Brookings: Experts - Andrés Rozental

What Is the Future of U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation?

Andrés Rozental — Wed, 08 May 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The decision by the Peña Nieto administration to channel the U.S.-Mexico security agenda through the Interior Ministry is not designed to negatively affect the close ties established over the past years in intelligence sharing and cooperation. Rather, it is the result of the Mexican government's decision to bring all the official agencies involved with that agenda domestically under a single umbrella.

The previous Public Safety Ministry and Federal Police are now coordinated from the Interior Ministry, so it is logical to have counterpart U.S. agencies use that same channel. There is no reason to believe that this change will negatively affect the bilateral relationship on security or drug trafficking issues since President Obama clearly concurred with this new approach during his visit to Mexico and during conversations with Mexico's president and his cabinet.

Aside from the security agenda, which is still an important element in the relationship, the two presidents indicated that other priorities will characterize the agenda going forward, especially economic ties, business facilitation, border infrastructure and educational exchanges. This is a positive development in my view as it moves the U.S.-Mexico agenda back to the issues that have historically brought our two countries together and de-emphasizes the monothematic nature of the relationship over the past six years.

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Authors

Andrés Rozental

Publication: Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor

Image Source: © Kevin Lamarque / Reuters

What Will the Proposed Telecom Overhaul Mean for Mexico?

Andrés Rozental — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 13:17:00 -0400

In his first 100 days in office, President Peña Nieto has successfully garnered widespread political support for various reform packages that had been pending from previous administrations. Education and labor reforms were the first to be approved by Congress and in the case of the former is now constitutionally law.

The telecommunications reform package has won approval in the lower house of Congress and now must pass the Senate and be ratified by the states before becoming part of the Constitution. Rather than being specifically targeted at any individual company, the reform is designed to open the sector to competition and to guarantee Mexicans access to services that up to now have been expensive and oligopolistic in nature. Measures such as opening up national television to additional channels, wider broadband coverage and a stricter regulatory regime are all designed to fundamentally change Mexico's telecoms structure. When finally approved, these changes will greatly benefit the Mexican economy by generating competition and additional players in the sector.

All indications are that this reform package will be approved, perhaps with congressional modifications. Although there has been opposition by some in the PAN to parts of the proposal, the other parties are agreed on the majority of the changes. This augurs well for further proposals that Peña Nieto plans to send to Congress in the coming months, especially the energy and fiscal reforms that are so necessary for Mexico to guarantee future growth and prosperity.

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Authors

Andrés Rozental

Publication: Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor

Image Source: © Edgard Garrido / Reuters

How Well Has Peña Nieto Performed in His First 100 Days?

Andrés Rozental — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 00:00:00 -0500

President Peña Nieto's first 100 days have been marked by a great deal of activity and a feeling of high expectation among most Mexicans. The president's closest team of officials has been working hard on various aspects of his electoral promises and the 95 commitments contained in the 'Pact for Mexico.' The same is true for the PRI leadership in Congress and the 19 state governors that represent the ruling political party.

While there appears to be a decision to delay presenting urgent energy and fiscal reform packages to Congress, there is nonetheless a flurry of activity on many other fronts. Education and telecommunications reform are among the highest priorities, but there has also been progress on judicial reform with important changes to the 'amparo' regulations already approved by an overwhelming majority of the lower house of Congress, a renewed push for those jurisdictions to implement oral trials to do so well before the 2015 deadline, a national campaign to fight hunger, a gubernatorial commitment to implement unified state police forces and several high-profile administrative changes that do not need congressional approval. Peña Nieto apparently believes that addressing low-hanging fruit first will make it easier for the more difficult energy and fiscal reforms to be successfully approved in the second half of the year.

While the 'Pact for Mexico' has so far been a cohesionary force among the three main political parties, the true test of its strength will come when the administration presents its energy and fiscal reform proposals. Internal divisions in the PAN and PRD might well interfere with the government's ability to hold the various factions together for the two thirds majority it needs to pass constitutional changes.

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Authors

Andrés Rozental

Publication: Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor

Image Source: © STRINGER Mexico / Reuters

Has the U.S. "Militarized the Battle" Against Illegal Drugs?

Andrés Rozental — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0500

The whole issue of how the United States and other countries continue to spend these huge amounts of money to ensure that the fight against drug trafficking remains outside the United States needs to be re-considered, not only because the existing interdiction policy has been an abysmal failure, but also because the sale of large quantities of arms and other military hardware to governments in Latin America and the Caribbean has only made their own security and public safety situation worse. The amounts mentioned by the Associated Press are only a small portion of the total budgets spent on unsuccessfully trying to stop drugs from entering the United States.

