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		<title>The American Dream Deferred</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cory Booker]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jun 2018 13:00:02 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[The AmericanDream Deferred by Senator Cory&nbsp;Booker The American Dream Deferred June 2018 My father was born in the small, segregated mountain town of Hendersonville, North Carolina, in 1936. Less than 100 years before his birth, enslaved black Americans were building Hendersonville’s Main&nbsp;Street. The son of a single mother, my dad grew up in poverty. When&hellip;<div style="clear:both;padding-top:0.2em;"><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/28/554845692/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/fblike20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/29/554845692/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay,https%3a%2f%2fc24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com%2finteractives%2f2018%2ftbe-201805%2fassets%2fdatavis%2fBooker_5.svg"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/pinterest20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/24/554845692/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/twitter20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/19/554845692/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/email20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/20/554845692/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/rss20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&nbsp;&#160;</div>]]>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By Cory Booker</p><div id="tbe-201805">
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<h1 class="header__title">The American
<br>Dream Deferred</h1>
<p>		<span class="header__author">by Senator Cory&nbsp;Booker</span>
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<p class="info">June 2018</p>
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<section class="first-chapter">
<p><em>My father was born in the small, segregated</em> mountain town of Hendersonville, North Carolina, in 1936. Less than 100 years before his birth, enslaved black Americans were building Hendersonville’s Main&nbsp;Street.</p>
</section>
<section>
<p>The son of a single mother, my dad grew up in poverty. When his mother became too ill to raise him, his grandmother stepped in until she too was no longer able to care for him, and then a local family took him in as their&nbsp;own.</p>
<p>With no source of financial support and no tradition of college in his family, my dad never considered going to college. But members of the local community, recognizing his potential, encouraged him to go. His church even sent around a collection plate to help pay his first semester’s tuition at North Carolina Central&nbsp;University.</p>
<p>Part-time jobs enabled him to work his way through school. When he graduated, he moved to Washington, D.C., where he was soon hired by IBM, becoming the company’s first black salesman in the Northern Virginia area. Before long, IBM identified my dad as one of its highest achieving salespeople globally, and promoted him to a job in its offices in New&nbsp;York.</p>
<figure id="family" class="widgets">
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/images/family.jpg" /><figcaption class="caption">Cary, Cary Sr., Cory, and Carolyn. <span class="caption__source">Booker Family&nbsp;photo</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>When he and my mom were looking to move to the New York City suburbs, real estate agents’ illegal racial steering policies nearly kept them from buying the house they wanted in an all-white neighborhood in New Jersey. It took a sting operation coordinated by the local Fair Housing Council, in which a white couple posed as my parents, to help break the persistent segregation in the town where I would eventually grow&nbsp;up.</p>
<p>For my dad the road to success was anything but easy. But by the time I was born, he had moved his family from poverty to the middle class within the span of a single&nbsp;generation.</p>
</section>
<section>
<h2>The broken&nbsp;bargain</h2>
<p>My dad, who died in 2013 just six days before I was elected to the United States Senate, was kind, funny, and creative. He was also talented, hardworking, and intelligent. He achieved so much because of who he was. But he made it clear to me that he was only as successful as he was because of all the help he received along the way&mdash;from the family who took him in, to the folks in his church who insisted that he go to college and helped him do so, to the activists from the Fair Housing Council who fought for him. At a time when corporate America was even more homogenous than it is today, his ability to get his foot in the door as a black man at IBM was made possible by the fact that the local Urban League, an advocacy organization in Washington, D.C., and others helped him, championed him, and opened that door for&nbsp;him.</p>
<p>My dad’s life was an exceptional testimony to the way the bargain&mdash;that if you work hard, sacrifice, and struggle, you can make it&mdash;should work. But he knew his experience was just that&mdash;exceptional&mdash;and he was anguished by our country’s inability to extend the bargain he believed in to all of her&nbsp;people.</p>
<div id="pullquote--1" class="widgets">
<blockquote class="pullquote pullquote--blue"><p><em>For my dad</em> the road to success was anything but easy. But by the time I was born, he had moved his family from poverty to the middle class within the span of a single&nbsp;generation.</p></blockquote></div>
<p>In the years before he passed away, my dad expressed concern to me that the bargain that had worked for him, the one he believed in, wasn’t becoming more real for more Americans, but instead moving further and further&nbsp;away.</p>
<p>In many ways, my dad was right. For millions of Americans&mdash;white and black, men and women, Latino and Asian, straight and LGBTQ, people from every walk of life and every religion&mdash;the barriers to opportunity and success are higher than&nbsp;ever.</p>
<p>The bargain&mdash;the one my dad and millions of other hardworking Americans made with America and that America kept with them&mdash;is&nbsp;broken.</p>
</section>
<section>
<h2>A 50-50 shot</h2>
<p>Newark, New Jersey, has been my home for more than two decades. For over seven of those years, I served as the city’s&nbsp;mayor.</p>
<p>When I was elected in 2006, my team and I were determined to make our city safer, more prosperous, and more successful than ever before. We prioritized public safety, and put reducing crime and violence at the center of our efforts. In 2008, our city went 43 days without a murder, the longest streak in 48 years. Four years into my administration in 2010, the city of Newark had its first calendar month without a murder since&nbsp;1966.</p>
<p>We worked to jumpstart Newark’s economy. Billions of dollars in new investments came into Newark, and these projects created jobs for local residents. For the first time in 50 years new residential high-rises broke ground downtown, for the first time in 40 years a new hotel opened in our city’s downtown, and for the first time in 20 years the city had new office towers and major supermarkets being built. By the 2010 Census, Newark’s population had grown instead of shrunk for the first time in 60&nbsp;years.</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--inline artwork--video">
					<video id="video--newark" preload muted loop poster="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/videos/27445669.jpg" src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/videos/27445669.mp4"></video><figcaption class="caption">Skyline of Newark, New Jersey, on the Passaic River. <span class="caption__source">Shutterstock</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>We recognized that Newark would never fulfill its potential as a city without activating the potential of its residents, so we pioneered innovative education solutions, a city parks and public space expansion, workforce and training programs, and reentry initiatives for residents returning from&nbsp;prison.</p>
<p>Along the way we addressed a major budget shortfall and made it through the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Our goal at each step was to reimagine our city so that opportunity, safety, and security could be a birthright for all of our&nbsp;residents.</p>
<p>The Central Ward of Newark is my home to this day, and I am deeply proud to see the incredible work that continues in my neighborhood and my city, with its rich history and inspiring people. But when I come home after a week working in Washington, I am immediately struck by the urgency of the challenges we continue to face, and the work that&nbsp;remains.</p>
<p>Even as the dawn of the Great Recession recedes, the median annual income in my neighborhood, according to the last Census, was less than $14,000. To put that in perspective, average annual rent plus utilities for a 650-square-foot, one-bedroom apartment in Newark is $12,000 a year. Throw in groceries, transportation to and from work, childcare, medical care, and other basic necessities, and you can imagine how hard it is for a typical family in my neighborhood to get&nbsp;by.</p>
<p>Much like my dad, my neighbors are hardworking, committed, and intelligent. They want the best for their families and they put in long hours, sometimes at multiple jobs, in search of a better life. They are people like Natasha&nbsp;Laurel.</p>
<p>I first met Natasha in 2014 at the IHOP on Bergen Street in downtown Newark. It was the morning of Election Day and I was on the ballot. I was anxious, excited&mdash;and hungry. A few members of my staff and I sat down at a booth, and Natasha introduced herself as our server. Over the course of our meal, I learned a lot about Natasha. A proud mother of three boys, she was raising them on her own, and she dreamed of one day becoming a counselor, a job where she could do what she loved: helping people in need, advising and empowering&nbsp;them.</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--pullquote" id="less-than-15-per-hour">
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/images/RTX130C5.jpg" /><figcaption class="caption">Marcos Oleynick protests in Los Angeles during a nationwide strike by fast-food workers in August 2013 to call for wages of $15 an hour.</figcaption><span class="caption__source">Reuters/Lucy&nbsp;Nicholson</span>
<br>
				</figure>
<blockquote class="pullquote pullquote--artwork pullquote--red"><p>Today, just over 40 percent of all American workers make less than <em>$15 an hour</em>&mdash;the equivalent of $30,000&nbsp;annually.</p></blockquote>
<p>Natasha also told us how challenging it was to balance her work and family life, all while juggling her bills on a server’s minimum wage income of $2.13 an hour, plus tips. Her take-home pay was unpredictable, fluctuating depending on what shifts she worked and how busy the restaurant was. Each month she tried to set aside money for the things her sons needed, like wireless internet access so they could do their homework, and clothes that could keep up with their growing bodies. But even though Natasha worked full time, she and her sons lived precariously on the edge, relying on food stamps to put dinner on the table. Meanwhile, like millions of other Americans, Natasha didn’t have paid family leave to care for her son who was regularly hospitalized for asthma. So, she was forced to take on the added stress of paying her bills and caring for her&nbsp;child.</p>
<p>For Natasha, the bargain is broken. The price of everything&mdash;housing, childcare, and prescription drugs, to name just a few expenses&mdash;is going up. Spending per person on prescription drugs has risen by an average of 5.6 percent per year since 2000. And childcare in New Jersey is now more expensive than public college tuition, costing an average of $11,534 per year to provide care for an infant and $9,752 for a year’s tuition at an in-state, four-year public college. A May 2018 report from United Way found that close to half of American families cannot afford a basic monthly budget that includes food, rent, childcare, and health&nbsp;care.</p>
<p>Americans like Natasha are working harder and longer hours and yet wages aren’t keeping up. While my dad and so many of his generation were able to find a good-paying job that allowed them to bring their families into the middle class, most of my neighbors find themselves working harder and harder but falling further and further behind. And this experience isn’t unique to my city. Today, just over 40 percent of all American workers make less than $15 an hour&mdash;the equivalent of $30,000 annually. And close to half of all Americans would have to sell something or borrow from family and friends in order to meet an unexpected $400&nbsp;expense.</p>
<p>And these inequities are compounded for Americans of color. Today, more than a decade since the Great Recession began, black Americans are the only racial group in America making less than they were in 2000. More than half of black workers are paid less than $15 an hour, and close to 60 percent of Latino workers make less than $15 an&nbsp;hour.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, someone growing up in my dad’s generation had a greater than 90 percent chance of earning more than his parents did. For young people born in the 1980s, just 50 percent will earn more than their parents. In the span of 40 years, we have become a nation in which, for half of our young people, the American Dream is falling out of&nbsp;reach.</p>
<figure id="datavis--5" class="widgets">
<h3>Percent of children earning more at age 30 than their parents, by birth&nbsp;year</h3>
<p>					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/datavis/Booker_5.svg" width="100%" alt="All Workers: 42.4%; Latino: 59.5%; Black: 54.1%; White: 36.4%" /><figcaption class="caption__source">Source: &ldquo;The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility since 1940,&rdquo; by Raj Chetty, David Grusky, Maximilian Hell, Nathaniel Hendren, Robert Manduca, and Jimmy Narang (NBER Working Paper 22910, December&nbsp;2016), redrawn by Brookings</figcaption></p></figure>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Wages are&nbsp;stuck</h2>
<p>Corporate profits are soaring; in fact, they are at their highest levels as a percentage of GDP in more than 85 years, and the net worth of each of the 25 biggest American corporations ranks alongside or higher than the GDP of entire countries. The unemployment rate had declined to 3.8 percent by Spring 2018, a number that has traditionally led to widely felt economic gains as employers compete to attract and retain&nbsp;workers.</p>
<p>But the reality is less rosy. The so-called &ldquo;U6&rdquo; measure of unemployment, which measures not just the unemployed but also the under-employed&mdash;those who want to work full-time but can’t&mdash;is nearly twice as high as the standard unemployment rate, and is even higher for certain populations, like African-Americans and some in rural areas. In addition, wages and salaries for American workers, as a share of our GDP, are near the lowest they’ve been in more than 60 years. This is true despite the fact that worker productivity&mdash;output per hour&mdash;skyrocketed by 74 percent between 1973 and 2016. In return for this massive productivity boost, the typical American worker saw an inflation-adjusted increase in hourly pay of just 12.5 percent over that same 43-year period. If the minimum wage from 1968&mdash;50 years ago&mdash;kept up with inflation and worker productivity, it would be nearly $20&nbsp;today.</p>
<p>Earlier this year, I met with a constituent whose job is to drive prepared meals from a kitchen to an airplane hangar for a major airline (an airline that enjoyed over one billion dollars in profits in 2017 alone). A 30-year veteran of the industry, he accepted a pay cut after the 9/11 attacks when airlines were tightening their belts. Since then he has barely seen a raise, and, nearing retirement, he makes less today than he did almost two decades ago in&nbsp;2000.</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--inline artwork--video">
					<video id="video--plane" preload muted loop poster="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/videos/24997820.jpg" src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/videos/24997820.mp4"></video><figcaption class="caption">An increasing number of service workers at airports aren’t employed by the airlines, but by contractors that won the lowest bid. <span class="caption__source">Shutterstock</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>Year by year and dollar by dollar, wage stagnation in communities like mine has chipped away at American workers’ well-being and upward mobility. The economic literature points to some of the reasons why: Technological advances in computing and other areas have advantaged highly skilled workers like engineers while leaving others behind&mdash;a phenomenon economists call &ldquo;skill-biased technical change.&rdquo; Automation has undoubtedly undermined or displaced many low- and middle-wage jobs, from secretarial work to accounting. And globalization has enabled businesses to shift to cheaper labor outside our borders, putting downward pressure on the wages of Americans whose jobs are under threat of displacement. In fact, today, the company that my dad worked for, IBM, has shifted more of its workforce to India than it has retained in the United States. Perhaps most dramatically, the steady decline of labor union participation and the attendant erosion of labor protections have led to a fundamental imbalance of power between workers and&nbsp;corporations.</p>
<p>But stagnant wages can also be traced directly to decisions and actions by corporations (like the airline my constituent works for), facilitated by careless&mdash;and at times purposefully negligent&mdash;policy. The result? American workers are often being shut out from participating in the gains they help&nbsp;create.</p>
<figure id="datavis--2" class="widgets">
<h3>Labor productivity and hourly compensation 1947–2017</h3>
<p>					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/datavis/Booker_2.svg" width="100%" alt="Percent growth from 1947 to 2017. Productivity: ~330%, Hourly compensation: ~200%" /><figcaption class="caption__source">Source: The Hamilton Project at&nbsp;Brookings</figcaption></p></figure>
<p>When corporate profits are at their highest levels in close to a century and worker productivity is at a 40-year high, but workers’ wages are the lowest they have been in over 60 years, the urgent question we need to ask, and answer, is why? And more important, how can we fix&nbsp;it?</p>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Short-termism fails the&nbsp;test</h2>
<p>The same year my dad was born, 1936, Franklin Delano Roosevelt was reelected to his second term as president. And it was during his second inaugural address that Roosevelt established a mandate for a nation emerging from the Great Depression: &ldquo;The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.&rdquo; Today, at a time when income inequality is the greatest it has been in close to a century, this is a test we are very clearly&nbsp;failing.</p>
<p>Across industry and financial markets, a culture of &ldquo;short-termism&rdquo; pervades: firms are increasingly focused on delivering immediate value for shareholders over making long-term sound investments including in, especially, their workers. In a survey conducted more than a decade ago, almost 80 percent of chief financial officers at 400 of America’s largest public companies said they would sacrifice the firm’s longer-term economic value in order to meet quarterly earnings expectations. Since then, the Great Recession and a range of other developments in our economy have added further pressures pushing corporate executives to squeeze every last dollar out of their operations. This mindset prizes quick returns over lasting&nbsp;investments.</p>
<p>Illustrative of this trend is the massive wave of stock buybacks in which companies, desperate to please shareholders, purchase their own shares in order to reduce supply in the market and drive up their prices. Before 1982, buybacks were generally considered to be a form of market manipulation, but in the decades since, as a result of a change in federal policy, they have become a staple of corporate decisionmaking. According to the economist William Lazonick, between 2003 and 2012 companies on the S&amp;P 500 dedicated 91 percent of their total net earnings to stock buybacks and corporate dividends. That left just 9 percent for raises for workers and other kinds of investment in the workforce, such as expanded&nbsp;training.</p>
<p>It hasn’t always been this way. Through the 1960s and 1970s, companies generally avoided buybacks and spent little more than a third of their net income on dividends. The retained earnings could be reinvested in a company in productive ways, such as capital projects, research and development, and employee pay and training. But particularly during the 1980s, the mindset of &ldquo;maximizing shareholder value&rdquo; came to dominate boardrooms across the&nbsp;country.</p>
<p>A growing number of activist shareholders are increasingly motivated by extracting short-term value rather than creating long-term returns. This is one reason why the average holding time for stocks has fallen from eight years in 1960 to eight months in&nbsp;2016.</p>
<blockquote class="pullquote pullquote--inline pullquote--red"><p>Before 1982, <em>buybacks</em> were generally considered to be a form of market manipulation, but in the decades since, as a result of a change in federal policy, they have become a staple of corporate&nbsp;decisionmaking.</p></blockquote>
<p>Compounding the problem, CEO compensation is largely based on stock options and other bonuses. CEOs are therefore heavily incentivized to use buybacks to boost share price and, in turn, their take-home pay. This appears to be especially true when their companies are not doing as well as expected. A recent study out of the University of Illinois found that companies projected to narrowly miss market forecasts for their earnings per share are significantly more likely to buy back shares than companies that are projected to narrowly exceed their earnings-per-share&nbsp;forecasts.</p>
<p>Some highly successful business owners are also critical of the focus on the short term. Ron Shaich, who founded the restaurant chain Panera and guided it to extraordinary heights before selling it to a private company late last year, has said that the &ldquo;greatest competitive advantage Panera had, the reason we produced these results we did, is because we could think long term. And the reason I took our company private is I&#8217;m increasingly worried about our ability to do that in a public market.&rdquo; Indeed, over the past 20 years, private companies&mdash;unencumbered by activist shareholders and executive compensation packages based on stock performance&mdash;have spent twice as much as public companies on &ldquo;economically productive&rdquo; investments like worker training and R&amp;D as a percentage of their overall&nbsp;revenue.</p>
<p>If there were any doubts about the effect of short-term pressures on corporate decisionmaking, take the recent case of American&nbsp;Airlines.</p>
<p>Last year, American announced, along with its $234 million in first-quarter net earnings, that it would give pay raises to its pilots and flight attendants. But American’s decision&mdash;an acknowledgment that paying its workers fairly is integral to its long-term success&mdash;was immediately derided by financial analysts. One analyst for Citigroup complained that &ldquo;labor is being paid first again, shareholders get leftovers,&rdquo; while Morgan Stanley downgraded American Airlines shares, going as far as to argue that it &ldquo;establishes a worrying precedent, in our view, both for American and the industry.&rdquo; In response to this market reaction, American Airlines’ shares lost more than 8 percent in market value&mdash;about $1.9 billion&mdash;over the next two days. The message from the financial sector to companies considering pay raises and other types of workforce investments was clear:&nbsp;don’t.</p>
<p>We’ve seen how, in only a matter of months, this shortsightedness has been accelerated. The passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December 2017 brought a sudden infusion of cash for corporations through a massive corporate tax rate cut. How have companies used the savings they reaped? So far, major corporations have gone on a buying spree, announcing nearly $500 billion and counting for programs to repurchase their own shares, further fueled by corporate debt, while spending just $6.9 billion on bonuses and wage increases for their employees. In other words, for every $1 given to workers, shareholders stand to gain&nbsp;$69.</p>
<p>Consider the case of Dollar General, the rapidly expanding retail chain with more than 120,000 employees at approximately 14,000 stores who helped produce $1.25 billion in net income in 2016. Dollar General pays its frontline sales associates as low as roughly $8 an hour on average, but in 2016 the company spent $990 million on stock buybacks. And Dollar General is no anomaly. In early 2018, Cisco, the networking company, announced a $25 billion stock buyback program, and five top pharmaceutical companies recently announced a combined $45 billion in buyback plans, all while drug prices continue to&nbsp;skyrocket.</p>
<p>In 1963, just a couple of years before my dad started working there, IBM CEO Thomas J. Watson Jr. wrote this in his book, <em>A Business and Its Beliefs: The Ideas That Helped Build IBM</em>: &ldquo;As businessmen, we think in terms of profits, but people continue to rank first.&rdquo; Can today’s largest corporations still credibly say the&nbsp;same?</p>
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</section>
<section>
<h2>A workforce &ldquo;broken into&nbsp;pieces&rdquo;</h2>
<p>The fervent focus on delivering short-term value to shareholders and meeting high-stakes quarterly earnings targets has driven many firms to fundamentally rethink their relationship with their&nbsp;employees.</p>
<p>Companies are increasingly turning to outsourcing, or &ldquo;contracting out,&rdquo; much of their workforce. As part of a no-stone-left-unturned effort to cut costs, companies contract out key business functions, auctioning them off to the lowest bidder. Rather than hiring employees directly, these firms increasingly rely on contractors, temp agencies, and franchises. The economist David Weil refers to this strategy as the &ldquo;fissuring&rdquo; of the workplace, because &ldquo;the employment relationship has been broken into&nbsp;pieces.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Workers at major hotel chains and airlines, the janitorial staff of major companies, and workers at major food service operators are less and less likely to be formal employees of the corporation they work for day to day. Instead, they are employed by a loose network of middlemen or independent contractors who each take a cut&mdash;at the employees’ expense. A study by the economists Larry Katz and Alan Krueger estimated that potentially <em>all</em> of the net job growth in the United States between 2005 and 2015 came from alternative work arrangements like temp agency workers, on-call workers, contract workers, and freelancers. Studies have found that outsourced and subcontracted workers’ wages suffer dramatically compared with their non-contracted peers. For example, contracted port trucking drivers make 30 percent less than their directly hired counterparts; for agricultural workers, it’s 40 percent less; and for fast food workers the difference can be as much as $6 an hour less than &ldquo;direct&nbsp;hires.&rdquo;</p>
<p>While contract workers and directly hired employees may share the same mission, purpose, and in many cases even the same uniforms, their experiences are widely divergent. Contract workers are monitored and controlled as closely as any direct employee, yet not only are they paid less, but at the hands of unscrupulous contractors they are often paid late even as they are forced to work in unsafe workplaces. And as workers overseen by some entity separate from the one they are servicing, their pathway for professional growth is virtually nonexistent. For many subcontracted workers at some of the country’s biggest companies, there is no corporate ladder, no moving up&mdash;just a very low ceiling. Forget about going from the mailroom to the boardroom. These workers are&nbsp;stuck.</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--pullquote" id="toolbox-factory">
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/images/RTS1N5CR.jpg" /><figcaption class="caption">Workers weld drawers at a toolbox factory in Illinois, February 2018.</figcaption><span class="caption__source">Reuters/Timothy&nbsp;Aeppel</span>
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<blockquote class="pullquote pullquote--artwork pullquote--red"><p>Studies have found that outsourced and subcontracted workers&#8217; wages <em>suffer dramatically</em> compared with their non-contracted&nbsp;peers.</p></blockquote>
<p>How common is this practice? Of the 20 largest global employers in 2017&mdash;a list that used to be dominated by companies like General Electric and Ford&mdash;five are now outsourcing and &ldquo;workforce solutions&rdquo; companies. And these five represent a growing trend. In 2000, there was just&nbsp;one.</p>
<p>In the airline industry, for example, this fissuring has created a workforce of what amounts to second-class workers. Between 1991 and 2015, the percentage of workers in air transport-related jobs who are employed by subcontractors and contractors has roughly doubled. Today, more often than not, the people who help airline travelers with their wheelchairs, prepare in-flight meals, clean the cabin after landing, and perform many other crucial functions aren’t actually employees of the airlines whose names are on their uniforms. Instead, they are employed by the contractor that managed to submit the lowest acceptable bid. The result: half of all subcontracted airline workers in the New York-New Jersey area rely on public assistance to get by, even though many work at least 40 hours a week. They are people like my constituent Carol&nbsp;Ruiz.</p>
<p>I’ve met with Carol several times over the last year. A mother of three, she works full-time at Newark Liberty International Airport as a subcontracted employee in support of several&nbsp;airlines.</p>
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<p>Every day she wakes up at 3:30 a.m. and goes to an airline catering service, where she helps prepare the food carts that flight attendants push up and down the aisle. She organizes the napkins, creamers, sugar, and cups that go on the beverage cart, cleans the glasses and silverware, and meticulously keeps track of the champagne that goes on the carts for first class passengers. For the first six years of her time working at Gate Gourmet, Carol received a four cents an hour raise each&nbsp;year.</p>
<p>At the end of the week she takes home $345&mdash;barely enough to cover the fair-market rate for a modest two-bedroom rental in Newark. Meanwhile, airline CEO pay operates at several hundred times that scale. CEOs at nine publicly traded airlines received an average compensation of $7.8 million in 2016, and the highest earner took home $18.7&nbsp;million.</p>
<p>Labor violations in subcontracting jobs like the one Carol does are rampant, but when they occur, major companies are able keep them at arm’s length. Before Carol and her colleagues unionized, she never had a steady shift, and she never received sick days, vacation days, or paid holidays&mdash;despite working for some of the highest-profile, most popular airlines in the country and the world. Unionizing helped Carol and her colleagues win basic workplace protections and a small raise&mdash;but it’s still not&nbsp;enough.</p>
<p>In a recent conversation Carol shared that her husband and children made the gut-wrenching decision to forgo health insurance&mdash;because they didn’t have enough money to insure all of them. They wanted Carol, who had been diagnosed with cancer and underwent chemotherapy a few years back, to be the one to have insurance, in case her cancer&nbsp;returned.</p>
<p>Together, Carol and her husband make about $700 a week&mdash;too much to qualify for public assistance programs, but too little to get by. Carol shared that her husband will often try to work overtime on Saturdays so they have a little more room in their budget for groceries, electric, rent, gas, and the medicine she needs to take. Carol’s daughter is currently in college. Inspired by her mother’s struggle with cancer, she is studying to become a nurse. Carol is currently looking for a part-time job in addition to her full-time&nbsp;work.</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--inline">
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/images/119855190.jpg" /><figcaption class="caption">At Gate Gourmet&#8217;s 110,000 square-feet facility near Dulles International Airport, 650 employees prepare, pack, and ship about 18,000 meals to planes around the clock. <span class="caption__source">Getty Images/Astrid&nbsp;Riecken</span></figcaption></figure>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Concentrated power, concentrated&nbsp;profits</h2>
<p>Rising corporate concentration tells another part of the story behind stagnant wages. Across the economy, the largest companies are taking over an ever greater share of the market&mdash;conducting mergers, acquiring other companies, and squeezing smaller competitors out. According to a 2016 study from the Levy Economics Institute at Bard College, the years between 1990 and 2013 saw the most sustained period of merger activity in American corporate history, with the concentration of corporate assets more than doubling during this period. The same study also found that the 100 largest companies in the United States now control one-fifth of all corporate assets. Another survey analyzed hundreds of U.S. industries and found that the top four companies in each industry expanded their share of revenues from 26 percent of the industry total in 1997 to 32 percent in&nbsp;2012.</p>
<p>A growing body of evidence suggests that the spread of this corporate concentration throughout multiple industries&mdash;from agriculture and technology to retail&mdash;has helped create a labor market in which workers are unable to negotiate with employers to translate their productivity and value into the wages they deserve. Wages are going down as a&nbsp;result.</p>
<p>Corporate concentration in American agriculture, for example, has created what has come to resemble a feudal state, in which small family farmers are given the choice between competing with enormous corporations or working for them through increasingly one-sided contracts. In the poultry industry, just four companies now control 60 percent of the market. As a result, individual poultry farmers have been driven out of business, and are forced to take on the costs and risks of raising chickens for the parent company without any guarantee of fair&nbsp;compensation.</p>
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					<video id="video--field" preload muted loop poster="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/videos/29616847.jpg" src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/videos/29616847.mp4"></video><figcaption class="caption">Corporate concentration in agriculture creates a labor market that forces small family farmers to compete with corporate farms or enter into one-sided contracts with them. <span class="caption__source">Shutterstock</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>A study by José Azar, Ioana Marinescu, and Marshall Steinbaum shows the impact of concentration on workers’ wages in other fields. Using data from Careerbuilder.com, the largest online job board in the U.S., they found that the most concentrated markets saw a 15 to 25 percent decline in posted wages over those in less concentrated ones. Wages were significantly lower for occupations with fewer companies posting on the website than for occupations where many employers are looking&mdash;and competing&mdash;for&nbsp;workers.</p>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Sign on the dotted&nbsp;line</h2>
<p>Today, companies rely on a range of practices to keep workers from translating their hard work and increased productivity into better pay and terms of employment. One of the core issues that has arisen in recent years is &ldquo;monopsony power,&rdquo; whereby one or a handful of employers have become so dominant in their market or region that they can exercise enormous control not just over their workers’ wages and their terms of employment, but even over where they work. Corporations are increasingly exercising monopsony power through purposeful practices specifically aimed at weakening worker mobility and keeping a lid on&nbsp;wages.</p>
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<p>Workers all across the country, and in a wide range of occupations&mdash;home health aides, seasonal workers, baristas, manicurists, janitors, cooks, cleaners, hotel employees, hair stylists, receptionists, mechanics, taxi drivers, and others&mdash;are being held back under the threat of restrictive covenants that limit their ability to change jobs and get ahead. That’s because non-compete clauses&mdash;agreements between employers and employees that were originally intended to protect trade secrets and hold on to workers with highly technical training&mdash;are increasingly being imposed on low-wage workers. But now the intent is not to protect trade secrets; rather it’s to keep wages low by giving corporations enormous leverage over their employees. Today, as many as 30 million American workers, or 18 percent of the labor force, are currently covered by a non-compete clause. One in seven workers making under $40,000 a year reports having signed&nbsp;one.</p>
<p>Sometimes, workers will sign non-compete clauses unknowingly. But more often they sign because they have to. A 2017 report found that of all employees asked to sign a non-compete clause, two-thirds reported they did so because they had no other job&nbsp;offers.</p>
<p>Jimmy John’s, the popular chain of sandwich stores, infamously included non-compete clauses in the contracts of its $8.15 per hour workers, preventing them from moving to higher-wage jobs with competitors. Though Jimmy John’s eventually stopped including these provisions in its hiring papers, non-compete provisions across industry remain pervasive. These clauses keep low-wage workers from pursuing better-paying jobs in the same fields. Data from the Census Bureau show that a worker who switches employers within the same state will see an average 7.6 percent in earnings growth over the course of a year than someone who stays in the same&nbsp;job.</p>
<p>The results of not abiding by the non-compete clause can be devastating. Keith Bollinger, a North Carolina factory worker who signed a non-compete clause, took a better paying job with another factory and was sued by his former employer. He later told <em>The New York Times</em>, &ldquo;I tried to get a better life for my wife and my son, and it backfired. Now I’m in my mid-50s, and I’m ruined.&rdquo; According to the <em>Times</em>, Mr. Bollinger lost his savings after having to engage in a three-year legal battle with his former&nbsp;employer.</p>
<p>Benny Almeida told <em>The Seattle Times</em> that when he accepted a $15-an-hour job cleaning up water damage for a franchise of ServiceMaster, a $3.4 billion corporation, he unknowingly signed a non-compete clause. When he found a similar job paying $18 an hour, he took it. He soon received a letter from ServiceMaster demanding that he quit his new job because he was in violation of the non-compete clause he had&nbsp;signed.</p>
<p>Reading Mr. Bollinger’s and Mr. Almeida’s stories, I knew I would have likely done the same thing if I were in their shoes. Who wouldn’t? Hard work, ambition, and success are values that we claim to hold in high esteem as Americans. Yet millions of workers across the country are punished for trying to get ahead by companies intent on keeping them&nbsp;down.</p>
<p>Then there are so-called &ldquo;no-poaching agreements&rdquo;&mdash;a twist on non-competes&mdash;that are also used to freeze the pay of low-wage workers. Unlike non-competes, these agreements are often forged between large corporate franchisors&mdash;like Jiffy Lube and Carl’s Jr.&mdash;and their franchisees, usually unbeknown to the worker. Such covenants prohibit the franchisees from recruiting and hiring away one another’s workers. This means, for example, that none of the thousands of Carl’s Jr. franchisees may hire an individual who is currently employed&mdash;or was recently employed&mdash;by any other Carl’s Jr.&nbsp;franchisee.</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--pullquote" id="shakes-hands">
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/images/RTS14PL0.jpg" /><figcaption class="caption">Tony Harris (top) shakes hands with a Verizon representative at a City of Boston Neighborhood Career Fair, May&nbsp;2017.</figcaption><span class="caption__source">Reuters/Brian&nbsp;Snyder</span>
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<blockquote class="pullquote pullquote--artwork pullquote--red"><p>A worker who switches employers within the same state will see an average <em>7.6 percent in earnings growth</em> over the course of a year than someone who stays in the same&nbsp;job.</p></blockquote>
<p>No-poaching agreements prevent employees from finding higher-paying jobs at restaurants in the same chain. Even worse, the agreements limit employees’ leverage to negotiate for a raise because their current employer knows they are stuck, with no other restaurant in the franchise able to hire&nbsp;them.</p>
<p>This isn’t a niche issue. As of 2016, 58 percent of the country’s larger franchisors employed some form of no-poaching agreements. That includes IHOP, the 1,600-restaurant company that employs Natasha, my friend in Newark. For these workers, an already limited range of options narrows&nbsp;further.</p>
<p>And yet, we know it doesn’t have to be this way. There are companies, like Trader Joe’s and Costco, that are proving that investment in workers isn’t just good for workers, it’s also good for business. Extensive research by business professor Zeynep Ton has confirmed this, showing that many companies have found that making long-term investments in their workers is associated with more efficient operations, greater employee dedication, and lower turnover&mdash;ultimately leading to stronger profits and&nbsp;growth.</p>
</section>
<section>
<h2>The path&nbsp;forward</h2>
<p>What James Baldwin wrote decades ago is still a painful reality for millions of Americans: &ldquo;Anyone who has ever struggled with poverty knows how extremely expensive it is to be poor.&rdquo; When I talk with people living and working under the burden of economic insecurity, they almost always say that they are working as hard as they are, for as many grueling hours, not just for themselves, but for someone else&mdash;their children, their elderly parents who need their help, their families. For them, as for millions of Americans who are fighting every day for dignity and respect, their struggle will be worth it&mdash;their humble dreams will be realized&mdash;if they can help the next generation do better and have more opportunity. That was certainly my dad’s American&nbsp;Dream.</p>
<div id="pullquote--3" class="widgets">
<blockquote class="pullquote pullquote--blue"><p>There is no reason that a country as rich and as powerful as ours should have to <em>choose between</em> great wealth for the few and great opportunity for all of its&nbsp;citizens.</p></blockquote></div>
<p>There is no reason that a country as rich and as powerful as ours should have to choose between great wealth for the few and great opportunity for all of its citizens. And yet we stand by as our economy reaches unimaginable heights of abundance while leaving so many working people&nbsp;behind.</p>
<p>The truth is that our economy works best when no one is left on the sidelines, and when American workers are able to fully participate in the economy they help drive. But that doesn’t happen by accident. We must find common cause in demanding an economy that restores for everyone the fundamental truths that defined my dad’s experience. We must work to be a country in which any American who wants to work can get a job; where if you work hard, you are paid what you are worth; and where a free market means freedom for workers to move across the labor market to translate their value and increasing productivity into higher&nbsp;wages.</p>
<p>Like Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal and Lyndon B. Johnson’s Great Society, we must reimagine what we can and should expect out of our&nbsp;government.</p>
</section>
<section>
<h2>The right to a&nbsp;job</h2>
<p>There is great dignity in work. My dad’s first job changed the course of his life, and mine. Anyone in this country who wants to work should be able to do so, in a job that pays a living wage and offers meaningful benefits. But we know that today, despite an official unemployment rate under 4 percent, millions sit on the sidelines or cannot find full-time work&mdash;a cause and symptom of increasing income inequality, labor market concentration, and continued employment discrimination. Americans across the country are working two or three jobs to make ends meet, and they should have the dignity of a job that pays them a living wage, gives them meaningful benefits like paid sick leave, and safe working&nbsp;conditions. </p>
<p>Both Martin Luther King Jr. and President Franklin Delano Roosevelt believed that every American had the right to a job and that government would see to it that every American who wants to work would be able to. A jobs guarantee invests in our nation’s greatest asset, our people, by getting them off the sidelines and into the labor force with a livable wage. And in addition to allowing unemployed and underemployed folks to fill critical roles in much needed areas like infrastructure and child care, a policy like this carries the potential of lifting everyone’s&nbsp;wages.</p>
<p>Say you’re a store clerk making $9 an hour at Dollar General, or my friend Natasha at IHOP. A jobs guarantee would allow participants to have real options with a public sector job. If Natasha was making $2.13 an hour plus tips, but then had the ability to get a job with living wage plus benefits and paid leave elsewhere, IHOP would have to change its behavior to attract workers like Natasha, and raise wages in order to compete in the new labor market. If they want to keep you, they need to be&nbsp;competitive.</p>
<p>This is an idea we can prove will work by creating a model federal jobs guarantee program and piloting it in up to 15 high-unemployment communities across the country. Not only would this have a positive impact on the lives of potentially hundreds of thousands of Americans right away, but the valuable data gathered would help us learn lessons, assess its effectiveness, and perfect the idea. We would be able to test it in rural and urban communities alike and conduct a rigorous evaluation to determine the impact on unemployment and wage growth, as well as on things like safety net spending, incarceration rates, and health&nbsp;outcomes.</p>
<p>A program like this would also help advance critical local and national priorities at a time when our infrastructure is crumbling, millions of families are struggling to find affordable child care, and communities are suffering from decades of&nbsp;disinvestment.</p>
<figure id="datavis--3" class="widgets">
<h3>Workers in alternative work&nbsp;arrangements</h3>
<p>Independent contractors, on-call, temporary help agency workers, and contract-firm&nbsp;workers</p>
<p>					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/datavis/Booker_3.svg" width="100%" alt="" /><figcaption class="caption__source">Source: Lawrence Katz and Alan Krueger, &ldquo;The Rise and Nature of Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States, 1995-2005&rdquo; (NBER Working Paper 22667, September 2016), redrawn by&nbsp;Brookings</figcaption></p></figure>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Hard work should pay&nbsp;off</h2>
<p>Addressing wage stagnation and inequality seriously demands that Congress act to regulate and address the proliferation of corporate stock buybacks. Passing a law that says when companies buy back stocks to enrich shareholders and CEOs they should also pay out a commensurate sum to all of their employees shouldn’t be radical. When a company does well, it shouldn’t just be wealthy shareholders who reap the benefits. Under a law like <a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/2505">this</a>, the frontline sales associates of a company like Dollar General, who make as low as $8 an hour, could see a raise of roughly 30&nbsp;percent.</p>
<p>We also need to do more to address the commoditization of workers through outsourcing. Take the airline industry, which receives billions of dollars from the federal government for flying its employees and assets around the world. Congress is in a position to exert pressure on it. I wrote the <a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/2079/text">Airline Accountability Act</a> with Senator Sherrod Brown to ensure that federal travel contracts with airlines are awarded contingent on compliance with labor law&mdash;not only by the airlines themselves but also by their contractors. Of course, outsourcing and the broader commoditization of workers extend well beyond the airline industry, to areas that include big tech, agriculture, and&nbsp;hospitality.</p>
<p>One way we can increase accountability for parent companies across the board is by codifying the &ldquo;joint-employer standard,&rdquo; which holds that if a company and its contractor share control over their workers’ terms of employment&mdash;how much they are paid, how they do their job, what they wear&mdash;then both firms should be held liable for obeying labor protection laws. Put forth in 2014 and under attack ever since, the standard is essential for establishing who workers are able to bargain with and for holding companies appropriately accountable for instances in which they share control over illegal working&nbsp;conditions.</p>
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					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/images/RTR247CR.jpg" /><figcaption class="caption">Dollar General is expanding rapidily and buying back stock, but worker pay is lagging. <span class="caption__source">Reuters/Rick&nbsp;Wilking</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>During my time as mayor of Newark, we recognized that parts of our city, like so many others across the country, were struggling with low wages, high unemployment and lack of opportunity, and yet few investors were looking to these communities to inject their&nbsp;capital.</p>
<p>Today, more than 50 million Americans live in areas that are known as &ldquo;economically distressed communities&rdquo;&mdash;high poverty, high unemployment areas with few opportunities for job creation and little capital to jumpstart small businesses. In fact, according to data from the Economic Innovation Group, in more than half of &ldquo;distressed&rdquo; zip codes, the number of jobs and businesses <em>declined</em> from 2000 to 2015. When I came from Newark City Hall to the Senate, I knew that the programs we pioneered in Newark could work for other localities across the country as an economic development tool. I worked across the aisle and partnered with my colleague Senator Tim Scott on a <a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/293">bill</a> that is based on the idea that every neighborhood should be a place of opportunity and&nbsp;investment.</p>
<p>We both knew that few private investors look to distressed communities when thinking about how and where to put capital. But by creating a framework for investors to drive capital into these communities through business accelerators or infrastructure development projects, and incentivizing long-term investments, we recognized we could move this money into the communities that needed it most. Research from EIG has shown that living in a &ldquo;distressed&rdquo; zip code has far-reaching and damaging implications, on everything from mortality rates, to health outcomes, to educational attainment. Their 2017 Distressed Community Index put this disturbing contract into stark terms: they found that Americans living in the average distressed county die close to five years sooner than their peers living in wealthier&nbsp;countries.</p>
</section>
<section>
<h2>A free market means freedom for&nbsp;workers</h2>
<p><em><span class="pull-double">&ldquo;</span>Masters are always and everywhere in a sort of tacit, but constant and uniform combination, not to raise the wages of labour above their actual rate.&rdquo;
<br>&mdash;Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations,&nbsp;1776</em></p>
<p>We know that this isn’t the first time in our history we’ve seen large firms use their dominance to squeeze workers and suppliers.</p>
<p>Back at the turn of the 20th century, large &ldquo;trusts&rdquo; had risen to dominate many industries&mdash;in particular the nation’s railroad network and its oil production. Recognizing the danger posed by these trusts, Senator John Sherman of Ohio proposed an ambitious set of anti-monopoly laws. As he observed in 1889 when he introduced this legislation, a trust &ldquo;can control the market, raise or lower prices as will best promote its selfish interests … break down competition … disregard the interest of the consumer … and command the price of labor.&rdquo; To ensure that large-scale industry would remain competitive, Congress passed the antitrust legislation sponsored by Senator Sherman almost unanimously in 1890.</p>
<p>As a legal matter, these antitrust laws, still in place today, are meant to ensure competition for the benefit of both consumers and workers. But at some point in the years since, the government agencies in charge of enforcing these laws have forgotten about the part of their mandate that applies to labor. Instead of making sure that workers are protected when large companies merge, these agencies have ignored threats to competition in labor markets. And that’s been true for too long under both Democratic and Republican administrations.</p>
<p>We know that competitive markets promote economic efficiency and growth: they result in lower prices and better products for consumers, a level playing field for entrepreneurs and small businesses, and greater opportunities for workers. It is the job of antitrust regulators to protect competition across the economy&mdash;including in labor markets, to ensure that workers share in the wealth they help create. The Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission could address these shortcomings if they wanted to&mdash;and without action from Congress. The agencies should update their &ldquo;Horizontal Merger Guidelines&rdquo;&mdash; rules that help them determine whether a potential merger would have anticompetitive effects&mdash;to include the impact on labor markets, just as they do for product markets. In doing so, the federal government can ensure workers have meaningful choices that allow them to fairly bargain among potential employers. Such action is sorely needed: in an analysis of several decades of cases, my office was unable to identify a single instance in which the Justice Department or the Federal Trade Commission has challenged a proposed merger or acquisition due to labor market concerns.</p>
<p>When workers in any industry, for whatever reason, cannot translate their productivity into better jobs at higher pay, we are suffocating their&mdash;and our&mdash;potential. A free and fair economy is sustained by freedom and fairness for&nbsp;workers.</p>
<p>We know that bargaining power for workers matters. A 2018 Northwestern University study found that &ldquo;the link between productivity growth and wage growth is stronger when labor markets are less concentrated.&rdquo; In other words, workers are more likely to be paid a decent wage for the work they do when there are more employers competing for their labor. IBM invested in my dad all those years not just because it wanted to, but because the company had to; if he felt he wasn’t being compensated fairly for his value to the firm, he could have simply gone&nbsp;elsewhere.</p>
<p>We need to punish instances of collusion and wage fixing as proactively and aggressively as when these massive companies go after low-wage workers violating their non-compete clauses. To make this possible we should be significantly increasing the budgets of the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission; oversight doesn’t work if no one is&nbsp;watching.</p>
<p>The overuse of restrictive employment agreements like no-poaching clauses and non-compete agreements is an assault on the bedrock American principle of freedom of opportunity. This is why I introduced <a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/2480">legislation</a> to ban these kinds of agreements for low-income workers, to prohibit no-poaching clauses, and to allow workers to move freely across the labor&nbsp;market.</p>
<figure id="datavis--4" class="widgets">
<h3>One in seven workers earning less than $40,000 per year is bound by a&nbsp;non-compete</h3>
<p>					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/datavis/Booker_4.svg" width="100%" alt="" /><figcaption class="caption__source">Source: U.S. Treasury Department, &#8220;Non-Compete Contracts: Economic Effects and Policy Implications,&#8221; (March 2016), redrawn by&nbsp;Brookings</figcaption></p></figure>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Redeeming the&nbsp;dream</h2>
<p>My brother and I grew up with an experience of the world that was drastically different than our dad’s. We were raised in a middle income, suburban community. Although we were virtually the only black family in town, we were met with love, care, and support from our neighbors and our community. We worked hard in school, in sports, and in our community and the bargain worked for us&mdash;we&nbsp;succeeded.</p>
<p>For my dad, I know watching his boys grow up with all of the blessings he could scarcely have dreamed of and that he had worked so hard for was a delicate balance of often conflicting ideas. My dad had an ability to, in the words of Walt Whitman, &ldquo;contain multitudes.&rdquo; He could hold in his heart and his head opposing feelings and ideas and find a way to balance the two. He knew that his two black boys could live and play freely in suburban New Jersey but that the same wasn’t true for so many other boys growing up in America. When I first got behind the wheel of a car as a teenager, my dad was proud, I’m sure, but I remember most clearly the very detailed and passionate instructions he and my mom relayed if I were to ever get stopped by police, which I did, much more than my white&nbsp;peers.</p>
<p>My dad, who had witnessed, been a part of, and benefited from the civil rights movement, knew that there was so much to be proud of as Americans, from our collective struggles for justice and equality, to our innovative spirit, to our collective compassion and care for one another. But he also knew the anguish of hate, cruelty, and evil that confronted too many fellow&nbsp;Americans.</p>
<p>My dad loved this country deeply. His faith in this nation was boundless, his hope for it unassailable. But he also possessed a deep and resounding anguish that this incredible nation had yet to extend the bargain he believed in to all of its people. My dad believed in the bargain, but he knew about the lie&mdash;that the promise of America wasn’t yet true for her&nbsp;people.</p>
<p>Almost five years have gone by since my dad passed away, and I think often about the contradictions of this nation that plagued him. I find myself balancing the same extraordinary love of America with the anguish and pain I feel knowing the blessings of this nation are still denied to too many of its&nbsp;citizens.</p>
<p>From cities like Newark to rural areas like the one my dad grew up in, Americans are trying&mdash;often on their own&mdash;to correct this imbalance, to bridge the gap between the ideals we cherish and the realities we must&nbsp;confront.</p>
<p>There is a way forward, a way through, and it starts with keeping the promise every generation of Americans in this country has made with the next: that we will give you a world better than the one we received. We have a lot of work to do to make this real and it must start with fixing, restoring, and expanding the bargain that working Americans have been making with this country for decades. It must mean restoring the value of work. It must mean a re-definition of our economic success not simply by the number of millionaires and billionaires we produce, but how we expand wealth, growth, and opportunity for all Americans. It must mean expanding the blessings of this nation so that the bargain works for every American who wants&nbsp;it.</p>
<p>To protect our promise, to restore our bargain, and to make real the truth of our most cherished ideals will require a renewed commitment. A renewed commitment to the big ideas that make people’s lives better, to pursuing the kinds of transformative policies that restore the value of work, and, most critically, a renewed commitment to one&nbsp;another.</p>
<p>It will require what Langston Hughes wrote when he said: &ldquo;There is a dream in the land / With its back against the wall &hellip; To save the dream for one / It must be saved for&nbsp;all.&rdquo;</p>
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					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/tbe-201805/assets/images/653545584.jpg" /><figcaption class="caption">U.S. Senator Cory Booker, at a Senate Foreign Relations committee meeting, March 15, 2017 in Washington, DC. <span class="caption__source">Getty Images/Justin Sullivan</span></figcaption></figure>
</section>
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<p><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.booker.senate.gov/?p=about_senator"><strong>Cory Booker</strong></a> is a United States senator from New Jersey. A Rhodes Scholar, Senator Booker started a nonprofit organization in Newark to provide legal services to low-income families and help tenants with their housing challenges. He served on the Newark City Council and then as Newark’s mayor from 2006 to 2013, when he was elected to the United States Senate. He serves on the Senate committees on the Judiciary; Foreign Relations; Environment and Public Works; and Small&nbsp;Business.</p>
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<h4>Acknowledgements</h4>
<p>Editorial: Fred&nbsp;Dews, William&nbsp;Finan, Beth&nbsp;Rashbaum, and Strobe&nbsp;Talbott.</p>
<p>Research: Brennan&nbsp;Hoban.</p>
<p>Graphics and design: Cameron&nbsp;Zotter and Jessica&nbsp;Pavone.</p>
<p>Web&nbsp;development: Yohann&nbsp;Paris.</p>
<p>Promotion: Brennan&nbsp;Hoban, Emily&nbsp;Rabadi, Amanda&nbsp;Waldron, and Ashley&nbsp;Wood-Schelling.</p>
<p>Photograph at top from Stocksy.</p>
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		<title>The education of Kim Jong-un</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jung H. Pak]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Feb 2018 13:00:01 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[The Education of Kim Jong&ndash;un By Jung H.&nbsp;Pak The Education of Kim Jong-Un February 2018 한국어 When North Korean state&nbsp;media reported in December 2011 that leader Kim Jong-il had died at the age of 70 of a heart attack from &ldquo;overwork,&rdquo; I was a relatively new analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. Everyone knew that&hellip;<div style="clear:both;padding-top:0.2em;"><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/28/523387964/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/fblike20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/29/523387964/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay,https%3a%2f%2fc24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com%2finteractives%2f2018%2fkim-jong-un%2fassets%2fdesign%2fheader.jpg"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/pinterest20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/24/523387964/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/twitter20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/19/523387964/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/email20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/20/523387964/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/rss20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&nbsp;&#160;</div>]]>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By Jung H. Pak</p><div id="tbe-201801">
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<h1><span>The</span> Education <span>of</span> <em>Kim Jong&ndash;un</em></h1>
<p>				<span class="header__author">By Jung H.&nbsp;Pak</span>
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<p><strong>When North Korean state&nbsp;media</strong> reported in December 2011 that leader Kim Jong-il had died at the age of 70 of a heart attack from &ldquo;overwork,&rdquo; I was a relatively new analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. Everyone knew that Kim had heart issues—he had suffered a stroke in 2008—and that the day would probably come when his family&rsquo;s history of heart disease and his smoking, drinking, and partying would catch up with him. His father and founder of the country Kim Il-sung had also died of a heart attack in 1994. Still, the death was&nbsp;jarring.</p>
<p>While North Koreans wept, fainted, and convulsed with grief, feigned or not, Kim Jong-un, the twenty-something-year-old son of Kim Jong-il, reportedly closed the country&rsquo;s borders and declared a state of emergency. News of these events began to filter out to the international media through cell phones that had been smuggled in before Kim Jong-il&rsquo;s&nbsp;death.</p>
<p>There had been signs before 2011 that Kim was grooming his son for the succession: he began to accompany his father on publicized inspections of military units, his birth home was designated a historical site, and he began to assume leadership titles and roles in the military, party, and security apparatus, including as a four-star general in&nbsp;2010.</p>
<p>In response to the death, South Korea convened a National Security Council meeting as the country put its military and civil defense on high alert, Japan set up a crisis management team, and the White House issued a statement saying that it was &ldquo;in close touch with our allies in South Korea and Japan.&rdquo; Back in Langley, I remember being watchful for any indications of instability, as I began to develop my thinking on what was happening and where North Korea might be headed under the newly named leader. Immediately after Kim Jong-il&rsquo;s death was announced, the North Korean state media made it clear that Jong-un was the successor: &ldquo;At the forefront of our revolution, there is our comrade Kim Jong-un standing as the great successor &hellip;&nbsp;&rdquo;</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--inline artwork--photo">
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/wept.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption class="caption">Pyongyang residents mourn the death of their leader, Kim Jong-il, in December 2011. <span>Reuters/Kyodo</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>What sort of person was Kim Jong-un? Would he even want the burden of being North Korea&rsquo;s leader? And if so, how would he govern and conduct foreign affairs? What would be his approach to the nuclear weapons program that he inherited? Would the elites accept Kim? Or would there be instability, mass defections, a flood of refugees, bloody purges, a military&nbsp;coup?</p>
<p>Predictions about Kim&rsquo;s imminent fall, overthrow, or demise were rife among North Korea and Asia watchers. Surely, someone in his mid-20s with no leadership experience would be quickly overwhelmed and usurped by his elders. There was no way North Koreans would stand for a second dynastic succession, unheard of in communism, not to mention that his youth was a critical demerit in a society that prizes the wisdom that comes with age and maturity. And if Kim Jong-un were to hold onto his position, what would happen to his country? North Korea was poor and backward, isolated, unable to feed its people, while clinging to its nuclear and missile programs for legitimacy and prestige. Under Kim Jong-un, the collapse of North Korea seemed more likely than&nbsp;ever.</p>
<p>That was&nbsp;then.</p>
<p>In the six years since, Kim has collected a number of honorifics, cementing his position as North Korea&rsquo;s leader. Kim has carried out four of North Korea&rsquo;s six nuclear tests, including the biggest one, in September 2017, with an estimated yield between 100-150 kilotons (the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan during World War II was an estimated 15 kilotons). He has also tested nearly 90 ballistic missiles, three times more than his father and grandfather combined. North Korea now has between 20 and 60 nuclear weapons and has demonstrated ICBMs that appear to be capable of hitting the continental United States. It could also be on track to have up to 100 nuclear weapons and a variety of missiles—long-range, road-mobile, and submarine-launched—that could be operational as early as 2020. Under Kim, North Korea has conducted major cyberattacks and reportedly used a chemical nerve agent to kill Kim&rsquo;s half-brother at an international&nbsp;airport.</p>
