Brookings: Experts - Amy Liu

Going Global: Greater Houston’s Economic Future

Wed, 15 May 2013 13:30:00 -0400

Event Information

May 15, 2013
12:30 PM - 2:00 PM CDT

Baker Hall
Rice University, James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy
6100 Main Street
Houston, TX 77005

As the United States emerges from the Great Recession, it is clear that the nation’s economy must be purposefully restructured from one focused inward and characterized by excessive consumption and debt to one that is globally engaged and driven by production and innovation. A growing chorus of leaders is calling for a new growth model, one that creates more and better jobs by engaging rising global demand and attracting global talent and capital. These leaders recognize that only by harnessing the power of cities and metropolitan areas can the country hope to foster job growth in the near term and restructure the economy for the long haul.

On May 15, the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings and JPMorgan Chase hosted a forum at Rice University, “Going Global: Greater Houston’s Economic Future,” the second in a series of domestic and international forums being convened this year by the Global Cities Initiative. This is the second year of the five-year initiative. The forum explores how metropolitan-led economic growth—including global trade and investment—are important for job creation, and how Metropolitan Houston can leverage its position in the global market.

Speakers and panels provided context on the region’s position in the global marketplace and offered insight into how area leaders can work together with international partners to expand global trade and enhance Houston’s economic prosperity.

Join the conversation on Twitter with hashtag #GlobalCities. Photos courtesy of John Everett.

Roundtable Presentations:

View Bruce Katz's presentation on Houston's next economy »
Download Marek Gotman’s presentation on workforce development (PDF) »
Download Amy Liu's presentation on regional export planning (PDF) »

Bruce Katz, Brookings Vice President & Founding Director, Metropolitan Policy Program

Gina Luna, Chairman of JPMorgan Chase for Houston

Bruce Katz, Brookings Vice President & Founding Director, Metropolitan Policy Program

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Moderator

Amy Liu

Co-Director and Senior Fellow, Metropolitan Policy Program

Panelists

Bruce Katz

Vice President and Director, Metropolitan Policy Program
The Adeline M. and Alfred I. Johnson Chair in Urban and Metropolitan Policy

Honorable Peter Ammon

Ambassador

Honorable Richard M. Daley

Former Mayor of Chicago
Chairman

Dr. David Leebron

President

Gina Luna

Houston Market President

Amy Liu

Co-Director and Senior Fellow, Metropolitan Policy Program

David McClanahan

President and CEO

Going Global: Boosting Metro Atlanta's Economic Future

Wed, 20 Mar 2013 11:30:00 -0400

Event Information

March 20, 2013
11:30 AM - 2:00 PM EDT

Historic Academy of Medicine
Georgia Institute of Technology
875 West Peachtree Street NW
Atlanta, GA 30309

On March 19, the Metropolitan Policy program at Brookings and JPMorgan Chase hosted a forum at the Georgia Institute of Technology, “Going Global: Boosting Metro Atlanta’s Economic Future,” the first in a series of domestic and international forums being convened this year by the Global Cities Initiative. This is the second year of the five-year initiative. The forum explored how metropolitan-led economic growth—including global trade and investment—are important for job creation, and how Metropolitan Atlanta can leverage its position in the global market.

Roundtable Presentations:
View Bruce Katz's presentation on Atlanta's next economy »
View Adie Tomer's presentation on global aviation »
View Amy Liu's presentation on global trade »

Other Resources:
For more information on the Global Cities Initiative, please visit the project's homepage.

Read the forum's press release » (PDF)
Read the forum's program » (PDF)

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David Balos

Market Manager, Middle Market Banking

GCI Atlanta Roundtable: Atlanta’s Regional Export Plan

Amy Liu — Tue, 19 Mar 2013 00:00:00 -0400

Editor’s Note: On March 19, 2013, as part of the Metro Atlanta convening of the Global Cities Initiative, Brookings’s Amy Liu, senior fellow and co-director of the Metropolitan Policy Program, led an introductory meeting for targeted stakeholders to develop and implement an Atlanta Regional Export Plan, an initiative that was formally announced by Mayor Kasim Reed at the GCI Atlanta forum the following day.

Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program - Global Cities Initiative Export Roundtable - Atlanta, GA from Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program

Authors

Amy Liu

The Innovative Metropolis: Fostering Economic Competitiveness through Sustainable Urban Design

Thu, 21 Feb 2013 09:00:00 -0500

Event Information

February 21, 2013
9:00 AM - 4:30 PM EST

Falk Auditorium
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

Register for the Event
As global cities have embraced sustainable urban design and entrepreneurism, their strategies can serve as a source of inspiration and new knowledge to U.S. cities and beyond. By pairing best practices from international metros with their U.S. counterparts, the Sam Fox School of Design & Visual Arts at the Washington University in St. Louis has developed a series of case studies that examine the urgent challenges of an increasingly urbanized planet, focusing on the development of sustainable products, services, technology, and land use patterns following the economic recession.

On February 21, the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings and the Sam Fox School’s Master of Urban Design Program hosted an all-day forum which explored the intersection between sustainable urban design and economic growth while discussing the implications for design and practice. The event also highlighted policies that have enabled individual cities to become successful models of sustainability and examined specific design and policy issues through the lenses of economy, government, climate and social systems.

Mark Wrighton, chancellor of the Washington University in St. Louis, welcomed the forum participants and audience members, followed by a presentation from Ricky Burdett, professor of urban studies at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Panel discussions covered transportation; environmental and building technologies; and adaptation and renewal. The program closed with a presentation from Mohsen Mostafavi, dean and the Alexander and Victoria Wiley professor of design at Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design, followed by a reception and respondent discussion.

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A Program to Boost U.S. Exports and Trade Capacity

Amy Liu — Tue, 12 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0500

Despite the size and growth of consumer demand outside of the United States, too many firms and too many parts of the U.S. remain focused on domestic markets and are missing out on opportunities to innovate, expand and reach a wider consumer base around the world, says Amy Liu, senior fellow and co-director of the Metropolitan Policy Program. Liu—in a new report, “Strengthen Federalism: Establish a Regional Export Accelerator Challenge (REACH) Grant Program to Boost U.S. Exports and Trade Capacity,” co-authored with Brad McDearman and Marek Gootman—writes that some markets like Syracuse, New York are successfully innovating to meet global market demands. With a little help from the federal government, she argues, metros and regions all across the country can produce similar results.

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A Program to Boost U.S. Exports and Trade Capacity

Authors

Amy Liu

Strengthen Federalism: Establish a Regional Export Accelerator Challenge (REACH) Grant Program to Boost U.S. Exports and Trade Capacity

Amy Liu, Brad McDearman and Marek Gootman — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0500

The Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings proposes the creation of a Regional Export Accelerator Challenge (REACH) grant program to support the development and start-up implementation of metro export plans. This new, temporary competitive grant program will operate most effectively alongside a reauthorized STEP or a similar program dedicated to increasing state capacity in the trade system. See also Amy Liu's related op-ed, Don't Ease Up on Exports (from TheHill.com).

To increase U.S. exports—particularly by the small and mid-size companies that drive domestic job creation—the federal government should initiate a short-term competitive Regional Export Accelerator Challenge (REACH) grant program to support public-private partnerships working to launch customized regional export plans. Metropolitan export strategies address a major need in the current export support system by leveraging the knowledge and connections of local economic development leaders to proactively identify firms and sectors with greatest export potential, coordinate fragmented export assistance providers, and focus limited resources for maximum benefit. This outreach to new and under-exporters is a necessary component of any broader effort to reorganize or restructure the federal trade system. By making a small investment at the metro level, the federal government can empower a network of regional leaders, working in conjunction with their states, to bring the benefits of global engagement to firms and workers in many regions of the United States. The REACH program would be a modest $25 million grant program executed over three grant-making cycles. As Congress and the Obama administration work together to put the United States on a sound fiscal and economic course, they must also ensure that the nation remains a strong force in the global marketplace

Background

New global dynamics, including the emergence of new markets, the rise of the global middle class, expansion of global supply chains, and increased international connectivity, present tangible opportunities for U.S. economic growth through exports and trade. The importance of trade in the global economy will only deepen as world markets become more integrated. The level of global trade between countries has tripled since 1950, and more recently, grew from $15.5 trillion in 2009 to nearly $18 trillion by 2011.

