Brookings: Topics - Agent-based Models

The Costs of Containing H1N1

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:39:10 GMT

The Center on Social and Economic Dynamics at Brookings has released a comprehensive report on the economic impact of closing schools and day care centers to help mitigate the infection rate of the H1N1 virus. Center director Joshua Epstein highlights some of the study’s findings and notes that the cost for such closures could be substantial.

H1N1 Containment: Economic Cost and Workforce Effects of School Closures

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Policymakers are looking at school closures to contain the spread of an H1N1 influenza outbreak. In the first comprehensive U.S. study of the economic cost of school and daycare center closures, the Center on Social and Economic Dynamics at Brookings finds that closing all schools in the United States for four weeks could cost up to $47 billion and lead to a reduction of up to 17% in key health care personnel.

How Computer Modeling Can Stem the Spread of Influenza

Tue, 01 Sep 2009 13:35:02 GMT

Experts are bracing for an extremely high H1N1 flu infection rate this fall and winter. Joshua Epstein says computer modeling can help the medical community and policy-makers predict which populations are most susceptible to infection, how great the infection rate will be and how to stem the spread of the virus.

Modelling to Contain Pandemics

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Joshua M. Epstein explains that agent-based computational models can capture irrational behaviour, complex social networks and global scale — all essential in confronting H1N1.

Psychometrics Society Keynote on Modeling in Psychology

Tue, 21 Jul 2009 00:00:00 GMT

William Dickens gave the keynote lecture to the International Meetings of the Psychometrics Society. He spoke on what psychologists could learn about modeling psychological phenomena from the way economists use models and illustrated it with his own work on cognitive ability.

Complex Systems Modeling for Obesity Research

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Obesity has grown rapidly into a major public health challenge in the United States and worldwide. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said that as many as one-third of Americans are obese. Ross Hammond explains how techniques from the field of complexity science can inform both scientific study of obesity and effective policies to combat it.

Containing the Spread of Swine Flu and Other Diseases through Dynamic Modeling

Thu, 30 Apr 2009 13:46:00 GMT

With cases of swine flu rising in the United States and around the world, health officials are taking action to contain the spread and severity of the disease. Brookings Fellow Ross Hammond discussed the artificial society models he has helped develop that can aid professionals in better understanding how to prepare for and react to epidemics.

How Computer Modeling Can Avert Pandemic Outbreaks

Mon, 22 Dec 2008 15:55:44 GMT

Brookings’s Center on Social and Economic Dynamics has pioneered a model that forecasts how infectious diseases like the flu spread. Center director Joshua Epstein says the Obama administration should use modeling to avert pandemic outbreaks and restore faith in the public health system.

Coupled Contagion Dynamics of Fear and Disease: Mathematical and Computational Explorations

Mon, 15 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMT

In classical mathematical epidemiology, individuals do not adapt their contact behavior during epidemics. They do not endogenously engage, for example, in social distancing based on fear. Yet, adaptive behavior is well-documented in true epidemics. Joshua M. Epstein, Jon Parker, Derek Cummings, and Ross A. Hammond explore the effect of including such behavior in models of epidemic dynamics.

Modeling Social Behavior

Wed, 26 Nov 2008 00:00:00 GMT

Joshua Epstein gave a presentation on why model social behavior during a NIH conference, which explored the field of social behavior modeling, identifying opportunities, challenges, and gaps in our collective knowledge. Participants explored the scope and direction of the field through presentations and facilitated discussion.

Why Model?

Fri, 31 Oct 2008 00:00:00 GMT

Based on a keynote address, Joshua M. Epstein discusses and challenges enduring misconceptions about modeling, offering sixteen reasons other than prediction to build a model.

Understanding Strategic Learning through Game Theory and Agent-Based Modeling

Sun, 13 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT

Peyton Young addresses his recent game theory and agent-based modeling work in the Presidential Address to the World Congress of the Game Theory Society at Northwestern University.

