adapt to the most egregious effects of climate change. On the international level this means supporting and leading the difficult discussions around climate finance and using U.S. aid to support government planning to respond to the effects of climate change, including financial assistance to encourage communities to stay where they are as well as to plan for the relocation of communities whose homes will no longer be habitable.

• Support effective multilateral action to increase both mitigation and adaptation measures. Use your influence with the multilateral development banks to encourage more attention to disaster riskreduction measures in development planning. Work with international agencies and legal experts to devise an international legal regime for dealing with the expected increase in trans-border migration. It is easier to put a system in place before a crisis is at hand.

• Strengthen domestic efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change by reducing carbon emissions and enhancing domestic capacity to prepare for, respond, and recover from sudden-onset natural disasters.

Background:

Since the first report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990, the projections about the impact of global warming have become direr. From projecting the widespread consequences of a global rise in temperature of 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, current projections are that the rise in temperature will double to 4 degrees Celsius. The seas are rising 60 percent faster than predicted by the IPCC. The Greenland ice sheet is shrinking twice as fast as estimated by the IPCC and is losing mass at about five times the rate it was in the early 1990s. If the Greenland ice sheet were to melt completely, global sea rise could reach seven meters. And the consequences of global warming go far beyond sea-level rise. For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warns that the conditions that led to the 2011 Texas drought are 20 times more likely to occur now than in the 1960s as a result of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations.

Although climate change will have many negative effects in different parts of the world, including prolonged droughts, reduction in arable land, declining agricultural productivity, and increased flooding due to more extreme weather events, the impact of sea level rise perhaps best illustrates the potential dangers. Throughout the world, more people are living in coastal areas as the result of population growth, urbanization and government policies. Presently 10 percent of the world’s population — 600 million people — live in low-elevation coastal zones and the percentage is growing. Sixty-five percent of the world’s megacities (those over 5 million) are located in these coastal areas. A rise in sea level of even a meter would have major implications for coastal populations; if sea levels were to rise by several meters, the consequences would be catastrophic. Most obviously, sea level rise will submerge land, causing countries to lose physical territory. The areas expected to experience the largest land loss by 2030 are the Arctic Ocean coasts of Canada, Alaska, Siberia and Greenland as well as coastal areas of Pakistan, Sri Lanka, southeast Indonesia, and eastern Africa. In the United States, particularly vulnerable areas include the coastal areas of the east and west coasts and the Gulf of Mexico.

Rising sea levels will affect economics, politics, community life and security. For example, the mega-deltas of Asia are the food baskets of the region, and the impact of a sea level rise on food security will be considerable. But perhaps the most significant impact of climate change in general and rising sea levels in particular will be the displacement of people. Migration is a complex process driven by a range of economic, social and political factors but it is becoming clear that environmental factors will increasingly influence migration. In Bangladesh, for example, moving to cities has become a common coping strategy in the face of flooding. One of the IPCC background studies posits that a 40-centimeter rise in sea levels will affect 100 million people. As hundreds of millions of people in Africa and Asia are at risk of flooding by 2060, it is likely that many will move to cities such as Dhaka and Lagos that are located in coastal flood plain areas. In other words, the trend is for people to migrate to areas of greater — not lesser — environmental vulnerability. At the same time, as the UK’s authoritative Foresight study concludes, those who are able to migrate may well be the lucky ones; those who are unable to move may be the most vulnerable.

Large-scale migration has many consequences. If sea level rise renders small island states uninhabitable (which is likely to occur long before the islands are actually submerged by the seas), issues of sovereignty, legal status, and responsibility will present the world with huge challenges. Most climate change-induced migration or displacement will be internal, placing strain on infrastructure and pressure on governments to deliver services. Political instability, conflict and poor governance exacerbate these problems. Climate change is a threat multiplier, often affecting those countries least able to respond appropriately. How will governments cope with the movement of large numbers of people from coasts toward inland areas? There is also a possibility that some, perhaps many, will seek to move to other countries because of the effects of climate change. The international legal system is unprepared to deal with trans-border movements triggered by environmental factors or disasters, since the displaced do not fall under the 1951 Refugee Convention (unless they leave because of political turmoil exacerbated by climate change.)