<p>The last six years have also seen Kim dotting the North Korean landscape with ski resorts, water parks, and high-end restaurants to showcase the country&rsquo;s modernity and prosperity to internal and external audiences. They are also meant to deliver on his promise to improve the people&rsquo;s lives—as part of his <em>byungjin</em> policy of developing both the economy and nuclear weapons capabilities—and to attract foreign&nbsp;tourists.</p>
<p>Yet even as he is modernizing his country at a furious pace, Kim has deepened North Korea&rsquo;s isolation. Having rebuffed U.S., South Korean, and Chinese attempts to reengage, he has refused to meet with any foreign head of state, and so far as is known, since becoming leader his significant foreign contacts have been limited to Kenji Fujimoto, a Japanese sushi chef whom he knew in his youth and whom he invited to Pyongyang in 2012, and Dennis Rodman, an American basketball player, who has visited North Korea five times since&nbsp;2013.</p>
<p>Kim Jong-un is here to&nbsp;stay.</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--inline" id="missiles-chart">
<h3>Of Missiles and&nbsp;Men</h3>
<p>The pace of weapons testing is speeding up. Kim Jong-un has already tested nearly three times more missiles than his father and grandfather combined.</p>
<p>					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/missile-chart.png" alt=""/><figcaption class="caption caption-small">Source: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies/Nuclear Threat Initiative</figcaption></p></figure>
</section>
<div class="curtain">
<figure>
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/opacity.jpg" alt=""/>
<br>
				</figure>
</div>
<section>
<p class="caption caption__curtain">A painting of the late North Korean leaders Kim Il-sung (L) and Kim Jong-il hints at the opaqueness of the Hermit Kingdom. <span>Jason Lee/Reuters</span></p>
<h2>The ten-foot-tall&nbsp;baby</h2>
<p>North Korea is what we at the CIA called &ldquo;the hardest of the hard targets.&rdquo; A former CIA analyst once said that trying to understand North Korea is like working on a &ldquo;jigsaw puzzle when you have a mere handful of pieces and your opponent is purposely throwing pieces from other puzzles into the box.&rdquo; The North Korean regime&rsquo;s opaqueness, self-imposed isolation, robust counterintelligence practices, and culture of fear and paranoia provided at best fragmentary&nbsp;information.</p>
<p>Intelligence analysis is difficult, and not intuitive. The analyst has to be comfortable with ambiguity and contradictions, constantly training her mind to question assumptions, consider alternative hypotheses and scenarios, and make the call in the absence of sufficient information, often in high-stakes situations. To cultivate these habits of mind, we were required to take courses to improve our thinking. Walk into any current or former CIA analyst&rsquo;s office, and you will find a slim, purple book by Richards Heuer with the title <em>Psychology of Intelligence Analysis</em>. This is required reading for CIA analysts. It was presented to us during our initial education as new CIA officers and often referred to in subsequent training. It still sits on my shelf at Brookings, within arm&rsquo;s reach. When I happen to glance at the purple book, I am reminded about how humility is inherent in intelligence analysis—especially in studying a target like North Korea—since it forces me to confront my doubts, remind myself about how I know what I know and what I don&rsquo;t know, confront my confidence level in my assessments, and evaluate how those unknowns might change my&nbsp;perspective.</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--right" id="baby">
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/baby.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption class="caption"> <span>Anita Kunz/The New&nbsp;Yorker</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>Heuer, who worked at the CIA for 45 years in both operations and analysis, focused his book on how intelligence analysts can overcome, or at least recognize and manage, the weaknesses and biases in our thinking processes. One of his key points was that we tend to perceive what we expect to perceive, and that &ldquo;patterns of expectations tell analysts, subconsciously, what to look for, what is important, and how to interpret what is seen.&rdquo; The analyst&rsquo;s established mindset predisposes her to think in certain ways and affects the way she incorporates new&nbsp;information.</p>
<p>What, then, are the expectations and perceptions that we need to overcome to form an accurate assessment of Kim Jong-un and his regime? Given the over-the-top rhetoric from North Korea&rsquo;s state media, Kim&rsquo;s own often outrageous statements, and the hyperbolic imagery and boastful platitudes perpetuated by the ubiquitous socialist realism art, it has been only too easy to reduce Kim to caricature. That is a&nbsp;mistake.</p>
<p>When the focus is on Kim&rsquo;s appearance, there&rsquo;s a tendency to portray him as a cartoon figure, ridiculing his weight and youth. Kim has been called—and not just by our president—&ldquo;Rocket Man,&rdquo; &ldquo;short and fat,&rdquo; &ldquo;a crazy fat boy,&rdquo; and &ldquo;Pyongyang&rsquo;s pig boy.&rdquo; A New Yorker cover from January 18, 2016, soon after North Korea&rsquo;s fourth nuclear test, portrayed him as a chubby baby, playing with his &ldquo;toys&rdquo;: nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, and tanks. The imagery suggests that, like a child, he is prone to tantrums and erratic behavior, unable to make rational choices, and liable to get himself and others into&nbsp;trouble.</p>
<p>However, when the focus is on the frighteningly rapid pace and advancement of North Korea&rsquo;s cyber, nuclear, and conventional capabilities, Kim is portrayed as a ten-foot-tall giant with untold and unlimited power: unstoppable, undeterrable,&nbsp;omnipotent.</p>
<p>The coexistence of these two sets of overlapping perceptions—the ten-foot-tall baby—has shaped our understanding and misunderstanding of Kim and North Korea. It simultaneously underestimates and overestimates Kim&rsquo;s capabilities, conflates his capabilities with his intentions, questions his rationality, or assumes his possession of a strategic purpose and the means to achieve his goals. These assumptions distort and skew our policy&nbsp;discussions.</p>
</section>
<div class="curtain">
<figure>
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/propaganda.jpg" alt=""/>
<br>
				</figure>
</div>
<section>
<p class="caption caption__curtain">A woman in Pyongyang walks past a billboard advertising North Korea’s missile prowess. The capital city is rife with stylized propaganda. <span>David Guttenfelder/National Geographic Creative</span></p>
<h2>Footsteps of General&nbsp;Kim</h2>
<p>If he had followed Korean custom and tradition, Kim Jong-il would have named Kim Jong-nam, not Kim Jong-un, his successor, because Jong-nam was the eldest of his three sons. But Kim Jong-il reportedly rejected Jong-nam as being unfit to lead North Korea. Why? For one, the elder Kim might have judged that Jong-nam was tainted by foreign influence. In 2001 Jong-nam had been detained in Japan with a fake passport in a failed attempt to go to Tokyo Disneyland. More seriously, it is said that he had suggested that North Korea undertake policy reform and open up to the West, enraging his&nbsp;father.</p>
<p>The second son, Jong-chul, was deemed too effeminate; one of Jong-chul&rsquo;s friends recalled that &ldquo;[Jong&ndash;chul] is not the type of guy who would do something to harm others. He is a nice guy who could never be a villain.&rdquo; Indeed, he seems to be playing an unspecified supporting role in his younger brother&rsquo;s&nbsp;regime.</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--inline" id="family-tree">
<h3>All in the&nbsp;family</h3>
<p>Four generations of Kims: A&nbsp;selective history*</p>
<p>					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/family-tree-1.png" alt=""/>
<br>
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/family-tree-2.png" alt=""/><figcaption class="caption caption-small">*North Korea&#8217;s secrecy makes it difficult to verify information about Kim Jong-un&#8217;s children, including how many there are and when they were born. His wife&rsquo;s birth date is also unconfirmed.</figcaption></p></figure>
<p>That left Jong-un, whom the elder Kim chose to be the third Kim to lead North Korea because he was the most aggressive of his children. Kenji Fujimoto, Kim Jong-il&rsquo;s former sushi chef, who visited Pyongyang at the request of Kim Jong-un, has provided some of the most fascinating firsthand observations about Jong-un and his relationship with his father. Fujimoto claims that Jong-il had chosen his youngest son to succeed him as early as 1992, citing as evidence the scene at Jong-un&rsquo;s ninth birthday banquet where Jong-il instructed the band to play &ldquo;Footsteps&rdquo; and dedicated the song to his son: <em>Tramp, tramp, tramp; The footsteps of our General Kim; Spreading the spirit of February</em> [a reference to Kim Jong-il, who was born in February]<em>; We, the people, march forward to a bright future.</em> Judging from the lyrics, Jong-il was expecting Kim Jong-un to lead North Korea into the future, guided by the spirit and legacy of his&nbsp;father.</p>
<p>Though Jong-il saw in his son a worthy successor to the dynasty, there are critical differences between the first two Kims and Kim Jong-un. Kim Il-sung, the country&rsquo;s founder and Jong-un&rsquo;s grandfather who ruled for nearly five decades until his death in 1994, was a revolutionary hero who fought Japanese imperialism, the South Korean &ldquo;puppets,&rdquo; and the American &ldquo;jackals&rdquo; in a military conflict that ended only because of an&nbsp;armistice.</p>
<p>In the next generation Kim Jong-il had to navigate through world-changing events that included the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent end of large-scale aid from Moscow, a changing relationship with the ever-suspicious Chinese who seemed to be prioritizing links with Seoul, and tense negotiations with the United States on North Korea&rsquo;s burgeoning nuclear program. And let&rsquo;s not forget the famine and the drought of the 1990s, or the tightening noose of sanctions and international&nbsp;ostracism.</p>
<p>In contrast with his battle-hardened elders, Kim Jong-un grew up in a cocoon of indulgence and&nbsp;privilege.</p>
<aside class="nugget nugget--display-right">
<div>
<p><strong>1990s</strong> Chicago Bulls</p>
<p>Kim Jong-un has a well-known love of basketball. According to a GQ interview, it began when a Japanese contact sent him VHS tapes of Chicago Bulls&lsquo; playoff&nbsp;games.</p>
</div>
</aside>
<p>During the 1990s famine, in which as many as 2–3 million North Koreans died as a result of starvation and hunger-related illnesses, Kim was in Switzerland. His childhood was marked by luxury and leisure: vast estates with horses, swimming pools, bowling alleys, summers at the family&rsquo;s private resort, luxury vehicles adapted so that he could drive when he was 7 years old. For Kim, skiing in the Swiss Alps and swimming in the French Riviera must have seemed part of his birthright. Kim had a temper, hated to lose, and loved Hollywood movies and basketball player Michael&nbsp;Jordan.</p>
<p>Fujimoto, the sushi chef, has described Jong-un&rsquo;s mother as not very strict about education and says that he was never forced to study. His friend and classmate in Switzerland said of Kim: &ldquo;We weren&rsquo;t the dimmest kids in the class but neither were we the cleverest. We were always in the second tier &hellip; The teachers would see him struggling ashamedly and then move on. They left him in peace.&rdquo; Jong-un was apparently unbothered by his less-than stellar scores; as his classmate noted, &ldquo;He left without getting any exam results at all. He was much more interested in football and basketball than&nbsp;lessons.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Despite his apparent lack of seriousness, Jong-un seems to have known from early on that, as his father&rsquo;s chosen successor, he was destined to lead. His strong self-esteem and confidence were cultivated beginning when he was very young. And the Kim family dynasty—a totalitarian regime—carefully created a cult of personality around the young boy, as it had done with his father and grandfather before him, reinforcing it through fear and intimidation and shows of force. Kim&rsquo;s aunt said that at his eighth birthday party, he wore a general&rsquo;s uniform with stars, and the real generals with real stars bowed to him and paid their respects to the boy. According to Fujimoto, Kim carried a Colt .45 pistol when he was 11 years old and dressed in miniature army&nbsp;uniforms.</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--right artwork--photo">
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/little-boy.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption class="caption">A young Kim Jong-un (seen here with his mother, Ko Young-hui) is said to have started driving at 7 and begun carrying a pistol at 11. <span>Newscom</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>As Mark Bowden wrote in a <a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2015/02/kim-jong-un-north-korea-understanding">2015 <em>Vanity&nbsp;Fair</em> profile</a>, &ldquo;At age five, we are all the center of the universe. Everything—our parents, family, home, neighborhood, school, country—revolves around us. For most people, what follows is a long process of dethronement, as His Majesty the Child confronts the ever more obvious and humbling truth. Not so for Kim. His world at age 5 has turned out to be his world at age 30 &hellip; Everyone does exist to serve&nbsp;him.&rdquo;</p>
<p>So, while small armies of teachers, tutors, cooks, assigned playmates, bodyguards, relatives, and chauffeurs developed Kim&rsquo;s sense of entitlement and shielded him from the realities of North Korea and the world beyond when he was a child, the concept of <em>juche</em> (self-reliance) and <em>suryong</em> (Supreme Leader) would provide the ideological and existential justification for his rule when it came time for him to assume the mantle of leadership. The regime&rsquo;s propaganda machine constructed and promoted the mythology, extolling his wisdom, his martial prowess, and his near supernatural capabilities, an example of which was his supposed ability to drive at age&nbsp;three.</p>
<p>In October 2006, when Kim Jong-un was in his early twenties and two months away from his graduation from Kim Il-Sung Military University (which he had reportedly attended since 2002), North Korea conducted its first nuclear test, providing the Kim dynasty with yet another layer of protection, further steeping the nation in the Kim family mythology of supreme power, and further warping the young Jong-un&rsquo;s sense of reality and expectations. That nuclear test, and his grandfather&rsquo;s and father&rsquo;s commitment to nuclear weapons, would also, however, narrow his choices once he took power, boxing him into the conviction that the fate of the nation and its 25 million people rested on his carrying forward this legacy. The young Kim and his classmates at the military university—the future military elite—no doubt celebrated that nuclear milestone, which probably also fortified their optimism about their country&rsquo;s nuclear future and reinforced their belief in their role as the defenders of that&nbsp;future.</p>
<figure id="prison-camp" class="artwork artwork--right">
<h3>The Gulag Peninsula</h3>
<p>An estimated 200,000 North Koreans are held in some 30 prison camps across the&nbsp;country.</p>
<p>					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/prison-camp.png" alt=""/><figcaption class="caption">Source: The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK)</figcaption></p></figure>
<p>Once Kim did become the leader, and as such the personification of North Korea&rsquo;s national interest, he was endowed with all the tools of political repression that had consolidated his father&rsquo;s and grandfather&rsquo;s supremacy. These tools allowed him to validate his persecution of any real or suspected dissenters, and to maintain a horrific network of prison camps in which torture, rape, beatings, and a variety of other human rights violations continue to take place to this day, as they have done for many decades. As the U.N. Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in the Democratic People&rsquo;s Republic of Korea concluded in 2014, North Korea has committed &ldquo;systematic, widespread and gross human rights violations,&rdquo; and under its banner of &ldquo;Kimilsungism-Kimjongilism,&rdquo; the regime &ldquo;seeks to dominate every aspect of its citizens&rsquo; lives and terrorizes them from&nbsp;within.&rdquo;</p>
</section>
<div class="curtain">
<figure>
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/lone-soldier.jpg" alt=""/>
<br>
				</figure>
</div>
<section>
<p class="caption caption__curtain">A North Korean soldier in Pyongyang stands vigil in Kim Il-sung Square. The markings on the street are for military parades—a hallmark of dictatorships the world over. <span>David Guttenfelder/National Geographic Creative</span></p>
<h2>A 21st&ndash;century dictatorship</h2>
<p>As a scholar of U.S. history before I became an intelligence analyst, I couldn&rsquo;t help but think about Andrew Carnegie&rsquo;s famous statement about the third generation in America as Kim 3.0 took the reins of power in North Korea. &ldquo;There are but three generations from shirt sleeves to shirt sleeves.&rdquo; Or in other words, the first generation makes the money, the second generation maintains it, and the third squanders it. Kim Jong-un seems determined to avoid that&nbsp;fate.</p>
<p>Kim has adopted the mantle of the mythical, godlike leadership role that grandfather and country founder Kim Il-sung and his father Kim Jong-il held and continue to hold in their death. But he seems determined to chart his own path. In short, this is not your grandfather&rsquo;s&nbsp;dictatorship.</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--inline artwork--photo">
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/resemblance.png" alt=""/><figcaption class="caption">Kim Jong-un (right) bears an uncanny likeness to his grandfather Kim Il-sung (seen in hat) in both appearance and demeanor. <span>Reuters/Keystone-France</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>Kim is however harnessing the nostalgia for his grandfather&rsquo;s era, before the 1990s famine and the collapse of the Soviet Union and the resulting termination of aid. With his uncanny likeness to his grandfather in both appearance and demeanor, he has skillfully exploited the country&rsquo;s adulation of its founder. Just a few months after he became the leader of North Korea, on the 100th anniversary of his grandfather&rsquo;s birth, Kim delivered his first public address. As he invoked his grandfather&rsquo;s legacy in the lengthy, 20-minute speech, he also affirmed his father&rsquo;s &ldquo;military first&rdquo; policy, proclaiming that &ldquo;the days are gone forever when our enemies could blackmail us with nuclear bombs.&rdquo; Yet even while endorsing his father&rsquo;s policy, he was making a remarkable departure from his father&rsquo;s practice, for this was the first time that North Koreans had heard their leader&rsquo;s voice in a public speech since Kim Il-sung&rsquo;s days: Kim Jong-il shunned speaking in public during his almost 20 years of&nbsp;rule.</p>
<p>While basking in the nostalgia for his grandfather, Kim Jong-un is also determined to be seen as a &ldquo;modern&rdquo; leader of a &ldquo;modern North Korea.&rdquo; His charting of his own path can be seen in another departure from his father&rsquo;s public persona. Kim has allowed himself to seem more transparent and accessible than his father. He appears in public with his pretty and fashionable young wife, Ri Sol-ju (with whom he has at least one child, and possibly three). He hugs, holds hands, and links arms with men, women, and children, seeming comfortable with both young and old. That transparency has been extended to the government. When one of its satellite launches failed in April 2012, the regime admitted the failure publicly, the first time it had ever done&nbsp;so.</p>
<p>During his frequent public appearances, Jong-un can be seen giving guidance at various economic, military, and social and cultural venues, as his father and grandfather did, but he is also shown pulling weeds, riding roller coasters, navigating a tank, and galloping on a horse. He is comfortable with technology in the form of cell phones and laptops, and is also portrayed speaking earnestly with nuclear scientists and overseeing scores of missile&nbsp;tests.</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--inline artwork--wider artwork--photo">
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/wife.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption class="caption">Kim Jong&ndash;un frequently appears in public with his glamorous wife, Ri Sol&ndash;ju, to promote an image of youth, vigor, and dynamism. <span>KCNA/Reuters</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>Kim appears to want to reinforce the impression that he is young, vigorous, on the move—qualities that he attributes to his country as well. Speaking directly to the people in April 2012 in that first public speech he gave as their leader, he confidently promised that North Koreans would no longer have to tighten their belts. Later he announced his <em>byungjin</em> policy: that North Korea can have both its nuclear weapons and prosperity. Animated by the optimism of one whose privilege made him believe anything was possible, he has prioritized both these issues and personally taken ownership of them—all part of creating and nurturing his&nbsp;brand.</p>
<p>The images that the regime chooses to disseminate and weave into Kim&rsquo;s hagiography say a lot about how Kim envisions North Korea&rsquo;s future and his place in it. The carefully curated public appearances of Kim&rsquo;s wife, Ri Sol-ju, provide the regime with a &ldquo;softer&rdquo; side, a thin veneer of style and good humor to mask the brutality, starvation, and deprivation endured by the people, while reports about the existence of possibly multiple children hint at Kim and his wife&rsquo;s fecundity and the potential for the birth of another male heir to the Kim family dynasty (although I wouldn&rsquo;t rule out the possibility for Kim to choose a daughter to lead North Korea, given his &ldquo;modern&rdquo; tendencies). For the toiling masses as well as for the elite, Ri, the glamorous and devoted wife, is an aspirational&nbsp;figure.</p>
<p>To outside scholars, Ri&rsquo;s public appearances offer something else—a glimpse of an emerging material and consumer culture, which Kim seems to be actively promoting. Even as tension with the United States went into overdrive after a sixth nuclear test and the launch of numerous ballistic missiles during the summer and fall of 2017, state media showed Kim and his wife touring a North Korean cosmetics factory. He reportedly urged the industry to be &ldquo;world competitive,&rdquo; praised the factory for helping women realize their dream of being beautiful, and offered his own comments on the&nbsp;packaging.</p>
<p>In addition to the beauty industry, the vision of economic development that Kim has been promoting includes ski resorts, a riding club, skate parks, amusement parks, a new airport, and a dolphinarium, perhaps because he considers these as markers of a &ldquo;modern&rdquo; state. Or in his naiveté he may simply want his people to enjoy the things to which he has had privileged access. (Fujimoto claimed that when Kim was 18, he ruminated to the sushi chef, &ldquo;We are here, playing basketball, riding horses, riding Jet Skis, having fun together. But what of the lives of the average&nbsp;people?&rdquo;)</p>
<figure id="gdp" class="artwork artwork--left">
<h3>A Tale Of Two&nbsp;Koreas</h3>
<p>GDP Per Capita, USD</p>
<p>					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/gdp.png" alt=""/><figcaption class="caption caption-small">Source: Maddison Project</figcaption></p></figure>
<p>Kim may also be using the imagery of these amenities as a corrective, a way of undermining the dominant external narrative of a decaying, starving, economically hobbled North Korea. Perhaps even more importantly, he may be deploying these signs of affluence to craft an internal narrative about North Korea&rsquo;s material well-being at a time when his people are being exposed to more and more information about South Korea&rsquo;s wealth. DVDs and flash drives of South Korea&rsquo;s soap operas and K-pop music have been smuggled into the country in ever greater numbers, infiltrating the previously sealed mental and cultural landscape of North Koreans and presenting a potential danger to the regime. As North Korean defector Thae Yong-ho recently said in testimony to the U.S. Congress, this access to information about how the world outside North Korea lives is beginning to have a real impact: &ldquo;While on the surface the Kim Jong-un regime seems to have consolidated its power through [a] reign of terror &hellip; there are great and unexpected changes taking place within North&nbsp;Korea.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Of course, Kim still has enormous power and, like his father and grandfather, the willingness to hold onto it through extreme brutality. He maintains control through purges and executions—punishments and acts of revenge he appears to inflict with relish. In the six years of his reign the regime has purged, demoted, &ldquo;reeducated,&rdquo; and shuffled scores of senior&nbsp;leaders.</p>
<aside class="nugget nugget--display-right">
<div>
<p><strong>340</strong>Executions</p>
<p>Between 2011 and 2016, Kim Jong&ndash;un reportedly ordered scores of executions&mdash;sometimes for trivial reasons such as half&ndash;hearted clapping and sleeping in a&nbsp;meeting.</p>
</div>
<p class="caption caption-small">Source: Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS)</p>
</aside>
<p>There was also the spectacularly shocking public humiliation of Kim&rsquo;s uncle Jang Song-thaek in 2013, who was labeled &ldquo;human scum&rdquo; and &ldquo;worse than a dog&rdquo; and then reportedly executed by an anti-aircraft gun for allegedly undermining the &ldquo;unitary leadership of the party&rdquo; and &ldquo;anti-party and counterrevolutionary factional acts.&rdquo; Kim probably also ordered the deadly attack by the application of a VX nerve agent—one of the most toxic of the chemical warfare agents—against Jong-nam, his half-brother and erstwhile competitor for the position of supreme leader of North Korea. Captured on camera, the attack occurred in Malaysia&rsquo;s airport, and images of Jong-nam&rsquo;s gruesome death were circulated around the&nbsp;world.</p>
<p>Kim has made it clear that he will not tolerate any potential challengers. And his rule through terror and repression—against the backdrop of that pastel wonderland of waterparks—means that the terrorized and repressed will continue to feed Kim&rsquo;s illusions and expectations, his grandiose visions of himself and North Korea&rsquo;s&nbsp;destiny.</p>
</section>
<div class="curtain">
<figure>
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/nuclear.jpg" alt=""/>
<br>
				</figure>
</div>
<section>
<p class="caption caption__curtain">Kim Jong&ndash;un has overseen four nuclear tests and debuted ballistic missiles of various ranges, launched from multiple locations. <span>STR/AFP/Getty Images</span></p>
<h2>Bigger, badder,&nbsp;bolder</h2>
<p>For the past six years, Kim has poked and prodded, testing and pushing the boundaries of international tolerance for his actions, calculating that he can handle whatever punishment is meted out. To a large extent, he has maintained the initiative on the Korean Peninsula, to the frustration of the United States and his neighbors. And as the U.S. and the international community have imposed ever stricter sanctions, Kim has chosen to double down on his nuclear weapons despite the financial consequences and the increasing international&nbsp;isolation.</p>
<p>Just two weeks after North Korean negotiators agreed to the 2012 Leap Day deal with the U.S., which called for a moratorium on Pyongyang&rsquo;s nuclear and ballistic missile tests in exchange for food aid, the new Kim regime announced its intention to conduct a space launch, using the same ballistic missile technology banned by sanctions. Although that space launch failed, North Korea, despite international condemnation of the April test, had success with its next attempt, when it launched a satellite into orbit in December 2012. By portraying Kim Jong-un as a hands-on leader who personally ordered the rocket launch from a satellite command center, the state media framed their new leader as bold and action-oriented even in the face of widespread international censure. Two months later in February 2013—just a little over a year into Kim&rsquo;s rule—North Korea conducted its third nuclear test, and Kim&rsquo;s&nbsp;first.</p>
<p>Under Kim, North Korea has pressed the accelerator on nuclear and missile development and has codified its status as a nuclear-armed state by inscribing that description into the revised constitution it issued in 2012. It has also reinforced Kim&rsquo;s role in advancing these nuclear capabilities, further solidifying his authority over their use. Kim has overseen three more nuclear tests, and debuted and tested new ballistic missiles of various ranges from multiple locations, including a submarine-launched ballistic missile and, in July and November 2017, intercontinental ballistic&nbsp;missiles.</p>
<p>North Korea shows every indication of making rapid progress toward the ability to threaten the United States and its allies, while also developing an arsenal for survivable second-strike options in the event of a conflict. But it has consistently asserted, as it did in the 2013 Law on Consolidating Position of Nuclear Weapons State, that the regime&rsquo;s nuclear weapons are for deterrence. Subsequent authoritative statements, including the North Korean foreign minister&rsquo;s remarks at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2017, have continued to hew to the same line: &ldquo;[North Korea&rsquo;s] national nuclear force is, to all intents and purposes, a war deterrent for putting an end to nuclear threat of the U.S. and for preventing its military invasion,&rdquo; he said, adding that Pyongyang&rsquo;s ultimate goal is to &ldquo;establish the balance of power with the&nbsp;U.S.&rdquo;</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--inline artwork--wider" id="interactive-globe">
<h3>In Harm&rsquo;s&nbsp;Way</h3>
<p>In November 2017, North Korea tested intercontinental ballistic missiles with a potential reach of 8,000 miles&ndash;putting the entire United States in&nbsp;range.</p>
<div id="globe"></div>
</figure>
<p>While Kim has been developing and demonstrating advanced nuclear weapons capabilities, he has also focused on diversifying the North&rsquo;s toolkit of provocations to include cyberattacks, the use of chemical and biological weapons, and the modernization of North Korea&rsquo;s military, which is among the world&rsquo;s largest armed forces with over 1 million warriors. Kim has presided over high-profile artillery firepower demonstrations, been captured in photographs poring over military plans purported to depict attacks against the United States and South Korea, and has issued inflammatory threats in response to U.S. and international&nbsp;pressure.</p>
<p>The rhetoric has also extended to threats against those who create negative portrayals of North Korea in popular culture. For example, in 2014, the regime said that the release of the movie <em>The Interview</em>—a comedy depicting an assassination attempt against Kim—would constitute &ldquo;an act of war&rdquo;; North Korean hackers threatened 9/11-type attacks against theaters that showed the&nbsp;film.</p>
<p>Although a 9/11-type event did not happen, the regime made it clear through a cyberattack that insults against Kim and North Korea would not be tolerated and that the financial consequences for the perpetrators would be dire. North Korean hackers destroyed the data of Sony Pictures Entertainment, the company responsible for producing the film, and dumped confidential information, including salary lists, nearly 50,000 Social Security numbers, and five unreleased films onto public file-sharing&nbsp;sites.</p>
<aside class="nugget nugget--display-right">
<div>
<p><strong>6,000</strong>Hackers</p>
<p>North Korea&rsquo;s army of cyber&ndash;disruptors&ndash;operating abroad in China, Southeast Asia, and other places&ndash;continues to expand its&nbsp;capabilities.</p>
</div>
<p class="caption caption-small">Source: South Korean Ministry of National&nbsp;Defense</p>
</aside>
<p>Yet, despite all the chest-thumping and bad behavior, Kim is not looking for a military confrontation with the United States. He is rational, not suicidal, and given his almost-certain knowledge of the significant deficiencies in North Korea&rsquo;s military capacity, he is surely aware that North Korea would not be able to sustain a prolonged conflict with either South Korea or the U.S. Although Kim is aggressive, he is not reckless or a &ldquo;madman.&rdquo; In fact, he has been learning how and when to recalibrate. And it is his ability to recalibrate, change course, and shift tactics that requires us to heed Heuer&rsquo;s warnings about the &ldquo;weaknesses and biases in our thinking process&rdquo; and continually challenge our assumptions and perceptions about &ldquo;patterns of expectations&rdquo; in North Korea analysis. We have to learn how to incorporate new information about what is driving Kim Jong-un and how we might counter this profound—and ever evolving—national security&nbsp;threat.</p>
<p>It is true that Kim has been emboldened since 2011, and he&rsquo;s gotten away with a lot: scores of missile test launches, nuclear tests, the probable VX nerve agent attack against his half-brother in Malaysia, a 2015 incident involving a landmine in the DMZ, the Sony hack in 2014 in which North Korean entities wiped out half of Sony&rsquo;s global network in response to the release of <em>The Interview</em>, and the mistreatment and death of U.S. citizen Otto Warmbier, a student tourist who was detained and sentenced to 15 years of hard labor for alleged hostile acts against the North Korean state. However, Kim has carefully stopped short of actions that might lead to U.S. or allied military responses that would threaten the&nbsp;regime.</p>
<p>That said, he has also been firm in his insistence that he will not give up North Korea&rsquo;s nuclear weapons, regardless of threats of military attacks or engagement. It is clear that he sees the program as vital to the security of his regime and his legitimacy as the leader of North Korea. He may well be haunted by a very real fear of the consequences of unilateral&nbsp;disarmament.</p>
<p>The North Korean regime has often made reference to the fate of Iraq and Libya—the invasion and overthrow of its leaders—as key examples of what happens to states that give up their nuclear weapons. At the 2017 Aspen Security Forum, Dan Coats, the U.S. director of National Intelligence, said that Kim &ldquo;has watched &hellip; what has happened around the world relative to nations that possess nuclear capabilities and the leverage they have,&rdquo; and added that the &ldquo;lesson&rdquo; from Libya for North Korea is: &ldquo;If you had nukes, never give them up. If you don&rsquo;t have them, get&nbsp;them.&rdquo;</p>
<p>If we unpack this comparison, we can envision how deeply Kim Jong-un might have been affected by the death of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi. The once &ldquo;king of kings in Africa,&rdquo; who ruled Libya for four decades, was captured by rebels in October 2011, a date well into the process of grooming Kim for leadership and just two months before Kim Jong-il&rsquo;s death. Graphic images of the bloodied Qaddafi ricocheted around the world. Contemporary reports described how Qaddafi was captured, hacked and beaten by a mob, shirtless and bloody, his body then stored in a&nbsp;freezer.</p>
<p>As Kim assumed his status as the newly anointed leader of North Korea, it&rsquo;s likely that this imagery was seared in his brain. And Washington&rsquo;s promises of a brighter future for North Korea if it denuclearized probably seemed hollow to the regime in Pyongyang. The North&rsquo;s foreign ministry said at the time that the Libya crisis showed that the U.S.-led effort to coax Libya to give up its weapons of mass destruction had been &ldquo;an invasion tactic to disarm the&nbsp;country.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Moreover, Qaddafi&rsquo;s death occurred during the so-called Arab Spring, when a wave of popular protests against authoritarian regimes convulsed the Middle East and North Africa between 2010 and 2011. The overthrow of regimes hitherto believed to be invincible probably highlighted for Jong-un the potential consequences of showing any signs of weakness, and reinforced the brutal suppression of dissent practiced by the Kim&nbsp;dynasty.</p>
<p>Even without all these warning signs, however, it is unlikely that Kim would have given serious consideration to denuclearizing his country. For him and his generation, people who came of age in a nuclear North Korea, the idea of disarming is probably an alien concept, an artifact of a distant &ldquo;pre-modern&rdquo; time that they see no advantage to revisiting, especially given the Trump administration&rsquo;s hints about &ldquo;preventive war&rdquo; and the president&rsquo;s own tweets threatening &ldquo;fire and fury&rdquo; against Kim and &ldquo;military solutions [that] are now fully in place, locked and&nbsp;loaded.&rdquo;</p>
</section>
<div class="curtain">
<figure>
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/skyline.jpg" alt=""/>
<br>
				</figure>
</div>
<section>
<p class="caption caption__curtain">Dusk falls on Pyongyang, where three generations of Kims have ruled since the country&rsquo;s founding in 1948. <span>David Guttenfelder/National Geographic Creative</span></p>
<h2>Edging Toward&nbsp;Hubris</h2>
<p>North Korea&rsquo;s highly provocative actions in the summer and fall of 2017—demonstrating ICBMs, conducting a test of a probable thermonuclear device, and threatening to detonate a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific—suggest that Kim&rsquo;s confidence has grown over the past six years. After all, he has outlasted both South Korean president Park Geun-hye and President Barack Obama. Perhaps he thinks he can out-bully and out-maneuver President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping as&nbsp;well.</p>
<p>Such confidence may be bolstered by the fact that Kim has yet to face a real &ldquo;crisis&rdquo; of the kind his father and grandfather had to confront and manage. He has relied on military demonstrations and provocative actions to get his way, and has no experience in the arts of negotiation, compromise, and&nbsp;diplomacy.</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--inline artwork--wider">
<h3>Qualifications by&nbsp;Generations</h3>
<p>					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/three-kims.png" alt=""/>
<br>
				</p></figure>
<p>Given the steady drumbeat of internal purges, the sidelining of North Korea&rsquo;s diplomats since 2011 because of Kim&rsquo;s focus on advancing his nuclear weapons program and conventional capabilities, and Kim&rsquo;s apparent reveling in his recent war of words with President Trump—Kim called Trump &ldquo;mentally deranged&rdquo; in response to Trump&rsquo;s personal attacks against Kim in his tweets and speech to the U.N. General Assembly in September—it would take a <em>very</em> brave North Korean official to counsel dialogue and efforts to mollify Washington and Beijing. Instead, Kim&rsquo;s use of repression and his conferring of financial benefits and special privileges to loyalists has probably encouraged sycophants and groupthink within his inner circle, fueling his preference for violence and&nbsp;aggression.</p>
<p>But he may be reaching a critical point where he has to make a strategic choice. While Kim has avidly pursued nuclear weapons, he is also, in accord with his announced policy of <em>byungjin</em>, deeply invested in improving the North Korean economy—certainly a tall order given the gravity of internal changes, the weight of sanctions, and Beijing&rsquo;s willingness to apply stronger pressure than we have seen before. Trends in North Korea&rsquo;s internal affairs, such as greater information penetration from the outside world, loosening of state control over resources and markets, the rise of consumerism, and the growth of a moneyed class, will also place severe stresses on the Kim&nbsp;regime.</p>
<figure id="isolation" class="artwork artwork--left">
<h3>How North Koreans Get Their&nbsp;News</h3>
<p>					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/isolation.png" alt=""/><figcaption class="caption caption-small">Source: InterMedia</figcaption></p></figure>
<p>At the same time, international pressure on North Korea has never been greater. A number of recent actions have the potential to squeeze North Korea&rsquo;s ability to earn hard currency for the regime to fund its economic and military goals, including: recent U.N. Security Council resolutions, such as the latest UNSCR 2397 in response to North Korea&rsquo;s ICBM test in November; successful U.S. efforts to compel countries—including China—to cut off trade and financial links with North Korea; and President Trump&rsquo;s September 21, 2017 executive order imposing new sanctions on North Korea (and authorizing broad secondary sanctions). These efforts also have the potential to undermine Kim&rsquo;s ability to reward elites and suppress their ability to make money for themselves or raise money for loyalty payments to the&nbsp;regime.</p>
<p>The combined weight of all these pressures, internal and external, on North Korea, coming precisely at a time of rising expectations within the country, may overwhelm the regime—unless Kim learns to dial back his aggression. That, of course, is a big&nbsp;if.</p>
<p>We should be concerned about Kim&rsquo;s hubris. In 2012, when Kim gave his first public speech, he ended with the line, &ldquo;Let&rsquo;s go on for our final victory.&rdquo; At the time, despite the fact that it was delivered against the backdrop of a military parade featuring the biggest display of Korean weapons ever to have been seen by the world, it sounded to me like the bluster of a new, young leader. For all we know he may have been posturing then, but given recent developments and Kim&rsquo;s likely increased confidence about his ability to call the shots, the U.S. and its partners and allies, including China, must be clear-eyed about the potential for Kim to shift his stated defensive position to a more aspirational&nbsp;one.</p>
<p>I still agree with the U.S. intelligence community&rsquo;s assessment that &ldquo;Pyongyang&rsquo;s nuclear capabilities are intended for deterrence, international prestige, and coercive diplomacy,&rdquo; as the director of National Intelligence testified in early 2017. But I believe it would be a mistake to extrapolate Kim&rsquo;s future intentions from his past pronouncements and actions because we do not and will never have enough information about North Korea&rsquo;s intentions and capabilities that will make us feel certain about our understanding of Kim. He and his country do not exist in an ahistorical space that is unchanging and static. Our analysis and policy responses must also change and evolve and be prepared for all potential scenarios. We, too, must avoid edging toward&nbsp;hubris.</p>
<p>Even as we parse every statement issued by North Korea, the country&rsquo;s media content, the satellite imagery of its infrastructure, the state-sponsored videos, and the testimonies of defectors, we must remember that Kim is watching us as much as we are watching him. The U.S. must work to minimize the threat of North Korea&rsquo;s nuclear weapons program without fueling conditions that could invite unintended escalation leading to armed conflict. The U.S. has opportunities to reshape Kim&rsquo;s calculus, constrain his ambitions, and cause him to question his current assumptions about his ability to absorb increasing external&nbsp;pressure.</p>
<figure class="artwork artwork--inline artwork--photo">
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/design/goodbye.jpg" alt="" id="goodbye"/><figcaption class="caption"><span>Bobby Yip/Reuters</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>As I have <a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.brookings.edu/research/beyond-maximum-pressure-a-pathway-to-north-korean-denuclearization/">written elsewhere</a>, we can still test Kim&rsquo;s willingness to pursue a different course and shift his focus toward moves that advance denuclearization. We can do so through strengthening regional alliances—especially with South Korea and Japan—that are demonstrably in lockstep on the North Korea issue. We can also increase stresses on the North Korean regime by cutting off resources that fund its nuclear weapons program and undermine Kim&rsquo;s promise to bring prosperity to North Koreans, and ramp up defensive and cyber capabilities to mitigate the threat posed by North Korea against the U.S. and its allies. We should also intensify pressure on the regime through information penetration, raising public awareness of Pyongyang&rsquo;s human rights violations, and create a credible, alternative vision for a post-Kim era to encourage&nbsp;defections.</p>
<p>Kim Jong-un is still learning. Let&rsquo;s make sure he&rsquo;s learning the right&nbsp;lessons.</p>
</section>
<section class="author">
					<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2018/kim-jong-un/assets/images/jung_pak.jpg" alt=""/>
<p><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.brookings.edu/experts/jung-h-pak/"><strong>Jung H. Pak</strong></a> is a senior fellow and the SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies at the Brookings Institution&rsquo;s Center for East Asia Policy Studies. She focuses on the national security challenges facing the United States and East Asia, including North Korea&rsquo;s weapons of mass destruction capabilities, the regime&rsquo;s domestic and foreign policy calculus, internal stability, and inter-Korean ties. She has held senior positions at the Central Intelligence Agency and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Prior to her work in national security, Pak taught U.S. history at Hunter College in New York City and studied in South Korea as a Fulbright&nbsp;Scholar.</p>
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<h4>Acknowledgements</h4>
<p>Editorial: Fred&nbsp;Dews, William&nbsp;Finan Beth&nbsp;Rashbaum, and Strobe&nbsp;Talbott</p>
<p>Research: Brennan&nbsp;Hoban and Paul&nbsp;Park</p>
<p>Graphics and design: Jessica&nbsp;Pavone and Cameron&nbsp;Zotter</p>
<p>Web&nbsp;development: Yohann&nbsp;Paris</p>
<p>Promotion: Emily&nbsp;Rabadi, Brennan&nbsp;Hoban, and Ashley&nbsp;Schelling</p>
<p>Korean translation by Yun-hyang Lee</p>
<p>Photograph at top from Reuters</p>
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		<title>The Wall: The real costs of a barrier between the United States and Mexico</title>
		<link>http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/443595922/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Vanda Felbab-Brown]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Aug 2017 13:00:25 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.brookings.edu/?post_type=essay&#038;p=432410</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[The Wall:The real costs of a barrier between the United States and MexicoLeer en Espa&ntilde;olEl MuroTopic:Price tagSmugglingCrimeU.S. EconomyCommunities &amp; EnvironmentAlong the U.S.&nbsp;Mexico near Nogales, Arizona Getty ImagesVanda Felbab-BrownAugust 2017The cheerful paintings of flowers on the tall metal posts on the Tijuana side of the border fence between the U.S. and Mexico belie the sadness of&hellip;<div style="clear:both;padding-top:0.2em;"><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/28/443595922/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/fblike20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/29/443595922/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay,https%3a%2f%2fc24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com%2finteractives%2f2017%2fthe-wall%2fassets%2fsvgs%2fbrookings.svg"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/pinterest20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/24/443595922/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/twitter20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/19/443595922/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/email20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/20/443595922/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/rss20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&nbsp;&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By Vanda Felbab-Brown</p><div id="tbe-201708">
<header class="header">
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<div class="header__heading">
<h1>The Wall<span class="text-hidden">:</span></h1>
<p>The real costs of a barrier between the United States and Mexico</p>
<p><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.brookings.edu/es/essay/el-muro-el-verdadero-costo-de-la-barrera-entre-estados-unidos-y-mexico/" class="header__language">Leer en Espa&ntilde;ol</a></p></div>
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</header>
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</nav><nav class="banner__nav"><a class="banner__nav__title">Topic<span>:</span></a><a class="banner__nav__link" href="#price-tag">Price tag</a><a class="banner__nav__link" href="#smuggling">Smuggling</a><a class="banner__nav__link" href="#crime">Crime</a><a class="banner__nav__link" href="#economy">U.S. Economy</a><a class="banner__nav__link" href="#communities-and-environment">Communities &amp; Environment</a></nav>
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<section class="info">
<p class="info__caption caption">Along the U.S.&nbsp;Mexico near Nogales, Arizona <span>Getty Images</span></p>
<p><span class="info__author">Vanda Felbab-Brown</span><span class="info__date">August 2017</span></p></section>
<section class="introduction">
<p>The cheerful paintings of flowers on the tall metal posts on the Tijuana side of the border fence between the U.S. and Mexico belie the sadness of the Mexican families who have gathered there to exchange whispers, tears, and jokes with relatives on the San Diego&nbsp;side.</p>
<figure class="figure-right" id="women-flower"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/527188676.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A woman in Tijuana, Mexico speaks with a U.S. immigration attorney through the border&nbsp;fence. <span>Getty Images</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>Many have been separated from their family members for years. Some were deported to Mexico after having lived in the United States for decades without authorization, leaving behind children, spouses, siblings, and parents. Others never left Mexico, but have made their way to the fence to see relatives in the United States. With its prison&ndash;like ambience and Orwellian name&mdash;Friendship Park&mdash;this site is one of the very few places where families separated by immigration rules can have even fleeting contact with their loved ones, from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. on Saturdays and Sundays. Elsewhere, the tall metal barrier is heavily&nbsp;patrolled.</p>
<p>So is to be the wall that President Donald Trump promises to build along the border. But no matter how tall and thick a wall will be, illicit flows will&nbsp;cross.</p>
<p>Undocumented workers and drugs will still find their way across any barrier the administration ends up building. And such a wall will be irrelevant to those people who become undocumented immigrants by overstaying their visas&mdash;who for many years have outnumbered those who become undocumented immigrants by crossing the U.S.&ndash;Mexico border.</p>
<p>Nor will the physical wall enhance U.S.&nbsp;security.</p>
<p>The border, and more broadly how the United States defines its relations with Mexico, directly affects the 12 million people who live within 100 miles of the border. In multiple and very significant ways that have not been acknowledged or understood it will also affect communities all across the United States as well as&nbsp;Mexico.</p>
</section>
<div id="price-tag" class="curtain">
<figure><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/price-tag-map.png" alt="Map showing the composition of the border: Border with no fence, vehicle or pedestrian fence, and the Rio Grande."/></figure>
</div>
<section>
<h2>What the <strong>wall</strong>&rsquo;s price tag would be</h2>
<p>The wall comes with many costs, some obvious though hard to estimate, some unforeseen. The most obvious is the large financial outlay required to build it, in whatever form it eventually takes. Although during the election campaign candidate Trump claimed that the wall would cost only $12 billion, a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) internal report in February put the cost at $21.6 billion, but that may be a major&nbsp;underestimate.</p>
<p>The estimates vary so widely because of the lack of clarity about what the wall will actually consist of beyond the first meager Homeland Security specifications that it be either a solid concrete wall or a see&ndash;through structure, &ldquo;physically imposing in height,&rdquo; ideally 30 feet high but no less than 18 feet, sunk at least six feet into the ground to prevent tunneling under it; that it should not be scalable with even sophisticated climbing aids; and that it should withstand prolonged attacks with impact tools, cutting tools, and torches. But that description doesn&rsquo;t begin to cover questions about the details of its physical structure. Then there are the legal fees required to seize land on which to build the wall. The Trump administration can use eminent domain to acquire the land but will still have to negotiate compensation and often face lawsuits. More than 90 such lawsuits in southern Texas alone are still open from the 2008 effort to build a fence&nbsp;there.</p>
<figure class="figure-centered"><video id="price-tag__video" preload muted poster="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/videos/3d-border.jpg"><source /><source /></video><figcaption>Mountainous terrain along the U.S.-Mexico border is an obstacle to building a wall. Depicted here: a stretch of border about 100 miles east of San&nbsp;Diego. <span>Google Earth</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>The Trump administration cannot simply seize remittances to Mexico to pay for the wall; doing so may increase flows of undocumented workers to the United States. Remittances provide many Mexicans with amenities they could never afford otherwise. But for Mexicans living in poverty&mdash;some 46.2 percent in 2015 according to the Mexican social research agency CONEVAL&mdash;the remittances are a veritable lifeline which can represent as much as 80 percent of their income. These families count on that money for the basics of life&mdash;food, clothing, health care, and education for their&nbsp;children.</p>
<blockquote><p>The remittances enable human and economic development throughout the country, and this in turn reduces the incentives for further migration to the United States &mdash; precisely what Trump is aiming to&nbsp;do.</p></blockquote>
<p>I met the matron of one of those families in a lush but desperately poor mountain village in Guerrero. Rosa, a forceful woman who was initially suspicious, decided to confide in me. Her son had crossed into the United States eight years ago, she said. The remittances he sent allowed Rosa&rsquo;s grandchildren to get medical treatment at the nearest clinic, some thirty miles away. Like Rosa, many people in the village had male relatives working illegally in the United States in order to help their families make ends meet. Sierra de Atoyac may be paradise for a birdwatcher (which I am), but Guerrero is one of Mexico&rsquo;s poorest, most neglected, and crime and violence&ndash;ridden states. &ldquo;Here you have few chances,&rdquo; Rosa explained to me. &ldquo;If you&rsquo;re smart, like my son, you make it across the border to the U.S. If you&rsquo;re not so smart, you join the <em>narcos</em>. If you&rsquo;re stupid, but lucky, you join the [municipal] police. Otherwise, you&rsquo;re stuck here farming or logging and&nbsp;starving.&rdquo;</p>
<figure class="figure-interactive" id="cost-estimates">
<h3>Construction cost estimates<sup>*</sup></h3>
<p><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/wallcosts.png" alt=""/><figcaption><sup>*</sup>The above figures show the upper estimate when a range was suggested. Costs do not include annual maintenance.</figcaption></p></figure>
<p>Any attempt to seize the remittances from such families would be devastating. Fluctuating between $20 billion and $25 billion annually during the past decade, remittances from the United States have amounted to about 3 percent of Mexico&rsquo;s GDP, representing the third&ndash;largest source of foreign revenue after oil and tourism. The remittances enable human and economic development throughout the country, and this in turn reduces the incentives for further migration to the United States&mdash;precisely what Trump is aiming to&nbsp;do.</p>
</section>
<div id="smuggling" class="curtain">
<figure><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/134302162.jpg" alt="A tunnel between Tijuana and a warehouse in California featured an elevator. Getty Images"/></figure>
</div>
<section>
<p class="caption">A tunnel between Tijuana and a warehouse in California featured an elevator. <span>Getty Images</span></p>
<h2>Why the <strong>wall</strong> wouldn&rsquo;t stop smuggling</h2>
<p>Why the DHS believes that a 30&ndash;foot tall wall cannot be scaled and a tunnel cannot be built deeper than six feet below ground is not&nbsp;clear.</p>
<figure class="figure-left" id="tunnel"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/tunnel.png" alt="smuggling tunnel can be as deep as 70 feet, lower than the wall being 6 feet deep"/></figure>
<p>Drug smugglers have been using tunnels to get drugs into the United States ever since Mexico&rsquo;s most famous drug trafficker, Joaquín &ldquo;El Chapo&rdquo; Guzmán of the Sinaloa Cartel, pioneered the method in 1989. And the sophistication of these tunnels has only grown over time. In April 2016, U.S. law enforcement officials discovered a drug tunnel that ran more than half a mile from Tijuana to San Diego and was equipped with ventilation vents, rails, and electricity. It is the longest such tunnel to be found so far, but one of 13 of great length and technological expertise discovered since 2006. Altogether, between 1990 and 2016, 224 tunnels have been unearthed at the U.S.&ndash;Mexico&nbsp;border.</p>
<p>Other smuggling methods increasingly include the use of drones and catapults as well as joint drainage systems between border towns that have wide tunnels or tubes through which people can crawl and drugs can be pulled. But even if the land border were to become much more secure, that would only intensify the trend toward smuggling goods as well as people via boats that sail far to the north, where they land on the California&nbsp;coast.</p>
<aside class="nugget nugget--display-right" id="nugget-smuggling">
<p><strong>224</strong>The number of tunnels unearthed at the U.S.&ndash;Mexico border, 1990&ndash;2016</p>
</aside>
<p>Another thing to consider is that a barrier in the form of a wall is increasingly irrelevant to the drug trade as it is now practiced because most of the drugs smuggled into the U.S. from Mexico no longer arrive on the backs of those who cross illegally. Instead, according to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, most of the smuggled marijuana as well as cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamines comes through the 52 legal ports of entry on the border. These ports have to process literally millions of people, cars, trucks, and trains every week. Traffickers hide their illicit cargo in secret, state&ndash;of&ndash;the art compartments designed for cars, or under legal goods in trailer trucks. And they have learned many techniques for fooling the border patrol. Mike, a grizzled U.S. border official whom I interviewed in El Paso in 2013, shrugged: &ldquo;The <em>narcos</em> sometimes tip us off, letting us find a car full of drugs while they send six other cars elsewhere. Such write&ndash;offs are part of their business expense. Other times the tipoffs are false. We search cars and cars, snarl up the traffic for hours on, and find&nbsp;nothing.&rdquo;</p>
<figure class="figure-centered"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/RTR2SCI9.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A U.S. Customs and Border Protection officer patrols some of the 24 lanes of traffic entering the U.S. from Mexico at San Ysidro. <span>Reuters</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>Beyond the Sinaloa Cartel, 44 other significant criminal groups operate today in Mexico. The infighting within and among them has made Mexico one of the world&rsquo;s most violent countries. In 2016 alone this violence claimed between 21,000 and 23,000 lives. Between 2007 and 2017, a staggering 177,000 people were murdered in Mexico, a number that could actually be much higher, as many bodies are buried in mass graves that are hidden and never found. Those Mexican border cities that are principal entry points of drugs into the Unites States have been particularly badly affected by the&nbsp;violence.</p>
<p>Take Ciudad Juárez, for example. Directly across the border from peaceful El Paso. Ciudad Juárez was likely the world&rsquo;s most violent city when I was there in 2011 and it epitomizes what can happen during these drug wars. In 2011 the Sinaloa Cartel was battling the local Juárez Cartel, trying to take over the city&rsquo;s smuggling routes to the United States, and causing a veritable bloodbath. Walking around the contested <em>colonías</em> at the time was like touring a cemetery: Residents would point out places where people were killed the day before, three days before, five weeks&nbsp;ago.</p>
<div class="interactive interactive-bullets"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/bullet-hole-1.png" alt="bullet hole"/><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/bullet-hole-2.png" alt="bullet hole"/><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/bullet-hole-1.png" alt="bullet hole"/><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/bullet-hole-2.png" alt="bullet hole"/><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/bullet-hole-1.png" alt="bullet hole"/><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/bullet-hole-2.png" alt="bullet hole"/><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/bullet-hole-1.png" alt="bullet hole"/><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/bullet-hole-2.png" alt="bullet hole"/><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/bullet-hole-1.png" alt="bullet hole"/></div>
<p>Juan, a skinny 19&ndash;year&ndash;old whom I met there that year, told me that he was trying to get out of a local gang (the name of which he wouldn&rsquo;t reveal). He had started working for the gang as a <em>halcone</em> (a lookout) when he was 15, he said. But now as the drug war raged in the city and the local gangs were pulled into the infighting between the big cartels, his friends in the gang were being asked to do much more than he wanted to do&mdash;to kill. Without any training, they were given assault weapons. Having no shooting skills, they just sprayed bullets in the vicinity of their assigned targets, hoping that at least some of the people they killed would be the ones they were supposed to kill, because if they didn&rsquo;t succeed, they themselves might be murdered by those who had contracted them to do the&nbsp;job.</p>
<p>I met Juan through Valeria, whose NGO was trying to help gang members like Juan get on the straight and narrow. But it was tough going for her and her staff to make the case. As Juan had explained to me, a member who refused to do the bidding of the gangs could be killed for his failure to&nbsp;cooperate.</p>
<p>&ldquo;And America does nothing to stop the weapons coming here!&rdquo; Valeria exclaimed to&nbsp;me.</p>
<figure class="figure-inline"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/RTX2NXIU.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Weapons seized from alleged drug traffickers in Mexico City. <span>Reuters</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>While President Trump accuses Mexico of exporting violent crime and drugs to the United States, many Mexican officials as well as people like Valeria, who are on the ground in the fight against the drug wars, complain of a tide of violence and corruption that flows in the opposite direction. Some 70 percent of the firearms seized in Mexico between 2009 and 2014 originated in the United States. Although amounting to over 73,000 guns, these seizures still likely represented only a fraction of the weapons smuggled from the United States. Moreover, billions of dollars per year are made in the illegal retail drug market in the United States and smuggled back to Mexico, where the cartels depend on this money for their basic operations. Sometimes, sophisticated money&ndash;laundering schemes, such as trade&ndash;based deals, are used; but large parts of the proceeds are smuggled as bulk cash hidden in secret compartments and among goods in the cars and trains daily crossing the border south to&nbsp;Mexico.</p>
<blockquote><p>Some 70 percent of the firearms seized in Mexico between 2009 and 2014 originated in the United&nbsp;States.</p></blockquote>
<p>And of course it is the U.S. demand for drugs that fuels Mexican drug smuggling in the first place. Take, for example, the current heroin epidemic in the United States. It originated in the over&ndash;prescription of medical opiates to treat pain. The subsequent efforts to reduce the over&ndash;prescription of painkillers led those Americans who became dependent on them to resort to illegal heroin. That in turn stimulated a vast expansion of poppy cultivation in Mexico, particularly in Guerrero. In 2015, Mexico&rsquo;s opium poppy cultivation reached perhaps 28,000 hectares, enough to distill about 70 tons of heroin (which is even more than the 24–50 tons estimated to be necessary to meet the U.S.&nbsp;demand).</p>
<figure class="figure-centered figure-two-images"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/drug-stamps-1.png" alt=""/><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/drug-stamps-2.png" alt=""/><figcaption>Heroin brand name stamps. <span>DEA</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>Mexico&rsquo;s large drug cartels, including El Chapo&rsquo;s Sinaloa Cartel, which is estimated to supply between 40 and 60 percent of the cocaine and heroin sold on the streets in the United States, are the dominant wholesale suppliers of illegal drugs in the United States. For the retail trade, however, they usually recruit business partners among U.S. crime gangs. And thanks to the deterrence capacity of U.S. law enforcement, insofar as Mexican drug&ndash;trafficking groups do have in&ndash;country operations in the U.S., such as in wholesale supply, they have behaved strikingly peacefully and have not resorted to the vicious aggression and infighting that characterizes their business in Mexico. So the U.S. has been spared the drug&ndash;traffic&ndash;related explosions of violence that have ravaged so many of the drug&ndash;producing or smuggling areas of&nbsp;Mexico.</p>
<p>Both the George W. Bush administration and the Obama administration recognized the joint responsibility for drug trafficking between the United States and Mexico, an attitude that allowed for unprecedented collaborative efforts to fight crime and secure borders. This collaboration allowed U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agents to operate in Mexico and help their Mexican counterparts in intelligence development, training, vetting, establishment of police procedures and protocols, and interdiction operations. The collaboration also led to Mexico being far more willing than it ever had been before to patrol both its northern border with the United States and its southern border with Central America, as part of the effort to help apprehend undocumented workers trying to cross into the United&nbsp;States.</p>
<figure class="figure-inline"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/104311233.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A U.S. Border Patrol officer looks through bullet-proof glass at the border near El Paso. <span>Getty Images</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>The Trump administration&rsquo;s hostility to Mexico could jeopardize this progress. In retaliation for building the wall, for any efforts the U.S. might make to force Mexico to pay for the wall, or for the collapse of NAFTA, the Mexican government could, for example, give up on its efforts to secure its southern border or stop sharing counterterrorism intelligence with the United States. Yet Mexico&rsquo;s cooperation is far more important for U.S. security than any&nbsp;wall.</p>
</section>
<div id="crime" class="curtain">
<figure><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/691597334.jpg" alt="Chicago police at the scene of a shooting in the Englewood neighborhood. Getty Images"/></figure>