A Complex Systems Approach to Understanding and Combating the Obesity Epidemic

Tue, 17 Jun 2008 00:00:00 GMT

In his latest working paper, CSED Fellow Ross A. Hammond says that obesity is a substantial and growing public health crisis worldwide. Many of its features—breadth of scale, diversity in actors, and multiplicity of mechanisms—are hallmarks of a complex adaptive system. Thus, according to Hammond, the lessons and tools of complexity science can help us better understand and combat the obesity epidemic.

Agent-Based Modeling: New Methods in Estimating Impact

Tue, 15 Apr 2008 00:00:00 GMT

On April 15, 2008 CSED affilate Shubha Chakravarty presented a talk on agent-based modeling at the Gates Foundation Grand Challenge 9 Meeting in Kampala, Uganda. The meeting focused on new progress in developing bio-fortified staple crop species, yielding discussion of using agent-based modeling to study crop diseases and genetic drift of new plant varieties.

Artificial Society: Getting Clues on How a Pandemic Might Happen by Creating a Huge Model of the United States

Wed, 02 Apr 2008 00:00:00 GMT

With the possibility of a national or international emergency, people need to know how to best be prepared. Joshua M. Epstein discusses how agent-based computational modeling has the ability to create artificial societies to model human behavior in an emergency situation.

Q&A With Joshua Epstein on Computational Modeling

Wed, 19 Mar 2008 00:00:00 GMT

CSED Director and Economic Studies Senior Fellow Joshua Epstein explains his breakthrough computational modeling work, with a focus on how agent-based modeling can help explain human behavior as well as make strides in the public health field.

A Hybrid Epidemic Model: Combining the Advantages of Agent-based and Equation-based Approaches

Thu, 27 Dec 2007 00:00:00 GMT

With Feng Yu, Brookings Senior Fellow Joshua M. Epstein and Nonresident Fellows Georgiy V. Bobashev and D. Michael Goedecke introduce a hybrid Agent-based and Equation-based model that can dramatically save time and can better describe epidemiological processes involving human behavioral response.

A Flexible, Large-Scale, Distributed Agent Based Epidemic Model

Fri, 21 Dec 2007 00:00:00 GMT

Jon Parker describes a distributed agent-based epidemic model that is capable of easily simulating several hundred million agents and discusses the overall design of the model.

Agent-Based Modeling and Spatial Population Dynamics Workshop

Fri, 07 Dec 2007 12:00:00 GMT

Event Information:

December 07, 2007, 12:00 PM to 05:00 PM

The Brookings Center on Social and Economic Dynamics and the Metropolitan Policy Program jointly hosted an NICHD funded Agent Based Modeling and Spatial Population Dynamics Workshop at the Brookings Institution. Researchers from across the country attended the workshop to discuss current projects, to gain insight into agent-based modeling, and to unearth issues for future research collaboration.

A Complex Systems Approach to Understanding and Reversing the Obesity Epidemic

Thu, 08 Nov 2007 00:00:00 GMT

An event brought together top international obesity experts—from academia, government, industry, and non-profit—to work toward a comprehensive approach to the worldwide obesity pandemic. Brookings’s Ross Hammond discussed how insights and techniques pioneered at CSED can play a key role in facilitating an integrated approach.

Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations: Contagion, Social Influence, and Social Learning

Wed, 31 Oct 2007 00:00:00 GMT

H. Peyton Young analyzes the effect of incorporating heterogeneity into three broad classes of models -- contagion, social influence, and social learning.