Projecting possible massive displacement from climate change is complicated by the difficulty of comprehending the interrelationships between the different effects of climate change, for example, changes in fish stocks and coral reefs brought about by the acidification of the world’s oceans; changing patterns of disease; changing habitats for animals and plants; the intersection of deforestation and increasingly arid climates in some parts of the world. Delicate ecological balances are changing in ways that are as yet poorly understood. Similarly, there is much we do not know about the dynamic nature of the effects of climate change. For example, some scientists are reporting that the melting of Arctic ice itself is releasing more carbon into the atmosphere, increasing global warming which will in turn increase the rate of Arctic ice melt.

Most scientists have observed that the climate is becoming warmer and that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. While it is impossible to attribute any single weather event, such as Hurricane Sandy, to climate change, the global trends clearly demonstrate an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. These trends are likely to intensify. The interaction between increasing extreme weather events and other effects of climate change – such as increased erosion, acidification of the seas, desertification, sea-level rise – is also likely to lead to large-scale movement of people.

Conclusion:

There are certainly obstacles and pitfalls to making climate change a centerpiece of your foreign policy. Perhaps the projections of scientists are too pessimistic and the effects of global warming will not be as serious as now thought. Perhaps you will be unable to marshal the necessary political support to enact necessary legislation. Perhaps other governments will fail to rally to your leadership and perhaps the negotiations over climate change mitigation and adaptation will widen, not narrow the North- South divide. It is certainly understandable that you would want to put aside these longer-term challenges and focus on more immediate economic issues. But a climate catastrophe could be lurking around the corner.

Unless urgent action is taken now, the effects of climate change on life on this planet and on life in the United States will increase. Climate change is a domestic, foreign policy, security, development, human rights, and intergenerational justice issue. Preparing better for climate change disasters at home and abroad is a good short-term prophylactic. But making serious and sustained efforts to reduce global warming can solidify America’s present leadership in the world. It can lay the foundation for the country’s sustainable future development. It can address the causes of future humanitarian crises and alleviate future human suffering. It can be a legacy issue for the Obama administration that will impact the world for generations.

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The Black Swan: The Big Thaw

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The Black Swan: The Big Thaw

Authors

Elizabeth Ferris

Image Source: © Adrees Latif / Reuters

Norway’s Oil and Gas Policy and the Arctic

Fri, 09 Nov 2012 12:00:00 -0500

Event Information

November 9, 2012
12:00 PM - 1:00 PM EST

Falk Auditorium
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

In June 2012, Norway’s Ministry of Petroleum and Energy announced its most recent licensing round for oil and gas exploration blocks. Of the 86 blocks on offer, 72 were in the Barents Sea, north of the Arctic Circle. The concentration of exploration blocks in the Norwegian Arctic underscores the extent to which the country views the Arctic as critical to its future as a leading energy provider.

On November 9, the Energy Security Initiative at Brookings hosted Ola Borten Moe, Norway’s minister for Petroleum and Energy for a discussion of Norway’s investment in Arctic oil and gas exploration and production. He also addressed Norway’s perspective on the importance of the Arctic as the next global energy frontier.

Vice President Martin Indyk, director of Foreign Policy at Brookings, provided introductory remarks. Senior Fellow Charles Ebinger, director of the Energy Security Initiative, moderated a discussion with Minister Borten Moe.

Outlaw of the Sea: The Senate Republicans' UNCLOS Blunder

Thomas Wright — Tue, 07 Aug 2012 00:00:00 -0400

When U.S. Senators Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio), both vice presidential hopefuls, recently declared their opposition to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, they virtually guaranteed that it would be dead on arrival if it were sent to the Senate. A group of 34 senators, including Ayotte and Portman and led by Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), is now on the record promising to vote against UNCLOS, which is enough to make getting the two-thirds majority necessary for ratification impossible.