Boosting U.S. exports would directly benefit firms, workers, and the national economy overall. The small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that export generally experience greater revenue growth than non-exporters and weathered the recession better than non-exporters. One study found that SME manufacturing exporters grew revenues between 2005 and 2009 by 37 percent while non-exporting manufacturers experienced a 7 percent decline in revenues during the same time period.

In addition, suppliers to exporting firms benefit from trade as well. Research shows that on average, U.S.-based multinational firms purchase $3 billion in goods and services from 6,000 small businesses each year. One net result: the production of exported goods and services preserves and creates jobs, both directly and indirectly in the supply chain, on the order of 5,400 jobs for every $1 billion in additional goods exports. Furthermore, export sector jobs pay well, with workers earning 10 to 20 percent higher wages than those in comparable non-exporting jobs for every $10 billion in sales in a metropolitan export industry.

Recognizing this global moment, government, business, and civic leaders in states and metro areas across the country are adapting their job creation and economic growth strategies to take advantage of the benefits of global trade.

Read the paper » (PDF)

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A Program to Boost U.S. Exports and Trade Capacity

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Image Source: © David W Cerny / Reuters

The Federal Government, States, and Cities — The All of the Above Disaster Response

Amy Liu — Fri, 02 Nov 2012 12:30:00 -0400

Hurricane Sandy struck just before Election Day. The political machine couldn't help itself. Governor Christie "has gone soft" on President Obama. Candidate Mitt Romney wants disaster assistance to be taken "from the federal government and [sent] back to the states," his opponents cry. And the right charges President Obama and the Democrats with using Sandy “to justify a bigger federal government.”

We have hit another political low. As hundreds of families remain displaced from their homes or stranded without power, disaster recovery falls prey to the tired question of who can govern it best. The reality is that rebuilding New York, coastal New Jersey, and all the communities along the unfortunate path of Hurricane Sandy will require the close coordination of federal, state, and local governments, and private sector partners, no matter the political stripes of the leaders involved.

The question is: Has our nation’s response to major disasters improved since Hurricane Katrina, the last time a storm left such a catastrophic mark on the United States?

Hurricane Katrina forced our leaders to confront what was structurally broken about government’s response to large-scale disasters. Simply, the nation didn’t have an adequate system for dealing with them. The Stafford Act provides the core foundation for national emergency disaster relief but is generally ill-equipped to support major catastrophes, including their colossal recovery needs. Yet hurricanes Katrina and Sandy provide a stark reminder that large-scale disasters are happening more frequently. Further, such massive disasters require not just emergency aid to families and the restoration of basic public services. They also trigger the simultaneous need for short- and longer-term resources to rebuild bridges, tunnels, homes, hospitals, neighborhoods, and other key facets of community and economic life. This is complex and costly work, requiring coordination across many actors and across a vast geography of destruction.

After six years learning from the hardworking people of New Orleans and southern Louisiana post-Katrina, and others who dedicate their lives to disaster recovery, let me offer just a few basic tenets of a productive post-disaster response system.

The first is that the federal government matters. This may make small government advocates cringe, but the truth is that Washington is essential to the immediate aftermath of a major disaster. The federal government is the only level of government capable of providing timely and predictable resources and capacity, irrespective of where disaster strikes, when state and local resources are often thin and uneven. The federal government also has the ability to address disasters at scale since most catastrophic impacts span multiple states and municipalities (Sandy impacted 10 states and the District of Columbia). They must set the rules for disaster assistance and make every attempt to provide flexible tools for states and localities. This is because…

All post-disaster recovery is local. Disasters strike large urban centers and small towns. Thus it is ultimately incumbent upon states and localities to prioritize how best to deploy government, private sector, and philanthropic resources in the rebuilding of their communities in ways that reflect local will and vision. State leaders also aim to provide local leaders with a wide range of tools and resources in recovery and to serve as coordinator and broker between jurisdictions, especially in states with many small towns and cities such as New Jersey.