Finding Optimal Agent-Based Models

Mon, 10 Sep 2007 00:00:00 GMT

CSED Working Paper # 49 by Ben Klemens (September 2007)

Exploring Price-Independent Mechanisms in the Obesity Epidemic

Thu, 30 Aug 2007 00:00:00 GMT

CSED Working Paper #48 by Ross A. Hammond and Joshua M. Epstein (August 2007)

Agent Based Modeling: Population Health from the Bottom Up

Fri, 13 Jul 2007 00:00:00 GMT

Presentation by Joshua M. Epstein (07/13/07)

Complex Systems Approaches to Population Health

Wed, 30 May 2007 00:00:00 GMT

Brookings' Senior Fellow Joshua M. Epstein joined scholars from across the country at the University of Michigan to explore how complex systems approaches can be used to understand the broad problems of population health.

A Genome-Wide Association Study Implicates Diacylglycerol Kinase Eta (DGKH) and Several Other Genes in the Etiology of Bipolar Disorder

Tue, 08 May 2007 00:00:00 GMT

Using high-throughput genotyping methods, CSED scholar Ben Klemens and a team of researchers helped identify genes linked to bipolar disorder.

The Possible and the Impossible in Multi-Agent Learning

Sun, 01 Apr 2007 00:00:00 GMT

Peyton H. Young surveys work on learning in games and delineates the boundary between forms of learning that lead to Nash equilibrium and forms that lead to weaker notions of equilibrium (or none at all).

Are We Born Prejudiced?

Tue, 13 Mar 2007 00:00:00 GMT

Article on Ross A. Hammond (03/17/07)

Pandemic Influenza and the Value of International Travel Restrictions

Fri, 01 Dec 2006 00:00:00 GMT

CSED Working Paper #46 by Joshua M. Epstein, D. Michael Goedecke, Feng Yu, Robert J. Morris, Diane K. Wagener, and Georgiy V. Bobashev (December 2006)

Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations

Fri, 01 Dec 2006 00:00:00 GMT

People may realize different benefits and costs from the innovation, or have different beliefs about its benefits and costs, hear about it at different times, or delay in acting on their information. Peyton H. Young analyzes the dynamics arising from different sources of heterogeneity in a completely general setting without placing parametric restrictions on the distribution of the relevant characteristics.

Social Influences and Smoking Behavior

Fri, 10 Feb 2006 00:00:00 GMT

The objectives of this project were to conduct a comprehensive study of social influences on smoking behavior using an agent-based modeling approach.

Firm Sizes: Facts, Formulae and Fantasies

Wed, 01 Feb 2006 00:00:00 GMT

CSED Working Paper No.44 by Robert Axtell (February 2006)

The Spread of Innovations through Social Learning

Thu, 01 Dec 2005 00:00:00 GMT

CSED Working Paper #43 by Peyton H. Young (December 2005)

Remarks on the Foundations of Agent-Based Generative Social Science

Fri, 01 Jul 2005 00:00:00 GMT

In this CSED Working Paper, Brookings Senior Fellow, Joshua Epstein, treats a variety of epistemological issues surrounding generative explanation in the social sciences, and discusses the role of agent-based computational models in generative social science.

Social Dynamics of Obesity

Sun, 01 May 2005 00:00:00 GMT

CSED Working Paper No. 40 by Mary A. Burk and Frank Heiland entitled "Social Dynamics of Obesity"

Social Dynamics: Theory and Applications

Fri, 01 Apr 2005 00:00:00 GMT

CSED Working Paper No. 39, by H. Peyton Young (April 2005)

Social Norms, Rules of Thumb and Retirement

Mon, 01 Nov 2004 00:00:00 GMT

CSED Working Paper No. 37 by Gary Burtless (November 2004)

Physician Social Networks and Geographic Variation in Medical Care

Tue, 01 Jul 2003 00:00:00 GMT

CSED Working Paper No. 33: Physician Social Networks and Geographic Variation in Medical Care

Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror: An Individual-Based Computational Approach

Sun, 01 Dec 2002 00:00:00 GMT

CSED Working Paper No. 31: Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror: An Individual-Based Computational Approach

Coordination in Transient Social Networks: An Agent-Based Computational Model on the Timing of Retirement

Sat, 01 May 1999 00:00:00 GMT

Coordination in Transient Social Networks: