Brookings: Experts - Barry J. Naughton

Structural Reforms and China’s Economy

Tue, 01 May 2012 14:00:00 -0400

Event Information

May 1, 2012
2:00 PM - 5:00 PM EDT

Falk Auditorium
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC

The rapid pace of economic development in China over the last 30 years has begun to expose a new set of economic and social challenges. To deal with these challenges, China’s leaders will need to employ a new set of policy tools that may be very different from what has been successful in the past. In addition, China’s leaders must adapt to the growing influence of a broad array of non-state actors. Making these adjustments in the midst of a major transition of China’s political leadership will be no small task.

On May 1, the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings and Caixin Media hosted a conference examining China’s major economic policy challenges, the substance of economic reform measures and the issues concerning their implementation. The first panel examined the reforms China should adopt to avoid the middle-income trap and the growing role of civil society in encouraging economic reforms. The second panel focused on the priorities for significant structural adjustments to address key issues such rising labor costs, low household consumption, rapid urbanization, inefficient domestic investment, and international competition.

Transcript

Event Materials

Participants

Panelists

Chen Zhiwu

Professor of Finance
Yale School of Management

Vikram Nehru

Senior Associate, Asia Program and Bakrie Chair in Southeast Asian Studies
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Zhou Wenzhong

Secretary General
Boao Forum for Asia

Moderator: Hu Shuli

Editor-in-Chief
Caixin Media

Barry Naughton

Professor of Chinese Economy and So Kwanlok Chair of Chinese International Affairs, University of California, San Diego
Nonresident Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution

Wang Tao

Chief Economist
UBS Securities

Zhang Lanlan

Managing Director
CICC US Securities, Inc.

China’s Record on Market Reforms from 2002-2011

Thu, 03 Nov 2011 14:00:00 -0400

Event Information

November 3, 2011
2:00 PM - 4:00 PM EDT

Falk Auditorium
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC

After 25 years of market reforms, China’s economic planners have begun to confront new challenges that are leading them to rethink the country’s traditional export-led growth model in favor of encouraging domestic consumption and managing the sometimes unwelcome side effects of rapid economic growth. Rather than relying on market-based mechanisms, China’s efforts to constrain overheating in key sectors such as banking, real estate and manufacturing have often relied heavily on direct administrative controls and careful coordination of industrial policies.

On November 3, the John L. Thornton China Center will host a discussion evaluating China’s record on economic development and marketization since 2002 and prospects for the future. Panelists will speak about key economic sectors that have been shaped by market forces and non-market interventions followed by a broader discussion on China’s management of macroeconomic growth.

After the program, panelists will take audience questions.

Audio

China’s Record on Market Reforms from 2002-2011

Transcript

Event Materials

Participants

Panelists

Nigel Chalk

Senior Advisor, Asia Pacific Department
China Mission Chief, International Monetary Fund

Nicholas Lardy

Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow
Peterson Institute of International Economics

Fubing Su

Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science
Vassar College

China’s Economic Policy Objectives for the Next Five Years

Tue, 01 Nov 2011 10:00:00 -0400

Event Information

November 1, 2011
10:00 AM - 11:30 AM EDT

Falk Auditorium
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC

China’s 12th five year plan, unveiled in March 2011, sets a master agenda for economic development including top-level policy objectives for the next five years and detailed guidelines for key sectors of the economy. One major objective of the plan is to rebalance the economy, primarily by emphasizing domestic consumption over China’s current model of export-led growth.

On November 1, the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings and The Asia Foundation hosted a discussion on these economic policy objectives, including a close look at China’s efforts to develop a green economy. Cheng Siwei, former vice chairman of the standing committee of the National People's Congress presented his views on China’s economic goals and the new five year plan. Cheng, currently the Chang-Lin Tien distinguished visiting fellow of The Asia Foundation, has played an important role in the economic transformations that have occurred within China over the last twenty years. Following his remarks, Barry Naughton, professor of the Chinese economy and So Kwanlok chair of Chinese international affairs at the University of California, San Diego, offered commentary. Senior Fellow Kenneth Lieberthal, director of the John L. Thornton China Center, provided introductory remarks and moderated the discussion.

After the program, speakers took audience questions.

Participants

Panelists

Cheng Siwei

Chairman, International Finance Forum, Beijing
Chang-lin Tien Distinguished Visiting Fellow, The Asia Foundation

Inflation, Welfare and the Political Business Cycle in China

Barry J. Naughton — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 12:13:00 -0400

INTRODUCTION

Since April, Chinese policymakers have maintained a consistent focus on fighting inflation. April 2011 marked an important turning point from the policy stance maintained through most of 2010, during which policymakers delayed tough action and adopted a wait-and-see attitude on the dangers of inflation. Although policy has been resolute since April, the delays had real costs. Inflationary pressures have been allowed to take root, making the effort to control inflation costlier and more difficult than it needed to be. The consumer price index grew 5.4 percent in March, which surpassed China’s traditional 5 percent “red line” and immediately triggered the more resolute policy line. Despite the new seriousness, the inflation rate has remained high, and even drifted upward to 6.5 percent in July.

These economic conditions have an immediate effect on the political environment. Inflation is very unpopular in China, and when price increases are this evident, it provokes frustration and anger, particularly among middle-class urban dwellers. Indeed, immediately after the inflation figures for March were published, Shanghai truck drivers staged a three-day strike over soaring fuel prices and port charges. Although the protest was defused with concessions on port charges, it seemed to initiate a season of discontent. As the summer passed, a series of incidents (covered in the official press) contributed to the unsettled public mood: two bridges collapsed; the offshore oil industry encountered spills and fires; and the new Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail line encountered four separate “glitches” in the first 10 days of operation. All these incidents were overshadowed by the shocking crash of the high-speed train near Wenzhou that killed 40 passengers on July 26. Until open reporting was halted by propaganda officials four days later, an outpouring of shock, grief, and outrage gave eloquent expression to the public mood.

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Authors

Barry J. Naughton

Publication: China Leadership Monitor

In China, the Turning Point in Housing

Barry J. Naughton — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Abstract: China reached an important turning point in housing policy on April 17, 2010. Policy shifted from stimulating growth to controlling speculative demand for housing, as well as increasing the supply of affordable housing. The central government has pushed the policies on reluctant local government officials, who are dependent on land-sales revenues and closely intertwined with real estate interests. Despite the tensions in implementation, central government commitment to the policy turn appears strong, and it is likely it will be sustained.

INTRODUCTION

China reached an important economic turning point on April 17, 2010. This was the day the State Council issued the “New 10 Articles” designed to cool off the property market. This was one of the most widely anticipated turning points in memory: people have been waiting for it for months. One could almost say that ever since the scale and uncontrolled nature of China’s credit expansion became evident, in the first quarter of 2009, people have been wondering how and when it would be brought under control. Since mid-year 2009, the People’s Bank of China had been more or less openly calling for more aggressive action to slow credit growth, and since December 2009, had begun to drain liquidity from the system. In November 2009, the office of the Finance and Economics Leadership Small Group (LSG) had requested new data and an action plan from the Ministry of Housing and Construction, which traditionally tends to support construction interests. The LSG office then issued a report to Vice-Premier Li Keqiang—indicating his increasingly prominent role in coordinating economic policy—that stressed the importance of stabilizing housing prices, and for the first time in conjunction with housing policy raised the S-words: social stability. After that, statements by government leaders discussing the problem of high and rising housing prices became common.

Read the full article at hoover.org »

Authors

Barry J. Naughton

Publication: China Leadership Monitor