</div>
<section>
<p class="caption">Chicago police at the scene of a shooting in the Englewood neighborhood. <span>Getty Images</span></p>
<h2>What the <strong>wall</strong> would mean for crime in the U.S.</h2>
<p>Although President Trump has railed against the &ldquo;carnage&rdquo; of crime in the United States, the crime statistics, with few exceptions, tell a very different&nbsp;story.</p>
<aside class="nugget nugget--display-right" id="nugget-crime">
<p>From 1991 to 2015, U.S. homicides fell <strong>36<sup>%</sup></strong></p>
</aside>
<p>In 2014, 14,249 people were murdered, the lowest homicide rate since 1991 when there were 24,703, and part of a pattern of steady decline in violent crime over that entire period. In 2015, however, murders in the U.S. did shoot up to 15,696. This increase was largely driven by three cities&mdash;Baltimore, Chicago, and Washington, D.C. Baltimore and Chicago have decreasing populations, and all three have higher poverty and unemployment than the national average, high income and racial inequality, and troubled relations between residents and police&mdash;conditions conducive to a rise in violent crime. In 2016, homicides fell in Washington and Baltimore, but continued rising in&nbsp;Chicago.</p>
<p>There is no evidence, however, that undocumented residents accounted for either the rise in crime or even for a substantial number of the crimes, in Chicago or elsewhere. The vast majority of violent crimes, including murders, are committed by native&ndash;born Americans. Multiple criminological studies show that foreign&ndash;born individuals commit much lower levels of crime than do the native&ndash;born. In California, for example, where there is a large immigrant population, including of undocumented migrants, U.S.&ndash;born men were incarcerated at a rate 2.5 times higher than foreign&ndash;born&nbsp;men.</p>
<figure class="figure-left"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/RTX36A3Z.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A Mexican man is fingerprinted while in custody of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. <span>Reuters</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>Unfortunately, the Trump administration is promoting a policing approach that insists on prioritizing hunting down undocumented workers, including by using regular police forces, and this kind of misguided law enforcement policy is spreading: In Texas, which has an estimated 1.5 million undocumented immigrants, Republican Governor Greg Abbott recently signed a law to punish sanctuary cities. Among the punishments are draconian measures (such as removal from office, fines, and up to one&ndash;year imprisonment) to be enacted against local police officials who do not embrace immigration enforcement. Abbott signed the law despite the fact that police chiefs from all five of Texas&rsquo;s largest cities&mdash;Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, and Fort Worth&mdash;published a statement condemning it: &ldquo;This legislation is bad for Texas and will make our communities more dangerous for all,&rdquo; they wrote in their <em>Dallas Morning News</em> op&ndash;ed. They argued that immigration enforcement is a federal, not a state responsibility, and that the new law would widen a gap between police and immigrant communities, discouraging cooperation with police on serious crimes, and resulting in widespread underreporting of crimes perpetrated against immigrants. There is powerful and consistent evidence that if people begin to question the fairness, equity, and legitimacy of law enforcement and government institutions, then they stop reporting crime, and homicides&nbsp;increase.</p>
<p>Police chiefs in other parts of the country, from Los Angeles to Denver, have expressed similar concerns and also their dismay at having to devote their already overstrained resources to hunting down undocumented&nbsp;workers.</p>
<p>The Trump administration has broadened the Obama&ndash;era criteria for &ldquo;expedited removal.&rdquo; Under Obama any immigrant arrested within 100 miles of the border who had been in the country for less than 14 days&mdash;i.e., before he or she could establish roots in the United States&mdash;could be deported without due process. The result: In fiscal year 2016, 85 percent of all removals (forced) and returns (voluntary) were of noncitizens who met those criteria. Almost all (more than 90 percent) of the remaining 15 percent had been convicted of serious&nbsp;crimes.</p>
<figure class="figure-centered"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/RTX273FY.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Children touch hands with family members through a border fence at Ciudad Juárez and El&nbsp;Paso. <span>Reuters</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>Now, however, any undocumented person anywhere in the country who has been here for as long as two years can be removed. And although it claims it will focus on deporting immigrants who commit serious crimes, the Trump administration is gearing up for mass deportations of many of the 11.1 million undocumented residents in the U.S., by far the largest number of whom come from Mexico (6.2 million), Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Ecuador, and Colombia. To that end, it is vastly expanding the definition of what constitutes deportable crime, including fraud in any official matter, such as abuse of &ldquo;any program related to the receipt of public benefits&rdquo; or even using a fake Social Security number to pay U.S. taxes. The Trump administration is also reviving the highly controversial 287(g) program under which local law enforcement officials can be deputized to perform immigration duties and can inquire about a person&rsquo;s immigration status during routine policing of matters as insignificant as&nbsp;jaywalking.</p>
<p>Many of the people being targeted have for decades lived lawful, safe, and productive lives here. About 60 percent of the undocumented have lived in the United States for at least a decade. A third of undocumented immigrants aged 15 and older have at least one child who is a U.S. citizen by birth. The ripping apart of such families has tragic consequences for those involved, as I have seen&nbsp;first&ndash;hand.</p>
<blockquote><p><span class="pull-double">&ldquo;</span>Many of the people being targeted [for deportation] have for decades lived lawful, safe, and productive lives here.&rdquo;</p></blockquote>
<aside class="nugget nugget--display-left" id="nugget-crime-2">
<p><strong>60<sup>%</sup></strong> of the undocumented have lived in the U.S. for at least a&nbsp;decade</p>
</aside>
<p>Antonio, whom I interviewed in Tijuana in 2013, had lived for many years in Las Vegas, where he worked in construction and his wife cleaned hotels. Having had no encounters with U.S. law enforcement, he risked going back to Mexico to visit his ailing mother in Sinaloa. But he got nabbed trying to sneak back into the U.S. After a legal ordeal, which included being handcuffed and shackled and a degrading stay in a U.S. detention facility, he was dumped in Tijuana, where I met him shortly after his arrival there. He dreaded being forever separated from his wife and their two little boys, who had been born seven and five years before. But Sinaloa is a poor, tough place to live, strongly under the sway of the <em>narcos</em>, and Antonio did not want his loved ones to sacrifice themselves in order to rejoin him. As Antonio choked back tears talking about how much he missed his family, I asked him whether they might travel to San Diego to speak with him across the bars of Friendship Park. But Antonio wasn&rsquo;t sure how long he could stay in Tijuana. He was afraid he would be arrested again, this time in Mexico, because in order to please U.S. law enforcement officials by appearing diligent in combating crime, Tijuana&rsquo;s police force had gotten into the habit of arresting, for the most minor of infractions, Mexicans and Central Americans deported from the United States. Sweeping homeless poor migrants and deportees off the streets made Tijuana&rsquo;s city center appear peaceful, bustling, and clean again, after years of a cartel bloodbath. Mexican businesses were pleased by the orderly look of the city center, the U.S. was gratified by Mexico&rsquo;s cooperation, and tourists were returning, with U.S. college students again partying and getting drunk in Tijuana&rsquo;s <em>cantinas</em> and clubs. If harmless victims of U.S. deportation policies like Antonio had to pay the price for these benefits, so be&nbsp;it.</p>
</section>
<div id="economy" class="curtain">
<figure><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/645309510.jpg" alt="Immigrant farm workers harvest spinach near Coachella, California. Getty Images"/></figure>
</div>
<section>
<p class="caption">Immigrant farm workers harvest spinach near Coachella, California. <span>Getty Images</span></p>
<h2>How the <strong>wall</strong> would hurt the U.S.&nbsp;economy</h2>
<p>If immigrants are not responsible for any significant amount of crime in the United States and in fact are considerably less likely than native&ndash;born citizens to commit crime, then what about the other justification for President Trump&rsquo;s vilification of immigrants, legal and illegal, and his determination to wall them out: Do immigrants steal U.S. jobs and suppress U.S.&nbsp;wages?</p>
<aside class="nugget nugget--display-right" id="nugget-life">
<p>Life of a typical migrant farm worker</p>
<div><span>Profile</span><em>75%</em> born in Mexico
<br><em>53%</em> undocumented</div>
<div><span>Schedule</span><em>14</em> hours a day
<br><em>6</em> days a week</div>
<div><span>Pay</span><em>$11k</em> per year
<br><em>No</em> overtime pay
<br><em>No</em> benefits</div>
<div><span>Risks</span>Heat stress, infections, poison, respiratory illness</div>
</aside>
<p>There is little evidence to support such claims. According to a comprehensive National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine analysis, immigration does not significantly impact the overall employment levels of most native&ndash;born workers. The impact of immigrant labor on the wages of native&ndash;born workers is also low. Immigrant labor does have some negative effects on the employment and wages of native&ndash;born high school dropouts, however, and also on prior immigrants, because all three groups compete for low&ndash;skilled jobs and the newest immigrants are often willing to work for less than their competition. To a large extent, however, undocumented workers often work the unpleasant, back&ndash;breaking jobs that native&ndash;born workers are not willing to do. Sectors with large numbers of undocumented workers include agriculture, construction, manufacturing, hospitality services, and seafood processing. The fish&ndash;cutting industry, for example, is unable to recruit a sufficient number of legal workers and therefore is overwhelmingly dependent on an undocumented workforce. Skinning, deboning, and cutting fish is a smelly, slimy, grimy, chilly, monotonous, and exacting job. Many workers rapidly develop carpal tunnel syndrome. It can be a dangerous job, with machinery for cutting off fish heads and deboning knives everywhere frequently leading to amputated fingers. The risk of infections from cuts and the bloody water used to wash fish is also substantial. Over the past ten years, multiple exposés have revealed that both in the United States and abroad, workers in the fishing and seafood processing industries, often undocumented in other countries also, are subjected to forced labor conditions, and sometimes treated like&nbsp;slaves.</p>
<figure class="figure-centered"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/539591334.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Typical housing for migrant farmworkers in a work camp in Sampson County, in central North&nbsp;Carolina. <span>Getty Images</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>While paying more than jobs she could obtain in Honduras, the fish cutting job was hard for 38&ndash;year&ndash;old Marta Escoto, profiled by Robin Shulman in a 2007 article in <em>The Washington Post</em>. But she put up with it for the sake of her two young children, one of them a four&ndash;year&ndash;old daughter who couldn&rsquo;t walk and suffered from a gastrointestinal illness that prevented her from absorbing enough nutrition. Yet the fear of raids to which the Massachusetts fish&ndash;cutting industry was subjected a decade ago, in an earlier wave of anti&ndash;immigrant fervor, drove her to seek a job as a seamstress in a Massachusetts factory producing uniforms for U.S. soldiers. But misfortune struck there, too. Like the seafood processing plants, the New Bedford factory was raided by U.S. immigration officers; and although Marta had no criminal record, she was arrested and rapidly flown to a detention facility in Texas while her children were left alone in a day care center. Unlike many other immigrants swept up in those raids, Marta was ultimately lucky: She had a sister living in Massachusetts who could retrieve her children. And as a result of large political outcry in Massachusetts following those raids, with Senators John F. Kerry and Edward M. Kennedy strongly speaking out against them, Marta was released and could reunite with her two small children. But she remained without documents authorizing her to work and stay in the United States and would again be subject to deportation in the&nbsp;future.</p>
<figure class="figure-interactive economy__map">
<h3>Estimated undocumented immigrant population</h3>
<p>by state, 2014</p>
<p><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/economy__map.jpg" alt=""/></p>
<ul>
<li>10,000 or less</li>
<li>25,000 &ndash; 95,000</li>
<li>100,000 &ndash; 130,000</li>
<li>180,000 &ndash; 450,000</li>
<li>500,000 &ndash; 2,350,000</li>
</ul><figcaption>Source: Pew Research Center</figcaption></figure>
<p>Immigrant workers are actually having a net positive effect on the economy. Because of a native&ndash;born population that is both declining in numbers and increasing in age, the U.S. needs its immigrant workers. The portion of foreign&ndash;born now accounts for about 16 percent of the labor force, with immigrants and their children accounting for the vast majority of current and future workforce growth in the United States, If the number of immigrants to the United States was reduced&mdash;by deportation or barriers to further immigration&mdash;so that foreign&ndash;born represented only about 10 percent of the population, the number of working&ndash;age Americans in the coming decades would remain essentially static at the current number of 175 million. If, however, the proportion of foreign&ndash;born remains at the current level, then the number of working&ndash;age residents in the U.S. will increase by about 30 million in the next 50 years. We need these workers not just to fill jobs but to increase productivity, which has diminished sharply. We also need them because the number of the elderly drawing expensive benefits like Medicare and Social Security&mdash;the costs of which are paid for by workers&rsquo; taxes&mdash;is growing substantially. Nearly 44 million people aged 65 or older currently draw Social Security; in 2050 that number is estimated to rise to 86 million. Even undocumented workers support Social Security: Since at least 1.8 million were working with fake Social Security cards in 2010 in order to get employment but were mostly unable to draw the benefits, they contributed $13 billion that year into the retirement trust fund, and took out only $1&nbsp;billion.</p>
<figure class="figure-right"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/RTR1OTXO.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Counterfeit Social Security cards confiscated by ICE&nbsp;agents. <span>Reuters</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>If immigrants are not stealing U.S. jobs and suppressing wages to any significant extent, is NAFTA doing so? Sal Moceri, a 61&ndash;year&ndash;old Ford worker in Michigan, fervently believes so. He has not lost his job himself, but he saw his co&ndash;workers and neighbors lose jobs and sees new workers accepting lower wages for which he would not settle. Although he calls himself a &ldquo;lifelong Democrat,&rdquo; he voted for Trump in 2016 because of Trump&rsquo;s promise to renegotiate or end NAFTA. In a CNNMoney interview with Heather Long, he blamed NAFTA for the job losses and decreases in wages around him, disbelieving the claims of economists that automation, not NAFTA, is the source of the job losses in U.S. manufacturing. He loves automation and hates&nbsp;NAFTA.</p>
<p>But contrary to Trump&rsquo;s claim and Moceri&rsquo;s passionate belief, NAFTA has not siphoned off a large number of U.S. jobs. It did force some U.S. workers to find other kinds of work, but the net number of jobs that was lost is relatively small, with estimates varying between 116,400 and 851,700, out of 146,135,000 jobs in the U.S. economy. Countering these losses is the fact that the bilateral trade fostered by NAFTA has had far&ndash;reaching positive effects on the&nbsp;economy.</p>
<p>The trade agreement eliminated tariffs on half of the industrial goods exported to Mexico from the United States (tariffs which before NAFTA averaged 10 percent), and eliminated other Mexican protectionist measures as well, allowing, for example, the export of corn from the United States to&nbsp;Mexico.</p>
<aside class="nugget nugget--display-left" id="nugget-economy-2">
<p>2016 U.S.-Mexico goods &amp; services trade:<strong><sub>$</sub>580<sub>bn</sub></strong></p>
</aside>
<p>NAFTA has enabled the development of joint production lines between the United States and Mexico and allows the U.S. to more cheaply import components used for manufacturing in the United States. Without this kind of co&ndash;operation, many jobs would be lost, including jobs provided by cars imported from Mexico. In 2016, for example, the United States imported 1.6 million cars from Mexico&mdash;but about 40 percent of the value of their components was produced in the United States. Leaving NAFTA could jeopardize 31,000 jobs in the automotive industry in the United States alone. But now that it is threatened with the collapse or renegotiation of NAFTA, Mexico has already begun actively exploring new trade partnerships with Europe and&nbsp;China.</p>
<p>The big picture: Mexico is the third largest U.S. trade partner after China and Canada, and the third&ndash;largest supplier of U.S. imports. Some 79 percent of Mexico&rsquo;s total exports in 2013 went to the United States. Yes, the United States had a $64.3 billion deficit with Mexico in 2016, but trade with Mexico is a two&ndash;way street. The United States <em>exports</em> more to Mexico than to any other country except Canada, its other NAFTA partner. Moreover, the half trillion dollars in goods and services traded between Mexico and the United States each year since NAFTA was enacted over 23 years ago has resulted in millions of jobs for workers in both countries. According to a Woodrow Wilson Center study, nearly five million U.S. jobs now depend on trade with&nbsp;Mexico.</p>
<p>Trade, investment, joint production, and travel across the U.S.&ndash;Mexico border remain a way of life for border communities, including those in the United States. Disrupting them will create substantial economic costs for both countries. And a significantly weakened Mexican economy will also exacerbate Mexico&rsquo;s severe criminal violence and encourage violence&ndash;driven immigration to the United&nbsp;States.</p>
</section>
<div id="communities-and-environment" class="curtain">
<figure><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/107522001.jpg" alt="The U.S.-Mexico border fence through the Sonoran Desert, in the Tohono O&rsquo;odham Reservation, Arizona. Getty Images"/></figure>
</div>
<section>
<p class="caption">The U.S.-Mexico border fence through the Sonoran Desert, in the Tohono O&rsquo;odham Reservation, Arizona. <span>Getty Images</span></p>
<h2>What the <strong>wall</strong> would do to communities and the&nbsp;environment</h2>
<p>If erected, Trump&rsquo;s wall will not be the first significant barrier to be built on the border. That distinction goes to the 700&ndash;mile fence the U.S. began to put up&mdash;over protests from those on both sides of the border&mdash;some years&nbsp;ago.</p>
<p>These people include 26 federally&ndash;recognized Native American Nations in the U.S. and eight Indigenous Peoples in Mexico. The border on which the wall is to be built cuts through their tribal homelands and separates tribal members from their relatives and their sacred sites, while also sundering them from the natural environment which is crucial not just to their livelihoods but to their cultural and religious identity. In recognition of this problem, the U.S. Congress passed an act in 1983 allowing free travel across the borders within their homelands to one of the Native American Nations tribes. But when the fence was built, by waiving statutes like the National Historic Preservation Act of 1966, the Native American Graves Protection and Repatriation Act of 1990, and the American Indian Religious Freedom Act of 1994, Congress compromised that freedom of travel and made it hard for indigenous people to visit their family members and sacred&nbsp;sites.</p>
<figure class="figure-inline"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/659604356.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Indigenous people from the Tohono O&rsquo;odham Reservation protest against a border&nbsp;wall. <span>Getty Images</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>Trump&rsquo;s wall will, of course, exacerbate the damage to these Native American communities, causing great pain and anger among the inhabitants. &ldquo;If someone came into your house and built a wall in your living room, tell me, how would you feel about that?&rdquo; asked Verlon Jose, vice chairman of the Tohono O&rsquo;odham Nation, in an interview by <em>The New York Times</em>&rsquo; Fernanda Santos in February 2017. Stretching out his arms to embrace the saguaro desert around him, he said, &ldquo;This is our home.&rdquo; Many in his tribe want to resist the construction of the wall. Others fear that if the border barrier is weaker on the tribal land, drug smuggling will be funneled there as happened before with the fence, harming and ensnarling the&nbsp;community.</p>
<figure class="figure-right figure-map"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/tohono-map.png" alt=""/></figure>
<p>As Native American communities, conservation biologists, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service all have highlighted, the wall will also have significant environmental costs in areas that host some of the greatest biodiversity in North America. Deriving its name from the isolated mountain ranges whose 10,000&ndash;foot peaks thrust into the skies, the &ldquo;Sky Islands&rdquo; region spanning southeastern Arizona, southwestern New Mexico, and northwestern Mexico, for example, features a staggering array of flora and fauna. Its precious, but fragile, biodiversity is due to the unusual convergence of four major ecoregions: the southern terminus of the temperate Rocky Mountains; the eastern extent of the low&ndash;elevation Sonoran Desert; the northern edge of the subtropical Sierra Madre Occidental; and the western terminus of the higher&ndash;elevation Chihuahuan Desert. Among the endangered species that will be affected by the wall are the jaguar, Sonoran pronghorn, Chiricahua leopard frog, lesser long&ndash;nose bat, Cactus ferruginous pygmy&ndash;owl, Mexican gray wolf, black&ndash;tailed prairie dog, jaguarondi, ocelot, and American bison. Other negatively&ndash;affected species will include desert tortoise, black bear, desert mule deer, and a variety of snakes. Even species that can fly, such as Rufous hummingbirds and Swainson and Gray hawks could be harmed, and vital insect pollinators that migrate across the border could be burnt up by the lights necessary to illuminate the&nbsp;wall.</p>
<figure class="figure-centered"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/RTR2QXMO.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Bison on the grasslands of Rancho “El Uno” in northern Mexico. <span>Reuters</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>Altogether, more than 100 species of animals that occur along the U.S.&ndash;Mexico border, in the Sky Islands area as well as in the Big Bend National Park in Texas and in the Rio Grande Valley, are endangered or threatened. But just as the DHS waived numerous cultural protection statutes to build the fence, it also overrode many crucial environmental laws&mdash;including the Endangered Species Act of 1973, the Migratory Bird Treaty Act of 1918, the National Environmental Policy Act of 1970, the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972, and the Clean Water Act of 1972. The Trump administration wants to bulldoze through any remaining environmental&nbsp;considerations.</p>
<figure class="figure-right"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/boll-weavil.png" alt=""/></figure>
<p>The administration&rsquo;s approach threatens years of binational environmental border cooperation that has protected not only many wild species, but also agriculture on both sides of the border. Take the boll weevil, a beetle that flies between Mexico and the United States and devastates cotton crops. In the late 1890s, the boll weevil nearly wiped out the U.S. cotton industry. Since then, the United States and Mexico have spent decades trying to eradicate the pest and almost succeeded. But the wall may so sour U.S.&ndash;Mexico environmental and security cooperation that Mexico may simply give up on eradication efforts. This will cause little damage to those in Mexico, since there is little cotton cultivation along that part of the Mexican border, but it will result in significant damage to U.S.&nbsp;farmers.</p>
<p>A poisoned U.S.&ndash;Mexican relationship could also prevent the renegotiation of water sharing agreements that are critical to the environment as well as to water and food security, and to farming. For example, the 1970 Boundary Treaty between the United States and Mexico specifies that officials from both the U.S. and Mexico must agree if either side wants to build any structure that could affect the flow of the Rio Grande or its flood waters, water that is vital to livestock and agriculture along the border. The fence was built despite Mexico&rsquo;s objections to it, and because its steel slats become clogged with debris during the rainy season, it has caused floods affecting cities and previously protected areas on both sides of the border, resulting in millions of dollars in&nbsp;damages.</p>
<figure class="figure-centered"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/182801125.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The Rio Grande curving through Big Bend Ranch State Park,&nbsp;Texas. <span>Getty Images</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>It wasn&rsquo;t just Mexico that didn&rsquo;t want that fence. U.S. farmers and businessmen along the Texas border in the Rio Grande valley opposed it, too, since it blocks their access to the river water and also augments the severity of floods. Now the wall is to be brought to flood plain areas in Texas where water issues precisely like these had prevented the construction of the fence&nbsp;before.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, manufacturing, agriculture, hydraulic fracking, energy production, and ecosystems on both sides of the border depend on equitable and effective water sharing from the Rio Grande and the Colorado River, with both sides vulnerable to water scarcities. Over the decades there have been many challenges to the joint agreements governing water usage, and both Mexico and the U.S. have at times considered themselves the aggrieved parties. But in general, U.S.&ndash;Mexico cooperation over both the Rio Grande and Colorado rivers has been exceptional by international standards and has been hugely beneficial to both partners to the various treaties. That kind of co&ndash;operation is now at&nbsp;risk.</p>
<blockquote><p>U.S.&ndash;Mexico cooperation over both the Rio Grande and Colorado rivers has been exceptional by international standards and has been hugely beneficial to both&nbsp;partners</p></blockquote>
<p>If in retaliation for the Trump administration&rsquo;s vitriolic, anti&ndash;Mexican language and policies, Mexico decided not live up to its side of the water bargain, U.S. farmers and others along the Rio Grande would be under severe threat of losing their livelihoods. One of them is Dale Murden in Monte Alto, who on his 20,000&ndash;acre farm cultivates sugarcane, grapefruit, cotton, citrus, and grain. Named in January 2017 the Citrus King of Texas, the former Texas Farm Bureau state director has dedicated his life to agriculture in southern Texas, relying on a Latino workforce. Yet he has memories of devastating water shortages in 2011 and 2013, when because of a severe drought Mexico could not send its allocation of the Rio Conches to the United States and 30 percent of his land became unproductive, with many crops dying. At that time he hoped that the U.S. State Department could persuade Mexico to release some water, even as Mexican farmers were also facing immense water shortages and devastation. U.S. diplomacy did work, no doubt helped by the rain that replenished Mexico&rsquo;s tributaries of the Rio Grande. Without the rain, Mexico would not have been able to pay back its accumulated water debt. But without collaborative U.S.&ndash;Mexico diplomacy and an atmosphere of a closer&ndash;than&ndash;ever U.S.&ndash;Mexico cooperation, Mexico still could have failed to deliver the water despite the rain. That positive spirit of cooperation also produced one of the world&rsquo;s most enlightened, environmentally&ndash;sensitive, and water&ndash;use&ndash;savvy version of a water treaty, the so&ndash;called Minute 319 of the 1944 Colorado River U.S.&ndash;Mexico water agreement. Unique in its recognition of the Colorado River delta as a water user, the update committed the United States to sending a so&ndash;called &ldquo;pulse flow&rdquo; to that ecosystem, thus helping to restore those unique wetlands. The United States also agreed to pay $18 million for water conservation in Mexico. In turn, Mexico delivered 124,000 acre&ndash;feet of Mexican water to Lake Mead. It was a win&ndash;win&ndash;win: for U.S. farmers, Mexican farmers, and ecosystems. But those were the good days of the U.S.&ndash;Mexico relationship, before the Trump administration. A new update to the treaty is under negotiation&mdash;once again a vital agreement and a lifeline for some 40 million people on both sides of the border that could fall prey to the Trump administration&rsquo;s approach to&nbsp;Mexico.</p>
<figure class="figure-inline figure-map"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/river-basins.png" alt="River basins of the Colorado river and Rio Grande."/></figure>
<p>Yet this is a moment when maintaining cooperation is crucial because climate&ndash;change&ndash;increased evaporation rates, invasive plant infestation, and greater demands for water around the border and deep into U.S. and Mexican territories will only put further pressure on water use and increase the likelihood of severe&nbsp;scarcity.</p>
</section>
<section class="conclusion">
<p><strong>Rather than a line of separation,</strong> the border should be conceived of as a membrane, connecting the tissues of communities on both sides, enabling mutually beneficial trade, manufacturing, ecosystem improvements, and security, while enhancing inter&ndash;cultural&nbsp;exchanges.</p>
<p>In 1971, When First Lady Pat Nixon attended the inauguration of Friendship Park&mdash;that tragic place that allows separated families only the most limited amount of contact&mdash;she said, &ldquo;I hope there won&rsquo;t be a fence here too long.&rdquo; She supported two&ndash;way positive exchanges between the United States and Mexico, not barriers. In fact, for her visit, she had the fence in Friendship Park torn down. Unfortunately, it&rsquo;s still there, bigger, taller, and harder than when she visited, and with the wall about to get much worse&nbsp;yet.</p>
</section>
<section class="author"><img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2017/the-wall/assets/images/felbabbrown-hires.jpg" alt=""/>
<p><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.brookings.edu/experts/vanda-felbab-brown/"><strong>Vanda Felbab-Brown</strong></a> is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. She is an expert on international and internal conflicts and nontraditional security threats, including insurgency, organized crime, urban violence, and illicit economies. Her fieldwork and research have covered, among others, Afghanistan, South Asia, Burma, Indonesia, the Andean region, Mexico, Morocco, Somalia, and eastern Africa. Her books include <em>The Extinction Market: Wildlife Trafficking and How to Counter It</em> (Hurst, 2017) and <em>Shooting Up: Counterinsurgency and the War on Drugs</em> (Brookings Institution Press, 2010). She received her doctorate in political science from MIT and her bachelor&rsquo;s from Harvard&nbsp;University.</p>
</section>
<section class="references"><label class="references__button" for="references__trigger">References</label>
<div class="references__wrapper">
<h4>Price Tag</h4>
<p><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~cmsny.org/publications/jmhs-visa-overstays-border-wall/"><span>&ldquo;</span>such a wall will be irrelevant to those people who become undocumented immigrants by overstaying their&nbsp;visas&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://transborder.bts.gov/programs/international/transborder/TBDR_BC/TBDR_BCTSA.html"><span>&ldquo;</span>Traffickers hide their illicit cargo in secret, state-of-the art&nbsp;compartments&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.secretariadoejecutivo.gob.mx/docs/pdfs/cifras de homicidio doloso secuestro etc/HDSECEXTRV_012017.pdf"><span>&ldquo;</span>violence claimed between 21,000 and 23,000&nbsp;lives&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/the-staggering-death-toll-of-mexicos-drug-war/"><span>&ldquo;</span>177,000 people were murdered in&nbsp;Mexico&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.gao.gov/assets/680/674570.pdf"><span>&ldquo;</span>these seizures still likely represented only a fraction of the weapons&nbsp;smuggled&rdquo;</a></p>
<h4>Smuggling</h4>
<p><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/analysis/Crime_in_2015_A_Final_Analysis.pdf"><span>&ldquo;</span>This increase was largely driven by three&nbsp;cities&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004723521630160X"><span>&ldquo;</span>troubled relations between residents and&nbsp;police&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~urbanlabs.uchicago.edu/attachments/store/2435a5d4658e2ca19f4f225b810ce0dbdb9231cbdb8d702e784087469ee3/UChicagoCrimeLab+Gun+Violence+in+Chicago+2016.pdf"><span>&ldquo;</span>but continued rising in&nbsp;Chicago&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/article-abstract/2594804"><span>&ldquo;</span>The vast majority of violent&nbsp;crimes&rdquo;</a></p>
<h4>Crime</h4>
<p><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07418825.2012.659200"><span>&ldquo;</span>foreign-born individuals commit much lower levels of&nbsp;crime&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.ppic.org/content/pubs/cacounts/CC_208KBCC.pdf"><span>&ldquo;</span>U.S.-born men were incarcerated at a rate 2.5 times higher than foreign-born&nbsp;men&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0003122416663494"><span>&ldquo;</span>then they stop reporting&nbsp;crime&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.amazon.com/American-Homicide-Randolph-Roth/dp/0674064119"><span>&ldquo;</span>and homicides&nbsp;increase&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.migrationpolicy.org/article/obama-record-deportations-deporter-chief-or-not"><span>&ldquo;</span>Almost all … of the remaining 15 percent had been convicted of serious&nbsp;crimes&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23550/the-economic-and-fiscal-consequences-of-immigration"><span>&ldquo;</span>newest immigrants are often willing to work for less than their&nbsp;competition&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.pewhispanic.org/2015/03/26/share-of-unauthorized-immigrant-workers-in-production-construction-jobs-falls-since-2007/"><span>&ldquo;</span>Sectors with large numbers of undocumented workers&nbsp;include&rdquo;</a></p>
<h4>U.S. Economy</h4>
<p><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~asia.floorwage.org/workersvoices/reports/raising-the-floor-for-supply-chain-workers-perspective-from-u-s-seafood-supply-chains/view"><span>&ldquo;</span>are subjected to forced labor&nbsp;conditions&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/17/AR2007031701113.html"><span>&ldquo;</span>profiled by Robin Shulman in a 2007 article in The Washington&nbsp;Post&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=23550"><span>&ldquo;</span>16 percent of the labor&nbsp;force&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/08/immigration-projected-to-drive-growth-in-u-s-working-age-population-through-at-least-2035/"><span>&ldquo;</span>would remain essentially static at the current number of 175&nbsp;million&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/09/undocumented-immigrants-and-taxes/499604/"><span>&ldquo;</span>and took out only $1&nbsp;billion&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~money.cnn.com/2017/02/16/news/economy/donald-trump-nafta/"><span>&ldquo;</span>In a CNNMoney interview with Heather&nbsp;Long&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/1/24/14363148/trade-deals-nafta-wto-china-job-loss-trump"><span>&ldquo;</span>with estimates varying between 116,400&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~econpapers.repec.org/article/elgrokejn/v_3a2_3ay_3a2014_3ai_3a4_3ap429-441.htm"><span>&ldquo;</span>out of 146,135,000 jobs in the U.S.&nbsp;economy&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32934.pdf"><span>&ldquo;</span>79 percent of Mexico’s total exports in&nbsp;2013&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2010.html"><span>&ldquo;</span>the United States had a $64.3 billion deficit with Mexico in&nbsp;2016&rdquo;</a></p>
<h4>Communities &amp; Environment</h4>
<p><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/final-report-growing-together-economic-ties-between-the-united-states-and-mexico"><span>&ldquo;</span>nearly five million U.S. jobs now depend on trade with&nbsp;Mexico&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/us/border-wall-tribe.html"><span>&ldquo;</span>in an interview by The New York Times’ Fernanda Santos in February&nbsp;2017&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.defenders.org/sites/default/files/publications/march_2005_border_ecological_symposium.pdf"><span>&ldquo;</span>and the western terminus of the higher-elevation Chihuahuan Desert  … and American&nbsp;bison&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/01/27/endangered-animals-are-already-cut-off-by-a-border-wall-trump-wants-it-much-bigger/?utm_term=.eb86e38ffa30"><span>&ldquo;</span>a variety of&nbsp;snakes&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.banderasnews.com/0609/eden-animalmigration.htm"><span>&ldquo;</span>could be burnt up by the lights necessary to illuminate the&nbsp;wall&rdquo;</a><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.texasobserver.org/on-the-border-a-struggle-over-water/"><span>&ldquo;</span>Yet he has memories of devastating water shortages in 2011 and&nbsp;2013&rdquo;</a></p></div>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Susan B. Glasser]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Dec 2016 13:30:22 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Covering Politics in a Post-Truth America Covering Politics in a &ldquo;Post-Truth&rdquo; Washington : Journalism has never been better, thanks to these last few decades of disruption. So why does it seem to matter so little? Reflections on the media in the age of&nbsp;Trump. Susan B.&nbsp;Glasser December 2, 2016 For the last two decades, the rules&hellip;<div style="clear:both;padding-top:0.2em;"><a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/28/237279162/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/fblike20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/29/237279162/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay,https%3a%2f%2fc24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com%2finteractives%2f2016%2fessay-2016-10-washington-disrupted%2fassets%2fimages%2fprint.png"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/pinterest20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/24/237279162/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/twitter20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/19/237279162/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/email20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/_/20/237279162/BrookingsRSS/series/TheBrookingsEssay"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/rss20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&nbsp;&#160;</div>]]>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By Susan B. Glasser</p><div id="tbe-201610">
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<h1>Covering Politics in a &ldquo;Post-Truth&rdquo; Washington
<br>
					<span class="text-hidden">:</span></h1>
<p>Journalism has never been better, thanks to these last few decades of disruption. So why does it seem to matter so little? Reflections on the media in the age of&nbsp;Trump.</p>
</div>
</header>
<section class="info">
			<span>Susan B.&nbsp;Glasser</span>
<br>
			<span>December 2, 2016</span>
<br>
		</section>
<section>
<p><strong>For the last two decades, the rules of political reporting have been&nbsp;blown up.</strong> And I&rsquo;ve cheered at every step along the way. Not for me the mourning over the dismantling of the old order, all those lamentations about the lost golden era of print newspapers thudding on doorsteps and the sage evening news anchors reporting back to the nation on their White House briefings. Because, let&rsquo;s face it: too much of Washington journalism in the celebrated good old days was an old boys&rsquo; club, and so was politics—they were smug, insular, often narrow-minded, and invariably convinced of their own&nbsp;rightness.</p>
<p>The truth is that coverage of American politics, and the capital that revolves around it, is in many ways much better now than ever before—faster, sharper, and far more sophisticated. There are great new digital news organizations for politics and policy obsessives, political science wonks, and national security geeks. Today&rsquo;s beat reporters on Capitol Hill are as a rule doing a far better job than I did when I was a rookie there two decades ago, and we get more reporting and insight live from the campaign trail in a day than we used to get in a month, thanks to Google and Facebook, livestreaming and Big Data, and all the rest. Access to information—by, for, and about the government and those who aspire to run it—is dazzling and on a scale wholly unimaginable when Donald Trump was hawking his <em>Art of the Deal</em> in 1987. And we have millions of readers for our work now, not merely a hyper-elite few&nbsp;thousand.</p>
<blockquote><p>The media scandal of 2016 isn&rsquo;t so much about what reporters failed to tell the American public; it&rsquo;s about what they did report on, and the fact that it didn&rsquo;t seem to&nbsp;matter.</p></blockquote>
<p>But this is 2016, and Trump has just been elected president of the United States after a campaign that tested pretty much all of our assumptions about the power of the press. Yes, we are now being accused—and accusing ourselves—of exactly the sort of smug, inside-the-Beltway myopia we thought we were getting rid of with the advent of all these new platforms. I&rsquo;m as angry as everybody else at the catastrophic failure of those fancy election-forecasting models that had us expecting an 85 percent or even a ridiculous 98 percent—thanks Huffington Post!—chance of a Hillary Clinton victory. All that breathless cable coverage of Trump&rsquo;s Twitter wars and the live shots of his plane landing on the tarmac didn&#8217;t help either. And Facebook and the other social media sites should rightfully be doing a lot of soul-searching about their role as the most efficient distribution network for conspiracy theories, hatred, and outright falsehoods ever&nbsp;invented.</p>
<figure class="figure-centered">
				<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2016/essay-2016-10-washington-disrupted/assets/images/donald-trump.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>President-elect Donald Trump at a campaign event in Wilmington, Ohio days before the election. Trump won the battleground state, helping to deliver him the presidency. <span>Reuters</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>As editor of <em>Politico</em> throughout this never-to-be-forgotten campaign, I&rsquo;ve been obsessively looking back over our coverage, too, trying to figure out what we missed along the way to the upset of the century and what we could have done differently. (An early conclusion: while we were late to understand how angry white voters were, a perhaps even more serious lapse was in failing to recognize how many disaffected Democrats there were who would stay home rather than support their party&rsquo;s flawed candidate.) But journalistic handwringing aside, I still think reporting about American politics is better in many respects than it&rsquo;s ever&nbsp;been.</p>
<p>I have a different and more existential fear today about the future of independent journalism and its role in our democracy. And you should too. Because the media scandal of 2016 isn&rsquo;t so much about what reporters failed to tell the American public; it&rsquo;s about what they did report on, and the fact that it didn&rsquo;t seem to matter. Stories that would have killed any other politician—truly worrisome revelations about everything from the federal taxes Trump dodged to the charitable donations he lied about, the women he insulted and allegedly assaulted, and the mob ties that have long dogged him—did not stop Trump from thriving in this election year. Even fact-checking perhaps the most untruthful candidate of our lifetime didn&rsquo;t work; the more news outlets did it, the less the facts resonated. Tellingly, a few days after the election, the Oxford Dictionaries announced that &ldquo;post-truth&rdquo; had been chosen as the 2016 word of the year, defining it as a condition &ldquo;in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal&nbsp;belief.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Meantime, Trump personally blacklisted news organizations like <em>Politico</em> and <em>The Washington Post</em> when they published articles he didn&rsquo;t like during the campaign, has openly mused about rolling back press freedoms enshrined by the U.S. Supreme Court, and has now named Stephen Bannon, until recently the executive chairman of Breitbart—a right-wing fringe website with a penchant for conspiracy theories and anti-Semitic tropes—to serve as one of his top White House advisers. Needless to say, none of this has any modern precedent. And what makes it unique has nothing to do with the outcome of the election. This time, the victor was a right-wing demagogue; next time, it may be a left-wing populist who learns the lessons of Trump&rsquo;s&nbsp;win.</p>
<p>Of course, there&rsquo;s always been a fair measure of cynicism—and more than a bit of demagoguery—in American politics and among those who cover it, too. But I&rsquo;ve come to believe that 2016 is not just another skirmish in the eternal politicians versus the press tug of war. Richard Nixon may have had his &ldquo;enemies list&rdquo; among the media, but the difference is that today Trump as well as his Democratic adversaries have the same tools to create, produce, distribute, amplify, or distort news as the news industry itself—and are increasingly figuring out how to use them. The bully pulpits, those of the press and the pols, have proliferated, and it&rsquo;s hard not to feel as though we&rsquo;re witnessing a sort of revolutionary chaos: the old centers of power have been torn down, but the new ones have neither the authority nor the legitimacy of those they&rsquo;ve superseded. This is no mere academic argument. The election of 2016 showed us that Americans are increasingly choosing to live in a cloud of like-minded spin, surrounded by the partisan political hackery and fake news that poisons their Facebook feeds. Nature, not to mention Donald Trump, abhors a&nbsp;vacuum.</p>
<p>It&rsquo;s certainly been fun storming the castle over these last couple decades. But it&rsquo;s hard not to look at what just happened in this crazy election without worrying: Did we finally just burn it down?  And how, anyways, did we get&nbsp;here?</p>
</section>
<div class="curtain">
<figure>
				<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2016/essay-2016-10-washington-disrupted/assets/images/media-essay.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Three decades ago, the round-the-clock political information and access that we enjoy today was unimaginable. <span>Brookings/Mark Williams Hoelscher</span></figcaption></figure>
</div>
<section>
<h2>Reporting like it&rsquo;s&nbsp;1989</h2>
<p>I first came to work in Washington at the back end of the 1980s, during the second-term funk of the Reagan Revolution, as the city obsessed over the Iran-Contra scandal and the rise of rabble-rousing conservatives on Capitol Hill led by a funny-haired guy named Newt Gingrich. Within a few years, Gingrich and Co. would launch an ethics investigation to take out a powerful Speaker of the House, Texan Jim Wright, who left town warning of the new age of &ldquo;mindless cannibalism&rdquo; they had unleashed. It was the twilight of the Cold War, even if we didn&rsquo;t realize it at the time. One November afternoon during my junior year in college I took a nap and when I went downstairs a short while later, I found the security guard in the dorm lobby staring incredulously at a tiny portable TV that had suddenly materialized on his desk. The Berlin Wall had come down while I was sleeping, and it didn&rsquo;t take an international relations scholar to figure out that pretty much everything, including our politics here at home, was about to&nbsp;change.</p>
<p>To help us understand it all, there were choices, but not that many: three TV networks that mattered, ABC, CBS, and NBC; two papers for serious journalism, <em>The New York Times</em> and <em>The Washington Post</em>; and two giant-circulation weekly newsmagazines, <em>Time</em> and <em>Newsweek</em>. That, plus whatever was your local daily newspaper, pretty much constituted the news. Whether it was Walter Cronkite or <em>The New York Times</em>, they preached journalistic &ldquo;objectivity&rdquo; and spoke with authority when they pronounced on the day&rsquo;s developments—but not always with the depth and expertise that real competition or deep specialization might have provided. They were great—but they were generalists. And because it was such a small in-crowd, they were readily subject to manipulation; the big media crisis of the Reagan era was all about the ease with which the journalists could be spun or otherwise coopted into the Hollywood-produced story line coming out of Reagan&rsquo;s media savvy White House, which understood that a good picture was worth more than thousands of words, no matter how hard-hitting.</p>
<p>Eventually, I came to think of the major media outlets of that era as something very similar to the big suburban shopping malls we flocked to in the age of shoulder pads and supply-side economics: We could choose among Kmart and Macy&rsquo;s and Saks Fifth Avenue as our budgets and tastes allowed, but in the end the media were all essentially department stores, selling us sports and stock tables and foreign news alongside our politics, whether we wanted them or not. It may not have been a monopoly, but it was something pretty&nbsp;close.</p>
<p>Which was why I felt lucky to have landed at a newspaper that was an early harbinger of the media revolution to come. My dad, an early and proud media disruptor himself since the days when he and my mother founded <em>Legal Times</em>, a weekly dedicated to &ldquo;law and lobbying in the nation&rsquo;s capital,&rdquo; had steered me to <em>Roll Call</em> after seeing a story about it buried in the <em>Post</em>&rsquo;s business section in the spring of 1987. A sort of old-fashioned community bulletin board for Capitol Hill, it had been around for decades but had just been bought for $500,000 by Arthur Levitt, chairman of the American Stock Exchange. Under its new management, <em>Roll Call</em> would now aspire to create real original reporting and scoops for an exclusive audience made up of members of Congress—and the thousands of staffers, lobbyists, political consultants, and activists who served them or sought to influence them. I saw this as an unalloyed good: more tough, independent reporting about an institution that sorely needed&nbsp;it.</p>
<p>This was a pretty radical departure for a quirky tabloid that had been launched by a Hill aide named Sidney Yudain just as the McCarthy era was ending in the 1950s. By the &lsquo;80s, his <em>Roll Call</em> was celebrating a Congress that hardly existed anymore, a hoary institution of eating clubs with silly names, of boarding houses on the Hill where members of both parties holed up without their families while Congress was in session. The paper was perhaps best known for the Hill staffer of the week feature—invariably an attractive young woman—that Sid used to run on page 2 each edition; his most famous model was Elizabeth Ray, who posed vamping on a desk a few years before she admitted to reporters that she couldn&rsquo;t type, file, or &ldquo;even answer the phone&rdquo; though she was a $14,000-a-year secretary to Rep. Wayne&nbsp;Hays.</p>
<figure class="figure-left">
				<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2016/essay-2016-10-washington-disrupted/assets/images/roll-call.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A 1965 edition of <em>Roll&nbsp;Call</em> featured &ldquo;Congress of Beauty.&rdquo; <em>Roll&nbsp;Call</em> began life as a weekly tabloid detailing the news and gossip of Capitol Hill. It now reports on legislative and political activity in Washington, DC and around the nation. <span>Getty&nbsp;Images</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>Jim Glassman, <em>Roll Call</em>&rsquo;s new editor and publisher, hit on a very different formula for the paper. In this day and age when we celebrate new technology as the source of all media innovation, it seems decidedly retro, but it worked, as both journalism and a business: He hired a staff of aggressive young reporters—I started as an intern in the summer of 1987, then returned full-time after graduating in 1990—and set them loose on the backstage news of Washington. Let <em>Congressional Quarterly</em> send legions of scribes to write down what was said at dull committee hearings, he decreed; <em>Roll Call</em> would skip the boring analyses of policy to cover what really mattered to DC—the process and the people. To make it a must-read, Jim had another rule that made lots of sense: Nothing on our front page should have appeared anywhere else. If it wasn&rsquo;t exclusive, he didn&rsquo;t want it. Everybody was already reading <em>The Washington Post</em>; why would they bother with <em>Roll Call</em>, he figured, if it couldn&rsquo;t deliver stories no one else&nbsp;had?</p>
<p>Soon his reporters were delivering. One of them, Tim Burger, broke the story of the massive overdrafts by free-spending congressmen that would become known as the House Bank scandal, contributing to the exit of dozens of members in the 1992 elections and helping set the stage for the 1994 Gingrich revolution, when Republicans would finally take back control of the House of Representatives for the first time in more than forty years. The ad revenues were flowing too; Jim had found that by making <em>Roll Call</em> a must-read on Capitol Hill and unleashing far more reporting firepower on previously unaccountable dark corners of the Washington power game, he had scores of companies and lobbying groups eager to buy what was now branded &ldquo;issue advocacy&rdquo; advertising. Until then, those groups had been paying $50,000 or more for a full-page ad in the <em>Post</em> to reach those whose attention they sought—members of Congress and their staffers—along with hundreds of thousands of readers who were basically irrelevant to them. <em>Roll Call</em> undercut the competition, at first charging as little as a few thousand dollars per page to target, far more efficiently, the audience that the advertisers wanted. Soon, we were coming out twice a week. The scoops—and the ads—kept rolling&nbsp;in.</p>
<p>Within just a few years, <em>Roll Call</em> had been sold to The Economist Group for $10 million. Not long after, when I met Bo Jones, then the publisher of <em>The Washington Post</em>, the first thing he said to me was what a mistake the <em>Post</em> had made by not buying <em>Roll Call</em> itself. The fragmenting of the media had&nbsp;begun.</p>
</section>
<section>
<h2>When news traveled slowly &hellip; DC before the&nbsp;web</h2>
<p>This was still journalism in the scarcity era, and it affected everything from what stories we wrote to how fast we could produce them. Presidents could launch global thermonuclear war with the Russians in a matter of minutes, but news from the American hinterlands often took weeks to reach their sleepy capital. Even information within that capital was virtually unobtainable without a major investment of time and effort. Want to know how much a campaign was raising and spending from the new special-interest PACs that had proliferated? Prepare to spend a day holed up at the Federal Election Commission&rsquo;s headquarters down on E Street across from the hulking concrete FBI building, and be sure to bring a bunch of quarters for the copy machine. Looking for details about foreign countries lobbying in Washington or big companies paying huge fees? Only by going in person to the Justice Department or the Securities and Exchange Commission could you get it, and too often reporters in that fat, happy, almost-monopoly era didn&rsquo;t&nbsp;bother.</p>
<aside class="twitter-followers">
<h4>Twitter followers</h4>
<p>As of November 6, 2016</p>
<ul>
<li><span>The New York Times</span> <span>31.2</span></li>
<li><span>CNN</span> <span>29.1</span></li>
<li><span>The Economist</span> <span>16.8</span></li>
<li><span><em>Donald Trump</em></span> <span>12.9</span></li>
<li><span>Wall Street Journal</span> <span>12.1</span></li>
<li><span>Fox News</span> <span>11.4</span></li>
<li><span><em>Hillary Clinton</em></span> <span>10.1</span></li>
<li><span>Huffington Post</span> <span>&nbsp;&nbsp;8.1</span></li>
<li><span>The Washington Post</span> <span>&nbsp;&nbsp;7.7</span></li>
<li><span>NPR</span> <span>&nbsp;&nbsp;6.3</span></li>
</ul>
</aside>
<p>When I started reporting in Washington, once or twice a week we would gather around the conference table in <em>Roll Call</em>&rsquo;s offices near Union Station to sift through a large stack of clips from local newspapers around the country, organized by state and sold to us by a clipping service. Though the stories were sometimes weeks old by the time we were reading them, we&rsquo;d divvy up the pile to find nuggets that had not yet been reported to the political insiders in Washington: a new development in Connecticut&rsquo;s heated 5th Congressional District race, a House member under fire out in Oklahoma or Utah. It seems almost inconceivable in the Google-Twitter-always-on media world we live in now, but <em>Congressional Quarterly</em> charged us thousands of dollars a year for this service, and we&nbsp;paid.</p>
<p>Soon enough, CQ wasn&rsquo;t selling those clips anymore—that line of business having been disrupted not by the internet, which was still in its balky, dial-up, you&rsquo;ve-got-AOL-mail stage, but by the fax machine. <em>The Hotline</em> was a faxed newsletter that came out late morning every day, a compilation of headlines and news nuggets from around the country. We were addicted to it. I remember the feeling of anticipation as its pages spilled off the machine and curled up on the floor while we pestered Jane, our copy editor, to make copies for each of&nbsp;us.</p>
<blockquote><p>Social media sites should rightfully be doing a lot of soul-searching about their role as the most efficient distribution network for conspiracy theories, hatred, and outright falsehoods ever&nbsp;invented.</p></blockquote>
<p>The same proliferation of news—and noise—was happening all over town. While we were busy reporting previously ignored stories the big guys didn&rsquo;t know or care about, the upstarts at cable news were filling not just one carefully edited nightly newscast but 24 hours a day with reports—and, increasingly, shouty partisan talk shows—about goings on in the capital. We all watched those too. Access to information has always been Washington&rsquo;s currency; speed up the news cycle, and we had no choice but to race ahead right along with&nbsp;it.</p>
<p>In 1998, I started work at <em>The Washington Post</em> as the investigative editor on the national desk. Little more than a week after my arrival, on January 17, 1998, at 9:32 on a Saturday night, Matt Drudge&rsquo;s website first leaked word of the blockbuster scandal that was about to engulf President Clinton and Monica Lewinsky. I had expected to edit stories about Clinton&rsquo;s aggressive fundraising in the White House, not his dalliance with a former intern. But now it seemed that independent prosecutor Ken Starr&rsquo;s unprecedented probe could even force the president to quit, and I remember well the day we all stood riveted in front of the TVs in the <em>Post</em>&rsquo;s famous fifth-floor newsroom to watch Clinton&rsquo;s less-than-convincing denials of &ldquo;sexual relations with that woman.&rdquo; Over the weeks that followed, the internet drove a Washington news story as it never had before: The Drudge Report had proved beyond a doubt that the old gatekeepers of journalism would no longer serve as the final word when it came to what the world should&nbsp;know.</p>
<p>But some things didn&rsquo;t change as fast as all&nbsp;that.</p>
<figure class="figure-centered">
				<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2016/essay-2016-10-washington-disrupted/assets/images/monica-lewinsky.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>In this 1998 image, photographers surround White House intern Monica Lewinsky who was on her way to FBI headquarters during the investigation into her alleged affair with President Bill&nbsp;Clinton. <span>Getty Images</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>At the <em>Post</em>, I soon learned, internet access was still handed out as a privilege to individual editors on a need-to-have-it basis. Everyone else was expected to go to the paper&rsquo;s in-house library, where researchers would search the internet and various databases on our behalf and one could request paper files of moldering clips to inspect while pounding out a story on deadline. Needless to say, the wheels ground slowly. I may have been the assignment editor overseeing coverage of the spiraling investigation of the president of the United States, but it was only with much lobbying and obscure bureaucratic machinations that I arranged for a clunky dial-up external modem to land on my desk weeks into the&nbsp;scandal.</p>
<p>By the time the story culminated in a presidential confession and an unprecedented Senate impeachment trial and acquittal, the internet would no longer be considered a perk but a necessity for our news-gathering. My soon-to-be husband, White House reporter Peter Baker, would file the paper&rsquo;s first web-specific dispatches from the congressional impeachment debates. And when the slow machinery of government responded to the new, faster era by releasing its legal filings and document dumps electronically (then as now these would invariably occur late on Friday afternoons, preferably before a holiday weekend), we in turn responded by making them available online for all the world to see. In the end, the Lewinsky affair gave us more than the icky Starr report, with its talk of Lewinsky&rsquo;s blue dress and thong underwear and the inappropriate use of cigars in the Oval Office. Washington scandals would remain a constant in the coming decades, but how we covered them would be&nbsp;different.</p>
<p>Still, it remained a print world in ways that are hard even to imagine&nbsp;now.</p>
<figure class="figure-right">
				<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2016/essay-2016-10-washington-disrupted/assets/images/xando-cafe.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>People read the September 12, 1998 edition of <em>The Washington Post</em>. That day&lsquo;s paper featured a special section comprising the complete 41,000-word Starr Report on President&nbsp;Clinton. <span>Getty Images</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>The old presses shook the <em>Post</em> building starting around 10 p.m. each night just as they had for decades, and sometimes, if the news was big, as it often was during the 13 long months of the Lewinsky scandal, there would be a line of people waiting in front when the first edition came out around midnight. The nightly 6 p.m. front-page meetings in the old conference room with the framed &ldquo;Nixon Resigns&rdquo; headline staring down at us were taken very seriously, and the feverish lobbying for a spot on that page was an indication of how much we were all convinced it mattered. Although we had a website by then and published our articles on it each night, the national editors of the <em>Post</em> still trusted the more ancient methods of finding out what the competition was up to: at 9 p.m., the news aide in the New York bureau would be patched through on speakerphone as she held up her receiver to the radio, so that we could hear the announcer on the <em>New York Times</em>-owned WQXR radio station reading out the early headlines from the next day&rsquo;s <em>Times</em>. When the Starr report finally came out in September of 1998, we printed the entire thing—all 41,000 words—as a special section in the next day&rsquo;s newspaper, and the only debate I recall was not whether we should make such a sacrifice of trees when the whole thing was available online but whether and if to edit out any of the more overtly R-rated parts of the report on the president and his twenty-something girlfriend&rsquo;s White House&nbsp;antics.</p>
<p>At the end of the impeachment scandal, as Vice President Al Gore was busy blowing his lead over Texas Governor George W. Bush in the 2000 presidential race and an unknown former KGB agent named Vladimir Putin was rising from obscurity to emerge as Boris Yeltsin&rsquo;s handpicked successor as president of Russia, Peter and I decided to move to Moscow as foreign correspondents for the <em>Post</em>. Before we headed out, we went up to the ninth floor of the boxy old <em>Post</em> building on 15th Street in downtown Washington to say goodbye to owner Don Graham. As the conversation ended, we asked Don how the paper was doing. At this point, the <em>Post</em> still claimed the highest &ldquo;penetration&rdquo; rate of any big paper in the country among readers in its metropolitan area and had spent the boom decade of the 1990s investing $230 million in its physical printing presses while adding dozens of reporters to its newsroom, the vast majority devoted to local coverage of the fast-growing D.C.&nbsp;suburbs.</p>
<p>We&rsquo;ll be fine, Don told us, as long as the classified ads don&rsquo;t go&nbsp;away.</p>
<p>Four years later, when we returned from Moscow and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the classifieds were essentially gone. Soon to be followed by those pages and pages of Macy&rsquo;s ads and supermarket coupons. But hundreds of reporters and editors were still showing up at the giant newsroom each day to produce a print newspaper, while the website that would be its future—or its demise—was still largely an afterthought run by a team both legally and physically separated from the newsroom, across the Potomac River in a soulless office tower in Arlington, Virginia.</p>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Disrupting the&nbsp;disruptors</h2>
<p>It&rsquo;s hard even to conjure that media moment now. I am writing this in the immediate, shocking aftermath of a 2016 presidential election in which the Pew Research Center found that <a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.journalism.org/2016/02/04/the-2016-presidential-campaign-a-news-event-thats-hard-to-miss/">a higher percentage of Americans</a> got their information about the campaign from late-night TV comedy shows than from a national newspaper. Don Graham sold the <em>Post</em> three years ago and though its <a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.washingtonpost.com/pr/wp/2015/11/13/the-washington-post-shatters-previous-traffic-record-soaring-to-66-9-million-users-in-october/">online audience has been skyrocketing</a> with new investments from Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos, it will never be what it was in the &lsquo;80s. That same Pew survey reported that a mere 2 percent of Americans today turned to such newspapers as the &ldquo;most helpful&rdquo; guides to the presidential&nbsp;campaign.</p>
<figure class="figure-interactive election-sources">
<h3>Where do you get your election&nbsp;news?</h3>
<p>In the 2016 presidential race 18&ndash;29 years old say social media.
<br>Everyone else says cable news.</p>
<div>
<h4>18&ndash;29</h4>
<ul>
<li class="election-source-a active"><strong>35</strong> Social Media</li>
<li class="election-source-b"><strong>18</strong> News website/app</li>
<li class="election-source-c"><strong>12</strong> Cable TV news</li>
<li class="election-source-d"><strong>11</strong> Radio</li>
<li class="election-source-e"><strong>10</strong> Local TV</li>
<li class="election-source-f"><strong>6</strong> Late night comedy</li>
<li class="election-source-g"><strong>4</strong> Network nightly news</li>
<li class="election-source-h"><strong>2</strong> Issue-based group</li>
<li class="election-source-i"><strong>1</strong> Local paper in print</li>
<li class="election-source-j"><strong>1</strong> Candidate or campaign</li>
<li class="election-source-k"><strong>1</strong> National paper in print</li>
</ul></div>
<div>
<h4>30&ndash;49</h4>
<ul>
<li class="election-source-c"><strong>21</strong> Cable TV news</li>
<li class="election-source-b"><strong>19</strong> News website/app</li>
<li class="election-source-a active"><strong>15</strong> Social Media</li>
<li class="election-source-e"><strong>14</strong> Local TV</li>
<li class="election-source-d"><strong>13</strong> Radio</li>
<li class="election-source-g"><strong>7</strong> Network nightly news</li>
<li class="election-source-f"><strong>4</strong> Late night comedy</li>
<li class="election-source-i"><strong>2</strong> Local paper in print</li>
<li class="election-source-k"><strong>2</strong> National paper in print</li>
<li class="election-source-h"><strong>1</strong> Issue-based group</li>
<li class="election-source-j"><strong>1</strong> Candidate or campaign</li>
</ul></div>
<div>
<h4>50&ndash;64</h4>
<ul>
<li class="election-source-c"><strong>25</strong> Cable TV news</li>
<li class="election-source-e"><strong>19</strong> Local TV</li>
<li class="election-source-g"><strong>14</strong> Network nightly news</li>
<li class="election-source-d"><strong>13</strong> Radio</li>
<li class="election-source-b"><strong>10</strong> News website/app</li>
<li class="election-source-i"><strong>5</strong> Local paper in print</li>
<li class="election-source-a active"><strong>5</strong> Social Media</li>
<li class="election-source-f"><strong>2</strong> Late night comedy</li>
<li class="election-source-k"><strong>2</strong> National paper in print</li>
<li class="election-source-h"><strong>2</strong> Issue-based group</li>
<li class="election-source-j"><strong>&lt;1</strong> Candidate or campaign</li>
</ul></div>
<div>
<h4>65+</h4>
<ul>
<li class="election-source-c"><strong>43</strong> Cable TV news</li>
<li class="election-source-g"><strong>17</strong> Network nightly news</li>
<li class="election-source-e"><strong>10</strong> Local TV</li>
<li class="election-source-i"><strong>6</strong> Local paper in print</li>
<li class="election-source-b"><strong>5</strong> News website/app</li>
<li class="election-source-d"><strong>5</strong> Radio</li>
<li class="election-source-k"><strong>5</strong> National paper in print</li>
<li class="election-source-h"><strong>2</strong> Issue-based group</li>
<li class="election-source-a active"><strong>1</strong> Social Media</li>
<li class="election-source-j"><strong>1</strong> Candidate or campaign</li>
<li class="election-source-f"><strong>1</strong> Late night comedy</li>
</ul></div><figcaption>Source: Pew Research Center, February 4, 2016</figcaption></figure>
<p>In fact, the pace of change has speeded up so much that the Washington disruptors are themselves now getting&nbsp;disrupted.</p>
<p>Take <em>Roll Call</em>, whose trajectory since I worked there reveals much about the ups and downs of Washington journalism. At first, it grew fast, expanding to four days a week after I left, and eventually, in 2009, paying the almost unthinkable sum of $100 million to gobble up the entire <em>Congressional Quarterly</em> empire it had started out dismissively competing with. It seemed to work brilliantly as a business too: The &ldquo;issue advocacy&rdquo; market <em>Roll Call</em> did so much to create is now estimated to be worth some hundreds of millions of dollars a year, along with the equally robust trade in insider subscription news and information services to navigate what&rsquo;s really going on in official Washington, which is why Bloomberg dropped a reported astonishing $1 billion—in cash—in 2011 to buy BNA, a Washington-based company of specialized policy newsletters on everything from agriculture to&nbsp;taxes.</p>
<p>But <em>Roll Call</em>&rsquo;s own share of that booming market has dropped precipitously. First came <em>The Hill</em>, a new competitor that launched in 1994 and has recently positioned itself as a sort of down-market, high-traffic internet tabloid for Washington. Then came <em>Politico</em>, founded by two former <em>Post</em> colleagues of mine and owner Robert Allbritton in late&nbsp;2006.</p>
<p><em>Politico</em> aimed to own and shape the Washington conversation—and to compete at both ends of the Washington journalism food chain. It took on the <em>Post</em> at a time when the big daily newspaper just couldn&rsquo;t wrap itself around the newly competitive reality of the digital era, and also smacked down niche players like <em>Roll Call</em>, which had been the first to get how much faster the Washington news cycle could be but struggled to catch up to  the even faster new rhythms of the web and was in any case more worried about preserving the hard-won print ad dollars it had stolen from the <em>Post</em> than going really digital when it could have and should&nbsp;have.</p>
<p><em>Politico</em> came in vowing to &ldquo;win the morning,&rdquo; which, back in 2007, turned out to be a genuine competitive advantage in the still-sluggish, roll-in-at-10-take-a-long-lunch world of Washington journalism. With its get-it-up-now, web-first mentality and the round-the-clock updates that it featured on blogs like Ben Smith&rsquo;s eponymous news feed, <em>Politico</em> was cutting edge at a moment when Facebook was still a hangout for college students and not their moms, Twitter was some trendy new West Coast thing, and BlackBerries were ubiquitous in the corridors of&nbsp;government.</p>
<p>Washington, a city where information has always been power, loved it. During and after the 2008 election, Barack Obama and his aides would bemoan <em>the Politico</em>-ization of Washington, while avidly reading every word of it. In 2013, Mark Leibovich wrote a bestselling book called <em>This Town</em> about the party-hopping, lobbyist-enabling nexus between Washington journalists and the political world they cover. A key character was <em>Politico</em>&rsquo;s Mike Allen, whose morning email newsletter &ldquo;Playbook&rdquo; had become a Washington ritual, offering all the news and tidbits a power player might want to read before breakfast—and <em>Politico</em>&rsquo;s most successful ad franchise to boot. In many ways, even that world of just a few years ago now seems quaint: the notion that anyone could be a single, once-a-day town crier in This Town (or any other) has been utterly exploded by the move to Twitter, Facebook, and all the rest. We are living, as Mark put it to me recently, &ldquo;in a 24-hour scrolling version of what &lsquo;Playbook&rsquo;&nbsp;was.&rdquo;</p>
<p>These days, <em>Politico</em> has a newsroom of 200-odd journalists, a glossy award-winning magazine, dozens of daily email newsletters, and 16 subscription policy verticals. It&rsquo;s a major player in coverage not only of Capitol Hill but many other key parts of the capital, and some months during this election year we had well over 30 million unique visitors to our website, a far cry from the controlled congressional circulation of 35,000 that I remember <em>Roll Call</em> touting in our long-ago sales&nbsp;materials.</p>
<blockquote><p>Politics was never more choose-your-own-adventure than in 2016, when entire news ecosystems for partisans existed wholly outside the reach of those who at least aim for&nbsp;truth</p></blockquote>
<p>Through all these shakeups, I remained a big optimist about the disruption, believing that so many of the changes were for the good when it came to how we cover Washington. The general-interest mission of places like <em>The Washington Post</em> in its heyday had meant that the paper played a crucial role as a public commons and community gathering place—Don Graham loved the idea that there was something that bound together the bus driver in Prince George&rsquo;s County, Maryland, with the patrician senator on Capitol Hill, and the brigadier general in the Pentagon, and so did I. But that very well-intentioned notion also translated into a journalism that was often broad without being sufficiently deep. We told amazing stories and went to the dark corners of the globe but we also took our audience for granted, and tended to act like monopolists everywhere, not infrequently mistaking entitlement for&nbsp;excellence.</p>
<p>In recent years, it seemed to me, we were moving beyond those constraints, blessed by the forces of technological innovation with great new tools for covering and presenting the news—and an incredible ability to get the word out about our stories more quickly, cheaply, and efficiently than ever before. Most importantly, the constant new competition was serving to make our actual journalism better and better, and wasn&rsquo;t that the point? I was sure that the story of the last few decades wasn&rsquo;t really just about shiny new platforms and ever speedier news cycles, but about information and the value it could and should have for those who need to know what is really going on in&nbsp;Washington.</p>
<p>It&rsquo;s true that there were other, more worrisome developments alongside this democratization of information and the means to report on it. While I was celebrating the new digital journalism, others worried, correctly, about the accompanying rise of a new world of partisan spin, hype, and punditry, not to mention the death of the business models that supported all that investigative journalism. And yet I remained convinced that reporting would hold its value, especially as our other advantages—like access to information and the expensive means to distribute it—dwindled. It was all well and good to root for your political team, but when it mattered to your business (or the country, for that matter), I reasoned, you wouldn&rsquo;t want cheerleading but real reporting about real facts. Besides, the new tools might be coming at us with dizzying speed—remember when that radical new video app Meerkat was going to change absolutely everything about how we cover elections?—but we would still need reporters to find a way inside Washington&rsquo;s closed doors and back rooms, to figure out what was happening when the cameras weren&rsquo;t rolling. And if the world was suffering from information overload—well, so much the better for us editors; we would be all the more needed to figure out what to listen to amid the&nbsp;noise.</p>
<p>As the 2016 election cycle started, I gave a speech to a journalism conference that was all about the glass being half full. &ldquo;Forget the chestbeaters and the look-at-what&rsquo;s-losters,&rdquo; I&nbsp;said.</p>
<p class="blockquote">This is going to be a golden age for anyone who cares about journalism and access to new ideas and information. In a time of transformation, there are losers to be sure but winners too—why not aim to be on the side of what&rsquo;s being created, not what&rsquo;s being destroyed? Think about how to preserve the best of what we&rsquo;ve inherited, along with the new ideas that will come from having dazzling new tools and capabilities we couldn&rsquo;t have dreamed of just a few short news cycles&nbsp;ago.</p>
<p>I still think&nbsp;that.</p>
<p>But it&rsquo;s hard not to have experienced The Trump Show and all that&rsquo;s gone along with it without having some major new&nbsp;qualms.</p>
</section>
<div class="curtain">
<figure>
				<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2016/essay-2016-10-washington-disrupted/assets/images/rally.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Donald Trump supporters hold up their phone cameras as they wait for the Republican presidential nominee to arrive at a campaign rally in Manassas,&nbsp;Virginia. <span>Getty Images</span></figcaption></figure>
</div>
<section>
<h2>Transparency—without&nbsp;accountability</h2>
<p>At a few minutes after 4 p.m. on Friday, October 7, I was sitting in a conference room with <em>Politico</em>&rsquo;s top editors, deciding what stories to feature on our homepage when Blake Hounshell, our website&rsquo;s editorial director, looked up from his laptop and gasped. Soon, we all heard why as Blake hit the play button on a video just posted on <em>The Washington Post</em>&rsquo;s website. There was Donald Trump&rsquo;s voice, snide and belittling, bragging off-camera to an <em>Access Hollywood</em> reporter of his sexually aggressive behavior toward women in words so crude they&rsquo;d never appeared before in any major news&nbsp;outlet.</p>
<p>It was clear to all of us in an instant that this was a game-changer, an accountability moment in a campaign sorely lacking them, and we editors were sure—as sure as we were about anything in politics—that Donald Trump would now face a reckoning for his misogynistic attitudes and questionable behavior toward&nbsp;women.</p>
<p>Clearly that reckoning never came. And in retrospect, perhaps we could have anticipated that it might not. Even as we sat gasping at the <em>Access Hollywood</em> video, I thought back to that day so long ago in the <em>Post</em> newsroom, when we journalists were convinced the revelation of the Starr investigation into Bill Clinton&rsquo;s womanizing—and the lies he told to avoid responsibility for it—could spell the end of Clinton&rsquo;s presidency. Within days, Trump was thinking of that moment too, and in the effort to deflect attention from his scandalous behavior toward women, he sought to resurrect Bill Clinton&rsquo;s old misdeeds, parading several of the women from Clinton&rsquo;s 1998 scandals before the cameras at his second presidential debate with Clinton&rsquo;s wife. Trump turned out to be more correct than we editors were: the more relevant point of the <em>Access Hollywood</em> tape was not about the censure Trump would now face but the political reality that he, like Bill Clinton, could survive this—or perhaps any scandal. Yes, we were wrong about the <em>Access Hollywood</em> tape, and so much&nbsp;else.</p>
<figure class="figure-inline">
<h3>Fake news is&nbsp;thriving</h3>
<p>In the final three months of the presidential campaign, the 20 top-performing fake election news stories generated more engagement on Facebook than the top stories from major news outlets such as <em>The New York&nbsp;Times</em>.</p>
<p>				<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2016/essay-2016-10-washington-disrupted/assets/images/Data_5.png" alt=""/><figcaption>Source: BuzzFeed, November 16, 2016</figcaption></p></figure>
<p>Of course, that&rsquo;s not how it seemed at the time. It&rsquo;s hard to remember now, amid all the anguished self-examination after the shocking outcome of the election, but it was at least occasionally a great moment for journalism. If ever there were a campaign that called for aggressive reporting, this one did, and it produced terrific examples of investigative, public service-minded journalism at its best. In a way, it was even liberating to have a candidate so disdainful of the old rules as Donald Trump. With some of us banned for months from his rallies even as they were more extensively recorded by more participants than perhaps any political events in the history of the world (thanks, iPhone), we journalists were still able to cover the public theater of politics while spending more of our time, resources, and mental energy on really original reporting, on digging up stories you couldn&rsquo;t read anywhere else. Between Trump&rsquo;s long and checkered business past, his habit of serial lying, his voluminous and contradictory tweets, and his revision of even his own biography, there was lots to work with. No one can say that Trump was elected without the press telling us all about his checkered past. Or about Hillary Clinton&rsquo;s for that matter; her potential conflicts of interest at the Clinton Foundation, six-figure Wall Street speeches, and a secret email server were, in my view, rightfully scrutinized by the media. It&rsquo;s just the kind of stuff we got into journalism to&nbsp;do.</p>
<p>And yet&nbsp;&hellip;</p>
<blockquote><p>We&rsquo;ve achieved a lot more transparency in today&rsquo;s Washington—without the accountability that was supposed to come with&nbsp;it.</p></blockquote>
<p>While it&rsquo;s true that fears about the fragmentation of the media, the destruction of our public commons, the commodification of the news, and the death of objective reporting have been around as long as I&rsquo;ve been in Washington, politics was NEVER more choose-your-own-adventure than in 2016, when entire news ecosystems for partisans existed wholly outside the reach of those who at least aim for truth. Pew found that nearly 50 percent of self-described conservatives now <a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.journalism.org/2014/10/21/political-polarization-media-habits/">rely on a single news source</a>, Fox, for political information they trust. As President Obama has famously observed, &ldquo;If I watched Fox News, I wouldn&rsquo;t vote for me either.&rdquo; As for the liberals, they trust only that they should never watch Fox, and have MSNBC and Media Matters and the remnants of the big boys to confirm their biases. And then there are the conspiracy-peddling Breitbarts and the overtly fake-news outlets of this overwhelming new world; untethered from even the pretense of fact-based reporting, their version of the campaign got more traffic on Facebook in the race&rsquo;s final weeks than all the traditional news outlets&nbsp;combined.</p>
<p>When we assigned a team of reporters at <em>Politico</em> during the primary season to listen to every single word of Trump&rsquo;s speeches, we found that he offered a lie, half-truth, or outright exaggeration approximately once every five minutes&mdash;<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/trump-fact-check-errors-exaggerations-falsehoods-213730">for an entire week</a>. And it didn&rsquo;t hinder him in the least from winning the Republican presidential nomination. Not only that, when we repeated the exercise this fall, in the midst of the general election campaign, Trump had progressed to fibs of various magnitudes just about <a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/2016-donald-trump-fact-check-week-214287">once every three minutes</a>! So much for truth: By the time Trump in September issued his half-hearted disavowal of the Obama &ldquo;birther&rdquo; whopper he had done so much to create and perpetuate, one national survey found that <a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-persistent-partisan-divide-over-birther-question-n627446">only 1 in 4 Republicans was sure that Obama was born in the U.S.</a>, and various polls found that somewhere between a quarter and a <a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/253515-poll-43-percent-of-republicans-believe-obama-is-a-muslim">half of Republicans believed he&rsquo;s Muslim</a>. So not only did Trump think he was entitled to his own facts, so did his supporters. It didn&rsquo;t stop them at all from voting for&nbsp;him.</p>
<figure class="figure-interactive figure-news-source">
<h3>Main source for news about government and&nbsp;politics</h3>
<p>				<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2016/essay-2016-10-washington-disrupted/assets/images/Data_4a.png" alt=""/>
<br>
				<img src="https://c24215cec6c97b637db6-9c0895f07c3474f6636f95b6bf3db172.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/interactives/2016/essay-2016-10-washington-disrupted/assets/images/Data_4b.png" alt=""/><figcaption>Source: Pew Research Center, October 24,&nbsp;2014</figcaption></p></figure>
<p>At least in part, it&rsquo;s not just because they disagree with the facts as reporters have presented them but because there&rsquo;s so damn many reporters, and from such a wide array of outlets, that it&rsquo;s often impossible to evaluate their standards and practices, biases and preconceptions. Even we journalists are increasingly overwhelmed. Can we pluck anything out of the stream for longer than a brief moment? Can our readers?</p>
<aside class="related-reading">
<h4>Suggested Reading</h4>
<ul>
<li>
						<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~csweb.brookings.edu/content/research/essays/2014/bad-news.html">
<br>
							The bad news about the&nbsp;news
<br>
							<span>Robert G.&nbsp;Kaiser
<br>October 16, 2014</span>
<br>
						</a>
					</li>
<li>
						<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2015/05/12/improving-media-capacity-a-series-on-the-future-of-news-coverage/">
<br>
							Improving media capacity: A series on the future of news&nbsp;coverage
<br>
							<span>Elaine Kamarck
<br>May 12, 2015</span>
<br>
						</a>
					</li>
<li>
						<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-news-today-7-trends-in-old-and-new-media/">
<br>
							The news today: 7 trends in old and new&nbsp;media
<br>
							<span>Elaine Kamarck and Ashley&nbsp;Gabriele
<br>November 10, 2015</span>
<br>
						</a>
					</li>
<li>
						<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/02/24/shining-light-on-explanatory-journalisms-impact-on-media-democracy-and-society/">
<br>
							Shining light on explanatory journalism’s impact on media, democracy, and&nbsp;society
<br>
							<span>John Hudak
<br>February 24, 2016</span>
<br>
						</a>
					</li>
<li>
						<a href="http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/t/0/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/~https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/06/02/false-equivalence-in-covering-the-2016-campaign/">
<br>
							False equivalence in covering the 2016&nbsp;campaign
<br>
							<span>Thomas Mann
<br>June 2, 2016</span>
<br>
						</a>
					</li>
</ul>
</aside>
<p>As this wild presidential campaign progressed, that became my ever-more nagging worry and then our collective nightmare—the fear, clearly realized, that all the flood of news and information we&rsquo;ve celebrated might somehow be drowning us. So much terrific reporting and writing and digging over the years and &hellip; Trump? What happened to consequences? Reporting that matters? Sunlight, they used to tell us, was the best disinfectant for what ails our&nbsp;politics.</p>
<p>But 2016 suggests a different outcome: We&rsquo;ve achieved a lot more transparency in today&rsquo;s Washington—without the accountability that was supposed to come with&nbsp;it.</p>
<p>And that for my money is by far the most dispiriting thing about this campaign season: not the mind-numbing endless chatter or the embarrassing bottom-feeding coverage or even the stone-throwing barbarians lying in wait to attack any who dare to enter Twitter or&nbsp;Facebook.</p>
<p>So what&rsquo;s an editor with a no longer always half-full glass to do?</p>
<p>Four days after the election, I moved to Jerusalem to become a foreign correspondent again for a few years. To a troubled part of the world where the stones thrown are real and not metaphorical. Where an entire region is in the midst of a grand and violent reckoning with the fallout of a failed political order. And where, not coincidentally, the results of the election this year in the world&rsquo;s remaining superpower will matter almost as much as they will back in&nbsp;Washington.</p>
<p>Facts may be dead, but here&rsquo;s one I&rsquo;ll take with me, and it&rsquo;s a truth as rock-solid as those Facebook feeds are not: elections, in America or elsewhere, still have&nbsp;consequences.</p>
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<p><span>Susan B.&nbsp;Glasser</span> served as editor of <em>Politico</em> throughout the 2016 campaign. The founding editor of <em>Politico Magazine</em>, she has also been editor-in-chief of <em>Foreign Policy</em> magazine; a foreign correspondent, editor, and political reporter for <em>The Washington Post</em>; and co-chief of the <em>Post</em>&rsquo;s Moscow Bureau with her husband, Peter Baker. Their book, <em>Kremlin Rising: Vladimir Putin&rsquo;s Russia and the End of Revolution</em>, was published in 2005. Prior to the <em>Post</em>, Glasser worked for eight years at <em>Roll Call</em>, where she rose from an intern to become the paper&rsquo;s top&nbsp;editor.</p>
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		<title>The citizen-soldier: Moral risk and the modern military</title>
		<link>http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/172199198/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Phil Klay]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 May 2016 13:53:58 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.brookings.edu/?post_type=essay&#038;p=111439</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[The rumor was he&#8217;d killed an Iraqi soldier with his bare hands. Or&nbsp;maybe bashed his head in with a radio. Something to that effect. Either way, during inspections at Officer Candidates School, the Marine Corps version of boot camp for officers, he was the Sergeant Instructor who asked the hardest, the craziest questions. No softballs.&hellip;<div class="fbz_enclosure" style="clear:left"><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/citizen_soldier_640360_16x9.jpg?w=320" title="View image"><img border="0" style="max-width:100%" src="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/citizen_soldier_640360_16x9.jpg?w=320"/></a></div>
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</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By Phil Klay</p><p>The rumor was he&#8217;d killed an Iraqi soldier with his bare hands. Or&nbsp;maybe bashed his head in with a radio. Something to that effect. Either way, during inspections at Officer Candidates School, the Marine Corps version of boot camp for officers, he was the Sergeant Instructor who asked the hardest, the craziest questions. No softballs. No, &ldquo;Who&#8217;s the Old Man of the Marine Corps?&rdquo; or &ldquo;What&#8217;s your first general order?&rdquo; The first time he paced down the squad bay, all of us at attention in front of our racks, he grilled the would-be infantry guys with, &ldquo;Would it bother you, ordering men into an assault where you know some will die?&rdquo; and the would-be pilots with, &ldquo;Do you think you could drop a bomb on an enemy target, knowing you might also kill women and&nbsp;kids?&rdquo; </p>
<p>When he got to me, down at the end, he unloaded one of his more involved hypotheticals. &ldquo;All right candidate. Say you think there&#8217;s an insurgent in a house and you call in air support, but then when you walk through the rubble there&#8217;s no insurgents, just this dead Iraqi civilian with his brains spilling out of his head, his legs still twitching and a little Iraqi kid at his side asking you why his father won&#8217;t get up. So. What are you going to tell that Iraqi&nbsp;kid?&rdquo;</p>
<p>Amid all the playacting of OCS&mdash;screaming &ldquo;Kill!&rdquo; with every movement during training exercises, singing cadences about how tough we are, about how much we relish violence&mdash;this felt like a valuable corrective. In his own way, that Sergeant Instructor was trying to clue us in to something few people give enough thought to when they sign up: joining the Marine Corps isn&#8217;t just about exposing yourself to the trials and risks of combat&mdash;it&#8217;s also about exposing yourself to moral&nbsp;risk.</p>
<p>U.S. soldiers destroy a statue of Saddam Hussein near Tikrit, Iraq. July 18, 2003. Reuters</p>
<p>I&nbsp;never had to explain to an Iraqi child that I&#8217;d killed his father. As a public affairs officer, working with the media and running an office of Marine journalists, I&nbsp;was never even in combat. And my service in Iraq was during a time when things seemed to be getting better. But that period was just one small part of the disastrous war I&nbsp;chose to have a stake in. &ldquo;We all volunteered,&rdquo; a friend of mine and a five-tour Marine veteran, Elliot Ackerman, said to me once. &ldquo;I&nbsp;chose it and I&nbsp;kept choosing it. There&#8217;s a sort of sadness associated with&nbsp;that.&rdquo;</p>
<p>As a former Marine, I&#8217;ve watched the unraveling of Iraq with a sense of grief, rage, and guilt. As an American citizen, I&#8217;ve felt the same, though when I&nbsp;try to trace the precise lines of responsibility of a civilian versus a veteran, I&nbsp;get all tangled up. The military ethicist Martin Cook claims there is an &ldquo;implicit moral contract between the nation and its soldiers,&rdquo; which seems straightforward, but as the mission of the military has morphed and changed, it&#8217;s hard to see what that contract consists of. A decade after I&nbsp;joined the Marines, I&#8217;m left wondering what obligations I&nbsp;incurred as a result of that choice, and what obligations I&nbsp;share with the rest of my country toward our wars and to the men and women who fight them. What, precisely, was the bargain that I&nbsp;struck when I&nbsp;raised my hand and swore to defend my country against all enemies, foreign and domestic? </p>
<p>Grand causes</p>
<p>It was somewhat surprising (to me, anyway, and certainly to my parents) that I&nbsp;wound up in the Marines. I&nbsp;wasn&#8217;t from a military family. My father had served in the Peace Corps, my mother was working in international medical development. If you&#8217;d asked me what I&nbsp;wanted to do, post-college, I&nbsp;would have told you I&nbsp;wanted to become a career diplomat, like my maternal grandfather. I&nbsp;had no interest in going to&nbsp;war.</p>
<p>Operation Desert Storm was the first major world event to make an impression on me&mdash;though to my seven-year-old self the news coverage showing grainy videos of smart bombs unerringly finding their targets made those hits seem less a victory of soldiers than a triumph of technology. The murky, muddy conflicts in Mogadishu and the Balkans registered only vaguely. War, to my mind, meant World War II, or Vietnam. The first I&nbsp;thought of as an epic success, the second as a horrific failure, but both were conflicts capable of capturing the attention of our whole society. Not something struggling for air-time against a presidential sex&nbsp;scandal.</p>
<p>So I&nbsp;didn&#8217;t get my ideas about war from the news, from the wars actually being fought during my teenage years. I&nbsp;got my ideas from&nbsp;books.</p>
<p>My novels and my history books were sending very mixed signals. War was either pointless hell, or it was the shining example of American&nbsp;exceptionalism.</p>
<p>Reading novels like Joseph Heller&#8217;s Catch-22, or Tim O&#8217;Brien&#8217;s The Things They Carried, I&nbsp;learned to see war as pointless suffering, absurdity, a spectacle of man&#8217;s inhumanity to man. Yet narrative nonfiction told me something different, particularly the narrative nonfiction about World War II, a genre really getting off the ground in the late-90s and early aughts. Perhaps this was a belated result of the Gulf War, during which the military seemed to have shaken off its post-Vietnam malaise and shown that, yes, goddamn it, we can win something, and win it good. Books like Stephen Ambrose&#8217;s Band of Brothers and Tom Brokaw&#8217;s The Greatest Generation went hand-in-hand with movies like Saving Private Ryan to present a vision of remarkable heroism in a world that desperately needed&nbsp;it.</p>
<p>11 230 128 34</p>
<p>11 March 1969</p>
<p>Beginning in 1969, the Selective Service conducted draft lotteries to determine the order of induction into the Vietnam&nbsp;War.</p>
<p>In short, my novels and my histories were sending very mixed signals. War was either pointless hell, or it was the shining example of American exceptionalism. In middle-school, I&#8217;d read Ambrose&#8217;s Citizen Soldiers, about the European Theater in World War II. More than anything else, it was the title that stayed with me, the notion of service in a grand cause as the extension of citizenship. I&nbsp;never bothered to consider that the mix of draftees and volunteers who served in World War II&nbsp;wasn&#8217;t so different from the mix of draftees and volunteers who served in Vietnam, or that the atrocities committed in that war were no less horrific than those committed in Vietnam, though no one was likely to write a best-selling book about Vietnam entitled Citizen Soldiers. The title appealed to me. Deeply. But I&nbsp;didn&#8217;t see any grand causes in the 1990s, just a series of messy, limited engagements. Of course, in the history of American warfare, from the Indian Wars to the Philippines to the Banana Wars, it was the grand causes that were the anomalies, not the brushfire wars at the edge of&nbsp;empire.</p>
<p>Then 9/11 happened. We all have our stories of where we were that day. Mine is that I&nbsp;was in the woods, hiking the Appalachian Trail. As my little group of hikers scrambled over the rough paths we kept running into people telling stories of planes hitting the World Trade Center. It sounded preposterous, the sort of rumor that could easily spread in an isolated place, in the days before everybody had a smartphone. But we kept hearing the story, in ever more detail, until it became clear&mdash;particularly for those of us from New York&mdash;that we had to leave the&nbsp;woods.</p>
<p>I&nbsp;can&#8217;t say that I&nbsp;joined the military because of 9/11. Not exactly. By the time I&nbsp;got around to it the main U.S. military effort had shifted to Iraq, a war I&#8217;d supported though one which I&nbsp;never associated with al-Qaida or Osama bin Laden. But without 9/11, we might not have been at war there, and if we hadn&#8217;t been at war, I&nbsp;wouldn&#8217;t have&nbsp;joined.</p>
<p>It was a strange time to make the decision, or at least, it seemed strange to many of my classmates and professors. I&nbsp;raised my hand and swore my oath of office on May 11, 2005. It was a year and a half after Saddam Hussein&#8217;s capture. The weapons of mass destruction had not been found. The insurgency was growing. It wasn&#8217;t just the wisdom of the invasion that was in doubt, but also the competence of the policymakers. Then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld had been proven wrong about almost every major post-invasion decision, from troop levels to post-war reconstruction funds. Anybody paying close attention could tell that Iraq was spiraling into chaos, and the once jubilant public mood about our involvement in the war, with over 70 percent of Americans in 2003 nodding along in approval, was souring. But the potential for failure, and the horrific cost in terms of human lives that failure would entail, only underscored for me why I&nbsp;should do my part. This was my grand cause, my test of citizenship.</p>
<p>Citizen-soldiers versus &ldquo;base&nbsp;hirelings&rdquo;</p>
<p>The highly professional all-volunteer force I&nbsp;joined, though, wouldn&#8217;t have fit with the Founding Fathers&#8217; conception of citizen-soldiers. They distrusted standing armies: Alexander Hamilton thought Congress should vote every two years &ldquo;upon the propriety of keeping a military force on foot&rdquo;; James Madison claimed &ldquo;armies kept up under the pretext of defending, have enslaved the people&rdquo;; and Thomas Jefferson suggested the Greeks and Romans were wise &ldquo;to put into the hands of their rulers no such engine of oppression as a standing&nbsp;army.&rdquo;</p>
<p>They wanted to rely on &ldquo;the people,&rdquo; not on professionals. According to the historian Thomas Flexner, at the outset of the Revolutionary War George Washington had grounded his military thinking on the notion that &ldquo;his virtuous citizen-soldiers would prove in combat superior, or at least equal, to the hireling invaders.&rdquo; This was an understandably attractive belief for a group of rebellious colonists with little military experience. The historian David McCullough tells us that the average American Continental soldier viewed the British troops as &ldquo;hardened, battle-scarred veterans, the sweepings of the London and Liverpool slums, debtors, drunks, common criminals and the like, who had been bullied and beaten into mindless obedience.&rdquo;</p>
<p>A recruitment poster seeks Continental Army soldiers to serve under General George Washington during the American Revolution.Library&nbsp;of&nbsp;Congress</p>
<p>Even lower in their eyes were the Hessian troops the British had hired to fight the colonists, which were commanded by Lieutenant-General Leopold Philip von Heister. A veteran of many campaigns, von Heister had crankily sailed over from England, touched shore, &ldquo;called for hock and swallowed large potations to the health of his friends,&rdquo; and then, apparently, set out trying to kill Americans.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a long tradition of distrust for mercenaries, from Aristotle claiming they &ldquo;turn cowards &hellip; when the danger puts too great a strain on them&rdquo; to Machiavelli arguing they&#8217;re &ldquo;useless and dangerous &hellip; disunited, ambitious and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies,&rdquo; and the colonists would likely have agreed with such assessments. Mercenaries were at the bottom of the hierarchy of military excellence, citizen-soldiers at the top. We can see this view reflected in George Washington&#8217;s message to his soldiers before the first major engagement of the Revolutionary War, the Battle of Long&nbsp;Island: </p>
<p>Remember, officers and Soldiers, that you are Freemen &hellip; Remember how your Courage and Spirit have been despised, and traduced by your cruel invaders, though they have found by dear experience at Boston, Charlestown and other places, what a few brave men contending in their own land, and in best of causes can do, against base hirelings and mercenaries.</p>
<p>This was in August 1776, and Washington&#8217;s 19,000 men were about to see whether their civic virtues would triumph over British military skill. The American line stretched out across central Brooklyn, with British troops advancing from the south and the east. Though there was skirmishing during the day on August 26, the real fighting began the next morning when a column of Hessians marched up Battle Pass, in modern day Prospect&nbsp;Park.</p>
<p>What followed was a disaster. In the unkind phrasing of historian W.J. Wood, &ldquo;Washington and his commanders &hellip; performed like ungifted amateurs,&rdquo; and that&#8217;s exactly how the Hessian mercenaries viewed them. &ldquo;The rebels had a very advantageous position in the wood,&rdquo; wrote one Hessian soldier, &ldquo;but when we attacked them courageously in their hiding-places, they ran, as all mobs do.&rdquo; Colonel Heinrich von Heeringen, the commander of a Hessian regiment, wrote, &ldquo;The riflemen were mostly spitted to the trees with bayonets. These frightful people deserve pity rather than fear.&rdquo; And looking over those he&#8217;d captured, von Heeringen sneered, &ldquo;among the prisoners are many so-called colonels, lieutenant-colonels, majors, and other officers, who, however, are nothing but mechanics, tailors, shoe-makers, wig-makers, barbers, etc. Some of them were soundly beaten by our people, who would by no means let such persons pass for officers.&rdquo;</p>
<p>It was a rough education for Washington. At the close of the war he would submit to Congress his Sentiments on a Peace Establishment, which noted that &ldquo;Altho&#8217; a large standing Army in time of Peace hath ever been considered dangerous to the liberties of a Country, yet a few Troops, under certain circumstances, are not only safe, but indispensably necessary.&rdquo; Congress, however, rejected the idea of even a modest standing army for the nation, its only concession being to keep one standing regiment and a battery of artillery. The rest of the new nation&#8217;s defense would rely mostly on state militias. Hence the Second Amendment. This idealistic vision of militias as a bulwark of democracy would soon face a harsh reality&nbsp;check.</p>
<p>There continues to be a cynicism about the motives of those who volunteer for the military. I&#8217;ve been repeatedly told that people don&#8217;t really enlist because they want to, but because they have&nbsp;to.</p>
<p>In this case, it was not the British, but the Western Confederacy of American Indians who&#8217;d give the Americans their comeuppance. Mixed units of American regulars and militiamen had been fighting these tribes throughout the early 1790s. The first campaign, led by General Josiah Harmar, was meant &ldquo;to chastise the Indian Nations who have of late been so troublesome.&rdquo; Today, the campaign is known as Harmar&#8217;s Defeat, which tells you all you really need to know about whether or not that happened. The individual battles within that campaign don&#8217;t have much better titles. There&#8217;s Hardin&#8217;s Defeat, Hartshorn&#8217;s Defeat, the Battle of Pumpkin Fields. This last doesn&#8217;t sound so bad, until you learn that it supposedly got its name not because it was fought in a pumpkin field, but because the steam from the scalped skulls of militiamen reminded the victorious American Indians of squash steaming in the autumn&nbsp;air.</p>
<p>Harmar was succeeded by General Arthur St. Clair, who, though rather old, rather fat, and afflicted with gout, set out with &ldquo;sanguine expectations that a severe blow might be given to the savages yet.&rdquo; His poorly trained, undisciplined men engaged an equal-sized force at the Battle of the Wabash in November 1791, also known by the considerably more evocative title, the Battle of a Thousand Slain. What followed was the worst military disaster of U.S. history. Of St. Clair&#8217;s 920 troops, 632 were killed and 264 wounded, a casualty rate of just over 97 percent. Congress, finally conceding that professionalism did count for something, bowed to the creation of a standing army beyond absolute bare&nbsp;bones.</p>
<p>Of course, the creation of the Army hardly ended the complicated relationship Americans had with professional soldiers. When we come to the Civil War, the first war in which we instituted a national draft, none other than Ulysses S. Grant would call the professional soldiers who&#8217;d manned the Army prior to the war &ldquo;men who could not do as well in any other occupation.&rdquo; Naturally, he was not talking about his own men, fine citizen-soldiers who &ldquo;risked life for a principle &hellip; often men of social standing, competence, or wealth and independence of character.&rdquo; It took a grand cause, then, like the Civil War, for military service to count as a civic&nbsp;virtue.</p>
<p>A collage of U.S. Armed Forces posters from World War I shows various recruitment slogans.Library&nbsp;of&nbsp;Congress</p>
<p>And not only was it a civic virtue&mdash;it could be what made you American in the first place. During World War I, Assistant Secretary of War Henry Breckinridge maintained that when immigrants and those born in this country rub &ldquo;elbows in a common service to a common Fatherland &hellip; out comes the hyphen&mdash;up goes the Stars and Stripes &hellip; Universal military service will be the elder brother of the public school in fusing this American race.&rdquo; During World War II, Franklin Delano Roosevelt thought military service would &ldquo;Americanize&rdquo; foreigners.</p>
<p>To this day, however, there continues to be a cynicism about the motives of those who volunteer for the military. I&#8217;ve been repeatedly told that people don&#8217;t really enlist because they want to, but because they have to. I&nbsp;remember seeing the poet and playwright Maurice Decaul, frustrated with an insistent questioner who couldn&#8217;t accept that an intelligent and sensitive soul might want to join the military, finally just blurt out, &ldquo;I&nbsp;wanted to join the Marine Corps since I&nbsp;was eight years old.&rdquo; And all the veterans I&nbsp;know who are Ivy League graduates have had the unpleasant experience of people acting as though they&#8217;d made some sort of bizarre choice to spend time with the peons. At one event a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist explained to me that, though he felt the Iraq War was evil, he didn&#8217;t feel the soldiers should be blamed for their participation&mdash;they were only in service because they had no other&nbsp;options.</p>
<p>This is the &ldquo;poverty draft&rdquo;&mdash;the idea that with the elimination of the draft, we shifted the burden from the whole of society to only the most poor and disadvantaged, who join the military to get a step up in life and then become cannon fodder. The demographics of the military don&#8217;t support the image&mdash;it&#8217;s actually the middle class that&#8217;s best represented in the military, and the numbers of high-income and highly educated recruits rose to levels disproportionate to their percentage of the population after the war on terror began. But this notion of a military filled with ne&#8217;er-do-wells who are in it only for the money is frustrating not just because it&#8217;s insulting or false&mdash;it takes the decision to put one&#8217;s life at risk for one&#8217;s country and transforms it, as if by magic, into a self-interested act. Veterans have a benefit package &hellip; they&#8217;re paid in full, right? If the war was a just one and they saved the world against fascism, or slavery, maybe more is owed. If not, well, you can pity them, but you can&#8217;t take them seriously as moral&nbsp;agents.</p>
<p>A new soldier holds his order sheet as he arrives for basic training, Fort Sill, Oklahoma. November 4, 2009.Reuters</p>
<p>Marine Corps recruits wait for haircuts at the Parris Island receiving station in South Carolina. January 5, 2005.Reuters</p>
<p>Marine Corps Staff Sergeant Patrick K. Wiley shouts instructions to new recruits at Parris Island, South Carolina. January 5, 2005.Reuters</p>
<p>Marine Corps recruits take a moment for mandatory prayer before lights out at 9:00 P.M. at Parris Island, South Carolina. January 6, 2005.Reuters</p>
<p>Marine Corps recruits undergo aquatic training at Parris Island, South Carolina. January 6, 2005.Reuters</p>
<p>A Marine Corps recruit poses for his file photo at Parris Island, South Carolina. January 6, 2005.Reuters</p>
<p>Messing up your nice, clean&nbsp;soul</p>
<p>The decision to accept my commission was the most important one I&#8217;d made in my twenty-one years of life, and I&nbsp;knew it. I&nbsp;also knew I&#8217;d likely end up in Iraq, that the next four years would be bound up with a politically and morally contentious conflict, and I&nbsp;was comfortable with that. But in 2005, it didn&#8217;t seem to me that my decision about whether or not to join would make me any the more or less responsible for a war that had started in 2003. There&#8217;s a bit in John Osbourne&#8217;s play Look Back in Anger where a character angrily tells his&nbsp;wife:</p>
<p>It&#8217;s no good trying to fool yourself about love. You can&#8217;t fall into it like a soft job without dirtying up your hands. It takes muscle and guts. If you can&#8217;t bear the thought of messing up your nice, clean soul you better give up the whole idea of life, and become a saint. Because you&#8217;ll never make it as a human&nbsp;being.</p>
<p>As in love, so in politics. Choices have to be made, without the benefit of hindsight, and then you have to live with those choices. The chain of events begun with the invasion of Iraq would neither end nor alter through my own inaction. So when friends would argue with me about WMDs or the initial invasion it seemed radically beside the point. I&nbsp;didn&#8217;t have a time machine, neither did they. Nor could I&nbsp;write off the entire war effort as evil and thereby evade any feeling of responsibility for all the policy decisions that came&nbsp;later.</p>
<p>Back in 2006, as I&nbsp;was preparing to go to Anbar Province, the &ldquo;lost&rdquo; province, the heart of the Sunni insurgency, it was tempting to think there was nothing we could do to improve the situation in Iraq, or even that doing nothing was somehow the best course of action. The following year Senator Carl Levin would propose a rapid withdrawal in order to somehow magically force an Iraqi political settlement. &ldquo;It is time for Congress to explain to the Iraqis that it is your country,&rdquo; he said in a speech before Congress, apparently under the impression that the Iraqis didn&#8217;t know that. To me, this proposal for ending the occupation seemed little more than a smokescreen to allow us to leave Iraq behind without feeling too guilty about&nbsp;it.</p>
<p>Though the word &ldquo;occupation&rdquo; is often bandied about as though it represents something inherently evil, occupation is actually a situation legitimized&mdash;and circumscribed&mdash;by international law. Article 43 of the Hague Regulations of 1907 demands that an occupying force &ldquo;shall take all the measures in [its] power to restore and ensure, as far as possible, public order and safety.&rdquo; Further obligations are spelled out in the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949. These apply regardless of whether the war waged against the occupied country was just or unjust. We waged a just war against Germany and Japan during World War II and yet afterward still had an obligation to provide order for those countries&#8217; citizens, many of whom were starving, homeless refugees. For me, it didn&#8217;t follow that because a war was unjust we were thereby relieved of our obligations as a country and could happily leave Iraqis to their sorry fate, secure in the knowledge that our hands were clean as long as we hadn&#8217;t voted for George W. Bush in 2000. We obviously hadn&#8217;t lived up to our obligations to prevent chaos in the aftermath of our invasion of&nbsp;Iraq.</p>
<p>Of course, none of that means that the deployment I&nbsp;was about to go on would, in fact, be part of an adequate or just national response to the tragedy unfolding&nbsp;there.</p>
<p>Razor wire on a trench in Anbar Province, Iraq.Getty</p>
<p>We can tell them the truth when we get&nbsp;home</p>
<p>In the first month of my deployment, a suicide truck bomber detonated among a group of families going to mosque. U.S. forces brought the injured in to our base hospital, where the line of Marines waiting to give blood was so long that it extended out the door and wrapped around the building. Inside there were so many injured that the doctors ran out of trauma tables and had to do surgery on the floor. In one room, I&nbsp;saw them slowly stitching a man&#8217;s intestines back together. In another, a surgeon new to the theater hesitated before a man&#8217;s bloody, shrapnel-filled body. Time being of the essence, a doctor who&#8217;d been there several months already pushed him away, stuck a finger into the man&#8217;s side, plunged it knuckle deep, and pulled out a jagged piece of metal from his&nbsp;abdomen.</p>
<p>Not much later a similar attack hit Ramadi. One of my Marines, a videographer, asked if he could interview one of our doctors after the attack. The only quiet place was where they were keeping the bodies of the dead, so the two sat in a corner, surrounded by civilian bodies, the men, women, and children the doctors hadn&#8217;t been able to save. There, in the silence, the exhausted doctor&nbsp;wept.</p>
<p>The units moving out of theater around this time&mdash;doctors, infantryman, engineers, and logisticians&mdash;had seen a lot of violence, but not much progress. I&nbsp;remember listening in on an outgoing group of soldiers talking about what they should tell their families back home about the war. They couldn&#8217;t tell them the truth, they agreed. Instead, they&#8217;d tell them proud, uplifting things. &ldquo;We can tell them the truth when we get home,&rdquo; one said. It was quiet a moment, and another asked, &ldquo;Will we even tell the truth&nbsp;then.&rdquo;</p>
<p>That was early 2007. By 2008, violence had fallen, markets were opening up, and police forces were swelling. The slowdown in death threw opponents of the U.S. troop surge for a loop. Moveon.org famously suggested General David Petraeus was &ldquo;cooking the books.&rdquo; More thoughtful critics came up with other responses: the gains were temporary, dependent on a political solution, or on untrustworthy allies, or on arming one side in a civil war. Or, less plausibly, given the actual patterns of violence in Iraq, maybe sectarian cleansing had sorted the country into Sunni and Shia enclaves and so the violence had declined only because there was no one left to kill. Even today, whether the surge &ldquo;worked&rdquo; is the subject of a fairly intense debate both within the military and outside of it. It&#8217;s clear the Anbar Awakening&mdash;the Sunni revolt against Al Qaeda in Iraq&mdash;could not have reshaped the country in the way it did without significant U.S. support. But those who argue that the surge didn&#8217;t solve Iraq&#8217;s underlying issues are, of course, completely correct, and whether the Bush administration was right to pursue the surge in 2007 remains up for debate. Either way, it wasn&#8217;t&nbsp;enough.</p>
<p>I&nbsp;didn&#8217;t know that in 2008. I&nbsp;went home feeling great about my deployment. Iraq was getting better, and I&#8217;d been part of the force (even if a rear-echelon part) that had risked life and limb for that goal. And the good news kept coming. A year and a half after I&nbsp;got back, the New York Times had a story about a giant beach party thrown on the banks of Lake Habbaniyah, near where I&#8217;d spent much of my time overseas. Photos showed hundreds of young Iraqis having fun. A DJ yelled into a microphone: &ldquo;Shoutout to everyone from Baghdad. Everyone from Adhamiyah and Sadr City.&rdquo; I&nbsp;spoke with another Marine who&#8217;d spent time in that area&mdash;the author Michael Pitre. He told me, &ldquo;I&nbsp;remember reading that article and thinking, My God, did we&nbsp;win.&rdquo;</p>
<p>I&nbsp;hoped so. Either way, I&nbsp;didn&#8217;t feel I&nbsp;had anything to account for. I&nbsp;was under the impression that history had justified me. And though I&#8217;m a Catholic, it never even occurred to me to do something once common for soldiers after war&mdash;seek atonement.</p>
<p>Coming back from Iraq, with none of the memories of visceral horror we associate with the authentic experience of war, I&nbsp;assumed my hands were&nbsp;clean.</p>
<p>In the medieval period, Christian theology carved out a space for war&mdash;what we now call &ldquo;just war theory.&rdquo; Nevertheless, killing was still considered a sin, even in a just war, even when lawful, even when the Church itself had directed you to do it. One of the more remarkable consequences of this belief is the Penitential Ordinance imposed on Norman knights who fought with William the Conqueror on Senlac Hill at the Battle of Hastings in 1066. &ldquo;Anyone who knows that he killed a man in the great battle must do penance for one year for each man that he killed,&rdquo; it proclaims, before moving forward and really getting into the weeds. If you wounded a man and aren&#8217;t sure he died, forty days penance. If you fought only for gain, it&#8217;s the same penance as if you&#8217;d committed a regular homicide. For archers, &ldquo;who killed some and wounded others, but are necessarily ignorant as to how many,&rdquo; three Lents worth of&nbsp;penance.</p>
<p>To modern, rational ears, there seems something bizarre, if not cruel about demanding something of men and then demanding penance for that same thing. And yet it is perhaps healthier both for the society that sends men to war and for the warriors themselves. Vietnam veteran Karl Marlantes, looking back on his time overseas, described himself &ldquo;struggling with a situation approaching the sacred in its terror and contact with the infinite.&rdquo; Though he didn&#8217;t know it then, what he desperately wanted was a spiritual guide. &ldquo;We cannot expect normal eighteen-year-olds to kill someone and contain it in a healthy way. They must be helped to sort out what will be healthy grief about taking a life because it is part of the sorrow of&nbsp;war.&rdquo;</p>
<p>This route might offer not only redemption, but also genuine growth as a human being. The philosopher and World War II veteran J. Glenn Gray wrote that for a soldier, &ldquo;guilt can teach him, as few things else are able to, how utterly a man can be alienated from the very sources of his being. But the recognition may point the way to a reunion and a reconciliation with the varied forms of the created. &hellip; Atonement will become for him not an act of faith or a deed, but a life, a life devoted to strengthening the bonds between men and between man and&nbsp;nature.&rdquo;</p>
<p>A U.S. soldier shows his tattooed arm while on patrol in Umm Qasr, Iraq. March 25, 2003.Reuters</p>
<p>But this is a way of thinking distinctly at odds with stories of uncomplicated military glory. &ldquo;The notion of war as sin simply doesn&#8217;t play in Peoria&mdash;or anywhere else in the United States&mdash;because a fondness for war is an essential component of the macho American God,&rdquo; wrote Vietnam War chaplain William Mahedy. &ldquo;Yet the awareness of evil&mdash;in religious terms of consciousness of sin&mdash;is the underlying motif of the Vietnam War stories.&rdquo; And of course, it&#8217;s not just Vietnam. This is a recurrent theme in writing from both the wars we celebrate and the wars we condemn. During an interview, I&nbsp;once cautiously asked a ninety-one-year-old veteran of World War II what he thought of the idea of the Greatest Generation. &ldquo;It&#8217;s bullshit!&rdquo; he shouted, cutting me off. &ldquo;Bullshit &hellip; War ruined my life.&rdquo; He later calmed and revised his self-assessment: &ldquo;I&#8217;m eighty percent sweet and twenty percent bitter.&rdquo; And the twenty percent of bitterness he still held with him, over seven decades later, came from his experiences in what we like to think of as &ldquo;the Good&nbsp;War.&rdquo;</p>
<p>In terms of the contract young Marines and soldiers sign when joining the service, this moral dimension can be added to the physical and emotional risks they assume, risks present regardless of how we later come to feel about the particular war we send them off to. &ldquo;Men wash their hands, in blood, as best they can,&rdquo; wrote the poet Randall Jarrell. Coming back from Iraq, with none of the memories of visceral horror we associate with the authentic experience of war, I&nbsp;assumed my hands were clean. As a staff officer, I&nbsp;had the privilege of seeing the war mostly as a spectator, the same privilege enjoyed by the rest of the American public&mdash;that is, if they bothered to&nbsp;look.</p>
<p>U.S. Navy Hospital Corpsman Richard Barnett, with the 1st Marine Division, holds an Iraqi child in central Iraq. Front-line crossfire ripped apart an Iraqi family after local soldiers appeared to force civilians toward positions held by U.S. Marines. March 29, 2003.Reuters</p>
<p>A saving idea?</p>
<p>Not long after ISIS had made headlines by seizing Fallujah and Ramadi I&nbsp;went to the screening of a documentary about Afghanistan. During the Q&amp;A with the director afterward one of the many veterans there stood up. He was a big, tough-looking guy, must have been the perfect image of a Marine in dress blues. He said, &ldquo;I&#8217;m a veteran of Iraq. That used to be something I&nbsp;was incredibly proud of. If you&#8217;d asked me, just a few years ago, to make a resume of my life&mdash;not a resume for a job, but a resume of who I&nbsp;was, what I&nbsp;was&mdash;all the biggest bullet points would have been: Marine sergeant; combat veteran; led Marines in Iraq. But now, I&#8217;m looking at what&#8217;s happening in Iraq, and I&#8217;m starting to wonder what I&nbsp;was a part of, and whether I&nbsp;can be proud of it. Was I&nbsp;part of an evil thing? Because if I&nbsp;was, then I&nbsp;don&#8217;t know who I&nbsp;am anymore. I&nbsp;don&#8217;t know what my identity&nbsp;is.&rdquo;</p>
<p>It was a sharper-edged response to the overseas tragedy than I&#8217;d previously heard. Though I&#8217;d seen many veterans wondering &ldquo;What was this all for?&rdquo; they often resolved the question by narrowing their focus. One veteran who served in the Second Battle of Fallujah argued that he didn&#8217;t think about &ldquo;Bush or Obama, or about Iraq or Afghanistan,&rdquo; but about the men he&#8217;d served with and &ldquo;what we&#8217;d done for each other.&rdquo; Elizabeth Samet, an instructor at West Point, argues that our recent wars&#8217; &ldquo;absence of a clear and consistent political vision &hellip; forced many of the platoon leaders and company commanders I&nbsp;know to understand the dramas in which they found themselves as local and individual rather than national or communal. The ends they furnish for themselves&mdash;coming home without losing any soldiers or, if someone has to die, doing so heroically in battle&mdash;offer exclusively personal and particular consolations that make the mission itself effectively beside the&nbsp;point.&rdquo;</p>
<p>A soldier from the 1st Cavalry Division begins his trip back to the United States from Camp Virginia in Kuwait. His&nbsp;brigade was the last U.S. military unit to depart Iraq. December 20, 2011.Reuters</p>
<p>In its own way, American pop culture, with its increasing obsession with Special Forces conducting commando-style raids, seems to have come to a similar conclusion. Zero Dark Thirty, 13 Hours, and American Sniper offer a vision of war in which highly trained operatives kill undoubtedly evil people&mdash;bomb-makers and torturers and sadists and thugs of all stripes&mdash;without forcing too much consideration about the overall outcome. In a raid, the moral stakes seem clear. Let&#8217;s think only about killing &ldquo;the Butcher,&rdquo; or the evil enemy sniper, or Osama bin Laden, not about ending the chaos swirling around them. And though these movies have the veneer of non-fiction, their impact isn&#8217;t so different from the previous generation&#8217;s Rambo franchise, which Vietnam veteran and author Gustav Hasford argued &ldquo;satisfies our pathetic need to win the war and gives us another coat of whitewash as bumbling do-gooders, innocent American white-bread boy[s], pulled down into corruption by wicked Orientals. We should have won, and we could have won, Rambo argues, if only the dumb grunts could have been saved by grotesquely muscled civilians who somehow skated the shooting&nbsp;war.&rdquo;</p>
<p>This kind of thinking has become operative not just in the movies but in real life. At his State of the Union Address, President Obama proclaimed earlier this year, &ldquo;if you doubt America&#8217;s commitment&mdash;or mine&mdash;to see that justice is done, just ask Osama bin Laden. Ask the leader of Al Qaeda in Yemen, who was taken out last year, or the perpetrator of the Benghazi attacks.&rdquo; He received applause, and it&#8217;s not hard to understand why. Since these kinds of missions don&#8217;t put troops in the position of holding territory, when we kill or capture a target we can mark that off as a success regardless of whether or not we&#8217;re making a positive impact on the region we&#8217;re striking. Never mind what&#8217;s actually happening on the ground in Libya and Yemen right now. If you narrow your scope sufficiently, there&#8217;s no end to what you don&#8217;t have to deal&nbsp;with.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s true that, in the middle of a deployment, the specifics of any individual unit&#8217;s experience and the bonds those Marines share might overshadow their sense of the broader mission. But people join the military to be a part of something greater than themselves, and ultimately it&#8217;s deeply important for service members to be able to feel their sacrifices had a&nbsp;purpose.</p>
<p>Joining the military is an act of faith in one&#8217;s country&mdash;an act of faith that the country will use your life&nbsp;well.</p>
<p>Pat C. Hoy II, a New York University professor who served in Vietnam, once described the aftermath of a battle in Vietnam waged by soldiers he&#8217;d trained. It had gratified him to see those soldiers recover &ldquo;through the saving rituals they performed together&mdash;burying the dead, policing the battlefield, stacking ammunition, burning left-over powder bags, hauling trash, shaving, drinking coffee, washing, talking as they restored order and looked out for one another&#8217;s welfare.&rdquo; These are the kind of small moments of communal satisfaction that I&nbsp;saw veteran after veteran invoke as they tried to come to terms with the extent of our failure in Iraq. For Hoy, such satisfactions are real, but insufficient.</p>
<p>Those men had done the soldiers&#8217; dirty job in a war that will probably never end&mdash;for them or for this nation. The Vietnam War will not be transfigured by a purifying idea. The men and women who fought there will forever be haunted by the fact of carnage itself. The ones who actually looked straight into the eyes of death will scream out in the middle of the night and awake shaking in cold sweat for the rest of their lives&mdash;and there will be no idea, nothing save the memory of teamwork, to redeem them. That will not be enough. That loneliness is what they get in return for their gift of service to a nation that sent them out to die and abandoned them to their own saving ideas when they came&nbsp;home.</p>
<p>What is the saving idea of Iraq? In some ways, joining the military is an act of faith in one&#8217;s country&mdash;an act of faith that the country will use your life well. What your piece of a war will be, after all, is mostly a matter of chance. I&nbsp;have friends who joined prior to 9/11, when machine gun instructors still taught recruits to depress the trigger as long as it takes to say, &ldquo;Die, commie, die!&rdquo; I&nbsp;have friends who joined after 9/11, expecting to fight al-Qaida, only to invade Iraq. One friend protested the Iraq War, then signed up because he felt the war was unjust and so we owed the Iraqis a humane, responsible occupation. The Army sent him to Afghanistan twice. Another soldier I&nbsp;know, a reservist, had a unit slotted for one of two deployments&mdash;either to help with the Ebola crisis, a mission few would object to, or to man Guantanamo Bay. Depending on where they were sent, they knew they&#8217;d face radically different reactions when they came home. Of course, the praise or censure your average American civilian might dole out to those soldiers would in reality just be the doling out of the praise or censure they themselves deserve for being part of a nation that does such&nbsp;things.</p>
<p>The difference, though, is that it&#8217;s impossible for the veteran to pretend he has clean hands. No number of film dramatizations of commandos killing bad guys can move us past the simple reality that Iraq is destroyed, there is untold suffering overseas, and we as a country have even abandoned most of the translators who risked their lives for&nbsp;us.</p>
<p>Yet this fact seems not to have penetrated either the civilians we come home to, or the government that sent us: &ldquo;How many American presidents or members of Congress have suffered from PTSD or taken their own lives rather than live any longer with the burden of having declared a war?&rdquo; asked humanities professor Robert Emmet Meagher. None, of&nbsp;course.</p>
<p>A tank in Kuwait drives toward the border of Iraq. March 26, 2003.Getty</p>
<p>Total mobilization</p>
<p>When my cell phone buzzed in a Brooklyn bar and the voice at the other end told me a Marine I&#8217;d served with had been shot in Afghanistan, I&nbsp;looked around, searching for someone to talk to. The band setting up, the tattooed bartenders, any of them could have plausibly been a sympathetic ear. I&#8217;ve generally found civilians quite interested once you take the effort. And yet &hellip; I&nbsp;couldn&#8217;t. It would, I&nbsp;suspected, be treated as a personal tragedy, as though I&nbsp;were delivering the news that a family member had been diagnosed with cancer. Not as something that implicated&nbsp;them.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a joke among veterans, &ldquo;Well, we were winning Iraq when I was there,&rdquo; and the reason it&#8217;s a joke is because to be in the military is to be acutely conscious of how much each person relies on the larger organization. In boot camp, to be called &ldquo;an individual&rdquo; is a slur. A Marine on his or her own is not a militarily significant unit. At the Basic School, the orders we were taught to write always included a lost Marine plan, which means every order given carries with it the implicit message: you are nothing without the group. The Bowe Bergdahl case is a prime example of what happens when one soldier takes it upon himself to find the war he felt he was owed&mdash;a chance to be like the movie character Jason Bourne, as Bergdahl explained on tapes played by the podcast Serial. The intense anger directed at Bergdahl from rank and file soldiers, an anger sometimes hard for a civilian public raised on notions of American individualism to comprehend, is the anger of a collective whose members depend on each other for their very lives directed toward one who, through sheer self-righteous idiocy, violated the intimate bonds of camaraderie. By abandoning his post in Afghanistan, Bergdahl made his fellow soldiers&#8217; brutally hard, dangerous, and possibly futile mission even harder and more dangerous and more futile, thereby breaking the cardinal rule of military life: don&#8217;t be a buddy fucker. You are not the hero of this&nbsp;movie.</p>
<p>Specialist Katie Luna of the 572nd Military Intelligence Company pays respects during a memorial service for a platoon member killed in southern Afghanistan. October 19, 2012.Reuters</p>
<p>But a soldier doesn&#8217;t just rely on his squad-mates, or on the leadership of his platoon and company. There&#8217;s close air support, communications, and logistics. Reliable weapons, ammunition, and supplies. The entire apparatus of war&mdash;all of it ultimately resting on American industry and on the tax dollars that each of us pays. &ldquo;The image of war as armed combat merges into the more extended image of a gigantic labor process,&rdquo; wrote Ernst J&#252;nger, a German writer and veteran of World War I. After the Second World War Kurt Vonnegut would come to a similar conclusion, reflecting not only on the planes and crews, the bullets and bombs and shell fragments, but also where those came from: the factories &ldquo;operating night and day,&rdquo; the transportation lines for the raw materials, and the miners working to extract them. Think too hard about the front-line soldier, you end up thinking about all that was needed to put him&nbsp;there.</p>
<p>Today, we&#8217;re still mobilized for war, though in a manner perfectly designed to ensure we don&#8217;t think about it too much. Since we have an all-volunteer force, participation in war is a matter of choice, not a requirement of citizenship, and those in the military represent only a tiny fraction of the country&mdash;what historian Andrew Bacevich calls &ldquo;the 1 percent army. &ldquo; So the average civilian&#8217;s chance of knowing any member of the service is correspondingly&nbsp;small.</p>
<p>Moreover, we&#8217;re expanding those aspects of warfighting that fly under the radar. Our drone program continues to grow, as does the special operations forces community, which has expanded from 45,600 special forces personnel in 2001 to 70,000 today, with further increases planned. The average American is even less likely to know a drone pilot or a member of a special ops unit&mdash;or to know much about what they actually do, either, since you can&#8217;t embed a reporter with a drone or with SEAL Team 6. Our Special Operations Command has become, in the words of former Lieutenant Colonel John Nagl, &ldquo;an almost industrial-scale counterterrorism killing&nbsp;machine.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Since we have an all-volunteer force, participation in war is a matter of choice, not a requirement of citizenship, and those in the military represent only a tiny fraction of the&nbsp;country.</p>
<p>Though it&#8217;s true that citizens do vote for the leaders who run this machine, we&#8217;ve absolved ourselves from demanding a serious debate about it in Congress. We&#8217;re still operating under a decade-old Authorization for Use of Military Force issued in the wake of 9/11, before some of the groups we&#8217;re currently fighting even existed, and it&#8217;s unlikely, despite attempts from Senators Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), that Congress will issue a new one any time soon. We wage war &ldquo;with or without congressional action,&rdquo; in the words of President Obama at his final State of the Union Address, which means that the American public remains insulated from considering the consequences. Even if they voted for the president ordering these strikes, there&#8217;s seemingly little reason for citizens to feel personally culpable when they go&nbsp;wrong.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s that sense of a personal stake in war that the veteran experiences viscerally, and which is so hard for the civilian to feel. The philosopher Nancy Sherman has explained post-war resentment as resulting from a broken contract between society and the veterans who serve. &ldquo;They may feel guilt toward themselves and resentment at commanders for betrayals,&rdquo; she writes, &ldquo;but also, more than we are willing to acknowledge, they feel resentment toward us for our indifference toward their wars and afterwars, and for not even having to bear the burden of a war tax for over a decade of war. Reactive emotions, like resentment or trust, presume some kind of community&mdash;or at least are invocations to reinvoke one or convoke one&nbsp;anew.&rdquo;</p>
<p>The debt owed them, then, is not simply one of material benefits. There&#8217;s a remarkable piece in Harper&#8217;s Magazine titled, &ldquo;It&#8217;s Not That I&#8217;m Lazy,&rdquo; published in 1946 and signed by an anonymous veteran, which argues, &ldquo;There&#8217;s a kind of emptiness inside me that tells me that I&#8217;ve still got something coming. It&#8217;s not a pension that I&#8217;m looking for. What I&nbsp;paid out wasn&#8217;t money; it was part of myself. I&nbsp;want to be paid back in kind, in something&nbsp;human.&rdquo;</p>
<p>That sounds right to me: &ldquo;something human,&rdquo; though I&#8217;m not sure what form it would take. When I&nbsp;first came back from Iraq, I&nbsp;thought it meant a public reckoning with the war, with its costs not just for Americans but for Iraqis as well. As time goes by, and particularly as I&nbsp;watch a U.S. presidential debate in which candidates have offered up carpet bombing, torture, and other kinds of war crimes as the answer to complex problems that the military has long since learned will only worsen if we attempt such simplistic and immoral solutions, I&#8217;ve given up on hoping that will happen anytime soon. If the persistence of U.S. military bases named after Confederate generals is any indication, it might not happen in my lifetime. The Holocaust survivor Jean Am&#233;ry, considering Germany&#8217;s post-war rehabilitation, would conclude, &ldquo;Society &hellip; thinks only about its continued existence.&rdquo; Decades later Ta-Nehisi Coates, considering the difficulty, if not impossibility, of finding solutions for various historic tragedies, would write, &ldquo;I&nbsp;think we all see our &lsquo;theories and visions&rsquo; come to dust in the &lsquo;starving, bleeding, captive land&rsquo; which is everywhere, which is politics.&rdquo; </p>
<p>At a truck stop in California, a sign signals support for U.S. forces in the Iraq War. August 2006Getty</p>
<p>Bringing the mission&nbsp;home</p>
<p>Despite this, I&nbsp;don&#8217;t see nihilism from my fellow veterans. I&nbsp;see the opposite. I&#8217;ve met veterans who, horrified by the human cost of our wars overseas, have joined groups like the International Refugee Assistance Project or the International Rescue Committee. I&#8217;ve met veterans who&#8217;ve gone into public service&mdash;one of whom also remained in a reserve unit because, as he put it to me, &ldquo;I&nbsp;want to know the decisions I&nbsp;make might affect me personally.&rdquo; I&#8217;ve met veterans who&#8217;ve lobbied Congress, worked to fight military sexual assault, established literary non-profits, or worked to make public service&mdash;military or otherwise&mdash;an expectation within American society. A recent analysis of Census data shows that, compared with their peers, veterans volunteer more, give more to charity, vote more often, and are more likely to attend community meetings and join civic groups. This is the kind of civic engagement necessary for the functioning of a democracy.</p>
<p>In 2007, Rhodes-scholar and Navy SEAL Eric Greitens made a visit to the National Naval Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland. The men and women he found there, including amputees and serious burn victims, generally were eager to return to their units, though that would in many cases be impossible. These vets had been repeatedly thanked for their service. They&#8217;d been assured they were heroes and that they had the support of a grateful nation. But, as recounted in Joe Klein&#8217;s book Charlie Mike, Greitens found what energized them was something different. Four words: &ldquo;We still need&nbsp;you.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Members of the Service Platoon of The Mission Continues&mdash;a nonprofit organization that helps war veterans readjust to life at home&mdash;assemble after an event. January 2015.The&nbsp;Mission&nbsp;Continues</p>
<p>Greitens, who is hoping to win the Republican nomination in the Missouri governor&#8217;s race this year, went on to found The Mission Continues, an organization that awards community-service fellowships that &ldquo;redeploy&rdquo; post-9/11 veterans back to their communities to work on projects from education to housing and beyond. One study found that, though these veterans had high rates of Traumatic Brain Injury (52 percent), PTSD (64 percent) and depression (28 percent), the opportunity to feel that they had made a contribution lead to remarkably positive post-fellowship experiences. Eighty-six percent reported that the fellowship was a positive, life-changing experience. Seventy-one percent went on to pursue further education, 86 percent transferred their military skills to civilian employment, and large majorities reported that the fellowships helped them become community leaders able to teach others the value of&nbsp;service.</p>
<p>&ldquo;While most watch the suffering of the world on their TV, we ACT, rapidly and with great purpose,&rdquo; wrote Marine sniper Clay Hunt, a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan who provided relief efforts with the veteran-led disaster response organization Team Rubicon in the wake of earthquakes in Chile and Haiti, raised money for wounded veterans, and helped lobby Congress for veterans&#8217; benefits. &ldquo;Not counting the cost and without hope for reward. We simply refuse to watch our world suffer, when we have the skills and the means to alleviate some of that suffering, for as many people as we can reach &hellip; Inaction is not an&nbsp;option.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Strengthening the bonds between men and between man and&nbsp;nature</p>
<p>Clay Hunt, a Marine who served in Iraq, took his own life on March&nbsp;31, 2011.Courtesy of the Hunt&nbsp;family.</p>
<p>Clay Hunt took his own life in March 2011. His story may be a heroic tale of a Marine who served with distinction and came home determined to continue serving, but it is also the much darker story of a Marine who was never able to get the help he himself needed. Once out of the Corps, Hunt struggled with the Veterans Administration over his disability rating and his treatment. He appealed the low level of his benefits only to face one bureaucratic hurdle after another, including the VA losing his files, the process dragging out for eighteen months. As for his medical care, he got almost no counseling for his post-traumatic stress, but was instead prescribed a variety of drugs, none of which seemed to help. He felt he&#8217;d been used as a &ldquo;guinea pig&rdquo; for one failed treatment after another. After moving to Houston he waited months for his first appointment with a psychiatrist, and then found the appointment so stressful he resolved never to return. Two weeks later he killed&nbsp;himself.</p>
<p>True integration back into society can be overwhelmingly difficult for veterans struggling with unbearable physical or mental injuries. Hence the bare minimum of the payment veterans are due: a reliable Veterans Administration, improved mental health care, and adequate help transitioning to the civilian sector. The Clay Hunt Suicide Prevention for American Veterans (SAV) Act that President Obama signed into law in 2015 is intended to address some of these&nbsp;needs.</p>
<p>But this is just a starting place. It does not fully repay the debt to a Marine suffering post-traumatic stress if we provide him access to competent mental health care, just as we don&#8217;t fully repay the debt to a soldier who lost a limb by handing her a well-made prosthetic. And in the wake of a war that has left whole societies shattered, hundreds of thousands of lives lost and more displaced, the debt cannot be solely to an individual, or even to a class of individuals, like veterans. A therapeutic approach, however necessary, can only heal wounds. Our problems run deeper than&nbsp;that.</p>
<p>No civilian can assume the moral burdens felt at a gut level by participants in war, but all can show an equal commitment to their&nbsp;country.</p>
<p>I&nbsp;began this essay contemplating the oath I&nbsp;swore as a Marine to support and defend the Constitution. At the time I&nbsp;took the oath it felt like a special and precious burden I&nbsp;was taking on&mdash;sworn to defend not simply the physical security of my homeland but to defend something broader, our founding document, and thus the set of ideals embedded within it. Years later, looking through the section in the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services&#8217; &ldquo;Citizen&#8217;s Almanac&rdquo; on citizens&#8217; responsibilities, I&nbsp;was embarrassed to realize my obligations as a Marine were not so unique. The very first responsibility listed is to &ldquo;support and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic.&rdquo; So I&nbsp;had already owed that to my country, by virtue of my birth and the privilege of being American.</p>
<p>Suggested Reading</p>
<p>Afterwar: Healing the Moral Wounds of Our&nbsp;Soldiers Nancy Sherman, 2015</p>
<p>Killing from the Inside Out: Moral Injury and Just&nbsp;War Robert Emmet Meagher, 2014</p>
<p>No Man&#8217;s Land: Preparing for War and Peace inPost-9/11 America Elizabeth Samet, 2014</p>
<p>The Beauty and Destructiveness of War: A Literary Portrait of the Vietnam&nbsp;ConflictPat C. Hoy II, 2004</p>
<p>The Warriors: Reflections on Men in&nbsp;Battle J. Glenn Gray, 1959</p>
<p>The divide between the civilian and the service member, then, need not feel so wide. Perhaps the way forward is merely through living up to those ideals, through action, and a greater commitment by the citizenry to the institutions of American civic life that so many veterans are working to rebuild. Teddy Roosevelt once claimed a healthy society would regard the man &ldquo;who shirks his duty to the State in time of peace as being only one degree worse than the man who thus shirks it in time of war. A great many of our men &hellip; rather plume themselves upon being good citizens if they even vote; yet voting is the very least of their duties.&rdquo; That seems right to me. The exact nature of those additional duties will depend on the individual&#8217;s principles. What is undeniable, though, is that there is always a way to serve, to help bend the power and potential of the United States toward the&nbsp;good.</p>
<p>No civilian can assume the moral burdens felt at a gut level by participants in war, but all can show an equal commitment to their country, an equal assumption of the obligations inherent in citizenship, and an equal bias for action. Ideals are one thing&mdash;the messy business of putting them into practice is another. That means giving up on any claim to moral purity. That means getting your hands&nbsp;dirty.</p>
<p>Phil Klay is a graduate of Dartmouth College and a veteran of the U.S. Marine Corps. He served in Iraq&#8217;s Anbar Province from January 2007 to February 2008 as a public affairs officer. After being discharged he received an MFA from Hunter College. In 2014 Klay&#8217;s short story collection Redeployment won the National Book Award for Fiction. Among his many other accolades, in 2015 he received the Marine Corps Heritage Foundation&#8217;s James Webb Award for fiction dealing with U.S. Marines or Marine Corps life. His writing has appeared in The New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, Granta, Tin House, and elsewhere. He is currently a Hodder Fellow at Princeton University. Learn more at&nbsp;philklay.com.</p>
<p>Acknowledgements</p>
<p>Video at top from Getty.</p>
<p>Graphics and design by Cameron&nbsp;Zotter and Jessica&nbsp;Pavone. Web development by Yohann&nbsp;Paris. Editorial by Jessica&nbsp;Brandt, Beth&nbsp;Rashbaum, and Fred&nbsp;Dews. Promotion by Emily&nbsp;Rabadi.</p>
<p>Like other products of the Institution, The Brookings Essay is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are solely those of the&nbsp;author.</p>
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<feedburner:origLink>https://www.brookings.edu/essay/the-medical-marijuana-mess-a-prescription-for-fixing-a-broken-policy/</feedburner:origLink>
		<title>The medical marijuana mess: A prescription for fixing a broken policy</title>
		<link>http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/172199200/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John Hudak]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Mar 2016 14:01:49 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.brookings.edu/?post_type=essay&#038;p=111896</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[In 2013, Patrick and Beth Collins were desperate. Thirteen&#8208;year&#8208;old Jennifer, the younger of their two children, faced a life&#8208;threatening situation. In response, the Collins family took extreme measures&mdash;sending Jennifer thousands of miles away in the company of her mother. Beth and Jennifer became refugees from a capricious government whose laws threatened Jennifer&#8217;s health, the family&#8217;s&hellip;<div class="fbz_enclosure" style="clear:left"><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/640360_final_16x9.jpg?w=320" title="View image"><img border="0" style="max-width:100%" src="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/640360_final_16x9.jpg?w=320"/></a></div>
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</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By John Hudak</p><p>In 2013, Patrick and Beth Collins were desperate. Thirteen&#8208;year&#8208;old Jennifer, the younger of their two children, faced a life&#8208;threatening situation. In response, the Collins family took extreme measures&mdash;sending Jennifer thousands of miles away in the company of her mother. Beth and Jennifer became refugees from a capricious government whose laws threatened Jennifer&#8217;s health, the family&#8217;s safety, and the life they had&nbsp;built&nbsp;together.</p>
<p>Beth and Jennifer did not run from crime or war or famine. They did not flee from some country ruled by a murderous despot to a less dangerous place. They are Americans who found it necessary to move from their home in Virginia to another state in order to seek treatment for Jennifer&#8217;s serious medical condition&mdash;a treatment that was illegal according to the laws of both Virginia and&nbsp;the&nbsp;federal&nbsp;government.</p>
<p>And so, in December 2013, Beth and Jennifer said goodbye to Patrick and to Jennifer&#8217;s older sister, Alexandra. They moved to Colorado, joining thousands of other people who&#8217;d gone there wanting to avail themselves of one version or another of this taboo treatment: marijuana&#8208;based medicine. Their hope? That Colorado cannabis would do what prescription drugs could not&mdash;treat Jennifer&#8217;s&nbsp;epilepsy.</p>
<p>An Ancient, Honorable Medical Tradition</p>
<p>Patients like Jennifer Collins seek out medical marijuana every day. In the United States, it is currently only available in certain states, for certain people, and under specific conditions, though the number of venues where it can be obtained has been growing ever since California legalized medical marijuana in 1996. At the time of writing, 22 other states and the District of Columbia have followed suit. Privately owned but state licensed and regulated dispensaries dole out medical marijuana in most of&nbsp;these&nbsp;places.</p>
<p>Rabbi Jeffrey Kahn, owner of the Takoma Wellness Center, a medical marijuana dispensary in&nbsp;Washington,&nbsp;D.C.</p>
<p>Jeffrey Kahn, a congregational rabbi, owns one such supplier&mdash;the Takoma Wellness Center, which is described on its website as &ldquo;D.C.&#8217;s Family&#8208;Run Medical Marijuana Dispensary.&rdquo; A five minute walk from the owner&#8217;s home, it also happens to be located just six miles away from the White House. Like many such owners, Rabbi Kahn feels he is providing his customers with a critical medical treatment. In fact, his decision to go into this business was inspired in part by the suffering of his in&#8208;laws. When he opened the Center, he dedicated it to them. Their 1952 honeymoon photo&mdash;which could double for a black&#8208;and&#8208;white beach movie still&mdash;hangs in a prominent position across from the welcome desk. A half century after that photo was taken he watched them suffer and eventually die from serious medical issues. His father&#8208;in&#8208;law had spent decades battling multiple sclerosis&mdash;a battle occasionally alleviated by puffing on black&#8208;market marijuana. His mother&#8208;in&#8208;law had lung cancer. The doctor who diagnosed it told her she might be able to mitigate the devastating effects of chemo and radiation by using marijuana. But she died before the family could find a&nbsp;dealer.</p>
<p>Those experiences gave Rabbi Kahn a new perspective on pot, and a desire to serve those in need of it. Now he has patients suffering from the same illnesses his in&#8208;laws died of who are finding relief at&nbsp;his&nbsp;dispensary.</p>
<p>The federal government, however, views the rabbi not as a health care provider offering much needed treatment to the afflicted and the vulnerable, but as a drug dealer. A mild&#8208;mannered, middle&#8208;aged gentleman, Rabbi Kahn is a devoted husband and father who bears no resemblance to the stereotypical marijuana dealer. Nor does his dispensary resemble the stereotype of a drug&#8208;dealer&#8217;s place of business. The Takoma Wellness Center looks part pharmacy, part acupuncture clinic. Though the smell is quite different&mdash;the aroma of disinfectant replaced by the scent of grade&#8208;A cannabis&mdash;the Center is clean; it is welcoming; it is relaxing. The waiting area could double for that of a doctor&#8217;s office, and the experience of being in the consultation room with Rabbi Kahn is very much like what happens in a doctor&#8217;s office as well. Rabbi Kahn spends an hour or longer with each new patient, getting to know her, her diagnosis, and her previous experience with cannabis. Only then does he begin to map out a plan of&nbsp;action.</p>
<p>Takoma Wellness may be less than three years old, and its business an exotic novelty in the District of Columbia, but Rabbi Kahn is part of a long line of healers&mdash;some of them religious leaders like himself&mdash;who have been treating the sick with cannabis for millennia. During earlier eras, marijuana was much more commonly recommended for medical purposes than it is now. Five thousand years ago the Chinese, for example, were using cannabis as an appetite stimulant, pain reliever, and anesthetic. British physicians used cannabis for a variety of illnesses and disorders, even administering it to Her Majesty Queen Victoria for pain. As recently as the early 20th century, doctors in the United States, too, found medical applications for marijuana, using it as an anti&#8208;convulsive drug, a pain reliever, and&nbsp;an&nbsp;anti&#8208;inflammatory.</p>
<p>Jennifer Collins, a 16&ndash;year&ndash;old high school student in Virginia, suffers from Jeavons Syndrome, a rare form of&nbsp;epilepsy.</p>
<p>First Do No Harm</p>
<p>When Jennifer Collins showed signs of a serious disease, her parents counted on modern medicine to provide the best care possible. The medical community not only failed them, it could even be said to have violated the Hippocratic Oath, because the side effects Jennifer suffered from the legal medicines her doctors prescribed for&nbsp;her&nbsp;condition&mdash;Jeavons Syndrome&mdash;did little to help her, and much to&nbsp;harm&nbsp;her.</p>
<p>The most distinctive symptom of Jeavons is a series of short seizures with jerking movements in the eyelids and eyeballs. The seizures are frequent and can occur spontaneously, or because of something as simple as seeing a bright light or closing one&#8217;s eyes. It is a lifelong disorder that can only be managed; there is&nbsp;no&nbsp;cure.</p>
<p>Compound Breakdown</p>
<p>Only some forms of marijuana are intoxicating. The 400&ndash;plus chemical compounds found in cannabis&nbsp;include:</p>
<p>Non-Intoxicating</p>
<p>CBD (Cannabidiol)</p>
<p>Many of the medical benefits attributed to cannabis are because of CBD. It has been used to treat anxiety, arthritis, cancer, chronic pain, depression, diabetes, Dravet syndrome, epilepsy, glaucoma, Huntington&#8217;s Disease, Parkinson&#8217;s, and&nbsp;more.</p>
<p>THCA (Tetrahydrocannabinolic acid)</p>
<p>As marijuana dries and heats, THCA slowly converts to Tetrahydrocannabinol, aka THC. It has been used to treat arthritis, lupus, neurodegenerative diseases, and&nbsp;more.</p>
<p>Intoxicating</p>
<p>THC (Tetrahydrocannabinol)</p>
<p>THC is the cannabis compound that gets you &ldquo;high&rdquo; and is responsible for most of marijuana&#8217;s psychological effects. It has been shown to help with Alzheimer&#8217;s, anxiety, arthritis, chronic pain, asthma, and&nbsp;glaucoma.</p>
<p>Luckily, most people have never heard of Jeavons Syndrome. It is a rare form of epilepsy that can be debilitating in severe cases. Jennifer&#8217;s case is&nbsp;severe.</p>
<p>Her seizures began when she was quite young. When Patrick and Beth noticed the jerking motions in her eyes, which were occurring in short stints over dinner and at other times during the day, they took her to a neurologist, who diagnosed her with a mild form of epilepsy. For several years, the condition was manageable. Seizures were few and Jennifer was living the normal life of a girl her&nbsp;age.</p>
<p>Over time, however, Jennifer&#8217;s condition worsened. Sporadic eye twitches gave way to dramatically more frequent, more noticeable seizures. Some days, these small seizures would occur in dense clusters&mdash;close together and in rapid succession. There were days when Jennifer had more than 300 seizures, as many as 15&#8208;50 of them in the space of an hour. On New Year&#8217;s Eve 2011, one of those clusters led to a more dangerous, full&#8208;body grand mal seizure. This was her first grand mal seizure, but it would not be her last. Soon she was having repeat&nbsp;episodes.</p>
<p>When her condition was mild, her parents had opted to forego prescription drug treatment, largely because the possible side effects alarmed them. As Jeavons began to affect Jennifer&#8217;s daily activities and quality of life, however, they knew they had to change course. The doctors they went to prescribed anti&#8208;seizure medications, which Patrick and Beth opted to give to her, despite the potential side effects, in the hope that they would relieve the worst of her frightening&nbsp;symptoms.</p>
<p>Eventually, they found themselves consulting a seemingly endless round of specialists&mdash;pediatricians, neurologists, epileptologists, psychiatrists&mdash;who put her on a constantly changing regimen of drugs, in a perpetual search for something that would work well and cause minimal collateral damage. But all that came of these efforts was an ever sicker, more frightened pre&#8208;teen, taking prescription drugs that brought virtually no&nbsp;relief.</p>
<p>Jennifer&#8217;s seizure disorder is considered &ldquo;intractable.&rdquo; That is, it is not well treated by conventional drugs. Clinically, it is said that Jennifer failed a dozen different medications. In reality, each one failed Jennifer, who continued to suffer hundreds of daily seizures, as well as the side effects of&nbsp;the&nbsp;drugs.</p>
<p>As time went on, the cumulative effect of all these drugs, and of the high&#8208;fat diet recommended as a treatment for seizure disorders, changed Jennifer dramatically. She became depressed. Once a gifted and talented student, she saw her grades plummet as the medications caused cognitive impairment and decline, undermining her ability to think and learn. The special diet she was on caused her to gain 30 pounds, which only compounded her depression. One drug regimen resulted in Jennifer planning suicide. Another drug sent her into spontaneous, manic rages, during which she physically attacked her mother, father, and&nbsp;sister.</p>
<p>Since none of the doctors or their drugs were able to help Jennifer, Patrick and Beth began to research alternatives themselves. They read books, consulted online resources, and spoke to doctors in other parts of&nbsp;the&nbsp;country.</p>
<p>One alternative that was suggested was marijuana. Medical marijuana comes in many forms, some of them intoxicating, some not. Intoxicating products are those rich in psychoactive chemicals, namely THC. The non&#8208;intoxicating versions have been stripped of those psychoactive chemicals. Patrick and Beth read that one of marijuana&#8217;s non&#8208;intoxicating components, CBD (cannabidiol)&mdash;had been used in treating epilepsy, even in children. Desperate for help, they were willing to do what they would previously have found unthinkable: give their daughter&nbsp;marijuana.</p>
<p>They didn&#8217;t want to get their daughter high; they wanted to get her well. They wanted to&nbsp;get&nbsp;her&nbsp;CBD&nbsp;oil.</p>
<p>There was a problem, however. Despite the fact that board&#8208;certified neurologists told Patrick and Beth that Jennifer might get relief from medical marijuana, they could not give it to her. Under federal law, marijuana&mdash;even its non&#8208;psychoactive chemicals&mdash;is illegal under all circumstances. While many states have defied that prohibition and legalized access to medical marijuana, Virginia, their home state, was not among them at that time. Virginia law held that distribution of an ounce or more of marijuana to a minor was a felony punishable with a mandatory minimum sentence of five years in&nbsp;prison.</p>
<p>Nor would it have been an option for them to take Jennifer to Rabbi Kahn&#8217;s dispensary, a mere 30 miles away from their home across the Potomac in Northern Virginia. Not only was possessing CBD oil in Virginia a felony, but crossing state lines with marijuana was&#8212;and still is&#8212;a federal offense.</p>
<p>The Collins family had come face&#8208;to&#8208;face with a public policy that threatened the well&#8208;being of their daughter. They&#8217;d discovered a substance that might provide her much needed medical help, but their government&mdash;at both federal and state levels&mdash;told them she was not allowed to have it. Laws intended to limit drug abuse, stop trafficking, and combat cartels were keeping sick children (and adults) from trying a drug with the potential to benefit them. Patrick and Beth Collins are not the criminals that America&#8217;s drug laws were intended to stop, but if they had provided Jennifer with CBD oil, they would have been criminals&nbsp;nonetheless.</p>
<p>The Collinses had to choose between remaining together in Virginia and watching their daughter suffer, or breaking up their family, violating federal law, and getting Jennifer the medical marijuana they hoped would help&nbsp;her.</p>
<p>Patrick and Beth didn&#8217;t want to get their daughter high; they wanted to get her well. They wanted to&nbsp;get&nbsp;her&nbsp;CBD&nbsp;oil.</p>
<p>Before Jennifer was prescribed medical marijuana, her parents tried numerous other treatments&mdash;none of&nbsp;which&nbsp;worked.</p>
<p>Beth and Jennifer relocated to Colorado, became official residents of the state, found a doctor, procured a medical marijuana recommendation, and applied for and received a &ldquo;red card&rdquo; designating Jennifer a state&#8208;approved medical marijuana patient. Finally they were able to purchase CBD oil, which Jennifer used in conjunction with a cocktail of her prescription medicines. It didn&#8217;t work; in fact, it seemed to make her&nbsp;seizures&nbsp;worse.</p>
<p>Beth and Jennifer did not give up, however; instead, they sought information and support from other cannabis refugees in Colorado. Some recommended they try a similar oil, THCA, which other epilepsy patients had found helpful. Like CBD, it was a non&#8208;psychoactive component of cannabis, which wouldn&#8217;t get&nbsp;Jennifer&nbsp;high.</p>
<p>With THCA, they finally found a drug that helped. Jennifer&#8217;s seizures began to reduce in number and intensity. On a good day she would have only about 10 small seizures&mdash;a dramatic decrease that was confirmed by&nbsp;a&nbsp;brain&nbsp;scan.</p>
<p>Eventually Jennifer was able to cut her drug cocktail to only two prescriptions, each prescribed at lower doses than before. In addition to experiencing far fewer seizures, she lost the weight she had gained, and her violent manias, cognitive decline, and thoughts of suicide&nbsp;disappeared.</p>
<p>The improvement went beyond Jennifer herself. Any medical crisis affects not just the patient but her caregivers, too. Every member of the Collins family had endured physically and emotionally draining stress, sleepless nights, and constant worry as they tried to help Jennifer cope with her illness. As medical marijuana helped Jennifer, it indirectly helped her family by minimizing the demands her illness had&nbsp;put&nbsp;upon&nbsp;them.</p>
<p>Beth Collins holds an oral syringe that her daughter uses to take medical&nbsp;marijuana.</p>
<p>Legal Limbo</p>
<p>The Collinses are not alone. Tens of thousands of families across America seek relief from all forms of cannabis every day, and for many, the drug improves their quality of life, sometimes dramatically. The journey to relief can be fraught with tension, uncertainty, and fear, however, for not only is the treatment unconventional, but the conflicting signals about its legal status make people very unsure about what to expect, even in states where it&nbsp;has&nbsp;been&nbsp;legalized.</p>
<p>On the one hand there is a reassuringly orderly, official&#8208;feeling process for obtaining the drug in such states. It&#8217;s usually something similar to what Rabbi Kahn&#8217;s patients in the District of Columbia go through before they get to him, which culminates in their being able to register as approved medical marijuana users with a get&#8208;out&#8208;of&#8208;jail&#8208;free card for buying pot. Typically the process begins in a doctor&#8217;s office with a physical exam, consultation, and diagnosis. But that&#8217;s where things get weird, because doctors cannot write prescriptions for marijuana. Instead they must offer &ldquo;recommendations,&rdquo; because to write &ldquo;marijuana&rdquo; on a prescription pad is a fast path to losing their prescribing rights&mdash;and&nbsp;their&nbsp;livelihood.</p>
<p>Such problems stem directly from rules issued by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration&mdash;headquartered just eight miles from the Takoma Wellness Center&mdash;which is the federal agency responsible for regulating controlled substances. The DEA determines who can prescribe which drugs and under what conditions. Violating those rules has consequences: jail time, fines, loss of medical privileges for healthcare professionals, and asset seizure to name a&nbsp;few.</p>
<p>Under federal law, there are no conditions that allow a doctor to prescribe marijuana, a pharmacy to dispense it, or a patient to buy or use it. Marijuana is&nbsp;illegal.&nbsp;Period.</p>
<p>DEA Drug Schedules</p>
<p>In 1970, the Controlled Substances Act created five &ldquo;schedules of controlled substances.&rdquo; The list currently includes&nbsp;150&ndash;plus drugs, chemicals, compounds, and other substances. Some of the most well known&nbsp;are:</p>
<p>SCHEDULE I</p>
<p>Highest potential for abuse; has no currently accepted medical use&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;U.S</p>
<p>Marijuana, heroin, LSD, ecstasy, peyote,&nbsp;psilocybin</p>
<p>SCHEDULE II</p>
<p>High potential for abuse; has a currently accepted medical use in the U.S. with severe restrictions</p>
<p>Cocaine, methamphetamine, oxycodone (OxyContin), opium poppy, Adderall, Ritalin, hydrocodone (&lt; 15 mg per dosage unit, e.g.,&nbsp;Vicodin)</p>
<p>SCHEDULE III</p>
<p>Potential for abuse; has a currently accepted medical use in treatment in&nbsp;the&nbsp;U.S.</p>
<p>Ketamine, anabolic steroids, testosterone, codeine (&lt; 90 mg per dosage unit, e.g., Tylenol with&nbsp;codeine)</p>
<p>SCHEDULE IV</p>
<p>Low potential for abuse; has a currently accepted medical use in treatment in&nbsp;the&nbsp;U.S.</p>
<p>Barbital, Xanax, Darvocet, Valium, Ativan,&nbsp;Ambien</p>
<p>SCHEDULE V</p>
<p>Lowest potential for abuse; currently accepted for medical use&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;U.S.</p>
<p>Cough meds with &lt; 200 mg of codeine (e.g.,&nbsp;Robitussin&nbsp;AC)</p>
<p>The reason for this is that according to federal law&mdash;the Controlled Substances Act&mdash;marijuana is classified as a &ldquo;Schedule I&rdquo; substance. As explained on the DEA&#8217;s website, federal law reserves the Schedule I classification for the &ldquo;most dangerous class of drugs with a high potential for abuse and potentially severe psychological and/or physical dependence&rdquo; and with &ldquo;no currently accepted medical use.&rdquo; In addition to marijuana this category also includes drugs like heroin, LSD, and&nbsp;ecstasy.</p>
<p>The decision about what drugs should appear in each of the five &ldquo;Schedules,&rdquo; which range from the most dangerous and addictive to the least, with only Schedule I drugs ranked as having no medical value, was not made by anyone in the medical community, but by Congress. In 1970, Congress passed the Controlled Substances Act&mdash;a politically motivated law enacted at a time of national hysteria over drug abuse, and President Richard Nixon signed it into law. With the exception of a few relatively minor changes in the years since, the drug schedules included in the Controlled Substances Act have remained the same, including the Schedule I designation for&nbsp;marijuana.</p>
<p>The fact that marijuana&#8217;s therapeutic effects are real&mdash;as evidenced by what science says about its effects on the human body, and supported by hundreds, indeed thousands of years of effective treatments in places around the globe&mdash;has not sufficed to get it removed from that list. This is unfortunate, because the Schedule I designation has consequences that extend beyond the legal restrictions. It has created negative cultural norms&mdash;biases&mdash;that permeate much of society. Patients wanting to be treated with marijuana are often embarrassed and scared&mdash;even after a doctor has recommended that they use it, and they&#8217;ve gotten the approval of state authorities to do so. For some first&#8208;time medical marijuana patients, a trip to the dispensary is not like a stroll to the pharmacy with a prescription for a drug like amphetamines, or oxycodone, or morphine, or compounds that include cocaine, all of them Schedule II drugs; it&#8217;s more like a teenager&#8217;s trip to the corner store for&nbsp;condoms.</p>
<p>That social stigma likely keeps many sick people from even considering marijuana as an option. For them, there will never be an opportunity for responsible dispensary owners like Rabbi Kahn to have the chance to calm their nerves and show them that purchasing pot is not shameful&mdash;and that using it&nbsp;can&nbsp;be&nbsp;helpful.</p>
<p>Doctors are often fearful, too. Some are uncomfortable with medical marijuana if only because their training excluded it as a treatment option. Many are unfamiliar with the rules, and with the protections that the federal courts have afforded them against federal punishment. In Conant v. Walters, the U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that the government cannot investigate doctors or remove their prescribing rights simply because they recommend marijuana to their patients. The U.S. Supreme Court let that ruling stand in 2003. Despite this decision, doctors fear for their practices and prescription pads, and also for their patients. In medicine, marijuana is a frontier, and not every physician is a brave pioneer ready to forge a&nbsp;new&nbsp;path.</p>
<p>The Research Gap</p>
<p>Part of the fear physicians feel is due to what some consider insufficient medical research into marijuana. Clinical research and observational studies have shown that medical marijuana can make chemotherapy more tolerable, boost appetite, reduce the eye pressure of glaucoma, relieve pain, stop muscle spasms, treat depression or anxiety, alleviate PTSD, and help with a whole host of other medical conditions. But these findings, some of which have emerged from hospitals that are among the finest in the world, are only the beginning of what we need to know about the medical potential of marijuana. Any effort to learn more is seriously hindered by the legal obstacles thrown up by the federal government&#8217;s prohibition on marijuana, which makes it very difficult for researchers to conduct clinical&nbsp;testing.</p>
<p>The result is that we cannot answer even some of the most basic questions about how to make the best use of marijuana. We don&#8217;t know every disorder marijuana can treat&mdash;and just as important, we don&#8217;t know which ones it can&#8217;t. We don&#8217;t know the ideal way to get cannabis into the body (smoking vs. vaping vs. edibles vs. creams vs. oils). We know even less about dosing, potency, interactions, and&nbsp;side&nbsp;effects.</p>
<p>With medical marijuana, The U.S. Government&#8217;s prohibition doesn&#8217;t cure patients; It keeps them sick. It also keeps them&nbsp;ignorant.</p>
<p>These knowledge limitations exist because the U.S. government has made cannabis illegal on the basis of its having no medical value. And by prohibiting it, the government has made it harder for researchers to investigate what its medical value might actually be. This is the vicious cycle of marijuana&nbsp;prohibition.</p>
<p>Rabbi Kahn wants the system to change. He wants to know more, and he wants his patients to be better informed. He wants expanded research that will give physicians as much clinical knowledge about marijuana as they have about any other medication they prescribe. Right now, the federal government has created an environment that is anti&#8208;science, suppressing research and information. It refuses to allow science to provide us sufficient answers about the benefits and (just as important) risks of&nbsp;marijuana.</p>
<p>The U.S. government has funded research that helped cure some of the world&#8217;s most devastating diseases. With medical marijuana, the U.S. government&#8217;s prohibition doesn&#8217;t cure patients; it keeps them sick. And it also keeps them&nbsp;in&nbsp;ignorance.</p>
<p>Cannabis used for medical marijuana comes in a variety of strains and&nbsp;strengths.</p>
<p>The Information Gap</p>
<p>Marijuana offered hope for Jennifer Collins and her family, but it was a source of fear and uncertainty, too. When Patrick and Beth considered whether or not to try to get medical marijuana for their daughter, they found it almost impossible to get any of their doctors to discuss even the limited information they had about medical cannabis. Prohibition comes with a gag order. Jennifer&#8217;s doctors in Virginia were barred, often by their practices, from talking to the family about marijuana. In medicine, the doctor&#8208;patient relationship is protected by rules of confidentiality that allow patients to discuss anything with their doctors, thus ensuring that treatment will be based on a full understanding of the patients&#8217; circumstances. For marijuana, no such protection&nbsp;exists.</p>
<p>In the absence of expert advice, the Collinses turned to the Internet, where they found information from parents and patients facing similar medical crises, who told their stories online, and offered anecdotal information about dosing, strength, side effects, interactions, and benefits. Patrick calls this &ldquo;message board medicine&rdquo; or &ldquo;social media medicine.&rdquo; Helpful as it is, its drawbacks are&nbsp;obvious.</p>
<p>VIDEO &#124; 2:26Patrick and Beth Collins share how they tried to manage their daughter&#8217;s epilepsy symptoms with conventional drugs before they moved on&nbsp;to&nbsp;medical&nbsp;marijuana.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the Collins family found a few compassionate doctors&mdash;often in other states&mdash;who were willing to speak to them about marijuana. These doctors encouraged them to find a legal avenue to the drug. Some of them suggested that Colorado offered them their best option, because it included epilepsy among the conditions that qualified for treatment with medical marijuana, had no long&#8208;term residency requirements to qualify for access to the drug, and no age minimum, which meant that Jennifer, a minor, was eligible. Colorado also offered a wide choice of products, which would allow Jennifer to find what worked best for her. Finally and most important, Colorado had a well&#8208;regulated system in place that included product testing. The Collinses demanded a product that was safe. They wanted to know exactly what they were giving their daughter. Colorado&#8217;s system gave them the information they&nbsp;required.</p>
<p>In the end, even though Beth and Jennifer had to move thousands of miles away from their home, the Collins family could be said to be among the fortunate, in that they were ultimately able to find a drug that worked, in a place that offered them both access to it and information about it. But the obstacles they confronted along the way were formidable, and many other people who could benefit from medical marijuana have not had their good fortune. It is harder, riskier, and more confusing to get medical marijuana than any other medicine&mdash;but it shouldn&#8217;t be. Although the federal government generally looks the other way in states that have legalized marijuana, turning a blind eye is not a remedy for the gaps in&nbsp;public&nbsp;policy.</p>
<p>Jennifer Collins at her home in Virginia. Her seizures have reduced in number and intensity since she began using medical&nbsp;marijuana.</p>
<p>Business Limbo</p>
<p>It is no secret that Rabbi Jeffrey Kahn, a healer and man of God, is also a businessman. He owns and operates a facility that serves hundreds of District of Columbia customers, and offers a diverse array of products. Those &ldquo;products&rdquo; are marijuana&#8208;based (whole flower, vaporization cartridges, oils, creams, edibles, and more) and those &ldquo;customers&rdquo; are&nbsp;patients.</p>
<p>Takoma Wellness Center incorporated in 2010 but didn&#8217;t open its doors until 2013. The long gap is explained by the fact that after incorporating, Rabbi Kahn faced a seemingly endless set of hurdles, each standing between sick patients and their medicine. During that time, the Kahn family endured a level of bureaucratic red tape few businesses face. They waded through standard processes like licensing, zoning, and business plan approval, but also faced additional challenges like forms that required them to affirm they knew they were breaking the law and would not point a finger at the District if they were&nbsp;busted.</p>
<p>The waiting room at the Takoma Wellness Center could be taken for&nbsp;a&nbsp;doctor&#8217;s&nbsp;office.</p>
<p>Signing such a form has to be an unnerving experience. But it&#8217;s necessary because the District government was unsure how to oversee a program that the federal government&mdash;the District&#8217;s own landlord&mdash;says is illegal. By the letter of the law, Rabbi Kahn is some kind of drug kingpin and District government officials are conspirators at best, racketeers at worst. The District developed an intricately regulated system in an effort to inoculate itself from federal&nbsp;punishment.</p>
<p>But the District government was not the only roadblock. Opening a business is hard work; opening a marijuana enterprise, as Rabbi Kahn would come to find out, is nearly impossible. The most basic requirements for doing business &mdash;things most companies take for granted&mdash;are often out of reach for a &ldquo;cannabusiness.&rdquo; It took years before Takoma Wellness Center had a checking account. Bank officers often dismissed the rabbi, typically refusing him an account and in one instance asking him to leave the premises. Even though he had approval from the District of Columbia for what he was doing, bank officers don&#8217;t take their cues from local government. They get guidance from higher powers: the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Those two institutions consider Rabbi Kahn to be a criminal and his revenue to be drug money. Under federal law, those institutions are&nbsp;right.</p>
<p>And so, Jeffrey Kahn spent years trying to find a bank that would take his money, and on the rare occasion a bank said it would, he often found his accounts closed within months. Even as the White House and Treasury Department issued guidance to banks letting them know that they weren&#8217;t interested in shutting down medical marijuana dispensaries that played by the (state&#8208;level) rules, bankers remained understandably concerned over unchanged federal laws and&nbsp;regulations.</p>
<p>Comprehensive reforms in three&nbsp;areas</p>
<p>Federal marijuana policy is contradictory and unsustainable. It has consequences for state and local governments, business owners, doctors, patients, and families. Marijuana prohibition was designed to criminalize the illicit drug trade, but it has victimized innocent Americans like Rabbi Jeffrey Kahn, Jennifer Collins, and thousands of others like them. The president and Congress have a duty to design laws that reflect modern policy realities and that advance medical research. Comprehensive reform is needed in three key areas: research, access, and&nbsp;legal&nbsp;protection.</p>
<p>Whole plants and their derivatives (oils, edibles, etc.) may be used to medically treat nausea relief from chemotherapy, control muscle spasms from multiple sclerosis, and address symptoms of Crohn&#8217;s disease, among other&nbsp;uses.</p>
<p>Only CBD oil legal</p>
<p>Cannabidiol is a compound in marijuana. In states where only CBD oil is legal, it is used primarily for the treatment of seizure disorders, such as&nbsp;epilepsy.</p>
<p>Recreational marijuana use is legal in Alaska, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington. Sales and purchases of marijuana are illegal in D.C., but residents can grow and possess&nbsp;it.</p>
<p>Growing Knowledge</p>
<p>Allowing medical marijuana research to proceed without unnecessary obstacles is central to answering patients&#8217; and providers&#8217; questions about its safety, efficacy, and applications. Talented doctors and scientists across the United States are ready to do this research. The government should remove the barriers that stop them from performing their work. Not only should it facilitate the research, it should also take clear steps to expand and fund it in the service of&nbsp;science.</p>
<p>Changing marijuana&#8217;s classification in the drug schedules from Schedule I (which lists substances deemed to have no medical value) to Schedule II (or better yet III) is the first step toward opening the door to more research. A bill currently before Congress&mdash;the Compassionate Access, Research Expansion, and Respect States Act (CARERS), which calls specifically for &ldquo;research into the medicinal properties of marijuana&rdquo;&mdash;would move it to Schedule II. Such a change would mean less red tape around clinical research. A Schedule II designation would also officially affirm that marijuana may have medicinal value, while still acknowledging that it has a potential for abuse&mdash;just like cocaine and the various opiates that currently appear in the Schedule II classification. Even groups like the American Medical Association, the American Cancer Society, and the New England Journal of Medicine have called for a reconsideration of marijuana&#8217;s status in order to expand&nbsp;research.</p>
<p>Talented doctors and scientists across the United States are ready to study the safety and efficacy of medical marijuana. The government should remove the barriers that stop them from performing their&nbsp;work.</p>
<p>Expanding research involves more than just re&#8208;labeling marijuana. Federal law requires that the government must provide researchers an adequate supply of the marijuana. That mandate has gone unfulfilled. All medical marijuana studies are required to use cannabis produced from a single source: a farm at the University of Mississippi. Researchers have complained that the farm consistently fails to provide marijuana in the form, strength, and composition that their research requires. In some cases, the farm doesn&#8217;t even provide a sufficient amount. Since Mississippi&#8217;s medical marijuana monopoly disrupts rather than facilitates research, the federal government should license additional grow facilities to ensure both product diversity and&nbsp;safety.</p>
<p>The White House should convene a summit focusing on research into the efficacy of marijuana as medicine, and call on Congress to direct additional resources to&nbsp;the&nbsp;topic.</p>
<p>The U.S. government can also partner with local governments, businesses, and research institutions to conduct research in states where medical marijuana is legal. Since more than 149 million Americans live in states with medical marijuana programs, these public&#8208;private research partnerships could serve as the world&#8217;s most comprehensive clearinghouses for data on medical cannabis&#8217;s uses, successes, failures, side effects, doses, and&nbsp;strengths.</p>
<p>Access</p>
<p>Reform should take government out of the doctor&#8208;patient relationship entirely. It should also ensure that when a doctor decides that medical marijuana could help a patient, the government will not obstruct safe access to the&nbsp;drug.</p>
<p>To improve access, the government has some bold options to consider. As called for in the CARERS Act, Congress or the administration could use their separate authorities to remove cannabidiol as well as cannabis&#8217;s other non&#8208;intoxicating components from the federal drug schedules. Because these substances are used strictly as medicine, with no recreational value, Congress should authorize the creation of a new regulatory system that is more suitable for those&nbsp;chemicals.</p>
<p>The government should also do what it can to help patients who could benefit from medical marijuana but live in states that don&#8217;t have such programs. There is precedent in the now&#8208;shuttered Compassionate Investigational New Drug Program. From the late 1970s until 1992, this U.S. government program shipped monthly supplies of joints to qualifying patients&mdash;mostly people suffering from AIDS, cancer, or glaucoma. But then President George H.W. Bush killed it as part of his &ldquo;war on drugs,&rdquo; at a time when victims of the AIDS epidemic were flooding the program with requests. The government should consider restarting it and expanding its eligibility requirements to reflect the latest in medical&nbsp;science.</p>
<p>This medical marijuana growing and processing facility in Washington, D.C. is a source for Rabbi Kahn&#8217;s&nbsp;dispensary.</p>
<p>Legal Protection</p>
<p>Medical marijuana programs like the Takoma Wellness Center operate in a legal gray area that leaves those who run them&mdash;as well as doctors, patients, and local government officials&mdash;vulnerable to legal sanctions. The White House and Justice Department suggest that federal prosecutors not order drug raids on businesses abiding by state laws. However, that suggestion is not always followed, and dispensaries can be closed under the auspices of federal law, regardless of their compliance with state&#8208;level legislation. The White House should stop governing by &ldquo;suggestion&rdquo; and put an end to the federal government&#8217;s ad hoc, haphazardly stitched together, totally incoherent drug policy. Policy should be based on stable, predictable laws that protect these businesses against prosecution and unwarranted closings, ensuring that medical marijuana enterprises that play by the rules are not treated like Colombian drug&nbsp;cartels.</p>
<p>Instead, cannabis businesses like Rabbi Kahn&#8217;s should be treated like any other business in the United States. At a minimum this would mean giving them routine access to financial products like checking accounts and bank loans. To make that possible, Congress should legislate specific protections for banks and bankers working with medical marijuana firms that are in compliance with state laws and regulations. In addition, relabeling marijuana as a Schedule III substance would allow dispensary owners like Rabbi Kahn to take advantage of something almost every other business in America enjoys: business tax deductions. Such deductions will lower operating costs and therefore the price of drugs such as the one Jennifer Collins uses every&nbsp;day.</p>
<p>Doctors and patients need legal cover as much as business owners do. Congress should formalize the protection that federal courts have given doctors, ensuring they cannot be prosecuted or penalized for recommending medical marijuana to patients. There should be laws to shield patients from arrest for purchasing and using state&#8208;approved medical marijuana, or for growing their own in states where it is&nbsp;legal.</p>
<p>Related Reading</p>
<p>Ending the U.S. government&#8217;s war on medical marijuana&nbsp;research</p>
<p>John&nbsp;Hudak &amp; Grace&nbsp;Wallack</p>
<p>What does the first major official report on the outcomes of marijuana legalization tell&nbsp;us?</p>
<p>Philip&nbsp;Wallach</p>
<p>A deep dive into marijuana policy in the&nbsp;U.S.</p>
<p>John&nbsp;Hudak</p>
<p>How to reschedule marijuana, and why it&#8217;s unlikely anytime&nbsp;soon</p>
<p>John&nbsp;Hudak &amp; Grace&nbsp;Wallack</p>
<p>Marijuana legalization is an opportunity to modernize international drug&nbsp;treaties</p>
<p>Wells&nbsp;Bennett &amp; John&nbsp;Walsh</p>
<p>Congress should also reform the law in order to allow patients who abide by state medical marijuana policies a defense in federal court. As of now, patients are barred from using the claim that they buy or grow marijuana for medicinal purposes as a defense, often resulting in convictions. If the federal government is willing to tolerate state medical marijuana programs, it should also tolerate a patient&#8217;s right to defend herself in court. Jennifer Collins and the doctors who try to help her manage the symptoms of her epilepsy should have the right to tell a jury what they are doing, why they are doing it, and that it is legal in the state where they&nbsp;live.</p>
<p>Medical marijuana policy in the United States is putting Americans at risk. The federal government keeps people who live in states that don&#8217;t have medical marijuana programs from accessing a product that could benefit their health. And even as it prevents some people from having it, it erects barriers against research into the safety and efficacy of a product used by tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people who do live in states that have legalized&nbsp;it.</p>
<p>Although there are a number of policy changes, large and small, that Congress and the administration could make to overcome the deficiencies of this system, thus far they have chosen not to do so. Yet, as numerous organizations like the Marijuana Policy Project and the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws have documented, a substantial majority of Americans in every state that has been polled supports changes (in some form) to the nation&#8217;s medical marijuana laws. Gallup and CBS News polls have pegged national support for reform at between 70 and 85&nbsp;percent.</p>
<p>While elected officials cling to the status quo, failing to recognize and address the inherent hypocrisies in the nation&#8217;s laws, patients like Jennifer Collins and her family, and business owners like Rabbi Kahn and his family, are enduring unnecessary hardships. Far from being outliers, they are typical of the many people victimized by an unjust, arbitrary, and downright harmful system that hinders access to a clinically proven medical&nbsp;benefit.</p>
<p>It is time for government to transform medical marijuana policy into a system that is rational, functional, consistent, and informed by science&mdash;not&nbsp;politics.</p>
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		<title>أمير مكافحة الإرهاب</title>
		<link>http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/561849146/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bruce Riedel]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Sep 2015 15:07:07 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[توشك المملكة العربية السعودية، أقدم حليفٍ لأمريكا في الشرق الأوسط، أن تواجه تغييراً تاريخياً في الجيل الذي يتولى دفة الحكم والقيادة. فالملك سلمان بن عبد العزيز آل سعود (79 عاماً)، الذي جلس على العرش في يناير 2015، عقب وفاة الملك عبد الله، سيكون آخر ملكٍ من جيل القادة الذين بنوا المملكة الحديثة وحولوها من منطقةٍ&hellip;<div class="fbz_enclosure" style="clear:left"><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/e14_640360_16x9.jpg?w=320" title="View image"><img border="0" style="max-width:100%" src="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/e14_640360_16x9.jpg?w=320"/></a></div>
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</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By Bruce Riedel</p><p>توشك المملكة العربية السعودية، أقدم حليفٍ لأمريكا في الشرق الأوسط، أن تواجه تغييراً تاريخياً في الجيل الذي يتولى دفة الحكم والقيادة. فالملك سلمان بن عبد العزيز آل سعود (79 عاماً)، الذي جلس على العرش في يناير 2015، عقب وفاة الملك عبد الله، سيكون آخر ملكٍ من جيل القادة  الذين بنوا المملكة الحديثة وحولوها من منطقةٍ صحراوية منعزلة وفقيرة إلى قوةٍ إقليمية مزدهرة ومحافظة إلى أقصى درجةٍ وتتمتع بثروةٍ نفطيةٍ هائلة.</p>
<p>إنّ ما يخبئه المستقبل للمملكة يشغل واشنطن بشكلٍ كبير. ففي غضون أشهرٍ من تولي الملك سلمان الحكم، تورط في ما يبدو مستنقع حرب اليمن، وتعامل باستهانةٍ مع الرئيس أوباما، وساند رجال الدين المتشددين الذين يعارضون إدخال إصلاحاتٍ يرى أوباما أنها ضرورية إذا ما كانت السعودية ترغب في أن تظلَّ شريكاً مستقراً للولايات المتحدة. إنَّ تصرفاتٍ من هذا القبيل لا تمثّل بداية واعدة من وجهة النظر الأمريكية. ومع ذلك، لاقت إحدى الخطوات الأولى التي اتخذها الملك ترحيبا كبيراً جداً، ألا وهي تغيير ترتيب الخلافة، حيث أبعد أخاه غير الشقيق، الأمير مقرن بن عبد العزيز، عن ترتيبه في ولاية العرش، وعيَّن أحد أبناء إخوانه، الأمير محمد بن نايف (56 عاماً)، وليَّ عهدٍ جديداَ ووريثاَ للحكم.</p>
<p>سيكون الأمير محمد بن نايف، الأول من جيله لتولي عرش المملكة، هذا إنْ لم يلجأ الملك، بالطبع، إلى إدخال تعديلاتٍ أخرى على تسلسل وراثة الحكم. وفي هذا السياق، إن المسؤولين الأمريكيين يأملون بقاءه في هذا المنصب، حيث أنه هو الشخص المحبوب لدى أجهزة مكافحة الإرهاب والاستخبارات في أمريكا، بعد أن أنجز عدداً من الخدمات التي تهمّ الولايات المتحدة عندما كان نائباً لوزير الداخلية ثم وزيراً للداخلية- وهو المنصب الذي يشرف على جميع المسائل الأمنية الداخلية. وعلى النقيض من والده، الذي سبقه في تولي هذين المنصبين، فهو موالٍ للولايات المتحدة، ومن المؤكد أنّ هذه الموالاة تفوق ما أظهره أيّ عضوٍ آخر في القيادة السعودية من موالاة.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>الأمير المتشدد: نايف بن عبد العزيز</p>
<p>في النظام الملكي السعودي، تُعتبر السلالات غاية في الأهمية. فموقع والدك في الترتيب الملكي هو العامل الرئيسي في تحديد مصيرك. فإنْ كان والدك من سلالة الملك بشكلٍ مباشر، قد تصبح ملكاً. وحيث أن السعوديين لديهم العديد من الزوجات، فإن سلالة الأم أقل أهمية، ولكن هذا الأمر يُؤخذ بالحسبان.</p>
<p>الملك عبد العزيز بن سعود، المعروف في الغرب باسم ابن سعود، هوَ الأب المؤسس للمملكة العربية السعودية في العصر الحديث ووالد كل الملوك الذين تبعوه، وهو من أوصل جيش قبيلته إلى السلطة في الرياض في وقتٍ مبكرٍ من القرن العشرين، وأصبح في ثلاثينيات القرن الماضي سيد شبه الجزيرة العربية من البحر الأحمر إلى الخليج من دون منازع، بما في ذلك المدينتين المقدستين، مكة المكرمة والمدينة المنورة.</p>
<p>تزوج ابن سعود من  22 زوجة على الأقل، وأنجب 44 ابناً معترفاً بهم. ومنذ وفاته في العام 1953، توالى ستة من هؤلاء الأبناء على حكم المملكة من بعده. وكان ابنه الثالث والعشرون، نايف بن عبد العزيز، والد محمد بن نايف، الثاني في ترتيب الخلافة، ولكنه توفي في العام 2012، قبل بضع سنواتٍ فقط من إمكانية أن يخلف الملك عبد الله في الحكم.</p>
<p>وُلد الأمير نايف في العام 1934 بالقرب من الطائف، وتلقى تعليمه في الرياض في ما كان يُسمى &#8220;مدرسة الأمراء&#8221;، حيث كان أساتذته رجال دينٍ من المذهب الوهابي، وهو مذهبٌ سُني يسيطر على المملكة. ويُذكر بأن التحالف بين آل سعود والوهابيين يعود إلى حوالي ثلاثة قرون، إلى بداية حكم السعوديين. ففي العام  1744 التحق واعظٌ متجول ومتدين يُدعى محمد بن عبد الوهاب بقوات رأس الأسرة السعودية حينذاك، محمد آل سعود، لإنشاء أول مملكة سعودية. وفي حين تولى السعوديون القيادة السياسية والعسكرية، تولى محمد بن عبد الوهاب وذريته القيادة الدينية والشرعية. وكان محمد بن عبد الوهاب وتلاميذه ينشرون نسخة متزمتة وطائفية عن الإسلام تحثّ على العودة إلى أصوليةٍ حرفية وإلى عدم التسامح تجاه أي انحرافٍ عن آرائهم المتشددة لما يعتقدون أنه الدين الأصلي الذي دعا إليه النبي محمد.</p>
<p>في وقتٍ مبكرٍ من القرن التاسع عشر، عندما كانت الإمبراطورية العثمانية منهمكة بالتصدي لغزو نابليون لمصر وفلسطين، شنَّ السعوديون حملة للاستيلاء على أراضٍ من الامبراطورية. وشنّت جيوشهم القبلية حملات على مناطق تشكّل العراق حالياً، ونهبت المدينة الشيعية المقدسة كربلاء. ثم توجّهت هذه القوات غرباً واحتلت مدينتيْ مكة المكرمة والمدينة المنورة، وعملت على تطهيرهما من رموز الحكم العثماني وأي رموز وجدها الوهابيون منحرفة عن معتقداتهم. وكانت معظم دول العالم الإسلامي في ذلك الوقت تنظر إلى السعوديين وحلفائهم من رجال الدين على أنهم مجموعة من المتعصبين والمغتصبين، بشكلٍ مماثل من بعض النواحي لنظرة عامة المسلمين هذه الأيام إلى الدولة الإسلامية. واتسعت مساحة أراضي هذه الدولة السعودية الأولى في ذروة عهدها إلى أكبر مما هي عليه اليوم، ولكن لم يستمر حكمها سوى لفترة وجيزة. وعندما لحقت الهزيمة بالفرنسيين، أرسل العثمانيون الجيوش إلى شبه الجزيرة العربية لاسترداد المدينتين المقدستين، ومن ثم قاموا بتدمير العاصمة السعودية في الدرعية، الكائنة على مقربةٍ من مدينة الرياض اليوم. وفي وقتٍ لاحقٍ، تمَّ نفي السعوديين وإبعادهم إلى الكويت، ولم يتمكنوا من استئناف سلطتهم على شبه الجزيرة العربية إلَّا حين تولى ابن سعود قيادة جيشه القبلي وأخرجه من المنفى، واستردَّ مدينة الرياض، وأنشأ المملكة السعودية الثالثة، التي استمرت حتى هذا اليوم – تماماً كقوة الوهابيين.</p>
<p>إنّ تحالف الوهابيين مع العائلة المالكة يسمح لهم بالإشراف على المجتمع السعودي وفرض القانون والعادات الإسلامية، وهذا ما يفعلونه الآن، جزئياً، بالتعاون بشكلٍ وثيق مع وزارة الداخلية، التي تعدّ حليفهم الأكثر أهمية في الحكومة. وفي العام 1970، عندما كان الأمير فهد، شقيق الأمير نايف، وزيراً (للداخلية)، عيَّن الأمير نايف نائباً له. وفي العام 1975، عندما أصبح الأمير فهد ولياً للعهد، بعد أن اغتيل أخوهما الأكبر الملك فيصل على يد أميرٍ ساخطٍ غاضب بسبب إدخال التلفزيون إلى المملكة، تولى الأمير نايفٌ منصب وزير الداخلية خلفاً للأمير فهد.</p>
<p>وكوزيرٍ للداخلية، ذاع صيت الأمير نايف كشخصٍ رجعي متعنت. وربط نفسه بشكلٍ وثيق جداً بالعناصر الأكثر تزمتاً من رجال الدين، وعارض الإصلاح والتغيير، ورفض مطالب بمنح المزيد من حرية التعبير، وواصل معاملة الأقلية الشيعية – ( حوالي 10 بالمئة من سكان المملكة ويقطن معظمهم في المنطقة الشرقية الغنية بالنفط ) –  كمواطنين من الدرجة الثانية، ولم يُبدِ التسامح مع أي نوعٍ من التنمية إلاَّ على مضض. وعندما سُئل الأمير نايف لماذا يعارض الإصلاحات التي ستضع المملكة على طريق التحول إلى ملكية دستورية، أجاب، وهو الذي كانت عينه ترنو للجلوس على العرش: &#8220;أنا لا أريد أن أكون مثل الملكة إليزابيث&#8221; . وكانت سياسات الأمير نايف متطرفة جداً، بحيث أنه أصبح يُلقب بالأمير المتشدد (أو الأمير الأسود) بين جالية كبيرة من المغتربين الغربيين العاملين في المملكة.</p>
<p>وفي نوفمبر 1979، شهدت المملكة تحدياً كبيراً لشرعية العائلة المالكة السعودية وحكمها. فقد قامت عصابة من المتطرفين الإسلاميين، ممن يعتقدون أن نهاية العالم المروعة قد حان آوانها، بالسيطرة على المسجد الحرام في مكة المكرمة. وهو المسجد الأهم في العالم، حيث توجد الكعبة المشرفة  بداخله، وهي أقدس موقع في الإسلام، والتي يُعتقد أنها أول بيتٍ بُني للعبادة.</p>
<p>وبعد أسابيع من القتال العنيف من قبل قواتٍ من وزارة الداخلية والحرس الوطني السعودي، وبمساعدةٍ من قواتٍ خاصة فرنسية جندتها العائلة المالكة سراً وبمواد كيميائية قاتلة، استطاعت العائلة إقناع رجال الدين الوهابيين بالسماح باستخدامها في المسجد الحرام، تمكنت الحكومة من هزيمة المتطرفين. ولكن تعرضت الحكومة لكثيرٍ من الإحراج، عندما اتضح خلال استجواب الجناة أن العديد منهم كانوا معروفين لدى وزارة الداخلية. وحتى أن بعضهم كان قد اعتقل قبل الهجوم على المسجد، ولكن جرى الإفراج عنهم بناءً على توصية من كبار رجال الدين المقربين من الأمير نايف.</p>
<p>ومع ذلك، نجا الأمير المتشدد  من اللوم بسبب هذا الهجوم. وبدلاً من ذلك، كان أمير مكة المكرمة، وهو أحد الأمراء السعوديين الأكثر ليبرالية، كبش فداءٍ، في مثالٍ آخر على النمط الملكي المألوف لاسترضاء رجال الدين وحلفائهم المقربين على حساب الإصلاحيين.</p>
<p>أدخلت أحداث مكّة الخوف إلى قلب العائلة المالكة ودفعتها  لتكون أقرب من المؤسسة الوهابية من ذي قبل. فأبطأت من حركة الإصلاح، وزادت من الدعم المقدم للقضايا الإسلامية المسلحة في بلدانٍ أخرى. وعلى وجه الخصوص، قام السعوديون –( مع الكثير من المساعدة من الولايات المتحدة) &#8211; بتسليح المجاهدين الأفغان ودعمهم في محاربة الغزو السوفياتي لبلادهم بين الأعوام 1979 إلى 1989.</p>
<p>وقد جرى تكليف الملك سلمان الحالي، الذي كان آنذاك أمير الرياض، بجمع الأموال للمجاهدين من أفراد العائلة المالكة ومن غيرهم من السعوديين الأثرياء. وقد تمكن من تحويل عشرات الملايين من الدولارات للمجاهدين، وبعد ذلك فعل الشيء نفسه لدعم قضايا المسلمين في البوسنة وفلسطين. وفي وقتٍ لاحق، عندما أسس أسامة بن لادن تنظيم القاعدة، كان واضحاً بشكلٍ جلي بطء الأمير نايف في إدراكه أن تنظيم القاعدة يشكل تهديداً للمملكة. فقد كان على علاقةٍ ودية مع بن لادن أثناء الحرب الروسية الأفغانية، عندما كان هذا الأخير متحالفاً مع المجاهدين، وكان يُنظر إليه على أنه يركز حصراً على هزيمة السوفيات. وكان الأمير نايف يعتقد أن سمعة تنظيم القاعدة كمنظمةٍ إرهابية هي نتاج الدعاية الأمريكية، كما كان على يقينٍ من أن تنظيم القاعدة لا يشكل تهديداً حقيقياً للمملكة. وهذا وهمٌ لم يساوره هو وحده بل العديد من أفراد العائلة المالكة.</p>
<p>وعندما حذر جورج تينيت، مدير وكالة الاستخبارات المركزية، ومسؤولون استخباراتيون أمريكيون الأمير نايف من أن القاعدة قد أوجدت بُنية تحتية سرية واسعة داخل المملكة، شكّك بصحة الأمر، لأنه طالما كانت لديه شكوك في دوافع الولايات المتحدة في المنطقة. وبصفتي مستشار الرئيس كلينتون لشؤون الشرق الأوسط، فقد تعاملت بشكلٍ مكثف مع الأمير نايف خلال هذه الفترة. لقد كان ودياً في تعامله، ولكن غير متعاون في كثيرٍ من الأحيان. وعندما فجّر الإرهابيون الشيعة قاعدة سلاح الجو الأمريكي في أبراج الخبر في الظهران في العام 1996، مما أسفر عن مقتل 19 عسكريا أمريكياً ، كان الأمير نايف متردداً في تبادل المعلومات مع الأمريكيين عن الجناة وصلاتهم بإيران. وادعى أنه يخشى أن تستخدم واشنطن المعلومات لتبرير عملٍ عسكري ضدَّ إيران، مما سيجرّ المملكة إلى حرب. ولكني شعرت أن السبب الحقيقي هو أنه، أساساً، من المناهضين للولايات المتحدة.</p>
<p>بقي الأمير نايف على موقفه يتجاهل التحذيرات بشأن تنظيم القاعدة، إلى أن أصبح تجاهل التهديد الذي يطرحه هذا التنطيم أمراً مستحيلاً. وكان الأمير محمد بن نايف هو من تولى قيادة المعركة ضدّ تنظيم القاعدة. </p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>الابن يصعد أيضاً</p>
<p>على غرار الكثيرين من أبناء جيله من العائلة المالكة السعودية، التحق محمد بن نايف بمدرسة في الولايات المتحدة، وتلقى الدروس في كلية لويس وكلارك في بورتلاند، أوريغون، ولكنه لم يحصل على درجة علمية. ولتهيئته لخلافة والده في وزارة الداخلية، درس في مكتب التحقيقات الاتحادي في أواخر الثمانينيات، وفي معهد مكافحة الإرهاب في سكوتلاند يارد بين عاميْ 1992 و 1994. في تلك الفترة تقريباً، حين كنت ضابطاً أولاً في وكالة الاستخبارات المركزية (CIA) مختصاً في شؤون الشرق الأوسط، بدأ نجم محمد بن نايف يصعد كشخصٍ يمكنه تحقيق الكثير من الإنجازات.</p>
<p>وفي وقتٍ لاحق، بصفتي المساعد الخاص للرئيس كلينتون لشؤون الشرق الأدنى وجنوب آسيا في مجلس الأمن القومي، رافقت نائب الرئيس آل غور إلى  المملكة خلال جولةٍ لنا في الشرق الأوسط في مايو 1998. وخلال زياراتنا للرياض، التقينا بكلٍ من الأب الأمير نايف والابن محمد بن نايف. ولم نعلم إلّا في وقتٍ لاحق أن وزارة الداخلية كانت قد أحبطت مؤامرة لتنظيم القاعدة لمهاجمة قنصلية الولايات المتحدة في جدة بينما كان نائب الرئيس في لقاءٍ هناك مع ولي العهد آنذاك الأمير عبد الله.</p>
<p>شكلت المؤامرة التي حاكها بن لادن ضدّ آل غور استثناءً لتوجهه العام، فهو كان يتفادى القيام بأعمال عنفٍ  داخل المملكة. ولما كانت البُنية التحتية لتنظيم القاعدة داخل المملكة العربية السعودية قد وفرت له عدداً كبيراً من المجندين ودعماً مالياً وفيراً، حرص بن لادن على إبقاء كل ذلك خارج الرادار التابع لوزارة الداخلية. ويُعزى جزء من نجاحه الكبير إلى عدم إدراك  نايف لما يدور من حوله.</p>
<p>ثم جاءت أحداث 11 سبتمبر، حاملةً معها أخباراً تفيد أن  15 من الخاطفين الذين كانوا على متن الطائرات التي تم اسقاطها في الولايات المتحدة كانوا سعوديين. ولكن العقول حتى في ذلك الحين كانت بطيئة في التغير واستيعاب ما يجري. وحتى شهر ديسمبر 2002، كان نايف، على غرار الكثيرين في العائلة المالكة، لا يزال غير مقتنعٍ بأن تنظيم القاعدة  قد أنشأ قاعدة له داخل حدود المملكة، وأصرّ على أن الخاطفين السعوديين كانوا مجرد &#8220;مغفلين ينفذون مؤامرة صهيونية&#8221; &#8211; رغم حقيقة أن اثنين منهم، وفقاً لمصادر سعودية، قد سبق وشاركا في المؤامرة لمهاجمة آل غور.</p>
<p>أما  بن نايف، فكان مسألة مختلفة. مع حلول العام 2001، كان محمد بن نايف قد أصبح  شخصية مهمة تحظى باحترامٍ كبير في أمور الحرب على الإرهاب. وكان قد شغل قبل عامين منصب مساعد وزير الداخلية. وبتوليه هذا المنصب، تنفس المسؤولون الأمريكيون الصعداء، حيث أسندت إليه إدارة معظم الأعمال اليومية بدلاً من والده. وكان ذلك من حسن حظ السعوديين، لأن بن لادن كان على وشك تحويل انتباهه إلى وطنه. وبعد أحداث 11 سبتمبر وبعد أن أطاح الأمريكيون لاحقاً بحركة طالبان –( التي كانت تستضيف تنظيم القاعدة في أفغانستان )- أمر بن لادن الخلايا السرية لتنظيم القاعدة داخل المملكة العربية السعودية ببدء العمليات ضدَّ النظام الملكي وحليفه الأمريكي.</p>
<p>في 14 فبراير 2003، الذي صادف عيد الأضحى، أصبحت نوايا بن لادن في المملكة العربية السعودية واضحة لا لبس فيها. فقد أصدر رسالة صوتية بعنوان &#8220;بين فرقة من الفرسان&#8221;، متهماً آل سعود بخيانة الدولة العثمانية في الحرب العالمية الأولى وبالوقوف إلى جانب البريطانيين والصهاينة في تلك الآونة. والآن تعطي العائلة المالكة، كما قال، المساجد وغيرها من الأماكن المقدسة للصليبيين الأمريكيين وتتواطأ سراً في مؤامرة مع &#8220;اليهود والأمريكيين&#8221; لخيانة فلسطين وإنشاء &#8220;إسرائيل الكبرى&#8221; في المنطقة. وإذ توقّع أن يتم استخدام القواعد الجوية الأمريكية في المملكة  لشن جزء من الغزو على العراق الذي بات وشيكاً على حدّ قوله، أطلق بن لادن على أفراد العائلة المالكة السعودية وعلى حلفائها في الكويت والبحرين وقطر لقب &#8220;الخونة&#8221;.</p>
<p>تعرضت المملكة لأول هجوم كبير في 12 مايو 2003، في مجمعٍ في الرياض حيث كان يقيم خبراء عسكريون أجانب يعملون مع القوات المسلحة السعودية. وشارك  أكثر من اثني عشر مسلحاً من إرهابيي القاعدة بالسيارات المفخخة والأسلحة الصغيرة في ذلك الهجوم الذي أسفر على الأقل عن مقتل ثمانية أمريكيين، وأستراليين اثنين، والعديد من الغربيين الآخرين، فضلاً عن عددٍ من حراس الأمن السعودي. وكانت هذه الضربة الأولى ضمن ما أصبح بعد ذلك حملة إرهابٍ ضد العمال الأجانب في المملكة ومضيفيهم السعوديين. وكان روبرت جوردن، سفير الولايات المتحدة في الرياض حينذاك الذي ضغط على السعوديين لعدة أشهرٍ لأخذ تنظيم القاعدة بجديةٍ أكبر، قد أطلق على هجوم مايو اسم &#8220;بيرل هاربر&#8221; السعودية.</p>
<p>ومباشرة بعد هجوم مايو، حضر جورج تينيت، مدير وكالة الاستخبارات المركزية في إدارة الرئيس كلينتون في آخر عهده وخلال السنوات الأولى لعهد الرئيس جورج دبليو بوش، إلى المملكة لمقابلة ولي العهد الأمير عبد الله، الذي كان الوصي والمسؤول الأول الفعلي في المملكة لثماني سنوات تقريباً، بعد أن أصيب الملك فهد بسكتة دماغية. وكان تينيت قد خاطب ولي العهد ووفقاً لما ورد في مذكراته التي تحمل عنوان، في قلب العاصفة،  قائلاً: &#8220;يا صاحب السمو الملكي، إن هدف تنظيم القاعدة الآن هو عائلتك ووضع حدٍ لفترة حكمها. لقد تمّ إعداد عناصر تنظيم القاعدة لاغتيال أعضاء من العائلة المالكة ولمهاجمة أهداف اقتصادية رئيسية.&#8221; وأضاف محذراً السعوديين: &#8220;لدينا معلومات دقيقة في ما يتعلق بالتخطيط. والخطة موجّهة ضد عائلتك.&#8221;  وتمكن تينيت من إقناع عبد الله ومحمد بن نايف بأن الخطر كان حقيقياً.</p>
<p>كان تينيت يعتبر محمد بن نايف أقرب شريكٍ لوكالة الاستخبارات المركزية في محاربة القاعدة  والمسؤول الأساسي الذي سيضع حداً للتهديد الذي يشكله تنظيم القاعدة لآل سعود بين عامي 2003 و 2006. وفي هذا السياق، قال  تينيت  إنّه &#8220;الأهم من بين الأشخاص الذين تحدثت إليهم.  فهو شاب نسبياً، وقد وضعنا فيه قدراً كبيراً من الثقة وأوليناه احتراماً عظيماً.&#8221;  خلال تلك الفترة تمكّن محمد بن نايف من تحقيق حضورٍ مميز ولافت.</p>
<p>وعلى مدى السنوات الثلاث التالية، كانت المملكة ساحة معركة إذ هاجم تنظيم القاعدة أهدافاً شملت حتى مقر وزارة الداخلية في الرياض. وتم الاعتداء على مجمعات أخرى للأجانب، وخُطف أمريكي ثم قُطع رأسه. واشتبك إرهابيو القاعدة والشرطة في كل مدينة سعودية كبيرة تقريباً وفي العديد من البلدات الأخرى. كما تبع ذلك مزيدٌ من الهجمات على أهدافٍ أجنبية، بما في ذلك هجومُ كبير على القنصلية الأمريكية في جدة في 6 ديسمبر 2004، وخلال هذا الهجوم كان الإرهابيون على وشك أسر دبلوماسية أمريكية شابة. ولقي المئات حتفهم وأصيب عددٌ أكبر خلال هذه المعارك. وكانت هذه أطول حملةٍ متواصلة من الاضطرابات العنيفة واجهتها المملكة العربية السعودية في خمسين عاما، والتحدي الداخلي الأخطر الذي واجهه آل سعود منذ تأسيس الدولة الحديثة في العام 1902. وقبل أن تنتهي هذه الاضطرابات، كانت قد كلفت الحكومة أكثر من 30 مليار دولار.</p>
<p>تولى محمد بن نايف قيادة الهجوم المضاد. أصدرت وزارة الداخلية قوائم  بأسماء إرهابيي القاعدة ممن هم مطلوبين بشدة لدى السلطات، وشرعت بعد ذلك تتعقبهم بلا هوادة. وكلما كان يتم القضاء على أيٍ من المذكورين في القائمة، سواء في المعارك أو الكمائن، كانت الوزارة تقوم بتحديث القائمة لتضمّ أسماءً أخرى لمقاتلين مطلوبين آخرين من تنظيم القاعدة. كانت أوقاتاً صعبة وخطيرة &#8211; فمعظم الأجانب الذين كان بوسعهم مغادرة المملكة غادروها، أو على الأقل أرسلوا عائلاتهم بعيداً. وكان محمد بن نايف يمثل واجهة الحرب السعودية على تنظيم القاعدة، ويظهر على شاشات التلفزيون وفي الصحف لشرح التهديد الذي كانت المملكة تواجهه.</p>
<p>كانت استراتيجية محمد بن نايف فعاّلة تتميّز بحدّتها، كذلك كان هو حريصاً على عدم الانخراط في عمليات تفتيش وتدمير ضخمة تربك النظام، والتي قد تؤدي إلى أضرارٍ جانبية، وتعطي انطباعاً بأن المملكة تحترق. كانت المطاردات هادفة وانتقائية وتفادت سقوط ضحايا من المدنيين، وابتعدت عن العنف الذي اتسمت به عمليات مكافحة الإرهاب في الجزائر في التسعينيات وفي العراق حالياً. وهكذا تمكنت الفرق الخاصة التابعة لوزارة الداخلية من مطاردة الإرهابيين والقبض عليهم دون التسبب برد فعلٍ سلبي بين الشعب. وقد أدرك الأمير ضرورة الحفاظ على التناسبية والتزام الحذر في مكافحة الإرهاب بطريقة سرية.</p>
<p>وبحلول العام 2007، بدت سيطرة محمد بن نايف ووزارة الداخلية على تنظيم القاعدة واضحة، وبدأ التهديد يتلاشى. خسر الجهاديون معركة السيطرة على القلوب والعقول في البلاد. وبينما تعاطف كثيرٌ من السعوديين مع معركة بن لادن ضد أمريكا، خاب أملهم عندما مات سعوديون أبرياء في هجمات تنظيم القاعدة ووصلت الحرب إلى بيوتهم. أخفق الإرهابيون في كسب التأييد الشعبي لقضيتهم، مما ألحق الهزيمة بهم.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>رجل الاستخبارات: محمد بن نايف</p>
<p>استغرق الأمر ثلاث سنواتٍ للتغلب على تنظيم القاعدة داخل المملكة العربية السعودية، ولكنه لم يختفِ تماماً. وبدلاً من ذلك، انتشر كالسرطان في أنحاء كثيرة من الشرق الأوسط وفي أفريقيا. وفي العام 2009، ظهر تنظيم القاعدة في شبه الجزيرة العربية في اليمن، خلفاً للتنظيم الذي هزمه محمد بن نايف في  السعودية. وفي ديسمبر 2009، أرسل التنظيم عمر فاروق عبد المطلب، النيجيري الجنسية، لتفجير طائرة نورث ويست ايرلاينز، الرحلة 253، في يوم عيد الميلاد، في طريقها إلى ديترويت فوق منطقة جنوب أونتاريو. ولكن المتفجرات التي كانت مخبأة في ملابسه الداخلية لم تنفجر بالشكل الصحيح، وأوقفه أحد الركاب وأفراد طاقم الطائرة.</p>
<p>وإذ بقي محمد بن نايف حذراً من الخطر الذي لا يزال تنظيم القاعدة يشكله على المملكة، أعدّ شبكة من المخبرين، وأحبط أكثر من مؤامرة ضدَّ الولايات المتحدة. وعندما وضع تنظيم القاعدة قنابل على متن طائرات تابعة لشركتيْ UPS و FedEx كانت متجهة من اليمن إلى شيكاغو، عشية انتخابات الكونغرس الأمريكي في العام 2010، اتصل محمد بن نايف بالبيت الأبيض وقدَّم إلى جون برينان، مستشار الرئيس أوباما لشؤون الإرهاب، أرقام الحاويات القاتلة لمتابعتها. وقد تمّ توقيف هذه الطائرات بعد ذلك في كلٍ من دبي وشرق ميدلاند بالمملكة المتحدة، وأزيلت القنابل.</p>
<p>يُعد محمد بن نايف، بالإضافة إلى سمعته الدولية كرئيسٍ واسع الحيلة للأعمال الاستخباراتية، بطلاً في بلده نتيجة للحادث الذي كاد أن يكلفه حياته منذ ست سنوات. فقد وافق محمد بن نايف على لقاء عبد الله عسيري، أحد إرهابي تنظيم القاعدة، الذي قال إنه سيسلم نفسه للسلطات شرط أن يسلّم نفسه مباشرة إلى نائب وزير الداخلية السعودي. ووعد عسيري أنه إذا كان بوسعه لقاء الوزير وجهاً لوجه، فإنه سيكون بعد ذلك قادراً على إقناع رفاقه – (بمن فيهم شقيقه إبراهيم عسيري، أفضل صانع للقنابل في تنظيم القاعدة والذي جهَّز في وقتٍ لاحقٍ القنابل التي وضعت على الطائرتين المتجهتين الى ديترويت وشيكاغو) –  على الاستسلام  كذلك. وعندما جرى اللقاء يوم 27 أغسطس 2009، فجَّر عسيري قنبلة كلفته حياته، ولم تلحق بالأمير سوى جروح طفيفة. وبعد عدة ساعاتٍ، ظهر محمد بن نايف على شاشة التلفزيون ليروي القصة للشعب السعودي، من دون الدخول في التفاصيل.</p>
<p>وبعد بضعة أيام، اطَّلع ليون بانيتا، مدير وكالة الاستخبارات المركزية حينذاك، الذي كان يزور الرياض، على تفاصيل ما حدث. روى محمد بن نايف أنه جلس وعسيري على وسائد كانت تفترش الأرض بعد أن دخل هذا الأخير إلى مكتبه. وفجأة بدأ عسيري يرتعش ويبكي، ثم أخرج هاتفاً خلوياً من ثيابه قائلاً إنه يريد الاتصال بعائلته. وبعد مكالمة شديدة اللهجة مع شقيقه إبراهيم، أعطى الهاتف إلى محمد بن نايف، الذي استهل المحادثة بالتحية العربية التقليدية: السلام عليكم. وفي تلك اللحظة بالذات، فجَّر عسيري نفسه وتناثرت أشلاؤه إرباً إرباً. بيد أن المتفجرات، التي كانت مخبأة في جسمه، انفجرت نحو الأسفل وتركت حفرة حيث كان يجلس، ونجا الأمير محمد بن نايف. </p>
<p>كانت هذه هي المحاولة الرئيسية الثالثة على الأقل لاغتيال الأمير. ولكن هذه المحاولات الفاشلة عززت لديه العزم على  قيادة هجوم المملكة العربية السعودية المضاد لتنظيم القاعدة. ولطالما تميزت شخصيته بحسٍ عالٍ بالالتزام، وهي صفة ورثها عن والده، الأمير نايف، الذي ظلَّ وزيرا للداخلية لمدة 37 عاماً.</p>
<p>وفي العام 2011، ارتقى والد محمد بن نايف، الأمير نايف، وأصبح ولياً للعهد، وأحدث هذا التطور الكثير من القلق في نفوس المسؤولين الأمريكيين، الذين لا يريدونه على العرش. وبدأ في العام نفسه الربيع العربي، ورحّب الكثيرون في الغرب بما كان يبدو إطاحة سلمية للأنظمة الاستبدادية في تونس ومصر، مع ما رافق ذلك من احتجاجاتٍ  في أماكن أخرى في المنطقة، بما في ذلك مملكة البحرين، جارة المملكة العربية السعودية. كان الأمير نايف، مثل الكثيرين ممن هم في السلطة في المنطقة، مذعوراً من ما كان يحدث، ومغتاظاً عندما ضغط الرئيس أوباما على حسني مبارك ليتنحى عن رئاسة مصر. وشجع الأمير نايف التدخل السعودي في البحرين لدعم العائلة المالكة السُنية هناك التي كانت تواجه اضطرابات وسط غالبيتها الشيعية. وأعقب ذلك قمعٌ عنيف، وجرى سحق حركة الإصلاح هناك. ورغم  الاحتجاجات الأمريكية الصامتة، لا تزال القوات السعودية على أرض جزيرة البحرين حتى هذا اليوم.</p>
<p>أما في السعودية، فقد حثَّ الأمير نايف أخاه غير الشقيق، الملك عبد الله، على الرد على مطالب التغيير من دون مساومة. ولكن الملك عبد الله اتخذ موقفاً أكثر مرونة، علماً بأنه قام على مدى سنواتٍ بإدخال إصلاحات محدودة ولكن بحذر وعلى مراحل. وفي عهده، أتيحت لعدد أكبر من النساء السعوديات فرصة الحصول على التعليم العالي وعلى شغل بضع الوظائف الحكومية من المستوى المتوسط على الأقل. وكانت هناك تلميحات بأن النساء في السعودية قد يُسمح لهن في يومٍ من الأيام بقيادة السيارات. وعيَّن أيضاً مجالس تمثيلية كانت لها كلمتها في الشؤون البلدية. كما خصص أكثر من مئة مليار دولار كنفقات جديدة لتحسين أوضاع الطبقات الدنيا والوسطى في السعودية.</p>
<p>لكن الإصلاحات التي أدخلها الملك عبد الله لم تمسّ أبداً بثوابت النظام السعودي. فوزارة الداخلية، التي يتولى إدارتها حالياً محمد بن نايف، قمعت من دون رحمة المعارضين وسجنت كل من ينادي بالإصلاح. لقد كان محمد بن نايف يتمتع  بالدهاء في ما يتعلق بالتهديدات الإرهابية في المملكة، ولكنه لم يظهر قدرة مماثلة بشأن مخاطر منع مواطني المملكة من التعبير عن آرائهم بحرية. وعليه، فإن إصلاحات الملك عبد الله جرى تدريجياً عكس اتجاهها أو تعطيلها. وهكذا، أحبط الرجعيون مرة أخرى الإصلاحيين.</p>
<p>تدهورت صحة الأمير نايف في العام 2012. وعندما توفي في شهر يونيو من ذلك العام في جنيف، عن عمرٍ يناهز 78 عاماً، تنفّست واشنطن الصعداء وشعرت بالتفاؤل بشأن العمل مع ابنه محمد بن نايف، الذي كان بحلول ذلك الوقت قد ارتدى بالفعل عباءة أمير مكافحة الإرهاب.</p>
<p>لقد كان محمد بن نايف ملماً بأحدث التكتيكات المبتكرة في مجال مكافحة الإرهاب، وخاصة في ما يتعلق بالجهود الرامية إلى إعادة تأهيل الإرهابيين الذين إما ألقت الشرطة القبض عليهم أو انشقوا عن الجهاز الإرهابي بسبب خيبة الأمل من القضية الجهادية. وتدير وزارة الداخلية اليوم خمسة سجونٍ تحت حراسةٍ أمنية خاصة مشددة تضم حواليْ 3,500 سجين، جميعهم تقريباً عناصر سابقة في تنظيم القاعدة. ولم يكن  الهدف من هذه السجون اعتقالهم، وإنما إعادة تأهيلهم. يُغدق على السجناء بالإكراميات، ويُسمح لأقاربهم بزيارتهم، كما يُسمح لهم بحضور حفلات الزفاف والمشاركة بتشييع الجنازات وسط حراسة. وتتلقى أسرهم مساعداتٍ مالية خاصة من الحكومة لتحسين ظروفهم من سكنٍ ورعاية طبية وتعليم. والهدف  من ذلك هو جعل عائلات الإرهابيين السابقين مسؤولة عن مستقبل أبنائها. ويقوم ذلك على نظريةٍ مفادها أنه إذا شعرت العائلة بفائدة إعادة تأهيل أبنائها الضالين، فستقنعهم بأنهم قد ضلوا الطريق. </p>
<p>وتعترف وزارة الداخلية بأن 20 بالمئة من &#8220;خريجي&#8221; سجون إعادة التأهيل في السعودية يعودون إلى الإرهاب، ولكن هذه النسبة  أقل بكثير من تلك في سجون الولايات المتحدة وأوروبا.</p>
<p>ومع ذلك، تشوب النظام الذي طبقه الأمير محمد بن نايف، الذي غدا الآن ولياً للعهد، عيوبٌ كبيرة. فكونه يرأس وزارة الداخلية المهيبة (تولى الوزارة في العام 2012)، فهو، كوالده، يمثل الوجه العلني للقمع في المملكة. فالمنشقون في أرجاء دول الخليج يتهمونه بترويج نسخة القمع &#8220;باكس سعوديانا&#8221;، لأن النظام الملكي لا يزال يعامل كافة أشكال المعارضة على أنها إرهابٌ.</p>
<p>إن حجم قمع الحكومة لمختلف أشكال المعارضة قد أثار بحق أسئلة جديدة حول الحكمة من المحافظة على علاقاتٍ وثيقة بين آل سعود والولايات المتحدة وغيرها من الديمقراطيات الغربية. ودعت مجلة &#8220;ذي إيكونوميست&#8221; إلى وضع حدٍ لاستمرار هذا الوضع مع المملكة واتباع نهجٍ أكثر صرامة لتشجيع الشفافية والمساءلة في السياسة السعودية. ففي افتتاحيةٍ  لها عقب تولي الأمير سلمان عرش المملكة، بعنوان &#8220;حلفٌ غير مقدس&#8221;، كتبت هذه المجلة أن &#8220;الوهابية (أي السعوديين) تغذي المخاطر التي تهدد ليس العالم الخارجي فحسب، ولكن السلالة نفسها&#8221; من خلال تشجيع التطرف.</p>
<p>كان الرئيس أوباما مؤيداً قوياً للمملكة، وكانت المكان الأول في الشرق الأوسط الذي زاره بصفته رئيساً للبلاد. ولكنه قال إنه رغم التهديدات الخارجية الحقيقية التي يواجهها السعوديون، بما في ذلك إيران، فالتهديد الداخلي هو الأكثر خطورة. فسكان المملكة &#8220;في بعض الحالات مستبعدون، والشباب يعانون البطالة، وتسود أيديولوجية هدّامة وعدمية، واعتقاد بغياب مَخْرجٍ سياسي مشروع  للمظالم.&#8221; ووعد الرئيس بإجراء &#8220;محادثاتٍ حازمة&#8221; مع القيادة (السعودية) بشأن تحرير بعض سياساتها.</p>
<p>ولكن بدلاً من ذلك، قرّب الملك سلمان المملكة من المؤسسة الوهابية. فبعد فترةٍ وجيزة من توليه العرش، طرد الملك المرأة الوحيدة المعيَّنة بمستوى وزير في مجلس الوزراء لمطالبتها بإدخال حصصٍ للتربية البدنية للفتيات مما جعلها هدفاً للمتشددين. كما التقى الملك سلمان في كثيرٍ من الأحيان مع أعضاء رجعيين من النخبة الدينية المعروفين بتحفظهم الشديد. وكان قد سبق وأقام معهم علاقات وثيقة خلال   الخمسين عاماً التي كان فيها أميرَ الرياض، وهي فترة تطورت فيها المدينة وازداد عدد سكانها من حوالي200 ألف إلى أكثر من 7 ملايين نسمة، ولكنها حافظت على مكانتها باعتبارها المدينة الأكثر محافظة في العالم الإسلامي.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>دخول الدولة الإسلامية واليمن</p>
<p>يُعد المذهب الوهابي السائد في المملكة الأكثر أصولية في الإسلام السُني، إلا أنه بات الآن محاطاً بمتطرفين دينيين أكثر تشدداً وغلواً، وأشد كراهية للأجانب، وأكثر عنفاً. فالمشاهد المروعة التي أظهرتها الدولة الإسلامية في العراق وسوريا في العام 2014 تمثل تحدياً جديداً للعالم، ولا سيما لمحمد بن نايف ولبرنامجه في مكافحة الإرهاب. أعدّت الدولة الإسلامية حملةً متعددة الجوانب للعودة بصفتها وريثة تنظيم القاعدة في بلاد ما بين النهرين، الذي توارى عن الأنظار خلال تدفق القوات الأمريكية إلى العراق في العام 2007، وظهر مجدداً بعد انسحاب القوات الأجنبية. ففي العامين 2012 و2013 بدأت باستهداف السجون العراقية حيث كان يقبع إرهابيو القاعدة، وبتهيئة بُنية تحتية في دولة سوريا المجاورة تساعدها على الانبعاث مجدداً. وفي صيف العام 2014 شنت هجوماً يشبه الحرب الخاطفة عبر المناطق العراقية التي يقطنها المسلمون السُنة واستولت على الموصل،  ثاني أكبر مدينة في البلاد، وأعلنت إنشاء خلافة تحكم المسلمين كافةً.</p>
<p>في نوفمبر 2014 أعلنت الدولة الإسلامية أنها تهدف إلى السيطرة على مسجديْ مكة المكرمة والمدينة المنورة وطرد &#8220;رأس الحية&#8221; &#8211; العائلة المالكة السعودية. وحمل غلاف المجلة التي تصدرها باللغة الإنجليزية صورة للكعبة ترفرف فوقها راية الدولة الإسلامية السوداء. وهاجم مسلحو الدولة الإسلامية المواقع الأمنية السعودية على طول الحدود العراقية، وأرسلت انتحارييها لمهاجمة المساجد الشيعية داخل المملكة لتأجيج العداء الطائفي. ورداً على هذا التهديد، اعتقلت وزارة الداخلية المئات من عناصر الدولة الإسلامية، وبدأت ببناء سياج أمني أو جدار بطول 600 ميل على امتداد الحدود السعودية العراقية، مماثلٍ لجدار الألف ميل الذي شيّدته على طول الحدود السعودية اليمنية لصد هجمات تنظيم القاعدة في شبه الجزيرة العربية.</p>
<p>توفي الملك عبد الله في شهر يناير من هذا العام، بعد حكمٍ امتد على نحو 20 عاماً، كان في بدايته ولياً للعهد، علماً بأنه ملأ مكان الملك فهد، العاجز صحياً،  قبل أن يصبح ملكاً بكل معنى الكلمة. كما توفي في عهده إثنان من أولياء العهد، الأمير سلطان والأمير نايف. وقد حاول الملك عبد الله التحضير لخلافةٍ  منظمة. ففي شهر يوليو 2012 عيّن أخاه غير الشقيق الأمير مقرن نائباً لرئيس الوزراء، الثاني في الترتيب بعد ولي العهد الأمير سلمان، الذي أصبح الملك الآن، وهو أيضاً أخ غير شقيق، علماً بأن الأمير مقرن كان مقرباً جداً من الملك عبد الله وإصلاحاته.</p>
<p>تشكل وفاة الملك عبد الله معْلماً رئيسياً في تاريخ المملكة. فقد كان إصلاحياً وفقاً للمعايير السعودية، وشهد حكمه الذي امتد لفترةٍ أطول من فترات حكم أيٍ من إخوته، أوقاتاً عصيبة. وكان خليفته المعين، الأمير سلمان، أصغر منه سناً بـ 13 عاماً. وما إنْ جلس الملك سلمان على العرش، عيّن الأمير مقرن ولياً للعهد، كما كان متوقعاً، والأمير محمد بن نايف نائباً لرئيس الوزراء، أي الثاني في ترتيب الخلافة. وكان من المفترض أن يصبح الأمير مقرن، المولود في العام 1945، والابن رقم 35 لابن سعود، ملكاً في يوم من الأيام، وأن  يكون أمام الأمير محمد بن نايف  بضع سنواتٍ، يستعد خلالها للارتقاء إلى سدة الحكم ويهيئ  البلاد لنقل الحكم من أبناء ابن سعود إلى أحفاده.</p>
<p>ثم شهدت الأسرة الحاكمة بعد ذلك تعديلاً مذهلاً وغير مسبوق. ففي الساعة الرابعة من صباح يوم 29 أبريل، أقال الملك سلمان الأمير مقرن وعيَّن مكانه الأمير محمد بن نايف ولياً للعهد، كما عيَّن ابنه، الأمير محمد بن سلمان، ثانياً في ترتيب الخلافة. وحتى اليوم، لم يُعطَ أيّ تفسيرٍ لهذه الإقالة غير المسبوقة. وأشارت تكهنات قوية إلى أن الملك سلمان أجرى هذا التغيير لأن الأمير محمد بن نايف لا أبناء ذكور لديه (فقط ابنتان)، مما يعني أن محمد بن سلمان &#8211; الذي تقول بعض المصادر أنه لم يبلغ بعد الثلاثين من عمره – ستكون فرصته بوراثة العرش في يومٍ ما أفضل. ويتكهن البعض أن الأمير محمد بن نايف سيلاقي، عاجلاً أم آجلاً، المصير نفسه  لضمان وصول محمد بن سلمان إلى رأس المملكة.</p>
<p>أثار طموح الأمير محمد بن سلمان نفور العديد من زملائه الأمراء. وذاع صيته كشخصٍ متغطرس وقاسٍ، فقد كان يسيطر على السياسة النفطية، ولكن افتقاره التام للخبرة في مجال صناعة الطاقة كان واضحاً جداً. ومع ذلك، تجلّت نقطة ضعفه الرئيسية في ظهوره، وفي دوره كوزيرٍ للدفاع، وفي كونه القوة الدافعة والمدافع علناً عن السياسة السعودية تجاه الدولة الجارة، التي تعاني فقراً مدقعاً وتفتقر إلى الاستقرار السياسي في شبه الجزيرة العربية، ألا وهي اليمن.</p>
<p>طالما شكلت دولة اليمن شوكة دائمة في خاصرة المملكة العربية السعودية. فقد دخل الملك عبد العزيز بن سعود في حربٍ مع اليمن في العام 1934. واستولت  جيوشه على جزءٍ كبير من السهل الساحلي المنخفض على طول البحر الأحمر، ولكنه لم يستطع غزو المناطق الجبلية الداخلية من البلاد. وبموجب معاهدة للسلام بين الدولتين، تنازلت دولة اليمن عن العديد من محافظاتها الحدودية للمملكة، بالتالي شهد اليمن دوماً حركة تحررية. وفي ستينيات القرن الماضي، دعم السعوديون ملوك (أئمة) الطائفة الزيدية الشيعية، الذين حكموا اليمن، ضد حركةٍ جمهورية دعمتها مصر، وكانت تهدد بإسقاط جميع الممالك في شبه الجزيرة العربية.</p>
<p>ولكن في شهر مارس من هذا العام، شنَّ السعوديون غارات جوية على الحوثيين، وهم المتمردون من الطائفة الزيدية الشيعة الذين أطاحوا بالحكومة الموالية للسعودية في صنعاء في الخريف الماضي وسيطروا على أجزاء كبيرة من البلاد. ولم يُصبْ السعوديون بالهلع فعلاً إلا حين اتخذ الحوثيون الزيديون  قراراً بتسيير رحلات جوية مباشرة إلى طهران (الأمر الذي يُعتبر سابقة)، وعرضوا على إيران استخدام ميناء الحديدة، وتفاوضوا على صفقة نفط ٍ بسعرٍ رخيص مع إيران. ودعمت الدول العربية الأخرى جميعها في منطقة الخليج، باستثناء سلطنة عُمان، الرياض لشنّ حربها الجوية على اليمن. وشارك الأردن والمغرب ومصر أيضاً المملكة العربية السعودية في المجهود الحربي، ولكن دولة باكستان، التي لطالما كانت حليفةً للسعودية، رفضت المشاركة.</p>
<p>تقدم الولايات المتحدة مساعدة استخباراتية ولوجستية في هذه الحرب، رغم أنها لم تحصلْ على إشعارٍ من الرياض سوى قبل بضع ساعاتٍ من بدء الضربات الأولى. أطلق السعوديون في البداية على هذه الحملة اسم &#8220;عاصفة الحزم&#8221;، متعمدةً إرجاع  صدى حرب الولايات المتحدة ضدَّ نظام صدام حسين وطرد قواته من الكويت في العام 1991. وتعدَّ هذه الخطوة إلى حدٍ بعيد الأكثر حزماً في السياسة الخارجية في تاريخ المملكة الحديث. فالتدخلات السعودية السابقة في اليمن كانت تُدرج في خانة الشؤون السرية الخفية. يقدّم الملك سلمان القوة العسكرية السعودية بطريقةٍ جريئة  لم يسبق لها مثيل منذ أيام والده الملك عبد العزيز بن سعود في ثلاثينيات القرن الماضي. إن الرهانات عالية حقاً.</p>
<p>إلا أن المغامرة في اليمن تبدو متعثرة حتى الآن . ويبدو أن الحرب تسير نحو طريقٍ مسدود. وتسيطر المملكة العربية السعودية وحلفاؤها على المجال الجوي اليمني والمياه الساحلية وميناء عدن الجنوبي، في حين يسيطر الحوثيون الزيديون وحلفاؤهم على معظم شمال اليمن.</p>
<p>وفي الوقت ذاته، يخلق الحصار السعودي كارثة إنسانية لـ 25 مليون يمني، وتصب الحرب في مصلحة تنظيم القاعدة في شبه الجزيرة العربية. وأثناء محاربة السعوديين للحوثيين، سادت الفوضى في معظم شرق اليمن أكثر من المعتاد، مما سمح لتنظيم القاعدة بالسيطرة على أجزاء كبيرة من محافظة حضرموت في جنوب شرق البلاد، حيث عاش والد بن لادن وعائلته  قبل أن يهاجروا إلى المملكة في ثلاثينيات القرن الماضي.</p>
<p>تركت حرب اليمن، التي تُعتبر أول اختبارٍ كبير لسياسة الملك سلمان الخارجية، آثاراً عميقة على استقرار المملكة العربية السعودية وشبه الجزيرة العربية والمنطقة ككل. فالحرب لها بعدٌ طائفي سنيّ &#8211; شيعي، كما تشكل ساحةً للصراع السعودي الإيراني الأوسع. وعلاوة على ذلك، ولأن الحرب تتعلق، جزئياً، بالتطلعات اليمنية لتشكيل حكومة أكثر شمولية، فهي تمثل في الواقع العمل غير المنجز من الربيع العربي، الذي قاوم السعوديون نجاحه بضراوة.</p>
<p>ومن المرجح أن يجتذب الصراع المزيد من اللاعبين بسبب طول مدته، وأن ينتشر إلى دولٍ أخرى خارج اليمن. وبالفعل أثار هذا الصراع اشتباكاتٍ عنيفة بين قوات وزارة الداخلية بقيادة الأمير محمد بن نايف والميليشيات الشيعية في المنطقة الشرقية في السعودية.</p>
<p>باختصار، يمكن لحرب اليمن في نهاية الأمر أن تكون بقعة سوداء تلطخ عهد الملك سلمان، وتدمر طموحات كلٍ من الأمير محمد بن نايف والأمير محمد بن سلمان. ونظراً لربطه شخصه بالمجهود الحربي، وبصفته وزيراً للدفاع، فإن الأمير محمد بن سلمان لديه الكثير ليخسره.  وهو لا يزال يحظى حتى الآن باهتمام والده، وقد مثَّله في زياراتٍ إلى روسيا وفرنسا. وعندما ألغى الملك سلمان فجأة خططاً للقاء الرئيس أوباما في كامب ديفيد، إظهاراً لاستيائه من خطة الرئيس الأمريكي للتوصل الى اتفاقٍ نووي مع إيران، بعث الأميرين محمد بن نايف ومحمد بن سلمان لينوبا عنه في اللقاء. وحينذاك ضغط أوباما عليهما لإدخال إصلاحات، إلا أنه دعمهما في حربهما (في اليمن). وعندما حضر الملك سلمان أخيراً الى واشنطن، كانت المحادثات وجيزة وكان تركيز الجمهور السعودي على الأمير محمد بن سلمان أكثر من والده.</p>
<p>قد يكون محمد بن نايف ولي العهد الأكثر تأييداً للولايات المتحدة، وهو على الأرجح  ضابط المخابرات الأكثر نجاحاً في العالم العربي اليوم. فبانيتا، على غرار تينيت، أشاد بقدرات الأمير محمد بن نايف قائلاً عنه: &#8220;إنه الأذكى والأكثر خبرة في أبناء جيله.&#8221; وربما كان الملك فهد فقط، الذي شغل أيضاَ في السابق منصب  وزير الداخلية، من يتمتع بميلٍ فطري شديد لدعم المصالح الأمريكية. وعلى عكس والده، يبدو الأمير محمد بن نايف مرتاحاً تماماً للعمل بشكلٍ وثيق مع الأمريكيين. وفي كامب دايفيد، بدا منسجماً مع الرئيس أوباما. وكان العاملون معه قد ألقوا القبض مؤخراً على العقل المدبر لهجوم حزب الله السعودي في العام 1996 على ثكنةٍ عسكرية للولايات المتحدة في الخبر بالمملكة العربية السعودية الذي أسفر عن مقتل 19 عسكرياً أمريكياً. وكان الأمير محمد بن نايف قد تولى أصلاً مسؤوليات أكثر من أي سعودي من أبناء جيله، ومن المرجح أن تَثقل أعباؤه مستقبلاً، بالنظر إلى الفوضى المنتشرة في الشرق الأوسط في مرحلة ما بعد الربيع العربي. وهو يعلم أنه يحتاج إلى حلفاء.</p>
<p>ولكن يجب على واشنطن ألَّا تتوهم أن الأمير محمد بن نايف سيأخذ بمشورة الغرب لإدخال إصلاحات إلى المملكة. فالمملكة العربية السعودية لا تخفي أنها  المناوئ الرئيسي لكل ما يؤيده الربيع العربي منذ أن بدأت أحداثه في العام 2011 ولكل ما رحب به الكثيرون في الغرب. وكان السعوديون قد ساعدوا في تدبير انقلاب عام 2013 في مصر، الذي أعاد الحكم العسكري لأكبر دولةٍ عربية وسدَّد ضربة قاضية للربيع العربي. صحيحٌ، إنهم ماهرون في مكافحة الإرهاب، إلا أنهم  أيضاً  معارضون للثورات لا يعرفون الخجل.</p>
<p>المملكة العربية السعودية هي النظام الملكي المطلق الكبير والأخير في العالم. وهي لن تشهد أحداثاً شبيهة بما قام به جورباتشوف (تفكك الاتحاد السوفياتي)، لأن العائلة المالكة لن تتخلى عن سيطرتها على الدولة، كما أنها لن تخفف من علاقاتها مع الوهابيين ومذهبهم. فالملك سلمان، وولي العهد الأمير محمد بن نايف، وولي ولي العهد الأمير محمد بن سلمان، وكل من تبقى من المؤسسة السعودية تقريباً، يعتقدون أن استمراريتهم  لفترةٍ امتدت لأكثر من قرنين ونصف القرن من الزمان، في خضم السياسة المضطربة في الشرق الأوسط، لا يُعزى إلى تصميمهم الصلب على البقاء ملوكاً مطلقين فقط، بل إلى تحالفهم مع رجال الدين الوهابيين.</p>
<p>لقد صمد آل سعود  أكثر من العثمانيين، والناصريين، والشيوعيين، والبعثيين، ومن معظم الأسر الملكية الأخرى. وفي العام 1979، ظنَّ كثيرون أن هذه العائلة ستنتهي كما انتهى شاه إيران. بيد أنني توقعت، منذ كنت شاباً أعمل بوظيفة محلل لدى وكالة الاستخبارات المركزية مختص بالملف السعودي، أن أفراد هذه العائلة سيصمدون  لعدة عقودٍ مقبلة. لذا فمن السابق لأوانه التحدث عن نهايتهم، ولكن أظن أن الوقت تأخر جداً لنتوقع منهم التغيير.</p>
<p>بروس ريدل: هو زميل أول ومدير مشروع الاستخبارات في بروكنجز، وهو جزءٌ من مشاريع مركز بروكنجز للقرن الـ 21 لشؤون الأمن والاستخبارات. وبالإضافة إلى ذلك، يعمل ريدل كزميل أول في مركز سياسات الشرق الأوسط. وقد تقاعد في العام 2006 بعد ثلاثين عاماً من الخدمة في وكالة الاستخبارات المركزية الأمريكية، تولى خلالها وظائف عديدة في الخارج. وكان أحد كبار المستشارين في ما يتعلق بشؤون جنوب آسيا والشرق الأوسط لآخر أربعة رؤساء في طاقم موظفي مجلس الأمن القومي في البيت الأبيض. كما شغل منصب نائب مساعد وزير الدفاع لشؤون الشرق الأدنى وجنوب آسيا في البنتاغون، ومنصب كبير المستشارين في منظمة حلف شمال الأطلسي في بروكسل.</p>
<p>والآن يمكنك أيضاً قراءة &#8220;المؤمن&#8221; &#8211; وهو مقال يروي سيرة أبو بكر البغدادي، زعيم الدولة الإسلامية، بقلم ويليام مكانتس، الزميل في بروكنجز. ويقدم مكانتس تفاصيل تحولّ البغدادي إلى متطرف في عهد صدام حسين، وسعيه إلى أن شقّ طريقه إلى السلطة بعد الاتصال بمتطرفين آخرين في أحد السجون الأمريكية خلال حرب العراق، مما أسفر في نهاية المطاف عن إعلانه عن ولادة إمبراطورية إسلامية مصممة على غزو العالم.</p>
<p>للمزيد من المقالات والدراسات المتعلقة بالشرق الأوسط، تابعوا صفحة مركز بروكنجز الدوحة على موقع الفيسبوك.</p>
<p>على غرار المنشورات الأخرى الصادرة عن معهد بروكنجز، فإن الهدف من مقال بروكنجز هو المساهمة في إثراء النقاش وتحفيز الحوار حول القضايا الهامة، علماً بأن الآراء الواردة فيه تعبر عن رأي المؤلف فقط.</p>
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<feedburner:origLink>https://www.brookings.edu/essay/the-prince-of-counterterrorism-the-story-of-washingtons-favorite-saudi-muhammad-bin-nayef/</feedburner:origLink>
		<title>The prince of counterterrorism: The story of Washington&#8217;s favorite Saudi, Muhammad bin Nayef</title>
		<link>http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/172199202/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bruce Riedel]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Sep 2015 14:08:37 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.brookings.edu/?post_type=essay&#038;p=112419</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[The kingdom of Saudi Arabia, America’s oldest ally in the Middle East, is on the verge of a historic generational change in leadership. King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, 79, who ascended to the throne in January, following the death of King Abdullah, will be the last of the generation of leaders who built the&hellip;<div class="fbz_enclosure" style="clear:left"><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/e14_640360_16x9.jpg?w=320" title="View image"><img border="0" style="max-width:100%" src="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/e14_640360_16x9.jpg?w=320"/></a></div>
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</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By Bruce Riedel</p><p>The kingdom of Saudi Arabia, America’s oldest ally in the Middle East, is on the verge of a historic generational change in leadership. King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, 79, who ascended to the throne in January, following the death of King Abdullah, will be the last of the generation of leaders who built the modern kingdom, transforming it from a poor desert backwater into a prosperous, ultra-conservative regional power with enormous oil wealth.</p>
<p>House of Saud: A Primer</p>
<p>1/6Muhammad bin Nayef (MBN)</p>
<p>The crown prince and heir to the kingdom. Wikipedia</p>
<p>2/6 Nayef bin Abdul-Aziz (Nayef)</p>
<p>The father of MBN is the former crown prince of Saudi Arabia. He died before he could serve. Wikipedia</p>
<p>3/6 Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud (Salman)</p>
<p>The current king of Saudi Arabia. He ascended to throne in 2015. Wikipedia</p>
<p>4/6 Muhammad bin Salman (MBS)</p>
<p>The son of King Salman. He&#8217;s now the deputy crown prince. Wikipedia</p>
<p>5/6 Muqrin bin Abdul-Aziz (Muqrin)</p>
<p>The former crown prince. He was recently removed from the line of succession by King Salman. AP</p>
<p>6/6 Abdul-Aziz bin Saud(Ibn Saud)</p>
<p>The founder of the modern kingdom. He died in 1953. Wikipedia</p>
<p>What the future has in store for the kingdom is of great concern to Washington. Within months of becoming king, Salman plunged into what appears to be a quagmire war in Yemen, snubbed President Obama, and endorsed hardline clerics who are opposed to reforms that Obama argues are necessary if Saudi Arabia is to remain a stable partner for the United States. Not a promising start from the American point of view. However, one of the king’s first moves was greeted very enthusiastically: he changed the order of succession, pushing aside his half-brother Muqrin bin Abdul-Aziz as next in line to the throne and making one of his nephews, Muhammad bin Nayef, 56, the new crown prince and heir.</p>
<p>MBN, as he is known, will be the first of his generation to rule the kingdom—unless, of course, the king reshuffles the deck again. U.S. officials are keeping their fingers crossed, since MBN is the darling of America’s counterterrorism and intelligence services, having performed several critical services for the U.S. in his capacity as deputy minister of the interior and then minister of the interior—the office that oversees all domestic security matters. Unlike his father, who preceded him in those positions, he is pro-American, almost certainly more so than any other member of the Saudi leadership.      </p>
<p>Line of Succession</p>
<p>Only rulers and certain would-be rulers are shown.</p>
<p>Only recent rulers and certain would-be rulers are shown.</p>
<p>The Black Prince:Nayef Bin Abdul-Aziz </p>
<p>In the Saudi monarchy bloodlines are all-important. Who your father is in the royal pecking order is the major factor in determining your fate. If your father is a direct descendant of the king, you may become king. Since Saudis have many wives and concubines, the mother’s bloodline is less important but not irrelevant.</p>
<p>The founding patriarch of modern day Saudi Arabia, and father of all the kings who have followed him, was King Abdul-Aziz bin Saud, known in the West as Ibn Saud. He led his tribal army into power in Riyadh early in the 20th century, and by the 1930s he was the undisputed master of the Arabian Peninsula from the Red Sea to the Persian Gulf, including the two holy cities of Mecca and Medina.</p>
<p>Ibn Saud had at least 22 wives and 44 acknowledged sons. Since his death in 1953, six of those sons have ruled the kingdom in succession. His 23rd son, Nayef bin Abdul-Aziz (Nayef)—MBN’s father—was second in line to the throne, but died in 2012, just a few years before he would have succeeded King Abdullah.</p>