UNCLOS was first negotiated 30 years ago. But back then, U.S. President Ronald Reagan objected to it because, he argued, it would jeopardize U.S. national and business interests, most notably with respect to seabed mining. A major renegotiation in 1994 addressed his concerns, and the United States signed. Now, the U.S. Navy and business community are among UNCLOS' strongest supporters. So, too, was the George W. Bush administration, which tried to get the treaty ratified in 2007 but failed due to Republican opposition in the Senate.

Today's opponents, including Ayotte, DeMint, and Portman, focus on two issues. First, they argue, the treaty is an unacceptable encroachment on U.S. sovereignty; it empowers an international organization -- the International Seabed Authority -- to regulate commercial activity and distribute revenue from that activity. Yet sovereignty is not a problem: During the 1994 renegotiation, the United States ensured that it would have a veto over how the ISA distributes funds if it ever ratified the treaty. As written, UNCLOS would actually increase the United States' economic and resource jurisdiction. In fact, Ayotte, DeMint, and Portman's worst fears are more likely to come to pass if the United States does not ratify the treaty. If the country abdicates its leadership role in the ISA, others will be able to shape it to their own liking and to the United States' disadvantage.

Read the full article at foreignaffairs.com »

Authors

Thomas Wright

Publication: Foreign Affairs

Image Source: Reuters

@ Brookings Podcast: The Arctic as an Emerging Market

Bruce Jones — Fri, 29 Jun 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Climate change and the search for resources have turned the Arctic into an emerging market and an important trade route. Senior Fellow Bruce Jones, director of the Managing Global Order project, says that the top of the world poses possibilities for international tensions among interested nations claiming sovereignty, but at least so far, no serious conflicts have emerged.

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Bruce Jones: Arctic Region’s Importance for Trade, Transit and Energy Is Increasing

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Bruce Jones

Arctic Issues Reinforce Case for Senate to Ratify Law of the Sea Treaty

Bruce Jones — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 14:47:00 -0400

President Obama is urging the Senate to ratify the Law of the Sea Treaty, an accord that governs international waterways and helps countries manage maritime disputes. The U.S. is the only major country that hasn’t ratified the treaty, which administration official say would bolster national security, help create jobs and facilitate oil exploration. Opponents argue that the treaty would require the U.S. to forfeit certain royalties and would undermine the nation’s sovereignty in waterways around the world. Senior Fellow Bruce Jones, director of the Managing Global Order project, says it’s time that the U.S. Senate ratify the accord.

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Senate Should Approve Law of the Sea Treaty

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Bruce Jones

The Challenges and Opportunities of Arctic Energy and Resources Development

Tue, 12 Jun 2012 13:00:00 -0400

Event Information

June 12, 2012
1:00 PM - 5:00 PM EDT

Falk Auditorium
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, DC 20036

The Arctic is emerging as an important region in global affairs and a promising frontier for energy development. With an estimated 25 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas reserves, and with climate change making shorter maritime routes through Arctic waters possible, the region is attracting increased attention for its commercial potential. However, the effects of climate change and increased human activity in the region are likely to pose important challenges to its fragile ecosystem and indigenous communities.

On June 12, the Energy Security Initiative at Brookings hosted a discussion marking the start of an 18-month research project on the challenges and opportunities of Arctic development. Panelists discussed the various international approaches to Arctic energy and natural resource development as well as energy and natural resource development in Alaska.

After each panel, participants took audience questions.

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Transcript

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20120612 arctic energy uncorrected transcript

Participants

Panelists

Jim Ayers

President

Julie Gourley

Senior Arctic Official

Peter Harrison

Director of the School of Policy Studies

Carlos Pascual

Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs

Alexander Pelyasov

Director, Center for Northern and Arctic Economies

Steve Phelps

Manager, Exploration and Appraisal

Amy Sparck Dobmeier

Senior Advisor, Government and Community Affairs

Chill Out: Why Cooperation is Balancing Conflict Among Major Powers in the New Arctic

Andrew Hart, Bruce Jones and David Steven — Wed, 30 May 2012 14:15:00 -0400

Editor’s Note: In this report, the authors address the Arctic’s growing strategic relevance and conflict dynamic; offer background on and assessment of the existing institutions, and examine ongoing risks. Ultimately, they conclude that the prospects for cooperation outstrip the potential for conflict and that the Arctic offers lessons for tackling evolving challenges in other regions.