The only smart solution to the illicit narcotics market is to face the unpalatable, but nonetheless real, fact that drugs—like alcohol, tobacco and other stimulants—are an integral part of social behavior in most countries and that they need to be differentiated, decriminalized, taxed and regulated just like prescription drugs, liquor, cigarettes and the rest. Until that happens, the shameful waste of resources being spent on a 'mission impossible' only fuels the criminal elements involved in the business and raises the associated social, economic and political costs being borne by producing, consuming and transit nations. This relates both to military as well as civilian spending associated with the drug trafficking phenomenon and in my opinion applies equally to the public and private sectors.

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Authors

Andrés Rozental

Publication: Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor

Image Source: © Carlos Jasso / Reuters

Have Prospects for U.S.-Mexican Relations Improved?

Andrés Rozental — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0500

The Mexico-U.S. relationship won't substantially change; there are too many ongoing issues to expect any major shift in what has become a very close and cooperative bilateral partnership in economic, security and social aspects. There will be a change of emphasis from the Mexican side as far as the security relationship goes, with Peña Nieto's declared intention to focus much more on the economy and public safety. He has already moved away from the constant statements made by his predecessor extolling the number of criminals apprehended and 'successes' in the fight against organized crime. The change of message comes as a relief to many Mexicans tired of hearing about violence and crime on a daily basis.

There are two issues on the bilateral agenda, however, that portend significant changes if President Obama is able to fulfill his latest commitments: gun control and immigration reform. The latter seems to be headed toward a bipartisan agreement that might fundamentally change the situation for the thousands of Mexicans who are in the United States without proper documents. If Congress passes a comprehensive reform that allows them to normalize their situation and have a path to legal residency and eventual citizenship, it would have a huge positive impact on the relationship. As for gun control, Mexico would obviously favor a total ban on the sale and possession of assault weapons as the best way to prevent them from crossing the border, but even universal background checks and limits on the number and type of weapons an individual can purchase would be a welcome development. On trade ties, Mexico reached a quarter trillion dollars of total exports and imports in 2012 — a hefty portion of that unprecedented amount was with the United States. As Mexico becomes an increasingly important part of the global supply chain and U.S. companies continue to invest heavily south of the border, the economic relationship has nowhere to go but up. And if Peña Nieto is able to fundamentally reform the country's energy sector, there promises to be even more investment.

Authors

Andrés Rozental

Publication: Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor

Image Source: © Handout . / Reuters

Forging a New Strategic Partnership Between Canada and Mexico

Andrés Rozental and Perrin Beatty — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 10:37:00 -0500

Editor's Note: This report was originally published by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

The visit to Ottawa by Mexico’s President-elect Enrique Peña Nieto the week of November 26, provides Canada with the opportunity to elevate its bilateral relationship with Mexico to the level of a strategic partnership. Bilateral trade and investment have increased steadily since Canada signed the North American Free Trade Agreement, but there remains enormous, untapped potential, particularly in Mexico. In this report, Andrés Rozental and Perrin Beatty offer substantive recommendations that point to the benefit of efforts that will intensify bilateral partnerships, not only in their own right, but also in strengthening both countries’ ability to deal more effectively with the United States in pursuing matters of mutual concern.

Recommendations:

Work on deepening the direct, bilateral relationship between Canada and Mexico where there are real gains to be made by strengthening trade, investment and people-to-people linkages.
Work together to maximize benefits from participation in the TransPacific Partnership (TPP).
Pursue further economic cooperation with the United States on a pragmatic basis.
Institutionalize the North American Leaders’ Summit (NALS) and establish a complementary North American Business Council.
Launch a public awareness campaign about the mutual economic opportunities for Canada and Mexico.
Remove the visa requirement for Mexican visitors to Canada and encourage student exchanges between Canada and Mexico.
Increase funding to the Anti-Crime Capacity Building Program (ACCBP).

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Authors

Andrés Rozental
Perrin Beatty

Publication: Canadian Chamber of Commerce

Image Source: © Henry Romero / Reuters

What’s Good for Mexico Is Good for Canada

Andrés Rozental and Perrin Beatty — Tue, 27 Nov 2012 00:00:00 -0500

President-elect Enrique Peña Nieto’s visit to Ottawa this week offers a major opportunity to upgrade bilateral relations between Canada and Mexico to the level of a strategic partnership.