<p>King Ibn Saud and President Franklin Delano Roosevelt near Cairo in 1945. The alliance between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia goes back decades. Wikimedia Commons</p>
<p>Born in 1934 near Taif, Nayef was educated in Riyadh at what was called “the princes’ school,” where his teachers were clerics of the Wahhabi faith, the brand of Sunni Islam that runs the kingdom. The alliance between the House of Saud and the Wahhabis dates back nearly three centuries, to the very beginning of the rule of the Saudis. In 1744 an itinerant preacher and cleric named Muhammad Ibn Abd al-Wahhab joined forces with the then head of the Saudi family, Muhammad al-Saud, to create the first Saudi kingdom. While the Saudis provided political and military leadership, Wahhab and his descendants provided religious leadership and legitimacy. Wahhab and his disciples preached a puritanical and sectarian version of Islam that called for a return to literal fundamentalism and an intolerance of any deviation from their hard line views on what constituted the original faith of the Prophet Muhammad.</p>
<p>Early in the 19th century, at a time when the Ottoman Empire was preoccupied with fighting off Napoleon’s invasion of Egypt and Palestine, the Saudis mounted a land grab against the empire. Their tribal armies conducted raids into today’s Iraq and pillaged the Shiite holy city of Karbala, then turned west and conquered the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, purging them of any symbols of Ottoman rule and anything that struck the Wahhabi faithful as deviationist. Most of the Islamic world at the time viewed the Saudis and their clerical allies as fanatics and usurpers, similar in some ways to how the Islamic State is regarded by mainstream Muslims today. This first Saudi state was larger in territory at its peak than today’s but their reign was brief. Once the French were defeated, the Ottomans sent armies into Arabia to recover the holy cities and then destroy the Saudi capital at Diriyah, just outside of today’s Riyadh. Later the Saudis were exiled to Kuwait, not to resume power over the Arabian Peninsula until Ibn Saud led his tribal army out of exile, re-captured Riyadh, and established the third Saudi kingdom, which has lasted until the present day—as has the power of the Wahhabis.</p>
<p>In the 19th century, most of the Islamic world considered the Saudis fanatics and usurpers—much like mainstream Muslims today regard the Islamic State.</p>
<p>The Wahhabis’ alliance with the royal family allows them to oversee Saudi society and enforce Islamic law and customs, which they do in part by working closely with the Ministry of the Interior, their most important ally in the government. In 1970, when Nayef’s full brother Fahd was the minister, he made Nayef his deputy minister. In 1975 when Fahd became crown prince, after their older brother King Faisal was assassinated by a disgruntled prince angry at the introduction of television in the kingdom, Nayef succeeded Fahd as the minister.</p>
<p>As interior minister, Nayef had a reputation as an arch-reactionary. He aligned himself very closely with the most puritanical elements of the clergy, opposed reform and change, rejected demands for more freedom of expression, continued the treatment of the kingdom’s Shiite minority—around 10 percent of the population, located mostly in the oil rich Eastern Province—as second-class citizens, and only reluctantly tolerated any kind of development. When asked why he opposed reforms that would start the kingdom on the path to becoming a constitutional monarchy, Nayef, who clearly had his eye on the throne, replied, “I don’t want to be Queen Elizabeth.” His policies were so extreme that Nayef was known as the Black Prince among the large expatriate Western worker population in the kingdom.</p>
<p>Saudi Arabia is 85–90% Sunni and 10–15% Shia. The minority is mostly concentrated in the oil-rich Eastern Province and near the border with Yemen. Gulf/2000 Project, Columbia University</p>
<p>In November 1979, the kingdom experienced a major challenge to the Saudi royal family’s legitimacy and governance. A band of Islamic extremists who believed the apocalyptic End Times had arrived took control of the Great Mosque in Mecca. The largest in the world, it houses the Kaaba, the holiest site in Islam, which is believed to be the first house of worship.</p>
<p>Only after weeks of hard fighting by troops from the Interior Ministry and the Saudi National Guard, aided by French commandos whom the royal family secretly recruited, and by lethal chemicals that the family persuaded the Wahhabi clergy to allow them to use in the Grand Mosque, was the government able to rout the extremists. Much to the embarrassment of the government, however, when the culprits were interrogated it became clear that many of them had been known to the Interior Ministry. Some had even been detained prior to the attack on the mosque, but had been let go at the recommendation of senior clerics close to Nayef.</p>
<p>Saudi royalty was friendly with Osama bin Laden during the Russian-Afghan war and slow to realize that al-Qaida posed a threat to the kingdom.</p>
<p>However, the Black Prince escaped blame for the attack. Instead, the governor of Mecca, one of the most liberal Saudi princes, was made the scapegoat in yet another instance of the familiar royal pattern of appeasing the clerics and their close allies at the expense of reformers.</p>
<p>The episode frightened the royal family into moving even closer to the Wahhabi establishment, slowing reform, and stepping up support for militant Islamic causes in other countries. In particular, the Saudis—with much help from the United States—armed and otherwise supported the Afghan mujahedeen fighting the Soviet invasion of their homeland during the years 1979-89.</p>
<p>The so-called Black Prince, Nayef (left), with his son MBN—now Crown Prince—in Mecca in 2008. AP</p>
<p>The current King Salman, who was then governor of Riyadh, was put in charge of raising private funds for the mujahedeen from the royal family and other wealthy Saudis. He funneled tens of millions of dollars to the mujahedeen, and later did the same for Muslim causes in Bosnia and Palestine. Later, when Osama bin Laden founded al-Qaida, Nayef was conspicuously slow to recognize that al-Qaida posed a threat to the kingdom. He had become friendly with bin Laden during the Russian-Afghan war when bin Laden was allied with the mujahedeen, and viewed him as being exclusively focused on defeating the Soviets. Nayef believed al-Qaida’s reputation as a terrorist organization was a product of American propaganda and was sure that al-Qaida posed no real threat to the kingdom—a delusion he had in common with much of the royal family.</p>
<p>When George Tenet, director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and other senior American intelligence officials warned Nayef that al-Qaida had created an extensive underground infrastructure inside the kingdom, he was skeptical, largely because he had long been suspicious of the United States’ motives in the region. As President Clinton’s Middle East advisor I dealt extensively with Nayef during this period. He was cordial but often uncooperative. When Shiite terrorists bombed the U.S. Air Force base at the Khobar Towers in Dhahran in 1996, killing 19 airmen, Nayef was reluctant to share with the Americans information on the perpetrators and their links to Iran. He claimed to fear that Washington would use the information to justify military action against Iran, which would drag the kingdom into a war. But I felt the deeper reason was that he was, essentially, anti-American.</p>
<p>Nayef continued to ignore warnings about al-Qaida for years. But the threat would eventually become impossible to ignore, and it would be none other than Nayef’s own son, MBN, who would lead the battle against it.</p>
<p>Popular with U.S. officials, MBN shakes hands with President Obama during the 2015 Arab Summit in Washington. </p>
<p>AP</p>
<p>The Son Also Rises</p>
<p>Like many of his generation of Saudi royals, MBN went to school in the United States, attending classes at Lewis &amp; Clark College in Portland, Oregon, though he did not get a degree. To prepare him to succeed his father at the Ministry of the Interior he studied at the FBI in the late 1980s, and at Scotland Yard’s antiterrorism institute between 1992 and 1994. It was around that time, in my capacity as a senior CIA officer dealing with the Middle East, that MBN began to register on my horizon as an up and comer.</p>
<p>Later, as special assistant to President Clinton for Near East and South Asia affairs in the National Security Council, I accompanied Vice President Al Gore to the kingdom during a tour we took through the Middle East in May 1998. We met with both father Nayef and son MBN during our calls in Riyadh. Only afterward did we learn that the Interior Ministry had disrupted a plot by al-Qaida to attack the United States Consulate in Jiddah while the vice president was there to meet with then-Crown Prince Abdullah.</p>
<p>The plot against Gore was the exception to what had been bin Laden’s general rule of avoiding violent operations inside the kingdom. Since al-Qaida’s infrastructure inside Saudi Arabia provided him a large number of recruits and much financial support, he preferred to keep it off the Interior Ministry’s radar, and thanks in part to Nayef’s blindness was largely successful at doing so.</p>
<p>Fifteen of the 19 hijackers on 9/11 were Saudi citizens.</p>
<p>Then came 9/11, and the news that 15 of the hijackers aboard the planes that were downed in the U.S. were Saudis. But minds were slow to change even then. As late as December 2002 Nayef, like many in the royal family, was still not convinced that al-Qaida had a base within the kingdom’s borders, insisting that the Saudi hijackers were “dupes in a Zionist plot”—despite the fact that, according to Saudi sources, two of them had earlier been involved in the plot to attack Gore.</p>
<p>Nayef’s son was a different matter. By 2001, MBN was already a major—and respected—figure in the war on terrorism. He had become assistant minister of the interior two years earlier. In that capacity, much to the relief of U.S. officials, he had taken over most of the day-to-day management from his father. This would prove fortunate for the Saudis, because bin Laden was about to turn his attention to his native land. After 9/11 and the subsequent American overthrow of the Taliban, al-Qaida’s hosts in Afghanistan, he ordered al-Qaida’s underground cells inside Saudi Arabia to begin operations against the monarchy and its American ally.</p>
<p>On February 14, 2003—the Muslim holy day of Eid al-Adha—bin Laden’s intentions in Saudi Arabia became unmistakably clear. He issued an audio message titled “Among a Band of Knights,” accusing the House of Saud of betraying the Ottoman Empire in the First World War to the British and Zionists. And now the royal family, he said, was turning over the mosques and other holy places to the American Crusaders and secretly colluding in a plot with “Jews and Americans” to betray Palestine and create a “Greater Israel” in the region. Predicting that American air bases in the kingdom would be used to launch part of the invasion of Iraq that he said was imminent, he called the Saudi royals and their allies in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar “quislings.”</p>
<p>The first major attack in the kingdom came on May 12, 2003, at a compound in Riyadh that housed foreign military experts working for the Saudi armed forces. Over a dozen al-Qaida terrorists attacked the compound with car bombs and small arms. At least eight Americans, two Australians, and several other westerners were killed along with Saudi security guards. It was the first volley in what became a campaign of terror against foreign workers in the kingdom and their Saudi hosts. Robert Jordan, then the U.S. ambassador in Riyadh, had been pressing the Saudis to take al-Qaida more seriously for months; now he called the May attacks Saudi Arabia’s Pearl Harbor.</p>
<p>Immediately after the May attack, George Tenet, the director of the CIA at the end of President Clinton’s administration and in the first years of President George W. Bush’s, flew to the kingdom to see Crown Prince Abdullah, who had been serving as de facto regent for almost eight years, after King Fahd suffered a stroke. According to Tenet’s memoir, At the Center of the Storm, he told the Crown Prince, “Your Royal Highness, your family and the end of its rule is al-Qaida’s objective now. Al-Qaida operatives are prepared to assassinate members of the royal family and attack key economic targets.” Tenet warned the Saudis that, “we have great specificity with regard to the planning. It is directed against your family.” Tenet convinced Abdullah and MBN that the danger was acute.</p>
<p>Tenet regarded MBN as the CIA’s closest partner in fighting al-Qaida and the key to the defeat of the al-Qaida threat to the House of Saud between 2003 and 2006. “My most important interlocutor,” he wrote. “A relatively young man, he is someone in whom we developed a great deal of trust and respect.” It was during that period that MBN came into his own.</p>
<p>For the next three years the kingdom was a battlefield as al-Qaida attacked targets that included even the Interior Ministry’s own headquarters in Riyadh. Other compounds for foreign nationals were attacked and an American was kidnapped and then beheaded. Shootouts between al-Qaida terrorists and the police took place in virtually every major Saudi city and many towns. More attacks followed on foreign targets, including a major assault on the United States consulate in Jiddah on December 6, 2004, in which a young female American diplomat was almost captured by the terrorists. Hundreds died and many more were wounded during these battles. It was the longest sustained campaign of violent unrest Saudi Arabia had endured in 50 years, and the most serious internal challenge to the House of Saud since the establishment of the modern state in 1902. Before it was over, the war would cost the government well over $30 billion.</p>
<p>MBN led the counteroffensive. The Interior Ministry issued lists of the most wanted al-Qaida terrorists and then proceeded to hunt them down ruthlessly. Whenever any of the men on a list were eliminated in firefights or ambushes, the ministry would update the list with the names of the next most wanted al-Qaida fighters. It was a tough and dangerous time—most foreigners who could leave the kingdom did so, or at least sent their families away. MBN was the face of the Saudi war on al-Qaida, appearing on television and in the newspapers to explain the threat the kingdom was facing.</p>
<p>The CIA viewed MBN as its closest partner in fighting al-Qaida and the key to defeating the threat to the House of Saud.</p>
<p>Efficient and deadly as MBN’s strategy was, he was careful not to engage in the kind of massive and disruptive search-and-destroy operations that would have entailed collateral damage, and created an impression that the kingdom was in flames. His manhunts were targeted and selective, avoiding civilian casualties and the violence that characterized counterterrorism operations in Algeria in the 1990s and in Iraq today. Thus his Interior Ministry commandos were able to hunt terrorists without causing blowback among the population. The prince understood the need for proportionality and discretion in fighting a terror underground.</p>
<p>By 2007 it was apparent that MBN and the Interior Ministry had gained the upper hand on al-Qaida and the threat was dissipating. The jihadists lost the battle for hearts and minds in the country. While many Saudis sympathized with bin Laden’s battle against America, they were disillusioned when innocent Saudis died in al-Qaida attacks and the war was brought to their own homes. The terrorists failed to gain popular support for their cause, which doomed them to defeat.</p>
<p>The Great Mosque in Mecca receives millions of Muslim worshippers each year.</p>
<p>Reuters</p>
<p>The Spymaster: Muhammad Bin Nayef </p>
<p>It took three years to beat back al-Qaida inside Saudi Arabia, but it has not gone away. Instead, the organization has metastasized throughout much of the Middle East and into Africa. In 2009 al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, the successor to the group MBN defeated at home, surfaced in Yemen. In December 2009 it sent Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, a Nigerian, to blow up Northwest Airlines Flight 253 on Christmas Day as it was descending over southern Ontario to Detroit. But the explosives Abdulmutallab had hidden in his underwear failed to detonate properly and he was subdued by a fellow passenger and members of the airplane crew.</p>
<p>Ever vigilant against the danger al-Qaida continues to pose to the kingdom, MBN has cultivated a network of informants, and has foiled more than one plot against the U.S. When al-Qaida planted bombs on UPS and FedEx planes headed from Yemen to Chicago on the eve of the 2010 U.S. congressional elections, MBN called the White House and gave President Obama’s terrorism advisor, John Brennan, the tracking numbers for the deadly containers. The planes were then detained at stopovers in Dubai and East Midland in the United Kingdom and the bombs were removed.</p>
<p>In addition to his international reputation as a resourceful spymaster, MBN is a hero in his own country as the result of an incident in which he nearly lost his life six years ago. He agreed to meet Abdallah Asiri, an al-Qaida terrorist, who said he would turn himself in if he could surrender directly to the Saudi deputy minister of the interior. Asiri promised that if he could meet the minister face-to-face, he would then be able to convince his comrades—including his own brother, Ibrahim Asiri, al-Qaida’s premier bomb maker, the very man who would later build the bombs that were on the planes to Detroit and Chicago—to surrender as well. When the meeting took place on August 27, 2009, Asiri triggered a bomb, blowing himself up but only lightly wounding the prince. Hours later MBN appeared on Saudi television to tell the story to the kingdom, without getting into the details.</p>
<p>A few days later, Leon Panetta, then the director of central intelligence, who was visiting Riyadh, got a fuller account. After Abdallah Asiri entered his office, MBN said, the two men sat on the floor on a set of pillows. Suddenly Asiri began to shake and cry. He produced a cell phone from his robes, saying he wanted to call his family. After talking intensely on the phone with his brother, Ibrahim, he passed the phone to MBN, who opened the conversation with the traditional Arab greeting, salaam alaykum (God’s peace be with you). At that moment, Asiri blew himself into a thousand pieces. The explosives, hidden in Asiri’s rectum, blasted downward and left a crater where he had been sitting, but spared MBN.</p>
<p>This was at least the third major attempt on the prince’s life. But these near misses only reinforced MBN’s determination to lead Saudi Arabia’s counteroffensive against al-Qaida. He has always been characterized by an intense sense of duty, something he inherited from his father, who was minister of the interior for 37 years.</p>
<p>In 2011, MBN’s father, Nayef, moved up to become crown prince, much to the worry of American officials, who did not want him on the throne. That same year saw the blossoming of the Arab Spring. Many in the West welcomed what seemed to be the peaceful overthrow of authoritarian regimes in Tunisia and Egypt, accompanied by protests elsewhere in the region, including in Saudi Arabia’s neighbor, the island emirate of Bahrain. Nayef, however, like many people in power in the area, was horrified by what was happening—and irate when President Obama pressed Hosni Mubarak to quit the presidency of Egypt. Nayef pushed for Saudi intervention in Bahrain to shore up its Sunni royal family, which was facing unrest among its Shiite majority. A brutal crackdown ensued, crushing the reform movement there. Despite muted American protests Saudi troops remain on the island today.</p>
<p>MBN is the public face of repression in the kingdom. Dissidents across the Gulf States accuse him of promoting a “Pax Saudiana” and treating all dissent in the kingdom as terrorism.</p>
<p>At home Nayef urged his half-brother King Abdullah to respond to demands for change without compromising. But Abdullah took a more flexible line. For years he had been cautiously, incrementally, introducing limited reforms. Under his rule many more Saudi women had access to higher education and to at least a few mid-level government jobs. There were even hints from his court that someday Saudi women might be allowed to drive cars. He also appointed representative councils that had a voice in municipal affairs. And he appropriated over a hundred billion dollars in new spending to improve the conditions of the Saudi lower and middle classes.</p>
<p>But Abdullah’s reforms never challenged the fundamentals of the Saudi system. The Interior Ministry, now being run by MBN, cracked down mercilessly on dissenters, imprisoning anyone who advocated reform. MBN was savvy about terrorist threats to the kingdom, but less so about the dangers of refusing to allow its citizens to express themselves freely. Abdullah’s reforms gradually got reversed or stalemated. The reactionaries had again thwarted the reformer.</p>
<p>Nayef’s health failed him in 2012. When he died at 78 in June of that year in Geneva, there were quiet sighs of relief down the official corridors of Washington—and a spirit of optimism about working with his son MBN, who by then had already taken on the mantle of the Prince of Counterterrorism.</p>
<p>MBN has been at the forefront of innovative new tactics in fighting terrorism, especially in the effort to rehabilitate terrorists who were either captured by the police or defected from the terror apparatus because of disillusionment with the jihadist cause. The Ministry of the Interior today runs five special high security prisons with some 3,500 prisoners, almost all former al-Qaida operatives, where the goal is not incarceration but rehabilitation. The prisoners are showered with perks, can receive visits from their relatives and are even allowed to go to weddings and funerals with supervision; their families get special allowances from the government for better housing, medical care, and education. The objective is to make the former terrorists’ families take responsibility for their sons’ future. The theory is that if the family feels it has a stake in the rehabilitation of their wayward children, it will take on the job of convincing them of the error of their ways.</p>
<p>At one of Saudi Arabia&#8217;s high-security prisons for terrorists, the goal is not incarceration but rehabilitation—a controversial strategy promoted by MBN.</p>
<p>Reuters</p>
<p>The Interior Ministry acknowledges that 20 percent of the “graduates” of its rehabilitation prisons return to terrorism, but that’s a rate of recidivism considerably below that of prisons in the U.S. and Europe.</p>
<p>Still, the system MBN, now crown prince, has put in place has significant drawbacks. As the head of the feared Interior Ministry—he was made minister in 2012—MBN, like his father before him, is the public face of repression in the kingdom. Dissidents across the Gulf States accuse him of promoting a “Pax Saudiana” of repression, for the monarchy continues to treat all dissent in the kingdom as terrorism.</p>
<p>The extent of government repression of all forms of dissent has rightly raised new questions about the wisdom of close relations between the House of Saud and the U.S. and other Western democracies. The Economist has called for an end to business as usual with the kingdom and a more robust approach to encouraging transparency and accountability in Saudi politics. In an editorial just after Salman became King entitled “An Unholy Pact,” The Economist wrote that “the Wahhabism they [the Saudis] nurture endangers not just the outside world, but the dynasty itself” by encouraging extremism.</p>
<p>President Obama has been a strong supporter of the kingdom; it was the first place in the Middle East he visited as president. But he has said that while the Saudis face real external threats, including from Iran, it is the internal threat that is most serious. The kingdom’s population is “in some cases alienated, youth are underemployed, (with) an ideology that is destructive and nihilistic, and a belief that there are no legitimate political outlets for grievances.” The president has promised “tough conversations” with the leadership about liberalizing some of its policies.</p>
<p>King Salman has instead moved the kingdom even closer to the Wahhabi establishment. He fired the only female cabinet level minister shortly after coming to the throne; she had been an advocate of physical education for girls and a target for hardliners. Salman has met often with notoriously reactionary members of the clerical elite. He built close ties to them during the 50 years he was governor of Riyadh, a period when the city went from a population of about 200,000 to over 7 million, but retained its status as the most conservative city in Islam.</p>
<p>The late King Abdullah (right) and the Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Aziz Al-Asheikh. The Saudi royal family has always been close with the country&#8217;s Wahhabi establishment. Today, thanks to King Salman, that relationship is closer than ever.</p>
<p>Getty</p>
<p>Enter the Islamic State and Yemen</p>
<p>The kingdom’s Wahhabi Islam is the most fundamentalist Sunni branch of the religion. But it has now been outflanked by religious radicals who are even more intolerant, xenophobic, and far more violent. The blood-curdling appearance of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria in 2014 represents a new challenge to the world and, in particular, to MBN and his counterterrorism program. Heir to al-Qaida in Mesopotamia, which went deep underground during the American surge in Iraq in 2007 only to resurface after the withdrawal of foreign forces, the Islamic State has staged a multipronged comeback campaign. In 2012-13, it began targeting Iraqi prisons where al-Qaida terrorists were incarcerated and creating an infrastructure in neighboring Syria to assist in its revival. In the summer of 2014 it waged a blitzkrieg-like offensive across Sunni populated Iraq, took command of the country’s second city, Mosul, and declared the creation of a caliphate to rule all of Islam.</p>
<p>In November 2014 the Islamic State announced that its goal is to take control of the mosques in Mecca and Medina and oust the “serpent’s head”—the Saudi royal family. Its English language magazine published a cover story with a photo of the Kaaba with the Islamic State’s black flag flying over it. Islamic State militants have attacked Saudi security posts along the Iraqi border and sent suicide bombers to attack Shiite mosques inside the kingdom in order to fuel sectarian enmity. In response to the threat the Interior Ministry has arrested hundreds of Islamic State operatives and is constructing a 600 mile long security fence or wall along the Saudi-Iraqi border, similar to a 1,000 mile long wall it built along the Saudi-Yemeni border to defeat al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula.</p>
<p>The Islamic State announced that its goal is to take control of the mosques in Mecca and Medina and oust the Saudi royal family.</p>
<p>Abdullah died in January this year after almost 20 years of ruling the kingdom, first as crown prince filling in for an incapacitated King Fahd, then as king in his own right. Having outlived two crown princes, Sultan and Nayef, Abdullah had tried to prepare for an orderly succession. In July 2012 he made his half-brother Prince Muqrin the deputy prime minister, second in line to the throne after Crown Prince Salman, now king, also a half-brother. Muqrin was very close to Abdullah and his reforms.</p>
<p>Abdullah’s passing marks a major milestone in the kingdom’s history. A reformer by Saudi standards, he ruled longer than any of his brothers and through perilous times. His designated successor was Salman, 13 years younger. Once Salman ascended the throne, he made Muqrin crown prince, as was expected, and moved MBN up to second in line as deputy prime minister. It was assumed that Muqrin, who was born in 1945, the 35th son of Ibn Saud, would become king some day, and that MBN would then have some years to prepare for his own ascension, and to get the country ready for the generational transition from the sons of Ibn Saud to his grandsons.</p>
<p>A Saudi government-issued photo celebrating Operation Decisive Storm reflects the new order of royal succession: MBN (left), who’s next in line for the throne; King Salman (center); and the second-in-line, MBS. </p>
<p>Saudi government</p>
<p>Then came a stunning and unprecedented family reshuffle. At four o’clock in the morning on April 29, Salman sacked Muqrin and made MBN crown prince in his stead. Salman’s son Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) became the new number two. No explanation for the unprecedented ouster of a crown prince was given then or since. There is intense speculation that Salman made this change because MBN has no sons of his own (only two daughters), which means that MBS—who some sources say is not yet 30—will have a better chance of one day succeeding to the throne. Some speculate that MBN will sooner or later get the boot himself to ensure MBS makes it to the top.</p>
<p>MBS’s unbridled ambition has alienated many of his fellow princes. He has a reputation for arrogance and ruthlessness. He controls oil policy, but his complete lack of experience in the energy industry is all too evident. However, his principal vulnerability is his prominence, in his role as minister of defense, as the driving force and public advocate of Saudi policy toward its desperately poor, politically unstable neighbor on the peninsula: Yemen.</p>
<p>Yemen has always been a thorn in Saudi Arabia’s side. Ibn Saud went to war with Yemen in 1934. His armies captured much of the low-lying coastal plain along the Red Sea but could not conquer the mountainous interior of the country. A peace treaty ceded several border provinces to the kingdom, thus ensuring a long-standing irredentist movement in Yemen. In the 1960s the Saudis backed the Zaydi Shiite monarchs who traditionally ruled Yemen against an Egyptian backed republican movement that threatened to topple all the monarchies in the peninsula.</p>
<p>But in March of this year the Saudis launched air strikes against the Houthis, the Zaydi Shiite rebels who had deposed the pro-Saudi government in Sanaa last fall and taken control of much of the country. The Saudis were particularly alarmed by the Zaydi decision to open direct air flights to Tehran (a first), offer Iran use of Hudaydah port, and negotiate a cheap oil deal with Iran. Riyadh got support for its air war from all the other Arab states of the Gulf region except Oman. Jordan, Morocco, and Egypt have also joined Saudi Arabia in the war effort but Pakistan, a longtime Saudi ally, refused.</p>
<p>Backed by the U.S., Saudi Arabia&#8217;s coalition against Yemen comprises fellow Gulf nations as well as Egypt and Sudan.</p>
<p>The United States is providing intelligence and logistical help, despite getting only a few hours’ notice from Riyadh about the first strikes. The Saudis initially called the campaign Operation Decisive Storm, a deliberate echo of the United States’ pummeling of Saddam Hussein’s regime and the eviction of his forces from Kuwait in 1991. It is by far the most assertive foreign policy move in the kingdom’s recent history. Previous Saudi interventions in Yemen were clandestine, covert affairs. King Salman is projecting Saudi military might in an aggressive manner unprecedented since the days of his father Ibn Saud in the 1930s. The stakes are high.</p>
<p>So far the Yemeni adventure has not gone well, however. The war seems to be bogged down in a stalemate. Saudi Arabia and its allies control Yemen’s airspace and coastal waters and the southern port of Aden, but the Zaydi Houthis and their allies control most of northern Yemen.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Saudi blockade is creating a humanitarian catastrophe for the 25 million Yemenis, and the war has been a net gain for al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula. With the Saudis fighting the Houthis, much of eastern Yemen has become even more lawless than usual, allowing al-Qaida to take control of large parts of the Hadramawt province in the southeast, where bin Laden’s father and family had lived before emigrating to the kingdom in the 1930s.</p>
<p>The Yemen war, which is King Salman’s first major foreign test, has profound implications for the stability of Saudi Arabia, the Arabian Peninsula, and the region as a whole. The war has a Sunni-Shia sectarian dimension, and it’s also an arena of the broader Saudi-Iranian struggle for regional hegemony. Moreover, because the war is partly about Yemeni aspirations for a more inclusive government, it represents, in effect, the unfinished business of the Arab Spring, which the Saudis have resisted so vigorously.</p>
<p>RELATED CONTENT</p>
<p>For regional analysis, visit the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy.        </p>
<p>Explore the nexus of policy-making and intelligence at the Brookings Intelligence Project.</p>
<p>Read about Middle East politics and policy at Markaz, a blog by Brookings experts.</p>
<p>The Brookings project Rethinking Political Islam offers insight and analysis of mainstream movements and groups.</p>
<p>To find out how the Arab uprisings led to upheaval in key countries, read the Brookings report “The Middle East in Transition.” </p>
<p>The conflict is likely to draw in more players as it goes on and to spill out of Yemen to other countries. Already it has sparked violent clashes between MBN’s Interior Ministry forces and Shiite militants in the Saudis’ Eastern Province.</p>
<p>In short, Yemen could end up being a black mark on King Salman’s reign, and fatal to the ambitions of both MBN and MBS. Given how much he has identified himself with the war effort as minister of defense, MBS has the most to lose. So far he still has his father’s ear, and has represented him in visits to Russia and France. When King Salman abruptly canceled plans to meet President Obama at Camp David to show his pique at the president’s plan to secure a nuclear deal with Iran, he sent the two princes, MBN and MBS, in his stead. Obama pressed them on reform but backed their war. When King Salman finally did travel to Washington the talks were brief and the focus for the Saudi audience was more on MBS than his father.</p>
<p>MBN may be the most pro-American prince ever to be in line to the throne. He is probably the most successful intelligence officer in the Arab world of today. Panetta, like Tenet, praises him, calling MBN the “smartest and most accomplished of his generation.” Only King Fahd, another former minister of the interior, may have been so instinctively inclined to support American interests. Unlike his father, MBN seems altogether comfortable working closely with Americans. He seemed to get on fine with President Obama at Camp David. His agents just captured the mastermind of the 1996 Saudi Hezbollah attack on U.S. military barracks in Khobar, Saudi Arabia, that killed 19 American service members. MBN has already had more responsibility than any Saudi of his generation, and his burden is likely to become all the heavier given the chaos in the post-Arab Spring Middle East. He knows he needs allies.</p>
<p>But Washington should have no illusions that MBN will take Western advice to reform the kingdom. Saudi Arabia makes no bones about being the leading opponent of everything the Arab Spring stood for when it began in 2011 and everything that so many in the West were cheering for. The Saudis helped engineer the 2013 coup in Egypt that restored military rule to the largest Arab country and dealt the Arab Spring a fatal blow. They are skilled counterterrorists, but they are also accomplished and unabashed counterrevolutionaries.</p>
<p>Saudi Arabia is the world’s last significant absolute monarchy. It will not have a Gorbachev moment, because the royal family will not give up their control of the nation, nor will they loosen their ties with the Wahhabis and their faith. King Salman, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef, Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, and virtually all of the rest of the Saudi establishment believe they have survived more than two and a half centuries in the rough politics of the Middle East not just because of their ruthless determination to stay absolute monarchs, but because of their alliance with the Wahhabi clerics.</p>
<p>The House of Saud has outlasted the Ottomans, Nasserism, Communism, Baathism, and most other royal families. In 1979 many thought they would go the way of the Shah of Iran. As a young analyst at the CIA charged with the Saudi portfolio I predicted then that they would survive for many decades to come. It is too soon to write their epitaph, but I suspect it is too late to expect them to change.</p>
<p>Now read “The Believer,” a profile of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of the Islamic State (ISIS). In this essay, Brookings Fellow William McCants details how Baghdadi became radicalized, found his path to power, and declared himself the head of a reborn Islamic empire bent on world conquest.</p>
<p>Bruce Riedel is a senior fellow and director of the Brookings Intelligence Project, part of the Brookings Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence. In addition, Riedel serves as a senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy. He retired in 2006 after 30 years of service at the Central Intelligence Agency, including postings overseas. He was a senior advisor on South Asia and the Middle East to the last four presidents of the United States in the staff of the National Security Council at the White House. He was also deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Near East and South Asia at the Pentagon and a senior advisor at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Brussels.</p>
<p>Join the conversation on Twitter using #BrookingsEssay.</p>
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<p>This Essay is also available as an eBook from these online retailers: Amazon Kindle, Barnes &amp; Noble, Apple iTunes, Google Play, Ebooks.com, and on Kobo.</p>
<p>Like other products of the Institution, The Brookings Essay is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are solely those of the author.</p>
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		<title>لمؤمن</title>
		<link>http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/561849148/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[William McCants]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2015 15:22:44 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[وُلد إبراهيم عواد إبراهيم البدري في سنة 1971 في سامراء، وهي مدينة عراقية قديمة تقع على الحافة الشرقية من المثلث السُني شمالي بغداد. وكان نجلَ رجلٍ تقي يدرّس تلاوة القرآن الكريم في مسجدٍ محلي. أما إبراهيم نفسه، فقد كان منطوياً، قليل الكلام، وبالكاد يُسمع صوته عندما يتحدث. والجيران الذين عرفوه عندما كان مراهقاً يتذكرونه كشخصٍ&hellip;<div class="fbz_enclosure" style="clear:left"><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/thebeliever_promo_new_16x9-1.jpg?w=320" title="View image"><img border="0" style="max-width:100%" src="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/thebeliever_promo_new_16x9-1.jpg?w=320"/></a></div>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By William McCants</p><p>وُلد إبراهيم عواد إبراهيم البدري في سنة 1971 في سامراء، وهي مدينة عراقية قديمة تقع على الحافة الشرقية من المثلث السُني شمالي بغداد. وكان نجلَ رجلٍ تقي يدرّس تلاوة القرآن الكريم في مسجدٍ محلي. أما إبراهيم نفسه، فقد كان منطوياً، قليل الكلام، وبالكاد يُسمع صوته عندما يتحدث. والجيران الذين عرفوه عندما كان مراهقاً يتذكرونه كشخصٍ خجول لا يختلط بالآخرين. وحتى عندما كان الناس يصطدمون به خلال مباريات ودية في كرة القدم ، وهي رياضته المفضلة، كان يظلُّ محتفظاً بهدوئه ولا يبدو عليه أي انفعال. ولكن صوراً شخصية له من تلك السنوات تُظهر صفة أخرى مغايرة: حدةٌ صارمة في العينين الداكنتين تحت جبهةٍ سميكة مجعدة.</p>
<p>في وقتٍ مبكر، كانت كُنية إبراهيم هي &#8220;المؤمن&#8221;. وعندما لم يكن في المدرسة، كان يقضي معظم وقته في المسجد المحلي، منهمكاً في دراساته الدينية. وعندما يعود إلى بيته في نهاية اليوم، حسبما أفاد شامسي، أحد أشقائه، كان يُسارع الى وعظ أي شخصٍ يضلَّ الطريق ولا يتقيد بتعاليم الشريعة الإسلامية.</p>
<p>أصبح إبراهيم البدري الآن معروفاً للعالم باسم &#8220;أبو بكر البغدادي&#8221;، حاكم الدولة الإسلامية أو ما يُعرف بداعش، وأصبحت لديه القدرة ليس على وعظ أي شخصٍ داخل الأراضي الواقعة تحت سيطرته إنْ لم يكن إيمانه مطلقاً فحسب بل على معاقبته وحتى إعدامه. ويلقبه أتباعه بـ &#8220;أمير المؤمنين&#8221;، وهو لقبٌ مخصصٌ للخلفاء، وهم الحكام الروحيون والزمنيون الأعلى من أيام الإمبراطورية الإسلامية العظمى من العصور الوسطى. ورغم أن مملكته الخاصة أصغر من ذلك بكثير، فهو يحكم الملايين من الرعايا. وبعضهم موالون له بتعصب، أما كثيرون آخرون فينحنون له خوفاً من العواقب الدموية لتحديهم نسخته الوحشية عن الإسلام.</p>
<p>منذ صعود البغدادي المفاجئ في العام – 2014 عندما اتخذ دور ذلك الوحش الذي أمر بذبح وحتى حرق من يعتبرهم أعداءه وهم على قيد الحياة ثم بثَّ المشهد على موقع اليوتيوب – والمقالات الإخبارية والكتب تتبع مسيرة تطرفه وتنسبها إلى فترة الغزو الأمريكي للعراق في العام 2003. ورغم أن الغزو الأمريكي أشعل النار ومكنّها من الانتشار، غير أنَّ تطرف البغدادي قد بدأ، في الواقع، قبل ذلك بكثير. وأوقد هذا التطرف في نفسه الأصولية الدينية، وشمولية صدام حسين العلمانية، وحاجته للسيطرة على الآخرين.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>المرتِّل (قارئ القرآن)</p>
<p>كانت عائلة البغدادي، التي تنتمي إلى الطبقة المتوسطة الدنيا، معروفة بتقواها، وفخرها بنسبها والسلالة التي تنحدر منها. وقال جدوده، وهم من الطائفة السُنية، إنهم ينحدرون من سلالة النبي محمد عبر القادة الشيعة، الذين يرقدون في ضريح القبة الذهبية في سامراء. ويمثل نسب البغدادي حالة واحدة من الهويات الدينية المتعددة والمتداخلة في العراق، والتي تتناقض مع الشرخ المفترض القديم بين السُنة والشيعة. وقد قام تنظيم القاعدة بتفجير الضريح بعد سنوات إبان الغزو الأمريكي للعراق، في محاولةٍ لجعل هذا الانقسام واقعاً راسخاً.</p>
<p>كان ربُّ الأسرة، عواد، والد البغدادي، نشطاً في الحياة الدينية للمجتمع. وبدأ الأمر في المسجد، حيث كان والده يقوم بالتدريس، إذ حصل البغدادي في سن المراهقة على باكورة نشاطه كمدرّس، يقود أطفال الحي في ترديد تلاوة القرآن. وكانت هذه أول تجربةٍ له في مجال الخطابة والتعليم الديني. وحين كان يرتل القرآن، وهي مهنة تحظى بالمهابة في الإسلام، امتلئ صوته الهادئ بالحياة، فنطق الحروف في نبرات ثابتة يتردد صداها. وكان يكرس ساعاتٍ لا تُحصى من وقته لإتقان التفاصيل الدقيقة لفن التلاوة والترتيل.</p>
<p>ورغم تديّن عائلة البغدادي، فقد انضم بعض أعضائها إلى حزب البعث، وهو منظمة اشتراكية مكرسة لهدف الأمة العربية الواحدة. ومع أن القادة البعثيين كانوا متساهلين مع التعبد الديني الخاص، لا بل حتى يشجعونه أحياناً باعتباره متنفساً للحماسة الدينية، إلَّا أنهم كانوا حذرين من النشاط الديني باعتباره يُشكل تهديداً لحكمهم. وقد هيمنت الأفكار البعثية على الساحة السياسية العراقية وعلى أجهزة الدولة منذ أواخر الستينيات، مما دفع المواطنين الذين يريدون وظائف حكومية للانضمام إلى الحزب، بغض النظر عن قناعاتهم الشخصية.</p>
<p>خدم اثنان من أعمام البغدادي في أجهزة الأمن في عهد صدام، وأصبح أحد أشقائه ضابطاً في الجيش. كما خدم أخ آخر له في الجيش وقُتل خلال الحرب الضروس التي استمرت ثماني سنوات، عندما حارب العراق ضدَّ إيران في الثمانينيات، بدعمٍ ضمني من الولايات المتحدة. وربما كان البغدادي سينتهي إلى المصير ذاته لو استمرت الحرب لفترة أطول قليلاً، أو لو أن قِصَر البصر الذي يعاني منه لم يجعله غير مؤهلٍ لتأدية الخدمة العسكرية.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>الطالب</p>
<p>تمثل عائلة البغدادي، في نواحٍ كثيرة، تنوع التأثيرات والولاءات المتغيرة باستمرار، والتي كانت مطلوبة من أجل البقاء في عراق صدام حسين. إذ لم يكن لديهم علاقات مع حزب البعث فحسب، حتى لو كانت لأغراضٍ عملية، ولكن هناك أدلة على أن العديد من أفراد أسرة البغدادي، وربما حتى والده، كانوا من السلفيين &#8211; أتباع شكلٍ متزمتٍ ومتطرفٍ من الإسلام السُني يُمارس على نطاقٍ واسع في المملكة العربية السعودية وأنحاء كثيرة من الشرق الأوسط، بما في ذلك العراق، حيث توجد له جذورٌ عميقة. ويُذكر أن محمد بن عبد الوهاب، مؤسس السلفية السعودية، تلقى علومه الدينية في مدينة الموصل العراقية في القرن الثامن عشر، وأن أفراداً من المبشرين السلفيين نشروا معتقداتهم في جميع أنحاء العراق في القرن العشرين.</p>
<p>معظم السلفيين يحضّون الناس على طاعة الحكام المسلمين، حتى السيئين منهم، إلا أنّ صدام إعتبر السلفيين تهديداً لحكمه، لأنهم يدينون العلمانية ويرفضونها ويريدون من الدول أن تفرض الشريعة الإسلامية. وعندما بادر السلفيون في العراق إلى تنظيم أنفسهم في جمعياتٍ لمواصلة عملهم التبشيري في أواخر السبعينيات، وضعهم صدام في السجن بتهمة تشكيل منظماتٍ غير قانونية. ولكنه تراجع عن هذه الخطوة في الثمانينيات، خلال الحرب مع إيران الشيعية، لأنه كان بحاجةٍ إلى الحفاظ على الدعم من الأقلية السُنية في العراق، والتي تشمل السلفيين. ولكن في العام 1990، بعد عامين من انتهاء الحرب مع إيران، ضغط صدام على الآلاف من السلفيين للتوقيع على تعهدٍ بعدم التأثير على العراقيين الآخرين وحملهم على تبني قضيتهم.</p>
<p>وفي الوقت نفسه، سعى صدام إلى استرضاء رعاياه الورعين من خلال تأسيس جامعة في العام 1989 وإطلاق اسمه عليها، وهي جامعة صدام للدراسات الإسلامية. وكانت الجامعة مجرد واحدة من طرقٍ عديدة حاول فيها صدام استخدام الدين لتعزيز قبضته على المجتمع العراقي. كجزء من حملة الإيمان التي بدأت في العام 1993، حاول صدام استمالة المحافظين الدينيين عن طريق قيامه بإغلاق النوادي الليلية، ومنع الاستهلاك العلني للكحول، وفرض بعض العقوبات القاسية التي تنص عليها الشريعة الإسلامية، مثل قطع اليد أو القدم كعقوبة للسرقة. وفي العام 1994، قال في اجتماع لمجلس الوزراء إن تردده في وقتٍ سابق حول تطبيق العقوبات الإسلامية لم يكن مبرراً له. وأضاف قائلاً إن مثل هذه العقوبات يمكن أن تردع الجريمة بشكلٍ أفضل من تلك الأقل شدة. وما لم يُذكر هو حقيقة أنها كانت أيضاً مفيدة لجعل أتباعه يخضعون له مقدماً نفسه كمدافعٍ عن الإيمان.</p>
<p>وكجزءٍ من &#8220;حملة الإيمان&#8221; التي أطلقها، شجع صدام دراسة القرآن وترتيله، واعداً باستخدام أموال الدولة لتدريب 30,000 معلم للقرآن. حتى أنه تبرع بـ 28 لتراً من دمه، وذلك لاستخدامها كحبرٍ في إعداد نسخة من القرآن، ليكون مقرها في مسجد أم المعارك.</p>
<p>وربما كان لقيام صدام حسين بإنشاء وظائف جديدة لتدريس القرآن أثراً على المسار المهني الأكاديمي للبغدادي. وحيث لم يكن بوسعه دراسة القانون في جامعة بغداد، كما أراد، بسبب علاماته المتوسطة في المدرسة الثانوية &#8211; كان على حافة الرسوب في اللغة الإنجليزية &#8211; درس البغدادي القرآن هناك بدلاً من ذلك.</p>
<p>عندما تخرج البغدادي من جامعة بغداد في العام 1996، التحق بجامعة صدام للدراسات الإسلامية حديثة الإنشاء، حيث درس فيها لنيل شهادة الماجستير في تلاوة القرآن الكريم، وهو موضوعه المفضل. مما لا شكّ فيه أن معارف عائلته البعثية ساعدته على الدخول في برنامج الدراسات العليا، الذي يتطلب الالتحاق به درجة عالية من الانتقائية. وكانت رسالة الماجستير التي قدمها البغدادي بمثابة تعليقٍ وشرح على نصٍ مجهول وغامض من العصور الوسطى حول تلاوة القرآن الكريم. وكانت مهمته التوفيق بين إصدارات مختلفة من المخطوطة. وهذه مهمة مملة، فالعمل فيها لا يتطلب سوى القليل من الخيال، ولا مناقشة لمحتوى المشروع &#8211; وهو مشروع مثالي لشخصٍ متعنتٍ في أفكاره (دوغماتي). وحصل على درجة الماجستير في العام 1999، والتحق فوراً ببرنامج الدكتوراه في الدراسات القرآنية في جامعة صدام.</p>
<p>خلال فترة وجود البغدادي في كلية الدراسات العليا، أقنعه عمُّه، إسماعيل البدري، بالانضمام إلى جماعة الإخوان المسلمين، وهي حركة عالمية تسعى لإقامة دولٍ تحكمها الشريعة الإسلامية. وفي معظم البلدان تبنت جماعة الإخوان، التي فيها أعضاءٌ من الليبراليين والمحافظين، نهجاً حذراً تجاه التغيير السياسي، يقتصر على العمل من داخل النظام. وكثير من الأخوة في بغداد، بمن فيهم أولئك الذين التقى البغدادي بهم في البداية، كانوا من السلفيين المسالمين، ممن أرادوا من الدول أن تفرض الشريعة الإسلامية، إلا أنهم لم يدعوا إلى الثورة إذا ما فشلت الدول في القيام بذلك. غير أن البغدادي انجذب بسرعة نحو تلك القلة من السلفيين، الذين قادتهم عقيدتهم الصارمة للدعوة إلى إسقاط الحكام، الذين بنظرهم قد خانوا الإيمان. وأطلقوا على أنفسهم مسمى السلفيين الجهاديين. وكان شقيق البغدادي الأكبر سناً، جمعة، عضواً في هذه الحركة. وكذلك كان مرشده، محمد حردان، الذي كان عضواً لمرةٍ واحدة في جماعة الإخوان، وشارك في الحرب ضد السوفييت في أفغانستان في الثمانينات.</p>
<p>انكب البغدادي على مطالعة كتابات هؤلاء الإخوان المسلمين الذين اعتنقوا الجهادية. وتحت تأثير وصايتهم، نفد صبره من التيار السائد في جماعة الإخوان المسلمين التي اعتبر أن أعضاءها هم &#8220;أناس يُنظرون لكن لا يعملون&#8221;.</p>
<p>وبحلول العام 2000، كان البغدادي يتلهف شوقاً للدخول في قتال.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>نجم كرة القدم</p>
<p>إن معظم ما نعرفه عن البغدادي بين عامي 2000 و2004 يتعلق بحياته الشخصية، وحتى هذه المعلومات متناثرة وقليلة للغاية. ويبدو أنه كان متزوجاً من امرأتين وأنجب ستة أطفال. وزوجته الأولى، أسماء، هي ابنة خاله. وتزوج الثانية، إسراء، في وقتٍ لاحقٍ ربما بعد الغزو الأمريكي في العام 2003. وكغيره من المسلمين المحافظين، حجب البغدادي زوجتيه بعيداً عن أعين الناس، وهو نفسه كان منعزلاً ولم يختلط اجتماعياً كثيراً، مفضلاً قضاء الوقت مع عائلته في شقتهم الصغيرة بالقرب من مسجد الحاج زيدان في حي طوبجي المتواضع من بغداد. وهناك كان يُدرّس تلاوة القرآن الكريم لأطفال الحي ويرفع الآذان داعياً إلى الصلاة بصوته الرنان عبر مكبرات الصوت في المسجد.</p>
<p>كان المسجد أيضاً هو المكان الذي أتاح له أن ينغمس بممارسة هوايته الأخرى المفضلة &#8211; وهي لعبة كرة القدم. كان للمسجد نادٍ لكرة القدم، وكان البغدادي هو نجمه، ويُعرف باسم &#8220;ميسي فريقنا&#8221;، في إشارة إلى ليونيل ميسي، نجم كرة القدم الأرجنتيني الشهير. ويتذكر زملاؤه أنه في كثيرٍ من الأحيان كان يفقد أعصابه عندما يفشل في إحراز هدف.</p>
<p>كما كان يفقد أعصابه لدى رؤية ما كان يعتبره سلوكاً غير إسلامي. فوفقاً لأحد جيران البغدادي في ذلك الوقت، حسبما ورد في مقال نشرته صحيفة التلغراف العام الماضي على موقعها الإلكتروني، أصيب في أحد الأيام باستياءٍ شديد عندما شاهد مدعوين في حفل زفافٍ منخرطين في نشاطٍ أزعجه وأصابه بالصدمة. فرفع صوته عليهم مستغرباً: &#8220;كيف يمكن لرجالٍ ونساءٍ الرقص معاً هكذا؟&#8221;. وتدخَّل البغدادي لمنع المحتفلين من مواصلة الرقص.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>السجين</p>
<p>في وقتٍ متأخرٍ من العام 2003، بعد أن هزم الأمريكيون جيش صدام ثم حلّوه، ساهم البغدادي في تأسيس جيش أهل السُنة والجماعة، وهي جماعة متمردة قاتلت القوات الأمريكية وحلفاءها المحليين في شمال ووسط العراق.</p>
<p>وبعد فترةٍ وجيزة، في فبراير 2004، ألقي القبض على البغدادي في الفلوجة أثناء زيارة صديقٍ له كان اسمه على قائمة المطلوبين من قبل أمريكا. وتم نقله إلى مركز الاعتقال في معسكر بوكا، وهو مجمعٌ واسع جداً في جنوب العراق. وجرى تصنيفه في ملفات السجن بأنه &#8220;معتقل مدني&#8221;، مما يعني أن معتقليه لم يعرفوا أنه كان جهادياً.</p>
<p>وخلال الأشهر العشرة التي مكثها في الحبس، لم يكشف البغدادي النقاب عن تشدده، وكرَّس نفسه ووقته للتثقيف الديني. وفي هذا السياق، يقـول أحد زملائه من السجناء أجرت صحيفة ذا غارديان مقابلة معه من دون ذكر اسمه: &#8221; كان البغدادي شخصاً هادئاً يتمتع بكاريزما. ويمكن أن تشعر بأنه كان شخصاً ذا أهمية&#8221;. كما كان يؤم المصلين أثناء أداء الصلاة ويلقي خطب يوم الجمعة ويعطي دروساً دينية للسجناء الآخرين.</p>
<p>ومرة أخرى أدهش رفاقه في السجن – وساجنيه أيضاً دون شكّ – في ملعب كرة القدم. ومرة أخرى أيضاً جرت مقارنته بلاعبٍ أرجنتيني عظيم: فقد كانوا يسمونه &#8220;مارادونا &#8220;في معسكر بوكا.</p>
<p>لقد حرص البغدادي على التقرب من كل السجناء السُنة ومن الأمريكيين أيضاً، باحثاً عن فرصٍ للتفاوض مع سلطات المعسكر والتوسط بين جماعات متنافسة من السجناء.</p>
<p>ويذكر مصدر ذا غارديان أنه: &#8220;في كل مرةٍ وقعت مشكلة في المعسكر، كان البغدادي جزءاً مهماً منها. كان يريد أن يكون الرئيس في السجن. وعندما أنظر إلى الوراء الآن، أرى أنه كان يستخدم سياسة &#8220;فرّق تسد&#8221; للحصول على ما يريد، وقد نجحت سياسته وأفلح في مسعاه&#8221;.</p>
<p>كان العديد من السجناء في بوكا، الذين بلغ عددهم 24,000 معتقل، من العرب السُنة الذين خدموا في الجيش وأجهزة الاستخبارات في عهد صدام. وعندما سقط صدام، سقطوا بدورهم، نتيجة لقيام الأمريكيين بعملية استبعاد وتطهير البعثيين، والبروز الجديد لنفوذ الأغلبية الشيعية في العراق، التي تعرضت لاضطهادٍ على المدى الطويل. ولو لم يكن جميع المعتقلين جهاديين عند دخولهم السجن، فإن الكثيرين منهم أصبحوا كذلك عندما غادروه. لقد كانت المنشورات الجهادية المتطرفة تُوزع بحريةٍ تحت أعين الأمريكيين الساهرة ولكن الغافلة.</p>
<p>ويتذكر سجين آخر، ممن أجرى مراسل موقع &#8220;المونيتر&#8221; الإخباري مقابلاتٍ معهم: &#8220;مجندون جدد كان يتم إعدادهم في المعسكر، وما أن يُطلق سراحهم حتي يصبحوا قنابل زمنية موقوتة&#8221;. وكلما حضر سجين جديد، كان زملاؤه &#8220;يعلمونه، ويلقنونه، ويعطونه توجيهاتٍ، فيغادر المعسكر كأنه لهبٌ مشتعل&#8221;. و كان البغدادي الأخطر من بين تلك اللهب، فهو الرجل المسؤول عن معظم ألسنة النار التي التهمت المنطقة بعد أقل من عقدٍ من الزمان.</p>
<p>إن العديد من البعثيين السابقين في بوكا، وبعضهم صادقهم البغدادي، عادوا إلى الساحة معه من جديد من خلال صفوف الدولة الإسلامية. وأردف السجين الذي قابلته صحيفة ذا غارديان قائلاً: &#8220;لو لم يكن هناك السجن الأمريكي في العراق، لما ظهرت الدولة الإسلامية الآن&#8221;. وأضاف: &#8220;كان بوكا مصنعاً. لقد صنعنا جميعاً، وأسْهمَ في بناء أيديولوجيتنا&#8221;. وقد أطلق السجناء على المعسكر اسم &#8220;الأكاديمية&#8221;، وخلال الأشهر العشرة التي مكثها البغدادي فيه، عمل كعضوٍ في هيئة التدريس.</p>
<p>وبحلول الوقت الذي أفرج فيه عن البغدادي في 8 ديسمبر 2004، كان لديه جهاز رولودكس (Rolodex) افتراضي لإعادة الاتصال مع شركائه في المؤامرة وأتباعه ومريديه: لقد كتبوا أرقام هواتف بعضهم بعضاً على المطاط المرن لملابسهم الداخلية.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>المؤتمن</p>
<p>قبل شهرين فقط من إطلاق سراح البغدادي، أنشأ تنظيم القاعدة فرعاً لشبكته الإرهابية في العراق، وذلك من خلال استيعابه واحتوائه لميليشيا جهادية بقيادة أبو مصعب الزرقاوي، وتعيينه مسؤولاً عنها. ظن الزرقاوي، وهو مواطن أردني أراد أن يقيم دولة إسلامية، أن بوسعه استخدام تنظيم القاعدة في العراق لإثارة حرب أهلية طائفية بين الأقلية السُنية في العراق والأغلبية الشيعية، مما يُجبر أهل السُنة إلى اللجوء إلى جماعته من أجل الحماية. وعندما خرج تنظيم القاعدة في العراق منتصراً من حمام الدم هذا، لم تكن هناك أي حواجز فعلية، كما كان متوقعاً، أمام إنشاء الدولة الإسلامية التي كان يحلم بها. ووافق زعماء تنظيم القاعدة على مضضٍ على برنامج الزرقاوي الصارم لأنهم أرادوا أن تكون لهم يدٌ في التمرد الجديد ضد الأمريكيين. لكنهم سرعان ما شعروا بالأسف لتأييدهم هذا، عندما أدى العنف المروع الذي ارتكبته جماعة الزرقاوي والذي نُشر على الانترنت، إلى نفور جموع المسلمين، الذين طالما سعى تنظيم القاعدة لكسب تأييدهم للمضي قُدماً في حربه العالمية على أمريكا وحلفائها.</p>
<p>من المؤكد أن البغدادي قد التقى بجهاديين من دائرة الزرقاوي خلال الفترة التي قضاها في بوكا، وهو بلا شك قد انجذب إلى جماعة جهادية أكثر تطرفاً من مجموعته. وبعد إطلاق سراحه من بوكا، اتصل البغدادي هاتفياً بأحد الأقارب في تنظيم القاعدة، الذي بدوره أوصله بالمتحدث باسم الجماعة في العراق. وأقنع هذا المتحدث البغدادي بالذهاب إلى دمشق لتنفيذ مهام لتنظيم القاعدة، مؤكداً له أن بوسعه أيضاً الانتهاء من أطروحته لنيل الدكتوراه أثناء عمله معهم، علماً بأن علماء الدين الذين تلقوا تدريباً أكاديميا يُعتبرون ظاهرة نادرة في المنظمات الجهادية. لذلك كان يبدو منطقياً أن يُرسل باحث مبتدئ إلى سوريا، حيث لن يكون بوسع الأمريكيين الإمساك به. وما أن وصل البغدادي إلى هناك، سعى لتنفيذ المهمة الموكلة إليه، وهي ضمان تماهي دعاية تنظيم القاعدة في العراق على شبكة الإنترنت وانسجامها مع نسخة الإسلام المحافظة جداً التي يتبناها التنظيم. إن صلات البغدادي القبلية في العراق وعلاقاته مع الجماعات الجهادية الأخرى كانت مفيدة له، لأنه كان في عدة مناسبات قادراً على مساعدة الجهاديين الأجانب على عبور الحدود السورية إلى وطنه العراق. وفي ذلك الوقت، كان الرئيس السوري، بشار الأسد، يغض الطرف عن قوافل المقاتلين الأجانب الذاهبين الى العراق، وذلك من أجل معاقبة الولايات المتحدة على غزوها البلاد. ولم يكن يعلم أن تلك القوافل نفسها سوف تنطلق في يومٍ من الأيام في الاتجاه المعاكس، بعد أن ثار الشعب على حكمه في العام 2011.</p>
<p>وفي العام 2006، كان تنظيم القاعدة في العراق يُشكِّل منظمة شاملة تندرج تحت مظلتها الجماعات الجهادية المقاومة للاحتلال الأمريكي. وكانت الجماعة التي يقودها البغدادي من أول المنضمين لها. وبعد فترةٍ وجيزة، أعلن الزرقاوي عن نيته إقامة دولةٍ إسلامية، مخالفاً بذلك وبشكلٍ مباشر تعليمات تنظيم القاعدة له للانتظار إلى ما بعد انسحاب الأمريكيين ولحين يتمكن تنظيم القاعدة في العراق من كسب التأييد الشعبي لإقامة الدولة. وعندما قُتل الزرقاوي في غارةٍ جوية أمريكية في شهر يونيو، استمر خلفه، أبو أيوب المصري، وهو جهادي مصري، في تنفيذ الخطة. وأعلن عن تأسيس الدولة الإسلامية في شهر أكتوبر، وحلَّ تنظيم القاعدة في العراق، معلناً أن جنود التنظيم هم الآن جزءٌ من الدولة الإسلامية. وتولى المصري منصب وزير الحرب، رغم أنه كان هو من يدير المنظمة الجديدة فعلاً. أما الأمير الفخري للمجموعة، أبو عمر، وهو عراقي، فكان رئيساً صورياً في البداية ليس إلا.</p>
<p>ضمنياً، تعهّد القادة الجدد للدولة الإسلامية بالولاء لأسامة بن لادن وبايعوه، ولكنهم في العلن حافظوا على التظاهر أن الدولة الإسلامية مستقلة عن تنظيم القاعدة. وكانوا يأملون أن ينظر الآخرون إلى منظمتهم باعتبارها دولة مستقلة، أو حتى أنها تمثل بدايات استعادة الخلافة، وهي الإمبراطورية المترامية الأطراف من فترة صدر الإسلام. إن الغموض الذي كان يحيط بالعلاقة بينهما (تنظيم القاعدة والدولة الإسلامية) قد تطور لاحقاً إلى صراعٍ بين الجهتين.</p>
<p>ونظرأ لمؤهلاته العلمية، أُسندت للبغدادي مسؤولية الشؤون الدينية في الدولة الإسلامية في بعضٍ من &#8220;محافظاتها&#8221; العراقية. ولأن الجماعة لم تكن لها سيطرة في الواقع على أي أرض، فإن هذا يعني إلى حدٍ كبير أن البغدادي ظلَّ مسؤولاً عن ضمان أن دعاية الدولة الاسلامية تمثل وتعكس عقيدتها بدقة، وأن جنودها يلتزمون بالقيود وينفذون العقوبات القاسية التي تنص عليها الشريعة الإسلامية، أينما كانوا ومتى استطاعوا. فالمتهمون بالزنا الذين يتم القبض عليهم كانوا يُرجمون، وشاربو الكحول كانوا يُجلدون، واللصوص تُقطع أيديهم، &#8220;والمرتدون&#8221; يُعدمون.</p>
<p>أخذ البغدادي إجازة من مهامه الدينية، وظهر في العاصمة بغداد في 13 مارس 2007، لمناقشة أطروحته لنيل الدكتوراه. وكان الموضوع يتعلق بنسخة نقدية أخرى لكتاب من العصور الوسطى عن التجويد وتلاوة القرآن &#8211; يدور البحث فيها عن قصيدة حول كيفية تلاوة القرآن. ولم يتمكن مستشار البغدادي في تكريت من الحضور بسبب العنف المحتدم في العراق، فأرسل ملاحظاته على الأطروحة، مشيراً إلى بعض الأخطاء ومقترحاً بعض التعديلات. ولكنه عموماً كان راضياً عن عمل الطالب، وحصل البغدادي على درجة الدكتوراه في علوم القرآن بتقدير &#8220;جيد جداً&#8221;.</p>