INTRODUCTION

As the Cold War receded, so too did the strategic significance of the Arctic, once a zone of U.S.-Soviet contestation. In recent years, tensions have once again been rising. From the infamous planting of the Russian flag on the floor of the Arctic Ocean in 2007 to Secretary Clinton’s appearance at the May 2011 Arctic Council ministerial, states have turned their attention to the North. The drivers of this shift are rapidly melting ice and the consequent prospects for the development of energy resources; its facilitators have been innovating in extraction technologies and marine transportation systems to move cargoes of hydrocarbons and hard minerals along previously inaccessible sea routes. Rising oil prices in 2004-2008 generated investment resources.

These changes have created a complex and, to some, worrying political picture. Many fear the Arctic will see an intensifying battle for sovereign control and commercial advantage. While such a view may be “more alarmist than alarming,” insecurity in the far North has increased risks of political and military conflict and highlighted the need for a stable maritime security system to manage disputes and other security concerns.

The bleakest forecasts have overlooked positive developments in the region. Despite the Arctic’s dangerous mix of great power competition, unresolved territorial disputes, and increasingly accessible oil and gas reserves, there has to date been little actual discord. Unlike in the South China Seas, which faces a similar mix of uncharted energy resources and contested boundaries, Arctic states have pledged to solve disputes in an orderly process, managed the peaceful resolution of a major territorial conflict, and concluded a binding agreement to cooperate on search and rescue.

This is not to say there is no reason for worry. The most contentious issues are yet to be resolved. There is scope for strategic miscalculation, a loss of faith in multilateral processes that deliver unwelcome findings, or an environmental disaster triggering a spiral of mistrust.

The Arctic therefore emerges as a rich case study of current and potential areas of international cooperation and tension, with implications for energy security, global trade, global power politics, sustainable development, and climate change. In this paper, we first address the Arctic’s growing strategic relevance and its potential conflict dynamic. Second, we offer background on the existing institutions and legal regimes, assessing their strength and effectiveness, and then reviewing recent negotiations. Finally, we examine ongoing risks in the region, assessing their likely scale and evolution.

We conclude that—for now—the prospects for continued cooperation outstrip the potential for conflict among Arctic states, and that the Arctic offers lessons, and even elements of a model, for tackling evolving challenges in other regions.

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Authors

Andrew Hart
Bruce Jones
David Steven

The Geopolitics of Arctic Melt

Charles K. Ebinger and Evie Zambetakis — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 14:19:00 -0500

Evie Zambetakis presented the following paper at a conference at Chatham House in London on November 10, 2009.

Global climate change has catapulted the Arctic into the centre of geopolitics, as melting Arctic ice transforms the region from one of primarily scientific interest into a maelstrom of competing commercial, national security and environmental concerns, with profound implications for the international legal and political system.

The significance of an Arctic rendered increasingly accessible by the melting of ice as a result of rising global temperatures should not be underestimated. As the region opens to increased human activity such as traffic from commercial shipping, tourism, and oil and gas exploration, soot emitted by maritime vessels and operations will land on the ice. Greying of the icecap, as black carbon from incomplete hydrocarbon combustion lodges itself in snow and ice, causes what was once a reflective surface to absorb more sunlight, melt, and warm the water. The resulting dangerous feedback loop is part of an alarming phenomenon that is pushing the current drive for policies to slow down climate change.

Increasing water temperatures are changing the distribution of sea ice and having grave impacts on ice-dependent flora and fauna. In September 2009 nearly 3,500 walruses congregated on Alaska’s north-west coast off the Chukchi Sea because of reduced sea ice; the same happened in 2007 with over 6,000 walruses. Polar bears are likely to face extinction in less than 70 years as they lose their traditional breeding and hunting grounds to melting ice. Red foxes are migrating ever northwards and displacing smaller Arctic foxes. The list goes on.

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Authors

Charles K. Ebinger
Evie Zambetakis

Publication: International Affairs