Although Canada joined the North American free-trade agreement talks to preserve the gains from the earlier Canadian-U.S. free-trade agreement, this “reluctant” decision has proved to be remarkably rewarding. Canada not only succeeded in protecting its primary market with its most important trading partner – the United States – but it also found a new partner in Mexico. Since NAFTA, Canadian trade with Mexico has grown nearly sixfold. Mexico is now Canada’s third-largest trading partner, with two-way trade reaching $34.4-billion in 2011.

The growth in the bilateral economic relationship has not been limited to trade. Canadian investments in Mexico have more than doubled since the late 1980s, as Canada has become one of Mexico’s largest sources of foreign direct investment. More than 2,500 Canadian companies have offices and operations in Mexico. Many have used their Mexican operations as launch pads to reach other markets in Central and South America. Mexican firms are now also showing greater interest in Canada.

After the United States, Mexico is now the most popular foreign destination for Canadians. The majority of these are short-term visitors, but there are also a growing number of business people, students and other long-term residents living in Mexico. In the other direction, Mexico is the second-largest source of temporary foreign workers for Canada, boosting the productivity of Canada’s agricultural sector through the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Program. As Canada’s labour force continues to age, Mexico offers a rich source of younger workers upon which to draw.

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Authors

Andrés Rozental
Perrin Beatty

Publication: The Globe and Mail

Image Source: © STRINGER Mexico / Reuters

Where Is the Drug Policy Debate Headed Next?

Andrés Rozental — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 00:00:00 -0500

There are now 22 states that have passed initiatives either legalizing recreational or medical marijuana. With laws in almost half of the 50 states now in conflict with the federal government, which purports to maintain its prohibition on the production, distribution or consumption of cannabis and other narcotics, something has to give.

But the issue is not limited to contradictory federal and state laws within the United States. Countries like Mexico, the Central American nations and some Caribbean islands, which have been at the forefront of the fruitless fight against illicit drugs entering the United States from their territories, are now faced with a growing conundrum.

While expensive and failed interdiction efforts have effectively been subcontracted by Washington to third countries, there is a clear tendency within the world's largest drug consuming country to remove both the stigma and legal prohibition against individual consumption. This will inevitably lead to a reconsideration of why we are spilling blood and spending huge sums of money to satisfy outdated laws that Americans themselves are gradually repudiating. Mexico, in particular, needs to re-examine its strategy in light of these recent developments and make a decision as to whether it wants to continue to fight a battle that a majority of Americans in a recent Gallup poll opposed.

It is time for America to wake up and face the reality of its drug culture by harmonizing federal laws with citizen's demands and ending the criminalization of drugs. Mexico and many other countries in the region and beyond will benefit by removing the sale of at least soft drugs from organized crime and bringing it under the same controls that the government applies to alcohol and tobacco. Demand creates supply in this market just as it does in any open economy; as long as the demand remains, drugs will be supplied. Better to tax, regulate and supervise the market than to continue a failed strategy of pretending that the problem wouldn't exist if only producing and transit countries didn't allow drugs to reach the U.S. market.

Authors

Andrés Rozental

Publication: Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor

Image Source: © STRINGER Mexico / Reuters

What Legacy Does Felipe Calderón Leave in Mexico?

Andrés Rozental — Wed, 31 Oct 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Felipe Calderón's achievements, such as they are, will be quickly overshadowed by his legacy of a failed strategy in the fight against organized crime and the drug cartels, an unfulfilled pledge to create sufficient jobs to absorb new entrants into the market and a lackluster economic growth record.

Although the country's economy has performed reasonably well when compared to other middle-income nations and most industrialized ones, much of this has been due to a tenuous recovery in the United States, a competitive currency and a resumption of consumer spending on durable goods that Mexico produces for the U.S. market. There is little evidence that the underlying structure of Mexico's economy has improved sufficiently to weather another downturn in the United States or indeed a continuing global recession. Almost nothing was accomplished in getting needed structural reforms passed, nor was there any attempt to define an industrial policy for Mexico beyond promoting the automotive and aerospace sectors.

On the security front, there is little to praise vis-à-vis the current administration's accomplishments. Not only is the high level of deaths attributed to the war on cartels and other criminals ample proof that violence is still very much the order of the day, but the flow of drugs into the United States as well as the wave of assault rifles and other arms coming into Mexico continue relatively unabated.

Incoming President Peña Nieto will hopefully concentrate his government's efforts on achieving the reforms needed to accelerate economic growth, provide many more jobs, reform outdated state institutions and give Mexico the rule of law that is required to build confidence among Mexicans and foreigners alike. Success on these fronts will give longterm sustenance to Mexico's current economic performance.

Authors

Andrés Rozental

Publication: Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor

Image Source: © Henry Romero / Reuters

What Would a Romney Victory Mean for Trade With the Region?

Andrés Rozental — Thu, 25 Oct 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Gov. Romney's promise to 'dramatically expand trade with Latin America' through additional free-trade agreements between the United States and the region doesn't carry much weight given the existing and future prospects of commercial ties with most of the region.

The United States is part of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which has led to dramatic increases in trade with and among its two other partners, Canada and Mexico (currently the first- and second-largest export markets for the United States). However, little has been added to NAFTA since it was signed 20 years ago and the concept of 'North America' in Washington has almost no support from the political establishment of either party.

In addition to NAFTA, the United States has free-trade arrangements with Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Peru and–as of next week—Panama. Together with Mexico, these countries account for a significant portion of trade that the United States could eventually grow within Latin America. The two missing regional economies are Brazil and Argentina, with which the United States has relatively important trade ties. Although they represent significant potential partners in new free-trade accords, both primarily sell commodities to the outside world and would not be exceptionally large new markets for American exports given their generally protected economies.

Authors

Andrés Rozental

Publication: Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor

Image Source: © Brian Snyder / Reuters

Are Mexican Factories Gaining an Upper Hand Against China's?

Andrés Rozental — Tue, 18 Sep 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Editor's Note: This commentary was originally published in the Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor on September 18, 2012.

With the rising cost of wages in China, manufacturers are increasingly considering Mexico an attractive location to 'reshore' production, McClatchy reported Sept. 10. Is Mexico gaining a competitive edge over China in terms of manufacturing? Or will other low-wage countries come to replace both China and Mexico as manufacturing destinations? What are the challenges and benefits of moving production facilities to Mexico? Can Mexico leverage the low cost of wages into more sustainable growth?

Andrés Rozental: Low wages have never been the sole determining factor for companies to decide in which country to site manufacturing facilities; otherwise countries such as Haiti or Bangladesh would be the manufacturing capitals of the world. Many other factors, such as availability of skilled labor, infrastructure, certainty of rules and regulations and fairness of the justice system, all play a significant role. True, China's wages are rising and no longer represent an overwhelming advantage for labor-intensive industries, but salaries in Mexico and other middle-income countries are also climbing. Studies show that the all-in cost for an average factory worker in a Chinese industrial zone is more or less equal to a Mexican working in a maquiladora near the U.S. border. Where Mexico does have a clear advantage over China—and this is what is driving companies to relocate facilities to our country—is in our geographic proximity to one of the largest consumer markets in the world, economic and political stability, ability to provide just-in-time sourcing and a relatively transparent regulatory framework in which to do business. One shouldn't forget that Mexico is fundamentally a sophisticated manufacturing economy that is growing at a very acceptable rate when compared to other emerging market economies. While it is true that we depend enormously on the strength of the U.S. economy because of NAFTA and our huge bilateral trade and investment relationship, it is equally true that Mexico, together with Canada, will always be the first to benefit from an economic recovery in our neighbor. Tens of thousands of companies have taken advantage of Mexico's benefits and foreign direct investment flows continue to show robustness even in the face of the insecurity and violence that affect parts of the country as a result of the fight against organized crime and drug trafficking.

Authors

Andrés Rozental

Publication: Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor

Image Source: © Tomas Bravo / Reuters

Why Is Ecuador Protecting WikiLeaks' Julian Assange?

Andrés Rozental — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Editor's Note: Several guest commentators, including Latin America Initiative senior fellow Andrés Rozental, responded to questions posed by the Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor. The full issue is available on their website.

Q: Ecuador's foreign minister announced Aug. 16 that the South American country was granting political asylum to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, who faces extradition to Sweden on sexual assault charges. However, authorities in Britain, where Assange has been holed up in Ecuador's embassy since June, have refused to grant Assange safe passage out of the country and threatened to revoke the embassy's diplomatic status. Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa said Sunday that Britain had withdrawn that threat. What are Ecuador's motivations for granting asylum to Assange? How does the decision affect Ecuador's relations with Britain, the United States and other countries? Are there larger implications of Britain's threats to revoke the embassy's diplomatic status?

Andrés Rozental: In the first place, Mr. Assange cannot really be considered a political refugee. He is accused of crimes in Sweden and the British authorities have committed to extradite him so he can face his accusers in a Swedish court. Assange appealed the extradition as far as British law allows and lost on each occasion. His decision to seek refuge in a foreign embassy in London represents a last ditch effort to avoid being sent to Sweden, from where he fears that he might be extradited to the United States to face charges related to the WikiLeaks case.

Since American jurisprudence contemplates the death penalty for acts of treason, which Assange is accused of committing when he released the Wikileaks material publicly, his argument for requesting asylum in a foreign diplomatic mission is that he fears for his life if Sweden ever decides to send him to the United States. Assange obviously chose Ecuador's Embassy in London for two reasons: first, because political and diplomatic asylum are a sacred institution among Latin American countries and as a rule asylum requests are granted, and secondly, given Ecuador's current government and a relatively hostile relationship with Washington, Assange correctly assumed that he would be granted asylum by a country that is not on the friendliest terms with the United States.

The British government's threats to withdraw diplomatic status from Ecuador's mission in London and enter the premises to arrest Assange created such a negative reaction, both inside the United Kingdom and abroad, that London was forced to retract them over the weekend. For the next step, one can only assume that British authorities will begin a process of negotiation with Ecuador to try to resolve the impasse, but in the meantime, Mr. Assange might become a semi-permanent guest of Ecuador's ambassador in London while a solution is found. If the Swedish government gives Assange guarantees that he won't be sent to the United States, that might open the way for a way out.

Authors

Andrés Rozental

Publication: Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor

Image Source: Olivia Harris / Reuters

What Hurdles Face Brazil Ahead of the Olympics & World Cup?

Andrés Rozental — Fri, 17 Aug 2012 00:00:00 -0400

After what has been universally characterized as a tremendous success by London in organizing the Olympics, Rio de Janero and Brazil will have a tough act to follow. While London is generally a disciplined and orderly city, Rio, like many other large urban concentrations in developing countries, is somewhat chaotic and disorganized. The biggest challenge the Brazilians face is to somehow make logistics work during both the World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016. A large hotel deficit in Rio, combined with poor public transportation networks and phenomenal traffic congestion—especially in São Paulo—will present huge challenges to the authorities as they prepare for the influx of tens of thousands of athletes and spectators.

While there is still time to build the necessary new infrastructure, Brazil needs to accelerate
preparations and ensure that the airports, roads, transportation facilities and stadiums are ready. Neither FIFA nor the International Olympic Committee seem to be worried that things are not on schedule, but the risk remains that some of the major projects might not be in place by 2014. Security is also a concern, but more from the perspective of localized crime and violence, than from any terrorist threat. The mayor of Rio de Janeiro was in London twice during these past Olympics and was able to take advantage of watching the recently concluded Games to better understand the size and complexity of the events and how to adequately prepare for every contingency.

Having attended several of the events in London myself, I can't underestimate the task ahead and Brazil's challenges in preparing for their time in the sun.

Read the full Q&A, including responses from other non-Brookings experts » (PDF)

Authors

Andrés Rozental

Publication: Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor

Around the Halls: Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s Visit to the United States

Fri, 14 May 2010 09:35:00 -0400

On May 19, Mexican President Felipe Calderon will begin a two-day visit to Washington, D.C., to meet with U.S. President Obama and address a joint meeting of Congress. Experts from around the halls of Brookings weigh in on the significance of a visit that comes during an important time in the U.S.-Mexico relationship. Issues to be discussed include: the violent Mexican drug war raging close to the border, the ever present talk of increased economic cooperation, and the growing immigration controversy.

Looking Long Term in the U.S.-Mexico Relationship
Kevin Casas-Zamora, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Latin America Initiative

It is inevitable that President Calderon’s visit to the U.S. will be dominated by the security situation in Mexico and potential U.S. efforts in assisting Mexico to reassert control over its territory. The list of pending security assignments is well known by now: how to control the southbound tide of guns, how to disrupt the financial flows that grease the wheels of Mexican crime syndicates, and how to accelerate the disbursement of resources committed within the Merida Initiative. This kind of focus is pre-ordained, mostly because Calderon has staked his presidency and place in history on the struggle against organized crime. It is vital for him to have President Obama publicly show his support for the Mexican efforts and to acknowledge, once again, U.S. responsibility in the drug-trafficking maelstrom. While inevitable, the crowding out of other bilateral issues would be unfortunate. From a silly dispute about cross-border trucking that remains unresolved after more than one year, to the noxious effect of the newly-enacted rules against illegal immigrants in Arizona, there are plenty of issues that if left to fester could seriously poison the increasingly tight bonds between both countries. Letting that happen would be a disappointment. It would be great that both presidents showed willingness to broaden the scope of their talks. Whether we think the net balance of NAFTA has been positive or negative (I side with the positive opinion), we have to acknowledge the remarkable courage and vision that presided over its launch in 1994. One can only wish that Obama and Calderon will want to muster that same ability to think big and long term about this most crucial bilateral relationship.

Reducing Violence, Providing Opportunity, and Restoring Hope to Mexico
Vanda Felbab-Brown, Fellow, Foreign Policy, Latin America Initiative

President Felipe Calderon visits Washington during difficult times in Mexico. Since he assumed office three years ago, drug-related violence has resulted in almost 23,000 deaths, with Ciudad Juarez hit especially badly. But violence is increasingly spreading and intensifying in new areas. Other signs of the escalation of violence include the targeting of Mexican, and perhaps even U.S. officials, by the drug gangs.

Nonetheless, the level of U.S.-Mexico cooperation is unprecedented. And the new restructuring of the joint Mexican-U.S. effort against the drug trafficking organizations, the Merida Initiative, is very much on the right track and gives reasons for hope that the struggle against the drug trafficking organizations will be successful. Instead of narrowly targeting the heads of drug trafficking organizations, the new approach, Beyond Merida, is far more multifaceted, placing critical importance on the building of effective civilian institutions, including the police, and addressing the socioeconomic needs of underprivileged segments of Mexico’s society—those that are susceptible to the Mexican drug trafficking organizations. The U.S. and Mexican administrations deserve great credit for this expansion of Merida.

However, several imperative issues remain to be addressed: First, it is critical to bring violence levels down as quickly as possible. The Mexican government cannot be satisfied with statements like “violence is a sign of the policies’ effectiveness” or that “it affects mainly the criminals.” While it may be the drug traffickers killing each other, the bullets flying overhead eviscerate the society underneath. Second, President Calderon needs to build public trust in the new multifaceted approach, since much of the effort, such as improving the judiciary and police units, will require a generation or more. Otherwise, there will be pressures to abandon the difficult reforms underway when he leaves office, and perhaps even temptation to strike deals with the drug traffickers at the local level. Third, Mexico needs to undertake major, but difficult reforms of its political and economic system, and break up the monopolies that hamper job generation even when the country’s GDP is growing; this perpetuates the socioeconomic marginalization of large segments of the population. If hope can be restored to ordinary Mexicans that they can improve their conditions without leaving for the United States or participating in illegal activities, fighting organized crime too will become far easier.

North American Competitiveness Must Be Addressed
Diana Villiers Negroponte, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Latin America Initiative

President Calderon comes to Washington with three tasks:

1.) Gain President Obama’s endorsement for his “war on drugs.”
2.) Define what U.S. government’s commitment to “co-responsibility” in this war means in practice.
3.) Get the U.S. administration to join him in the discussion on climate change since the follow up to Copenhagen will be the Cancun conference next December – a significant meeting for an environmentally committed Mexican president.

But something is missing, namely a discussion on North American competitiveness. Addressing this theme in a mid-term election year is problematic. However, there are two ways to address this with practical, non-sensational programs:

First, let the leaders agree on a timetable to dismantle the barriers for Mexican truck drivers ferrying their cargo within the U.S. Under NAFTA, the U.S. government should allow them access. In pursuit of this, Mexican trucking companies have made significant strides in raising driver safety standards to U.S. standards. In fact, some Mexican trucking companies claim their safety standards are higher. A timetable spread over six years would see a gradual increase of Mexican drivers on U.S. highways and the opportunity to test their safety records. In exchange for this timetable, a commensurate reduction of Mexican tariffs on U.S. products, including wines, hair coloring and perfumes, would occur. These tariffs have hurt U.S. producers, particularly in California and productive areas in Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s district.

Second, both governments have favored the development of “smart borders”, where customs and immigration clearance would be undertaken at the factory and farm gate. With GPS and sealed containers with electronic protection devices, trucks and containers would cross the frontier through a “fast track.” These tracks exist, but truckers wait in line for hours before they can access the “fast lane,” a mile or more before the inspection post. We need private/public partnerships to construct longer “fast lanes” and expanded parking areas for those trucks that require secondary inspection. Both governments should be willing to explore the issuance of bonds to finance the expansion of our border crossings. With pre-clearance, sealed trucks and GPS monitoring, we can speed up the cross border flow of merchandise.

President Obama committed to doubling exports in five years. Currently, two-way trade valued at approximately $650 million crosses the U.S.-Mexico border each day. We can increase this flow through speeding up trans-border crossings. Allowing Mexican truck drivers to use U.S. roads may be interpreted as counter-productive, but more exports require more trucks and more truck drivers. Safety, reliable in-time delivery and good wages should result in a win-win for citizens on both sides of our border.

The Question of Immigration
Andrés Rozental, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy

Arizona’s passage of SB 1070, and its impact on the Mexican community in Arizona, now brings immigration to the forefront of the discussions between United States and Mexico. President Calderon’s decision, since the beginning of his administration over three years ago, to keep silent on U.S. immigration reform and the domestic debate has now backfired with the growing anti-immigrant sentiment that is slowly substituting for the lack of federal action. During his visit to Washington next week, Calderon will address Congress, meet with President Obama and engage with the media. He must vigorously defend the basic rights and freedoms of his countrymen in the U.S.—independent of their immigration status—and reiterate his call for Mexicans to refrain from visiting Arizona. This means reducing the almost exclusive emphasis he has been placing on the Mexico-U.S. security agenda—the fight against organized crime and the war on drugs—and instead make immigration reform a priority. Undoubtedly the U.S. administration would prefer that Mexico continue to have a low profile on this issue, but Calderon’s image—already badly tarnished domestically—and his repeated commitment to protect Mexicans in the U.S., demand that Mexico speak loudly and clearly about the deleterious effects that Arizona’s actions are having on both its relationship with the state, as well as on the entire bilateral agenda. The unprecedented degree of cooperation and trust that has been established between the two countries on security and other issues could be threatened if the immigration question is left to fester with Obama choosing not to invest political capital on reform this year, and if Mexico continues to ignore the issue.

An Opportunity to Discuss Immigration
José Tessada, Post-Doctoral Fellow, Global Economy and Development, Latin America Initiative

President Calderon’s visit to the United States will take place in the midst of heated discussions on immigration policy sparked by Arizona's Senate Bill 1070 (SB 1070). Although the timing is coincidental, it should be seen as an opportunity. Until now, the Mexican government has only expressed some concerns with the U.S. over how Mexican citizens in Arizona might be treated under this new legislation. However, more should be done. The Mexican government cannot ignore the prospects of immigration reform in the U.S. since it has serious ramifications for Mexico.

Specifically, increased enforcement against unauthorized immigrants and a reduction in the number of legal visas would have severe consequences for Mexicans in the U.S. It will be particularly difficult for unauthorized immigrants, but it will also affect families left behind and potential future migrants. Some simple numbers tell us how important migration to the United States is for Mexico. There are currently 11.4 million Mexican-born living in the U.S., which represents 30 percent of all foreign-born populations in the U.S. and is approximately 10 percent of Mexico’s population. Furthermore, according to estimates from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, there are 6.65 million Mexican-born unauthorized immigrants (62 percent of the total unauthorized immigrants) in the United States.

A reduction in current migration flows and/or a return of a significant number of Mexicans currently in the U.S. could put significant pressure on labor markets in Mexico. Moreover, tougher immigration rules would prevent Mexicans from seeking higher wages north of the border.

What can the Mexican government do? Above all, offer their cooperation and coordination to solve the problems that are influencing U.S. public opinion in the immigration issue, mostly violence along the border and drug trafficking. The Mexican government should also ask the U.S. to do its fair share in tackling these problems. Second, the Mexican government needs to show willingness to cooperate with the American government on the immigration issue. After all, Mexicans benefit from the opportunities offered to them by the U.S. The Mexican government should respond accordingly to ensure that immigration reform does not put an end to these opportunities.

Authors

Only the U.S. Can Win War on Drugs

Andrés Rozental and Stanley A. Weiss — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 00:00:00 -0500

Despite a surge of military and police forces across the country, the killings continue – more than 5,000 last year. Some regions are terrorized by a wave of kidnappings, assassinations and beheadings.

Iraq? Afghanistan? Pakistan? Somalia? In fact, the country – which a recent U.S military study warned could be at risk of "a rapid and sudden collapse" – is none other than Mexico. Two years into President Felipe Calderon's war against the drug cartels, and the cartels' ensuing war with each other, this is a nation at war with itself.