<p>إن شهادات البغدادي العلمية الحديثة، وكذلك العمل الذي قام به في إدارة الشؤون الدينية للدولة الاسلامية، وضعته في دائرة اهتمام أبو أيوب المصري، الذي عيّنه مشرفاً على لجنة الشريعة. وبالتالي، فهو الذي يتولى فرض كل القيود الدينية في الدولة الإسلامية. كما رشحه المصري أيضاً لينضم إلى مجلس الشورى المكون من 11 عضواً. ويقدم هذا المجلس النصح للأمير أبي عمر ظاهرياً، ولكنه يعمل تحت سيطرة أبي أيوب المصري فعلياً، وهو الذي كان يحظى بدعمٍ من زملائه الجهاديين الأجانب. وعندما انضم البغدادي إلى المجلس، أخذ الأعضاء العراقيون بالتململ والتفوا حول ابن موطنهم أبا عمر تأييداً له، آملين في الحصول على دورٍ أكبر في عملية صنع القرار.</p>
<p>ومثلما عمل في معسكر بوكا، سرعان ما وجد البغدادي دوراً يلعبه في التوفيق بين الجانبين. ورغم أنه كان من أتباع المصري، تمكن البغدادي أيضاً من كسب ما يكفي من ثقة أبي عمر ليُعين في لجنة التنسيق في الدولة الإسلامية، وهي لجنة تتكون من ثلاثة رجال وتتمتع بنفوذٍ كبير، ومن مهامها اختيار قادة المحافظات العراقية في الدولة الإسلامية والإشراف عليهم وفصلهم من العمل. كما كان البغدادي يتولى، نيابة عن أبي عمر، صياغة الرسائل الموجهة إلى أسامة بن لادن، رئيسه في تنظيم القاعدة. وكان يقوم بتنسيق الاتصالات بين كبار قادة الدولة الإسلامية وممثليهم في المحافظات، والكثير من هذه الاتصالات كانت تجري من خلال السعاة.</p>
<p>في أوائل العام 2010، قبض العراقيون على واحدٍ من هؤلاء السعاة، وهو رجلٌ كان ينقل الرسائل بين أبو عمر وأحد قادة الدولة الإسلامية في بغداد، وهو مناف الراوي. وطبقاً لرواية أحد المطلعين، تلقى البغدادي تحذيراً من جاسوسٍ مزروع في خدمة الأمن العراقية مفاده أن الراوي في خطر، ولكن البغدادي أخفق في تمرير هذا التحذير. وربما شعر البغدادي بالقلق وآثر إنقاذ نفسه أكثر من حماية رؤسائه &#8211; فالتواصل معهم بعد القبض على الساعي يمكن أن يعرضه للخطر. ومهما كان الحال، فقد أرشد الساعي المقبوض عليه السلطات العراقية إلى مناف الراوي، الذي بدوره أعطى لسجانيه، تحت الاستجواب، معلوماتٍ مكنت قوة أمريكية عراقية مشتركة في أبريل 2010 من تطويق بيت الطين خارج تكريت، حيث كان أبو عمر وأبو أيوب المصري يختبئان. فقام الإثنان بتفجير نفسيهما بدلاً من الاستسلام.</p>
<p>وبوفاة هذين القائدين، واجهت الدولة الإسلامية أولى حالات الخلافة. ولم يتمكن المجلس الاستشاري من عقد خلوة لاختيار أمير جديد، ربما لأن ذلك كان سينتهي بغارةٍ أخرى تقودها الولايات المتحدة وانتحارٍ جماعي آخر. فأصدر بن لادن، الذي كان لا يزال يحظى ببيعة الدولة الإسلامية، تعليماتٍ إلى مجلس الشورى لتعيين زعيمٍ مؤقت وتزويده بقائمةٍ تتضمن أسماء المرشحين لتولي منصب الأمير وتحديد مؤهلات كل واحدٍ منهم.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>الأمير</p>
<p>عقب وفاة قائدَيْ الدولة الإسلامية، وجد حجي بكر، وهو رئيس المجلس العسكري للدولة الإسلامية، نفسه فجأة في وضعٍ يمكنه من التحكم بعملية الخلافة. وسبق أن خدم حجي بكر كضابطٍ في جيش صدام، ثم قضى وقتاً في معسكر بوكا بعد الإفراج عن البغدادي، ولكن يُؤخذ عليه أنه خدم في نظام غير إسلامي، وبالتالي فلا فرصة أمامه للمنافسة على منصب القيادة العليا بنفسه. فاتخذ وضعاً يمكنه من أن يكون له التأثير الأول على اختيار الخليفة وأن يكون السلطة الفعلية وراء العرش. ولذلك تجاهل حجي بكر تعليمات بن لادن، ومن خلال استطلاعٍ أعده وقف على رأي 11 عضواً في المجلس الاستشاري حول تفضيلاتهم لاختيار الأمير. ولكن ورد أنه تلاعب بالنتائج من خلال كتابة رسالةٍ خاصة إلى كل واحدٍ منهم يقول له فيها إن الآخرين جميعهم يفضلون البغدادي. وربما ظنَّ هذا العقيد الحذر أن الشاب البغدادي سيكون أكثر مرونة بين يديه من المتنافسين الآخرين، أو أنه سيكون أقل ولاءً لأسياد الدولة الإسلامية البعيدين في تنظيم القاعدة، الذين كانوا دوماً يعترضون على شدة صرامة التمرد الذي تمثله الدولة الإسلامية. ودعماً لاختيار البغدادي، تغنّى حجي بكر بانحدار البغدادي من سلالة النبي، وإتقانه للقرآن، وأشاد بالخبرة الإدارية التي اكتسبها أثناء وجوده في التنظيم.</p>
<p>انتخب المجلس الأمير الجديد للدولة الإسلامية بأغلبية 9 إلى 2. وعندها، اتخذ أبو بكر البغدادي، 39 سنة، هذا الاسم الحركي الذي اشتهر به لاحقاً، تيمناً بإيمانه ومسقط رأسه. فأبو بكر كان حمو النبي محمد، وأصبح أول خليفة في الإسلام بعد وفاة النبي. أما بغداد فكانت عاصمة أعظم خلافة في صدر الإسلام، وهي الخلافة العباسية. والعباسيون وصلوا إلى السلطة في القرن الثامن الميلادي باستخدام دعاية ذكية مروعة وشبكات سرية لحشد الغضب الشعبي ضد النظام الحاكم في دمشق. ومن الواضح أن البغدادي كان يأمل في تكرار هذه الأحداث على الساحة نفسها.</p>
<p>وبمباركة الأمير الجديد وامتنانه، شرع حجي بكر بتطهير صفوف الدولة الإسلامية من أي شخصٍ قادرٍ على تحدي سلطة البغدادي. وقد وصفه أفرادٌ من داخل الدولة الإسلامية بأنه &#8220;أمير الظل&#8221; و&#8221;الوزير الخاص&#8221; للأمير. وقام حجي بتسوية الحسابات، فاستبعد عشرات المنافسين وقضى عليهم، إما من خلال الترهيب أو الاغتيال، تماماً كما فعل صدام سابقاً.</p>
<p>انتقلت السلطة الآن من المقاتلين الأجانب إلى الأعضاء العراقيين في الدولة الإسلامية. وكلّما قتلت القوات الأمريكية والعراقية أو اعتقلت القادة الذين عيّنهم الأمير السابق، كان البدلاء في كثيرٍ من الأحيان، مثل البغدادي وحجي بكر، سجناء سابقين من معسكر بوكا. والكثير منهم، مثل حجي بكر، كانوا أيضاً من الضباط السابقين في الأجهزة العسكرية أو المخابرات في عهد صدام. ورجالٌ من هذا القبيل سيكونون مفيدين في إدارة دولةٍ استبدادية جديدة.</p>
<p>وبعد أن ضمن الخلافة، شرع البغدادي وصاحب النفوذ الفعلي بإحياء الحظوظ الواهنة للدولة الاسلامية. فالنكسات العسكرية أجبرت التنظيم على الاختباء في العام 2008، وجاءت الهجمات اللاحقة، كتلك التي تعرّض لها أبو عمر وأبو أيوب المصري، لتصيب هيكل القيادة في الصميم. وكان البغدادي وحجي بكر عازمين على نقل المعارك إلى العلن مرة أخرى والاستيلاء على الأراضي اللازمة لإقامة الخلافة. وجاءت الاضطرابات المتزايدة في سوريا في العام 2011 لتساعدهما مباشرة في هذا المسعى، وقدّمت لهما الفرصة لحقن العنف في التمرّد الذي كان سلمياً. فأرسل البغدادي أحد النشطاء السوريين العاملين معه لاقامة فرعٍ سري للدولة الإسلامية في سوريا في ذلك العام. وفي البداية، اتّبع هذا الفرع، الذي أصبح يُعرف لاحقاً باسم جبهة النصرة، قواعد اللعبة التي تمارسها الدولة الإسلامية من خلال مهاجمة المدنيين، كجزءٍ من حملة إرهابية سرية لزرع الفوضى. وكان الأمل أن الدولة الإسلامية ستكون قادرة على الاستفادة من تلك الفوضى من أجل تنفيذ خطتها بالاستيلاء على أرضٍ لأول مرة.</p>
<p>استغل الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد هذه الهجمات على المدنيين وضمها إلى تصرفات أولئك الذين كانوا يحتجون ضدَّ نظامه، مدعياً بأن المتظاهرين المسالمين ليسوا سوى إرهابيين. ولكن بعد أن تحوّلت جبهة النصرة إلى منظمة للمتمردين، أصبحت أكثر حذراً في ما يتعلق بقتل المدنيين السُنة وأكثر تصميماً على العمل مع غيرها من فصائل المتمردين السُنة للإطاحة بالأسد. وعكَسَ هذا التحول أيضاً التوجيه الذي تلقته النصرة من أمير تنظيم القاعدة الجديد، أيمن الظواهري، الذي حلَّ محل بن لادن بعد مقتله على أيدي قوات البحرية الأمريكية في مايو 2011. وكان الظواهري يعتقد أن من الحكمة بناء التأييد الشعبي وحشده قبل محاولة إنشاء دولة إسلامية، لذا ناشد جبهة النصرة وحثها على التعاون مع المتمردين الآخرين.</p>
<p>اختلف البغدادي مع الظواهري، الذي كان قد بايعه على الولاء ضمناً. ووفقا لرؤية البغدادي للأمور، كانت آنذاك دولة إسلامية قائمة بالفعل. ولا تحتاج لتكون حقيقية إلّا لشنّ حملة غزو ميداني في سوريا. ولكن تعاون جبهة النصرة مع المتمردين السُنة الآخرين هو ما كان يُحبط تلك الخطة.</p>
<p>وفي ربيع العام 2013، أمر البغدادي مرؤوسيه في جبهة النصرة الامتثال لاستراتيجيته، ولكنهم رفضوا هذا الأمر. فاستشاط البغدادي غضباً وأعلن على الملأ بأن جبهة النصرة جزءاً من الدولة الإسلامية، وأعاد تسميتها باسم الدولة الإسلامية في العراق وسوريا. فردَّ عليه زعيم جبهة النصرة معلناً التبرؤ من سلطة البغدادي ومبايعة الظواهري بالتبعية والولاء. وقبل الظواهري بيعة زعيم جبهة النصرة وأمر البغدادي أن يهتم بالعراق فقط، فرفض البغدادي الامتثال لهذا الأمر، فهو يريد السيطرة على سوريا أيضاً. وتحت قيادته شرعت الدولة الإسلامية بالتهام الأراضي في شرق سوريا، وطردت منها الجماعات السُنية المتمردة، بما فيها جبهة النصرة. فلم يكن أمام الظواهري من خيارٍ سوى طرد الدولة الإسلامية من تنظيم القاعدة، وهو ما فعله في فبراير 2014. وفي الخلاف اللاحق الذي نشب بين جبهة النصرة والدولة الإسلامية، انتصرت هذه الأخيرة. وتمكنت الدولة من تدعيم سيطرتها على شرق سوريا واستقطبت الجزء الأكبر من الوحدات المقاتلة الأجنبية في جبهة النصرة، التي كان أعضاؤها أكثر اهتماماً بإقامة دولةٍ خاصة بهم من محاولة إسقاط نظام الأسد.</p>
<p>بعد فترةٍ وجيزة، بدأت التقارير ترد حول كيفية قيام الدولة الإسلامية بتسيير أمور الحكم في أراضيها الجديدة. وكان البغدادي في السابق قادراً على تطبيق العقوبات الإسلامية فقط على أولئك الذين وقعوا لسوء حظهم في قبضة مجموعة متمردي الدولة الإسلامية، لأن التنظيم لم يكن مسيطراً على أية أراضٍ آنذاك. ولكن البغدادي أصبح الآن على رأس حكومة تبسط سيطرتها على جزءٍ كبيرٍ من شرق سوريا، ويمكنه أن يفرض إرادته على مئات الآلاف من الناس، لا سيما أولئك الموجودين في معقل الدولة الإسلامية في الرقة. وأمر البغدادي المسيحيين بدفع الجزية أو مواجهة الموت. والأشخاص المتهمون بالسرقة كانت تُقطع أيديهم. والمتهمون بارتكاب الزنا يُجلدون أو يُرجمون حتى الموت. ورغم أن هذه العقوبات منصوصٌ عليها في القرآن، فمعظم الدول الإسلامية قد تخلت عنها لأنها قديمة ولا تناسب العصر. وحتى قادة تنظيم القاعدة نصحوا الجهات التابعة لهم بالتساهل في تطبيق العقوبات. ولكن البغدادي ينظر إلى فرض القوانين الدينية القاسية كوسيلةٍ لإضفاء الشرعية على دولته بأنها &#8220;إسلامية&#8221;، عازماً على ترويع السكان المحليين وإخضاعهم. ومثل صدام، فهو يدرك الفائدة السياسية للتشدد الصارم باسم الدين.</p>
<p>في السياق ذاته، وصف البغدادي المسلمين الذين قاوموا حكمه بالمرتدين. وجرى إعدام رجال القبائل السُنية المناوئين له بعنادٍ شديد وجنود الحكومة المقبوض عليهم إعداماً جماعياً، وألقيت جثثهم في مقابر مجهولة، وهو تحذيرٌ لردع أي شخص يتحداه.</p>
<p>وعندما شعر أن حكمه في شرق سوريا آمن، وضع البغدادي نصب عينيه الاستيلاء على الأراضي المجاورة في غرب العراق.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>الخليفة</p>
<p>منذ أوائل العام 2014، كانت الدولة الإسلامية قد حققت مكاسب في غرب العراق بصورةٍ مطّردة. فالسُنة الذين يسكنون هناك كانوا غاضبين من الحكومة التي يُهيمن عليها الشيعة في بغداد، وذلك لإغلاق الباب في وجههم واستبعادهم من الجيش وإخراجهم من أروقة السلطة بعد رحيل الأمريكيين. وعندما بدأت القبائل السُنية في غرب العراق تقاتل ضد الحكومة في أواخر العام 2013، أمر البغدادي جنوده بالانضمام إلى المعركة. وهكذا انخرط المتعصبون الدينيون ورجال القبائل والعلمانيون البعثيون في القتال جنباً إلى جنب في قضيةٍ مشتركة للتخلص من الحكم الشيعي. وفي فصليْ الشتاء والربيع من العام 2014، حققت الدولة الإسلامية نجاحاتٍ في الفلوجة والرمادي من خلال العمل مع حلفائها. وجمع مقاتلوها رجال الشرطة والجنود الذين قاوموا تقدمهم وصوروا عمليات الإعدام المروعة التي نُفذت بحقهم. وانتشرت هذه الفيديوهات بسرعةٍ بين الأجهزة العسكرية والأمنية في العراق.</p>
<p>وفي يونيو 2014، شنَّت الدولة الإسلامية وحلفاؤها هجوماً خاطفاً على الموصل، ثاني أكبر مدينةٍ في العراق. واستولوا على المدينة بالقليل من الجهد، إذ كان عناصر قواتها الحامية والشرطة المحلية محبطين ومرعوبين من أشرطة الفيديو، إلى حد جعلهم عاجزين عن الصمود والقتال.</p>
<p>وبهذا النصر المؤزر، تكون قد بسطت الدولة الإسلامية هيمنتها على المنطقة الممتدة بين شرق سوريا وغرب العراق. وفي وقتٍ لاحق من ذلك الشهر، أعلن المتحدث باسم الدولة الإسلامية عن عودة مملكة الله على الأرض، وهي الخلافة، وعاد البغدادي إلى اسمه الأول، مسبوقاً الآن باللقب الأعلى في الدولة: الخليفة إبراهيم. ولتبرير هذا الادعاء الكبير، قام أنصاره بتعميم تسلسل الأنساب في قبيلته، التي تصل في نسبها إلى أحفاد النبي محمد. واعتبر هذا شرطاً ومؤهلاً هاماً، فبعض النبوءات الإسلامية عن فترة نهاية الزمان تقول إن رجلاً ينحدر من سلالة النبي سيحكم في يوم من الأيام كخليفة &#8211; وهو منصبٌ اختفى من الوجود منذ سقوط الإمبراطورية العثمانية بعد الحرب العالمية الأولى.</p>
<p>بعد عدة أيام، صعد ما يسمى الخليفة إلى المنبر في الموصل لإلقاء خطبة الجمعة، وكان ذلك الظهور العلني الأول والوحيد له منذ توليه رئاسة الدولة الإسلامية في العام 2010. وارتدى البغدادي الجلباب الأسود، لاستحضار ذكرى الخلفاء العباسيين الذين كانوا يحكمون من بغداد والذين جاءوا إلى السلطة أيضاً من خلال الزعم بالانتساب لأهل البيت، واعدين الناس بالعودة إلى الإسلام الأصيل.</p>
<p>وأعلن البغدادي خلافته قائلاً: &#8220;ولّيت عليكم ولستُ بخيركم ولا أفضل منكم&#8221;، ثم أضاف: &#8221; أطيعوني ما أطعت الله فيكم، فإن عصيته فلا طاعة لي عليكم&#8221;. وكانت هذه العبارة مقتبسة من خطبة الخليفة أبي بكر الصديق عند تنصيبه أول خليفة على المسلمين من قبل أصحاب النبي محمد.</p>
<p>إن الإستيلاء على الموصل أقنع الحكومة الأمريكية، المترددة حتى الآن، بأنها مضطرة لاتخاذ إجراءٍ ما. وبعد فترةٍ وجيزة، بدأت الطائرات الأمريكية بإلقاء قنابلها على مواقع الدولة الإسلامية. وكردٍ انتقامي على ذلك، قامت الدولة الإسلامية بقطع رؤوس الأسرى الغربيين لديها. وسيق الأسرى إلى موقع تنفيذ الإعدام وهم يرتدون ملابس برتقالية اللون، كتلك التي كان يرتديها كثيرٌ من العراقيين في السجون الأمريكية خلال العقد الماضي، وهو شكلٌ قاتم من الانتقام المتلفز أطلقه أبو مصعب الزرقاوي، الأردني الذي أسَّس تنظيم القاعدة في العراق، بعد المشاهد التي كشفت ماذا يجري في سجن أبي غريب. وكان البغدادي قد أقدم مرات عدة على اغتصاب رهينة أمريكية أخرى، كايلا مولر، وهي موظفة إغاثة، في منزل أحد الأتباع. وعلى غرار ما فعله لتبرير قطع الرؤوس، اعتمد البغدادي على أسس دينية لتبرير العبودية الجنسية.</p>
<p>ومنذ خطبة البغدادي، ذكرت وسائل الإعلام مرتين أنه قُتل أو أصيب بجروحٍ خطيرة بالضربات الجوية، أول مرة في نوفمبر 2014، ومرة أخرى في مارس 2015. ولكن في مايو 2015، عاد زعيم الدولة الإسلامية المتحفّظ إلى الظهور ثانية بإصدار بيانٍ على الإنترنت قدَّم فيه إلى الجيوش من أتباعه التوجيهات والإثبات أنه على قيد الحياة.</p>
<p>ومع ذلك، تثير هذه الإصابات الوشيكة الأسئلة عما سيحدث لو قُتل البغدادي وهو في منصبه؟ ويعتمد الجواب على ما يصنع المرء بحياته. فبالنسبة للبعض، البغدادي مجرد وجه رمزي لا يساوي شيئاً، ويتلاعب به ويستغله غير المتدينين من البعثيين السابقين أو البلطجية الذين يستخدمون الدولة الإسلامية للوصول إلى السلطة. أو أنه مكوّن في منظومة أو تعبير عن مؤسسة لا شخصية لها أو قوى تاريخية. وهذه الآراء تُجمِع على الأقل على أن البغدادي ليس سيد نفسه. فأخطاؤه هي أخطاء الآخرين، ربما صدام حسين، أو جورج بوش الأب، وربما زُمرة من الموالين للنظام السابق. وإذا ما اختفى البغدادي، من المتوقع أن يخلفه قائد صوَري لا قرار فعلي له.</p>
<p>لكن الحقائق المجردة في سيرة البغدادي تكشف عن رجلٍ ذي إمكانيات غير عادية. فقد ساعد البغدادي في تأسيس جماعة من المتمردين، وحصل على شهادة الدكتوراه حين كان يتولى إدارة الشؤون الدينية للدولة الإسلامية، واستطاع أن يظل صامداً وسط سياسات الدولة الإسلامية الدموية، بسبب مهارته في بناء التحالفات وقدرته على ردع منافسيه وترهيبهم. وجاء توطيد المكاسب الإقليمية للدولة الإسلامية في سوريا وتوسعها السريع في العراق بعد وفاة &#8220;أمير الظل&#8221; الذي كان معه. ورغم أن صحيفة نيويورك تايمز ذكرت مؤخراً أنه يقوم بنفسه بالترتيبات اللازمة للخلافة في حال وفاته من خلال تفويض العديد من صلاحياته العسكرية لمرؤوسيه، إلا أنّ معرفته الدينية ومكره السياسي لن يتم استبدالهما بسهولة. فلا يوجد بين خلفائه المحتملين شخصٌ يجمع بين النسب النبوي، والمعرفة الدينية، والمهارة لكسب أصدقاء أقوياء والتمكن من تهدئة المعارضة.</p>
<p>وطوال حياته، اختار البغدادي طريق التطرف الديني. وبأمثلة صغيرة، كاعتراضه على الرقص في حفل زفاف، أو كبيرة، كالإعدامات الجماعية، كان البغدادي دائماً يحاول فرض آرائه على الآخرين. وكان من الممكن أن يكون أستاذاً جامعياً، يقنع العقول الشابة بالحجة والمنطق. ولكن المؤمن أصبح أمير المؤمنين، ساعياً إلى فرض رؤيته الدينية القاتمة والمتوحشة على العالم بأسره. فقد أعلن في السنة الماضية أن &#8220;مسيرة المجاهدين سوف تستمر حتى تصل إلى روما&#8221;. وإذا كانت حياة البغدادي تحذّرنا من شيء، فهي تحذّرنا من خطر خلق الفوضى التي تسمح لأمثاله بالازدهار.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>ويليام مكانتس هو زميل في مركز سياسات الشرق الأوسط في معهد بروكنجز ومدير مشروع العلاقات الأمريكية مع العالم الإسلامي التابع لمعهد بروكنجز وهو أيضاً عضو هيئة تدريس مساعد في جامعة جونز هوبكنز، وشغل سابقاً منصب مستشار أول في وزارة الخارجية لمكافحة التطرف العنيف. ومكانتس هو مؤلف كتاب: </p>
<p>&#8220;Founding Gods, Inventing Nations: Conquest and Culture Myths from Antiquity to Islam&#8221;</p>
<p>، (مطبعة جامعة برينستون)، وكتاب: </p>
<p>&#8220;The ISIS Apocalypse: The History, Strategy, and Doomsday Vision of the Islamic State&#8221;</p>
<p>، (مطبعة سانت مارتن).</p>
<p>يمكنكم قراءة مقال بروكنجز الجديد عن ولي العهد السعودي، بعنوان أمير مكافحة الارهاب، للمؤلف بروس ريدل، وهو زميل أول في معهد بروكنجز، وضابط سابق في وكالة الاستخبارات الأمريكية ومسؤول رفيع المستوى سابق في الإدارة الأمريكية.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>للمزيد من المقالات والدراسات المتعلقة بالشرق الأوسط، تابعوا صفحة مركز بروكنجز الدوحة على موقع الفيسبوك.</p>
<p>على غرار المنشورات الأخرى الصادرة عن معهد بروكنجز، فإن الهدف من مقال بروكنجز هو المساهمة في إثراء النقاش وتحفيز الحوار حول القضايا الهامة، علماً بأن الآراء الواردة فيه تعبر عن رأي المؤلف فقط.</p>
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		<title>The believer: How Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi became leader of the Islamic State</title>
		<link>http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/172199204/0/brookingsrss/series/thebrookingsessay/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[William McCants]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2015 15:12:56 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.brookings.edu/?post_type=essay&#038;p=115029</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim al-Badri was born in 1971 in Samarra, an ancient Iraqi city on the eastern edge of the Sunni Triangle north of Baghdad. The son of a pious man who taught Quranic recitation in a local mosque, Ibrahim himself was withdrawn, taciturn, and, when he spoke, barely audible. Neighbors who knew him as&hellip;<div class="fbz_enclosure" style="clear:left"><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/thebeliever_promo_new_16x9.jpg?w=320" title="View image"><img border="0" style="max-width:100%" src="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/thebeliever_promo_new_16x9.jpg?w=320"/></a></div>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By William McCants</p><p>Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim al-Badri was born in 1971 in Samarra, an ancient Iraqi city on the eastern edge of the Sunni Triangle north of Baghdad. The son of a pious man who taught Quranic recitation in a local mosque, Ibrahim himself was withdrawn, taciturn, and, when he spoke, barely audible. Neighbors who knew him as a teenager remember him as shy and retiring. Even when people crashed into him during friendly soccer matches, his favorite sport, he remained stoic. But photos of him from those years capture another quality: a glowering intensity in the dark eyes beneath his thick, furrowed brow.</p>
<p>key players</p>
<p>1/8 Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi</p>
<p>Born: Iraq / Role: Leader of the Islamic State / Status: Wanted</p>
<p>2/8 Osama bin Laden</p>
<p>Born: Saudi Arabia / Role: Founder of al-Qaida / Status: Deceased</p>
<p>3/8 Abu Musab al-Zarqawi</p>
<p>Born: Jordan / Role: Founder and leader of al-Qaida in Iraq (2004&ndash;2006) / Status: Deceased</p>
<p>4/8 Abu Ayyub al-Masri</p>
<p>Born: Egypt / Role: Founder and minister of war for Islamic State (2006&ndash;2010) / Status: Deceased</p>
<p>5/8 Manaf al-Rawi</p>
<p>Born: Iraq / Role: Former Islamic State commander in Baghdad / Status: Deceased</p>
<p>6/8 Hajji Bakr</p>
<p>Born: Iraq / Role: Former head of Islamic State’s military council (2010&ndash;2014) / Status: Deceased</p>
<p>7/8 Ayman al-Zawahiri</p>
<p>Born: Egypt / Role: Current leader of al-Qaida / Status: Wanted</p>
<p>8/8 Saddam Hussein</p>
<p>Born: Iraq/ Role: President of Iraq (1979&ndash;2003) / Status: Deceased</p>
<p>Early on, Ibrahim&rsquo;s nickname was &ldquo;The Believer.&rdquo; When he wasn&rsquo;t in school, he spent much of his time at the local mosque, immersed in his religious studies; and when he came home at the end of the day, according to one of his brothers, Shamsi, he was quick to admonish anyone who strayed from the strictures of Islamic law.</p>
<p>Now Ibrahim al-Badri is known to the world as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the ruler of the Islamic State or ISIS, and he has the power not just to admonish but to punish and even execute anyone within his territories whose faith is not absolute. His followers call him &ldquo;Commander of the Believers,&rdquo; a title reserved for caliphs, the supreme spiritual and temporal rulers of the vast Muslim empire of the Middle Ages. Though his own realm is much smaller, he rules millions of subjects. Some are fanatically loyal to him; many others cower in fear of the bloody consequences for defying his brutal version of Islam.</p>
<p>Since Baghdadi&rsquo;s sudden emergence from obscurity in 2014 as the monster who ordered and broadcast on YouTube the beheading and even burning alive of those he deemed his enemies, news articles and books have traced his radicalization back to the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Although the American invasion fed the fire and enabled it to spread, in fact, his radicalization began much earlier, ignited by an unlikely but highly volatile mixture of fundamentalism, Saddam Hussein&rsquo;s secular totalitarianism, and his own need to control others. </p>
<p>Baghdadi as a young man. Northern German Broadcasting</p>
<p>The Reciter</p>
<p>Baghdadi&rsquo;s lower middle-class family was known for its piety but also for its proud lineage. His Sunni forefathers claimed to descend from the Prophet Muhammad through the Shiite leaders buried in Samarra&rsquo;s golden-domed shrine. Baghdadi&rsquo;s lineage is one instance of the many overlapping religious identities in Iraq that belie the supposedly eternal divide between Sunnis and Shiites. Al-Qaida would bomb the shrine years later after the American invasion in an effort to make that divide a reality.</p>
<p>The golden-domed al-Askari Shrine in Samarra, Iraq, is one of the holiest sites for Shiites. Wikipedia</p>
<p>The family patriarch, Baghdadi&rsquo;s father Awwad, was active in the religious life of the community. It was at the mosque where his father taught that the teenaged Baghdadi got his own start as a teacher, leading neighborhood children in chanting the Quran. This was his first experience with oratory and religious instruction. When reciting the scripture, a revered vocation in Islam, Baghdadi&rsquo;s quiet voice would come to life, pronouncing the letters in firm, reverberating tones. He devoted countless hours to mastering the subtleties of the art.</p>
<p>Despite the religiosity of Baghdadi&rsquo;s family, some of its members joined the Baath Party, a socialist organization dedicated to the goal of pan-Arab union. Although Baathist leaders tolerated and sometimes even encouraged private devotion as an outlet for religious fervor, they were wary of religious activism as a threat to their rule. Baathism had dominated Iraqi politics and the machinery of state since the late 1960s, so citizens who wanted government jobs had to join the party regardless of their personal convictions.</p>
<p>Two of Baghdadi&rsquo;s uncles served in Saddam&rsquo;s security services, and one of his brothers became an officer in the army. Another brother who served in the military died during the grueling eight-year war that Iraq fought against Iran in the 1980s with tacit U.S. support. Baghdadi might well have shared that fate had the war continued a little longer and his near-sightedness not disqualified him from military service. </p>
<p>Listen to Abdul Basit Abdus Samad, renowned Quran reciter,read from a chapter of the Al-Mu&#8217;minun.</p>
<p>Sorry, your browser does not support audio elements.</p>
<p>The Student</p>
<p>Baghdadi&rsquo;s family is representative in many ways of the diversity of influences and ever-shifting allegiances that were required for survival in Saddam Hussein&rsquo;s Iraq. Not only did they have ties to the Baathist party, if only for practical purposes, but there is evidence that several of Baghdadi&rsquo;s family members, perhaps even his father, were Salafis—adherents of an extreme, puritanical form of Sunni Islam widely practiced in Saudi Arabia and throughout much of the Middle East, including Iraq, where it has deep roots. Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab, the founder of the Saudi strain of Salafism, supposedly studied in the Iraqi city of Mosul in the 18th century, and individual Salafi missionaries spread their beliefs throughout Iraq in the 20th.</p>
<p>Most Salafis preach obedience to Muslim rulers, even bad ones, but Saddam viewed the Salafis as a threat because they condemn secularism and want states to impose Islamic law. So when the Salafis in Iraq began to organize themselves into societies to further their missionary work in the late 1970s, Saddam put them in jail for forming illegal organizations. He backed off in the 1980s during the war with Shiite Iran because he needed to retain the support of Iraq&rsquo;s Sunni minority, which includes the Salafis. But in 1990, two years after the war with Iran ended, Saddam pressured thousands of Salafis to sign a pledge not to convert other Iraqis to their cause.</p>
<p>The Islamic Divide</p>
<p>Hover over shapes for more information (tap on touch device)</p>
<p>Islam is the world’s second-largest religion, with 1.6 billion followers. It began in the 7th century when the Prophet Muhammad claimed to receive revelations from God, which make up the Quran.</p>
<p>•</p>
<p>Its five basic duties include the acceptance of monotheism and that Muhammad is the messenger of Allah, daily prayer, charity, fasting during Ramadan, and making a pilgrimage to Mecca.</p>
<p>After Muhammad’s death in 632, a disagreement over his rightful successor cleaved Islam in two. However, Sunni and Shiite Muslims have lived together peacefully for centuries. </p>
<p>•</p>
<p>In recent years, the rift has been exacerbated by extremist groups like the Islamic State who have attacked Shiite Muslims in Iraq and Syria.</p>
<p>Most Muslims are Sunni— 85–90% worldwide—but they are the minority in Iraq.  </p>
<p>•</p>
<p>They believe that Muhammad&#8217;s succession is not dependent on direct lineage. Jihadist Salafism, a radical fundamentalist strain espoused by the Islamic State and al-Qaida, is an offshoot of Sunni Islam.</p>
<p>Shiite Muslims comprise 10–15% of Islam worldwide, yet they constitute the majority in Iraq and Iran.</p>
<p>•</p>
<p>They believe that Muhammad’s successor must be a direct descendant.</p>
<p>Around the same time, Saddam sought to co-opt his devout subjects by founding in 1989—and naming in his own honor—the Saddam University for Islamic Studies. The university was but one of the many ways he attempted to use religion to strengthen his hold on Iraqi society. As part of what he called his Faith Campaign, which began in 1993, he tried to woo religious conservatives by closing nightclubs, forbidding public consumption of alcohol, and imposing some of the harsh penalties prescribed by Islamic scripture such as severing a hand or foot for theft. In 1994, he confided in a cabinet meeting that his earlier hesitancy about applying Islamic punishments was unwarranted. Such punishments, he observed, could deter crime better than less severe ones. Left unsaid was the fact that they were also useful for frightening his subjects into submission while burnishing his credentials as defender of the faith.</p>
<p>As part of his Faith Campaign, Saddam also promoted the study and recitation of the Quran, promising to use state funds to train 30,000 Quran instructors. Saddam even donated 28 liters of his own blood to be used as ink for a Quran to be housed in the Mother of All Battles Mosque.</p>
<p>Saddam&rsquo;s creation of new jobs teaching the scripture may have influenced Baghdadi&rsquo;s academic career. Unable to study law at the University of Baghdad as he wanted because of his middling grades in high school—he nearly failed English—Baghdadi studied the Quran there instead.</p>
<p>Baghdadi’s college application. Northern German Broadcasting</p>
<p>When Baghdadi graduated from the University of Baghdad in 1996, he enrolled in the recently-established Saddam University for Islamic Studies where he studied for a master&rsquo;s in Quranic recitation, his favorite subject. His family&rsquo;s Baathist connections undoubtedly helped him get into the highly-selective graduate program. Baghdadi&rsquo;s master&rsquo;s thesis was a commentary on an obscure medieval text on Quranic recitation. His task was to reconcile various versions of the manuscript. While tedious, it involved little imagination and no questioning of the content—a perfect project for a dogmatist. He received his master&rsquo;s degree in 1999 and immediately enrolled in Saddam University&rsquo;s doctoral program in Quranic studies.</p>
<p>During Baghdadi&rsquo;s time in graduate school, his paternal uncle, Ismail al-Badri, persuaded him to join the Muslim Brotherhood, a transnational movement dedicated to establishing states governed by Islamic law. In most countries the Brotherhood, which has both liberal and conservative members, had adopted a cautious approach to political change, confined to working within the system. Many of the Brothers in Baghdad, including the ones Baghdadi fell in with at first, were peaceful Salafis who wanted states to impose Islamic law but didn&rsquo;t advocate revolt if the states fail to do so. But Baghdadi quickly gravitated toward those few Salafis whose strict creed led them to call for the overthrow of rulers they considered betrayers of the faith. They called themselves jihadist Salafis. Baghdadi&rsquo;s older brother, Jum`a, was part of this movement. So was Baghdadi&rsquo;s mentor, Muhammad Hardan, a one-time member of the Brotherhood who had fought in the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s.</p>
<p>Baghdadi threw himself into the writings of those Muslim Brothers who had embraced jihadism. Under their tutelage he grew increasingly impatient with the Brotherhood mainstream, which he felt was made up of &ldquo;people of words, not action.&rdquo;</p>
<p>By 2000, Baghdadi was already spoiling for a fight. </p>
<p>The Soccer Star</p>
<p>Most of what we know about Baghdadi between 2000 and 2004 pertains to his personal life, and even that is extremely sketchy. He seems to have had two wives and six children. His first wife, Asma, was the daughter of his maternal uncle. He married his second wife, Isra, later, probably after the U.S. invasion in 2003. Like other conservative Muslims, Baghdadi kept his wives from public view, and he didn&rsquo;t mix much socially himself, preferring to spend time with his family in their small apartment near the Haji Zaydan mosque in the poor Tobchi neighborhood of Baghdad. There he taught Quranic recitation to the neighborhood children and chanted the call to prayer over the mosque&rsquo;s loudspeakers in his sonorous voice.</p>
<p>The mosque was also the place that allowed him to indulge his other passion—for the game of soccer. The mosque had a soccer club, and Baghdadi was the star, remembered as &ldquo;our Messi,&rdquo; a reference to the great Argentinian soccer star Lionel Messi. Teammates recall that he often lost his temper when he failed to score.</p>
<p>His temper could also be ignited by the sight of what he considered un-Islamic behavior. According to a neighbor of Baghdadi&rsquo;s at the time, who was quoted in an article published in The Telegraph last year, he became extremely upset one day when he witnessed members of a wedding party engaging in an activity that appalled him. &ldquo;How can men and women be dancing together like this?&rdquo; he exclaimed. Baghdadi forced the revelers to stop. </p>
<p>Men play soccer in front of the Great Mosque of Samarra, Baghdadi’s birthplace. Alamy</p>
<p>The Prisoner</p>
<p>Late in 2003, after the Americans had defeated and disbanded Saddam&rsquo;s army, Baghdadi helped found Jaysh Ahl al-Sunna wa-l-Jamaah (Army of the People of the Sunna and Communal Solidarity), an insurgent group that fought U.S. troops and their local allies in northern and central Iraq.</p>
<p>Baghdadi was arrested during a U.S. raid and sent to Camp Bucca in Iraq in 2004. Northern German Broadcasting</p>
<p>Soon after, in February 2004, Baghdadi was arrested in Fallujah while visiting a friend who was on the American wanted list. He was transferred to a detention facility at Camp Bucca, a sprawling complex in southern Iraq. Prison files classified him as a &ldquo;civilian detainee,&rdquo; which meant his captors didn&rsquo;t know he was a jihadist.</p>
<p>For the ten months he remained in custody, Baghdadi hid his militancy and devoted himself to religious instruction. &ldquo;Baghdadi was a quiet person,&rdquo; remembers an anonymous fellow inmate interviewed by The Guardian. &ldquo;He has a charisma. You could feel that he was someone important.&rdquo; Baghdadi led prayers, preached Friday sermons, and conducted religious classes for other prisoners. </p>
<p>Once again he dazzled his comrades—and, no doubt, his jailers—on the soccer field. And yet again he was compared to an Argentinian great: his nickname at Camp Bucca was &ldquo;Maradona.&rdquo; </p>
<p>Baghdadi ingratiated himself with both the Sunni inmates and the Americans, looking for opportunities to negotiate with the camp authorities and mediate between rival groups of prisoners. </p>
<p>&ldquo;Every time there was a problem in the camp,&rdquo; recalls The Guardian&rsquo;s source, &ldquo;he was at the center of it. He wanted to be the head of the prison—and when I look back now, he was using a policy of conquer and divide to get what he wanted, which was status. And it worked.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Many of the 24,000 inmates at Bucca were Sunni Arabs who had served in Saddam&rsquo;s military and intelligence services. When Saddam fell, so did they, a consequence of the American purge of the Baathists and the new ascendency of Iraq&rsquo;s long-oppressed Shiite majority. If they weren&rsquo;t jihadists when they arrived, many of them were by the time they left. Radical jihadist manifestos circulated freely under the eyes of the watchful but clueless Americans. </p>
<p>“If there was no American prison in Iraq, there would be no Islamic State now.”- former camp bucca inmate</p>
<p>&ldquo;New recruits were prepared so that when they were freed they were ticking time bombs,&rdquo; remembers another fellow inmate, who was interviewed by a reporter with Al Monitor. When a new prisoner came in, his peers would &ldquo;teach him, indoctrinate him, and give him direction so he leaves a burning flame.&rdquo; Baghdadi would turn out to be the most explosive of those flames, a man responsible for much of the conflagration that would engulf the region less than a decade later.</p>
<p>Detainees pray at Camp Bucca, a U.S.-run facility that closed in 2009. AP</p>
<p>Many of the ex-Baathists at Bucca, some of whom Baghdadi befriended, would later rise with him through the ranks of the Islamic State. &ldquo;If there was no American prison in Iraq, there would be no [Islamic State] now,&rdquo; recalled the inmate interviewed by The Guardian. &ldquo;Bucca was a factory. It made us all. It built our ideology.&rdquo; The prisoners dubbed the camp &ldquo;The Academy,&rdquo; and during his ten months in residence, Baghdadi was one of its faculty members.</p>
<p>By the time Baghdadi was released on December 8, 2004, he had a virtual Rolodex for reconnecting with his co-conspirators and protégés: they had written one another&rsquo;s phone numbers in the elastic of their underwear.</p>
<p>The Confidant </p>
<p>Just two months before Baghdadi&rsquo;s release, al-Qaida established a branch of its terror network in Iraq by absorbing a jihadist militia run by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and putting him in charge of it. Zarqawi, a Jordanian who wanted to create an Islamic state, thought he could use al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI) to provoke a sectarian civil war between Iraq&rsquo;s minority Sunnis and the majority Shiites, which would force the Sunnis to turn to his group for protection. Once AQI emerged victorious from the ensuing bloodbath, as he expected it to do, there would be no serious obstacles to establishing the Islamic state he dreamed of. Al-Qaida&rsquo;s leaders reluctantly agreed to Zarqawi&rsquo;s brutal program because they wanted a hand in the new insurgency against the Americans. But they quickly came to regret their endorsement when the shocking violence of Zarqawi&rsquo;s group, which he publicized online, alienated the Muslim masses whose support al-Qaida cultivated to prosecute its global war on America and its allies. </p>
<p>Baghdadi would almost certainly have met jihadists in Zarqawi&rsquo;s circle during his time in Bucca, and would doubtless have been attracted to a jihadist group even more extreme than his own. After his release from Bucca, Baghdadi called a relative in al-Qaida, who connected him with a spokesman for the group in Iraq. The spokesman convinced Baghdadi to go to Damascus to perform tasks for al-Qaida, assuring him that he could also finish his dissertation while he was working for them. Academically-trained religious scholars are rare in jihadist organizations, so it made sense to send a budding scholar to Syria where the Americans wouldn&rsquo;t be able to get their hands on him. Once he was there, Baghdadi set about his assigned task of ensuring that AQI&rsquo;s online propaganda was in line with its brand of ultraconservative Islam. Baghdadi&rsquo;s tribal connections in Iraq and his ties with other jihadist groups there must have also come in handy, because on several occasions he was able to help foreign jihadists cross Syria&rsquo;s border into his native land. At the time, Syria&rsquo;s President, Bashar al-Assad, was turning a blind eye to the foreign fighter pipeline into Iraq in order to punish the United States for invading the country; that same pipeline would one day flow in the opposite direction after Assad&rsquo;s citizens revolted against him in 2011.</p>
<p>In 2006, al-Qaida in Iraq formed an umbrella organization for jihadist groups resisting the American occupation. Baghdadi&rsquo;s group was one of the first to join. Soon after, Zarqawi declared his intent to establish an Islamic state, directly countermanding al-Qaida&rsquo;s instructions to wait until after the Americans had withdrawn and AQI secured popular support for establishing the state. When Zarqawi was killed in a U.S. airstrike in June, his successor, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, an Egyptian jihadist, went ahead with the plan. He proclaimed the founding of the Islamic State in October and dissolved AQI, announcing that its soldiers were now part of the Islamic State. Masri assumed the title of minister of war although he actually ran the new organization; the titular emir of the group, Abu Umar, an Iraqi, was just a figurehead in the beginning.</p>
<p>The new leaders of the Islamic State pledged private oaths of allegiance to Osama bin Laden, but in public they maintained the fiction that the State was independent of al-Qaida. They hoped outsiders would think of their organization as an independent state or even the beginnings of a restored caliphate, the far-flung empire of early Islam. The ambiguity surrounding their relationship would later lead to conflict between the two organizations.</p>
<p>Because of his scholarly credentials, Baghdadi was put in charge of the Islamic State&rsquo;s religious affairs in some of its Iraqi &ldquo;provinces.&rdquo; Because the group did not yet actually control any territory, this largely meant that Baghdadi continued to be responsible for ensuring that the Islamic State&rsquo;s propaganda reflected its creed, and that its foot soldiers abided by its strictures and implemented the harsh punishments prescribed by Islamic scripture wherever and whenever they could. Accused adulterers whom they managed to capture were stoned, alcohol drinkers were whipped, thieves had their hands amputated, and &ldquo;apostates&rdquo;—anyone who defied the Islamic State&rsquo;s program—were executed.</p>
<p>Taking a break from his pastoral duties, Baghdadi showed up in Baghdad on March 13, 2007, to defend his dissertation. It was yet another critical edition of a medieval book about Quranic recitation—this time a commentary on a poem about how to recite the Quran. Baghdadi&rsquo;s advisor in Tikrit couldn&rsquo;t attend because of the violence raging across Iraq, so he sent in comments on the dissertation, pointing out some errors and suggesting some revisions. But overall he was happy with his student&rsquo;s work, and Baghdadi received his Ph.D. in Quranic Sciences with a grade of &ldquo;very good&rdquo; for his dissertation.</p>
<p>ISIS STONES THE ACCUSED ADULTERERS IT CAPTURES, WHIPS ALCOHOL DRINKERS, AMPUTATES THE HANDS OF THIEVES, AND EXECUTES APOSTATES.</p>
<p>Baghdadi&rsquo;s newly-minted scholarly credentials as well as the work he had done managing the Islamic State&rsquo;s religious affairs brought him to the attention of Masri, who appointed him supervisor of the Sharia Committee, hence the enforcer of all the Islamic State&rsquo;s religious strictures. Masri also named him to the 11-member Consultative Council. The council ostensibly advised the emir, Abu Umar, but was actually controlled by Masri, whose support came from his fellow foreign jihadists. When Baghdadi joined the council, the Iraqi members were growing restless and had rallied around their countryman Abu Umar, hoping for a greater say in the decision-making. </p>
<p>Much as he had done in Camp Bucca, Baghdadi quickly found a role as a conciliator between the two sides. Despite being a Masri protégé, Baghdadi earned enough of Abu Umar&rsquo;s trust to be appointed to the Islamic State&rsquo;s Coordination Committee, a powerful three-man panel that could select, supervise, and fire the Islamic State&rsquo;s commanders in the group&rsquo;s Iraqi provinces. Baghdadi drafted messages on Abu Umar&rsquo;s behalf to his al-Qaida boss, Osama bin Laden. He also coordinated communication between the Islamic State&rsquo;s top leaders and their provincial representatives, much of which was conducted by couriers.</p>
<p>In early 2010, the Iraqis captured one of these couriers, a man who carried messages between Abu Umar and the Islamic State&rsquo;s commander in Baghdad, Manaf al-Rawi. According to one insider account, a mole in the Iraqi security service warned Baghdadi that al-Rawi was in danger, but Baghdadi failed to pass on the warning. Perhaps Baghdadi worried more about saving his own skin than protecting his bosses—communicating with them after the courier&rsquo;s capture could have exposed him to danger. Whatever the case, the captured courier led the Iraqi authorities to al-Rawi, who, under interrogation, gave his captors information that enabled a U.S.-Iraqi force in April 2010 to surround the mud house outside Tikrit where Abu Umar and Masri were hiding. The two blew themselves up rather than surrender.</p>
<p>With their deaths, the Islamic State faced its first leadership succession. The Consultative Council couldn&rsquo;t meet in conclave to choose a new emir since that might have ended with another American-led raid and another multiple suicide. Bin Laden, who still had the allegiance of the Islamic State, issued instructions to the Consultative Council to appoint an interim leader and to send him a list of candidates for emir and their qualifications.</p>
<p>The Emir</p>
<p>With the death of the Islamic State&rsquo;s commanders, the head of the Islamic State&rsquo;s military council, Hajji Bakr, was suddenly in a position to manipulate the succession. A former officer in Saddam&rsquo;s army who had served time in Camp Bucca after Baghdadi&rsquo;s release, Bakr was tainted as the former servant of an impious regime and therefore not a contender for supreme leadership himself, so he set about to be the kingmaker and the power behind the throne. Ignoring bin Laden&rsquo;s instructions, Hajji Bakr polled the 11 members of the Consultative Council on their preferences. But he reportedly rigged the outcome by writing a letter to each saying that all of the others were in favor of Baghdadi. Perhaps the cagey colonel believed the young Baghdadi would be more pliable than the other contenders, or that he would be less loyal to the Islamic State&rsquo;s distant lords in al-Qaida, who constantly objected to the Islamic State&rsquo;s brutal brand of insurgency. In making the case for Baghdadi, Hajji Bakr would undoubtedly have extolled Baghdadi&rsquo;s lineage from the Prophet, his mastery of the Quran, and his managerial experience in the organization. </p>
<p>VIDEO | 2:55</p>
<p>Brookings’s Bruce Riedel explains the origins of ISIS. </p>
<p>The council elected the new emir of the Islamic State by a vote of 9 to 2. It was then that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, at the age of 39, took his now-famous nom de guerre, a double homage to his faith and his native land. Abu Bakr was Muhammad&rsquo;s father-in-law and, after the Prophet&rsquo;s death, the first caliph; Baghdad was the capital of the grandest caliphate in early Islam, the Abbasid dynasty. The Abbasids had swept to power in the eighth century using clever apocalyptic propaganda and clandestine networks to mobilize popular anger against the ruling regime in Damascus. Baghdadi was clearly hoping to repeat the performance on the same stage.</p>
<p>With the new emir&rsquo;s blessing, not to mention gratitude, Hajji Bakr set about purging the ranks of the Islamic State of anyone who could challenge Baghdadi&rsquo;s authority. Dubbed by Islamic State insiders as the &ldquo;prince of shadows&rdquo; and the emir&rsquo;s &ldquo;private minister,&rdquo; Hajji Bakr settled scores and eliminated rivals through intimidation and assassination, much as Saddam had done.</p>
<p>The power had now shifted from the foreign fighters to the Iraqi members of the Islamic State. As American and Iraqi forces killed or captured the previous emir&rsquo;s commanders, their replacements were often, like Baghdadi and Hajji Bakr, former prisoners from Camp Bucca. And many, like Bakr, were also former officers in Saddam&rsquo;s military or intelligence services. Such men would prove useful in running a new authoritarian state.</p>
<p>Secure on the throne, Baghdadi and his éminence grise set about reviving the Islamic State&rsquo;s flagging fortunes. Military setbacks had forced the group underground in 2008 and subsequent attacks like the one on Abu Umar and Masri had decimated its command structure. Baghdadi and Hajji Bakr were determined to bring the fight out in the open again and seize the territory necessary for establishing a caliphate. The growing unrest in Syria in 2011 played directly into their hands. Presented with an opportunity to inject violence into what had been a peaceful revolt, Baghdadi sent one of his Syrian operatives to set up a secret branch of the Islamic State in the country that year. The branch, later known as the Nusra Front, initially followed the Islamic State&rsquo;s playbook by attacking civilians as part of a clandestine terror campaign to sow chaos. The hope was that the Islamic State would be able to capitalize on that chaos in order to make its first land grab.</p>
<p>Syrian President Assad lumped these attacks on civilians with the actions of those who had been protesting his regime to claim that the peaceful protestors were really nothing but terrorists. But as Nusra evolved into an insurgent organization, it became more careful about killing Sunni civilians and more dedicated to working with other Sunni rebel factions to oust Assad. This shift also reflected the guidance Nusra received from al-Qaida&rsquo;s new emir, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who had replaced bin Laden after he was killed by U.S. Navy SEALs in May 2011. Zawahiri believed it was wiser to cultivate popular support before trying to establish an Islamic state, so he called on Nusra to collaborate with the other rebels.</p>
<p>Baghdadi disagreed with Zawahiri, to whom he had pledged a private oath of allegiance. As he saw things, there was already an Islamic State; it just needed to be made real by territorial conquest in Syria. Nusra&rsquo;s cooperation with the other Sunni rebels was thwarting that plan. </p>
<p>BAGHDADI IMPOSES HARSH RELIGIOUS LAWS AS A WAY OF LEGITIMIZING HIS STATE, TERRIFYING LOCAL POPULATIONS INTO SUBMISSION.</p>
<p>In the spring of 2013, Baghdadi ordered his subordinates in Nusra to comply with his strategy; they refused. Furious, Baghdadi announced publicly that Nusra was part of the Islamic State, which he renamed the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Nusra&rsquo;s leader responded by repudiating Baghdadi&rsquo;s authority and pledging his own direct oath of allegiance to Zawahiri. When Zawahiri accepted the oath of Nusra&rsquo;s leader and ordered Baghdadi to concern himself only with Iraq, he refused. Baghdadi wanted control of Syria as well. Under Baghdadi&rsquo;s leadership the Islamic State began to gobble up territory in eastern Syria, pushing out other Sunni rebel groups including Nusra. Zawahiri had no choice but to expel the Islamic State from al-Qaida, which he did in February 2014. In the ensuing melee between Nusra and the Islamic State, the latter came out on top: The State consolidated its hold on eastern Syria and siphoned off the bulk of Nusra&rsquo;s foreign fighter contingent, whose members were more interested in setting up a state of their own than trying to topple Assad&rsquo;s.</p>
<p>The ISIS Apocalypse: The History, Strategy, and Doomsday Vision of the Islamic State by William McCants</p>
<p>In his new book, McCants explains how the Islamic State defied conventional jihadist thinking about how to wage wars and win recruits. Based largely on primary sources in Arabic, including secret al-Qaida and Islamic State letters few outsiders have seen, McCants reveals the group’s violent past and forecasts its dark future. Learn more about the book from St. Martin’s Press. </p>
<p>Soon after, reports began to circulate about how the Islamic State governed its new lands. Baghdadi had previously been able to inflict Islamic punishments only on those who were unlucky enough to be captured by the Islamic State insurgent group, because the group was not yet in control of any territory. But now Baghdadi was the head of a government that reigned over much of eastern Syria, and he could impose his will over hundreds of thousands of people, especially those in the Islamic State&rsquo;s stronghold of Raqqa. Baghdadi ordered Christians to pay a protection tax or face death. Subjects accused of theft had their hands amputated; those accused of adultery were whipped or stoned to death. Although these punishments are found in Islamic scripture, most Muslim countries have abandoned them as outmoded. Even al-Qaida&rsquo;s leaders had counseled their affiliates to apply the punishments leniently. But Baghdadi viewed imposing the harsh religious laws as a way of legitimizing his new state as &ldquo;Islamic,&rdquo; and terrifying the local population into submission. Like Saddam, he understood the political utility of brutality in the name of religion.</p>
<p>In the same vein, Baghdadi labeled Muslims who resisted his rule as apostates. Recalcitrant Sunni tribesmen and captured government soldiers were executed en masse and dumped into anonymous graves, a warning to anyone who would defy him.</p>
<p>His rule in eastern Syria secure, Baghdadi set his sights on seizing adjoining land in western Iraq.</p>
<p>ISIS militants parade in Tel Abyad, Syria, on the border with Turkey in 2014. Reuters</p>
<p>The Caliph</p>
<p>Since early 2014, the Islamic State had made steady gains in western Iraq. The Sunnis living there were angry at the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad for shutting them out of the military and ejecting them from the halls of power after the Americans left. When Sunni tribes in western Iraq began fighting against the government in late 2013, Baghdadi ordered his soldiers to join the fray. Religious zealots, tribesmen, and Baathist secularists fought side-by-side in common cause to throw off Shiite rule. In the winter and spring of 2014, the Islamic State made inroads in Fallujah and Ramadi by working with its allies. State fighters rounded up policemen and soldiers who resisted and filmed their gruesome executions. The videos spread rapidly among Iraq&rsquo;s military and security services.</p>
<p>In June 2014, the Islamic State and its allies launched a lightning attack on Mosul, Iraq&rsquo;s second-largest city. They captured the city with little effort, its garrison force and local police too demoralized and too terrified by the videos to stand and fight. </p>
<p>Institute for the Study of War</p>
<p>With that victory, the Islamic State dominated territory in eastern Syria and western Iraq that stretched roughly the distance between Washington, D.C., and Cleveland, Ohio. Later that month, the Islamic State&rsquo;s spokesman proclaimed the return of God&rsquo;s kingdom on earth, the caliphate, and Baghdadi reverted to his given name, preceded now with the ultimate title: Caliph Ibrahim. To justify this outsized claim, his supporters circulated the genealogy of his tribe, which traced its lineage back to Muhammad&rsquo;s descendants. This was considered an important qualification, for some Islamic prophecies of the End Times say a man descended from the Prophet will one day rule as caliph—an office that hasn&rsquo;t existed since the fall of the Ottoman Empire after World War I.</p>
<p>The so-called caliph ascended to the pulpit in Mosul days later to deliver the Friday sermon, his first and only public appearance since taking the helm of the Islamic State in 2010. He wore black robes to evoke the memory of the Abbasid caliphs who had ruled from Baghdad; they, too, had come to power by claiming descent from the Prophet&rsquo;s family and promising a return to pristine Islam. </p>
<p>THE BARE FACTS OF BAGHDADI’S BIOGRAPHY SHOW AN UNUSUALLY CAPABLE MAN. HE HELPED FOUND AN INSURGENT GROUP, FINISHED A PH.D. WHILE MANAGING THE RELIGIOUS AFFAIRS OF THE ISLAMIC STATE, BUILT COALITIONS, AND INTIMIDATED RIVALS.</p>
<p>&ldquo;I was appointed to rule you but I am not the best among you,&rdquo; he proclaimed. &ldquo;If you see me acting truly, then follow me. If you see me acting falsely, then advise and guide me…. If I disobey God, then do not obey me.&rdquo; This was a paraphrase of what the first caliph, Abu Bakr, had said when he was elected by Muhammad&rsquo;s comrades.</p>
<p>The capture of Mosul convinced the hitherto-reluctant American government that it had to act. American planes began dropping bombs on Islamic State positions soon after. In reprisal, the Islamic State beheaded its Western captives. They went to their deaths dressed in orange jumpsuits like those worn by many Iraqis in U.S. custody during the previous decade, a grim form of televised revenge that had originated with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian founder of al-Qaida in Iraq, after the revelations from Abu Ghraib prison. Another American hostage, aid worker Kayla Mueller, was repeatedly raped by Baghdadi in the home of a henchman. Baghdadi justified the sex slavery, like the beheadings, on religious grounds.</p>
<p>Since Baghdadi&rsquo;s sermon, the media has twice reported that he was killed or seriously wounded by airstrikes, first in November 2014 and again in March 2015. But in May 2015 the secretive leader of the Islamic State reemerged to issue a statement over the Internet offering both guidance and proof of life to his legion of followers.</p>
<p>Baghdadi delivers a Friday sermon from the Great Mosque in Mosul, Iraq. AP </p>
<p>Still, the near misses raise the question of what would happen if Baghdadi dies in office. The answer depends on what one makes of his life. For some, Baghdadi is just a cipher, manipulated by non-religious ex-Baathists or thugs who are using the Islamic State to attain power. Or he&rsquo;s a cog in a machine, an expression of an impersonal institution or historical forces. These views at least agree that Baghdadi is not his own man; his sins are the sins of others, perhaps Saddam Hussein, perhaps George W. Bush, perhaps a cabal of former regime loyalists. If Baghdadi disappears, the argument goes, he will just be replaced by a new mindless figurehead.</p>
<p>RELATED CONTENT</p>
<p>Read all Brookings’s content on ISIS.</p>
<p>Read about Middle East research and analysis at the Brookings Doha Center.</p>
<p>Should the U.S put boots on the ground to fight ISIS? Watch the Brookings debate.</p>
<p>Read The Islamic State: A Brief Introductionby Brookings scholar Charles Lister.</p>
<p>But the bare facts of Baghdadi&rsquo;s biography show an unusually capable man. He helped found an insurgent group, finished a Ph.D. while managing the religious affairs of the Islamic State, and has been able to prevail amid the State&rsquo;s cutthroat politics because of his skill at coalition building and his ability to intimidate his rivals. The consolidation of the Islamic State&rsquo;s territorial gains in Syria and its rapid expansion into Iraq came after the death of his &ldquo;prince of shadows.&rdquo; Although the New York Times recently reported that he himself is making arrangements for a succession in the event of his demise by devolving many of his military powers to subordinates, his blend of religious scholarship and political cunning won’t be easily replaced. None of his possible successors combine his Prophetic lineage, religious knowledge, and skill at winning powerful friends and quieting dissent.</p>
<p>Throughout his life, Baghdadi has chosen the path of religious extremism, and in ways as small as denouncing dancers at a wedding and as large as mass executions he has always attempted to impose his views on others. He could have been a university professor, persuading young minds with argument. But the believer became the commander of the believers, seeking to impose his savagely bleak religious vision on the entire world. &ldquo;The march of the mujahidin will continue until they reach Rome,&rdquo; he proclaimed last year. If Baghdadi&rsquo;s life is a cautionary tale, it is about the danger of creating the chaos that allows men like him to flourish.</p>
<p>READ THE FOLLOW-UP ESSAY ON SAUDI ARABIA&#8217;S NEW CROWN PRINCE, AKA “THE PRINCE OF COUNTERTERRORISM.” THE ESSAY&#8217;S AUTHOR IS BROOKINGS SENIOR FELLOW BRUCE RIEDEL, A FORMER CIA OFFICER AND SENIOR POLICY OFFICIAL.</p>
<p>William McCants is a fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy and director of the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World. He is also an adjunct faculty member at Johns Hopkins University and has served in government and think tank positions related to Islam, the Middle East and terrorism, including as State Department senior adviser for countering violent extremism. He is the author of Founding Gods, Inventing Nations: Conquest and Culture Myths from Antiquity to Islam.</p>
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