To be sure, the government has had its successes. Huge weapons caches have been seized, large tracts of illegal drug crops have been eradicated and an increasing number of cartel kingpins, couriers and foot soldiers have been put behind bars.

But despite these tactical victories, Mexico's fight – attacking the supply-side of the western hemisphere's drug war – will remain an unwinnable war so long as its northern neighbor fails to attack the demand side: Americans' insatiable appetite for illicit drugs.

When then-President-elect Barack Obama met President Calderon in January, he reaffirmed Washington's support for Mexico's heroic efforts. But he should remember Plan Colombia, which has cost American taxpayers $8 billion. While Colombian cartels have been weakened, there has been no significant reduction in the amount of cocaine and other drugs shipped out of Colombia, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

So long as the vast American market for cocaine, heroin and other drugs yields irresistible profits, the cartels will continue taking the risks of producing, transporting and distributing the products their customers want. Even with U.S. support for Mexico's fight – $450 million this year – the cartels will always have more money and guns at their disposal. Even if the U.S.-Mexico border were improbably sealed, the traffickers would find alternate routes to their American customers.

Mexico's war on supply must be matched, once and for all, by a real American war on demand.

Despite decades of a supposed U.S. "war on drugs" – including some of the harshest penalties for drug use in the world – the percentage of Americans using cocaine, heroin, crack, marijuana and methamphetamines has remained largely steady in recent years, according to the latest National Drug Threat Assessment. Given population growth, the number of users has actually increased to 35 million Americans, including the world's highest use rates of cocaine and marijuana.

So how to achieve major reductions in American demand for illegal drugs, as well as the profitability and criminality it fuels?

Seventy-five years after its repeal, Prohibition remains instructive. Like the 13-year ban on alcohol, the illegality of drugs failed to curb demand. Like the bootleggers and gangsterism of that era, today's drug cartels are simply serving popular demand.

As with the repeal of Prohibition, the U.S. must again follow a common-sense approach by thinking the unthinkable: the gradual legalization of some drugs.

For such a change in strategy, the U.S. must recognize that all drugs are not created equal. It is now clear that marijuana and methamphetamines do not have the same harmful effects as cocaine, heroin, opium and other hard drugs. Discriminating among different drugs – as does the new Massachusetts law decriminalizing possession of less than an ounce of marijuana – points the way toward a more rational approach.

At great cost, in blood and treasure, Mexico is fulfilling its responsibility with a war on supply. It's time the U.S. fulfills its responsibility with a real war on demand.

Authors

Andrés Rozental
Stanley A. Weiss

Publication: The Dallas Morning News

The Future of North American Integration : Beyond NAFTA

Peter Hakim and Robert E. Litan, eds. — Thu, 19 Sep 2002 00:00:00 -0400

Brookings Institution Press 2002 129pp.

When it came into force in 1994, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) joined the economic futures of Canada, Mexico, and the United States, with systematic rules governing trade and investment, dispute resolution, and economic relations.

However, economic integration among the three countries extends considerably beyond trade and investment. The NAFTA agreement takes a very narrow view of integration, barely addressing such vital issues as immigration policy and labor markets, the energy sector, environmental protection, and law enforcement.

This volume contains thoughtful discussions about the future of North America by knowledgeable experts from each of the three countries. Robert Pastor has written one of the more comprehensive books on the subject, Toward a North American Community (Institute for International Economics, 2001). Andrés Rozental is an ambassador at large for Mexico and president of Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internationacionales, the country's leading foreign policy association in Mexico. Perrin Beatty is a former foreign minister of Canada and currently the president and CEO of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters.

The governments of Canada, the United States, and Mexico face thorny challenges as they decide whether and how to accelerate smooth, and institutionalize the integration process. Pastor, Rozenthal, and Beatty encourage greater dialogue among the three governments and their citizens, as well as more systematic thinking among policymakers and citizens about the promise and challenges of further North American integration.

This volume considers the promise and challenges of further North American integration, including:

migration, security cooperation, and cross-border commerce in the post-September 11 environment
the establishment of a permanent North American Court on Trade and Investment, to replace the current ad hoc tribunals
the possibility of widening NAFTA to incorporate countries in Central America and the Caribbean
systematic collaboration in dealing with criminal drug trafficking, environmental protection, energy and water management, and transportation, communications and other infrastructure development.

ABOUT THE EDITORS

Peter Hakim

Peter Hakim is the president of the Inter-American Dialogue.

Robert E. Litan

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