The high number of categorical federal programs for post-disaster recovery demands maximum flexibility to empower state and local decisionmaking. By one count, there are more than 50 post-disaster recovery-related federal programs. This creates enormous headaches for state and local leaders. First, post-disaster recovery is so complex and comprehensive that solutions don’t fit neatly into program pots or silos. Second, local leaders spend tremendous amount of time trying to figure out which program fits their recovery needs and tailoring their response to federal program rules when, in reality, the reverse should be true: federal programs should be bending to local circumstances. Third, there is a steep learning curve with these federal programs, hindering the speed and nimbleness of local and state responses.

So, have things improved since Katrina? Yes. In response to a mandate by the Post-Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006, FEMA released a new National Response Framework (NRF) to clarify the roles and responsibilities of key agencies and levels of government, and the resources available, for emergency response to all hazards. The Obama administration went further by releasing a parallel National Disaster Recovery Framework to create clear guidance to the recovery-side of the emergency response, a needed first. This framework makes enormous strides in empowering states and localities and making sure federal programs work better for a whole range of catastrophic circumstances.

So, the cautious good news for New York and New Jersey, now declared major disaster areas by the president, is that these states may be benefiting from concerted federal efforts to not repeat the mistakes from the 2005 hurricanes.

But this is just the beginning of a longer rebuilding effort. And next week’s election could change the nature of the federal response. No matter the outcome, our leaders need to set aside politics to ensure that government works together and efficiently for the people and businesses most impacted by Hurricane Sandy.

Authors

Amy Liu

Image Source: © Michelle McLoughlin / Reuters

Ten Steps to Delivering a Successful Metropolitan Export Plan

Brad McDearman and Amy Liu — Wed, 01 Aug 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Many leaders in states, cities, and metropolitan areas across the country are exploring ways to help their firms tap into expanding markets worldwide to grow jobs at home. This brief serves as a how-to-guide for private, nonprofit, and government leaders in metro areas who are interested in developing effective action-oriented metropolitan export plans and initiatives customized to their region’s unique assets and capacities. It builds on lessons learned from a one-year pilot (2011–2012) where the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings collaborated with leaders in four metro areas to develop localized export plans.

The 10 key steps suggested to regions seeking to deliver successful metropolitan export plans are:

Go Metro to Go Global — Markets are regional and export strategies foster regional collaboration in economic development.

Organize for Success — The planning effort must have the stated commitment of local leaders and be well-organized at the outset to create a culture change in economic development practice.

Produce a Data-Driven Market Scan — A credible export plan is built on a solid foundation of data and information about the region’s export performance and potential.

Capture Local Market Insight — At the heart of the local market assessment is direct input from firms and service providers obtained through surveys and one-on-one interviews.

Champion Exports Now — Promoting and communicating the importance of exports to the region’s long-term economic future is critical to ensure the export plan is embraced.

Develop a Customized Export Plan — A clear, easy-to-read document will serve as a strong vehicle for galvanizing stakeholders to act on and support the exports opportunity.

Prepare for Implementation — A detailed implementation (or business) plan that delineates how the export plan will be executed must include details on deliverables, phasing, budgets, and the division of labor among lead organizations.

Identify and Promote Policy Priorities — Metro leaders should articulate and advance a state and federal policy agenda that will foster an environment for enabling the region’s exports to thrive.

Track and Publicize Progress — The metro export team will need to identify metrics that are most realistic to collect locally and dedicate resources to maintaining, analyzing, and reporting progress.

Mainstream Exports into Economic Development — For a region’s economy to fully benefit from international trade, exports must be an integral part of a multi-pronged economic growth agenda that includes innovation, transportation and logistics, and global talent.

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Geography of H-1B Workers

Wed, 18 Jul 2012 09:00:00 -0400

Event Information

July 18, 2012
9:00 AM - 12:30 PM EDT

Falk Auditorium
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, DC 20036

This year, it took only ten weeks for employers to reach the nation’s overall cap on the H-1B visas they need to hire immigrant workers in specialty occupations—three times faster than last year. Yet debates over the program suffer from a lack of information about where demand for H-1B workers is highest, and the role that the program plays in addressing local labor market needs.

On July 18, the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings hosted a forum presenting a regional analysis of the H-1B visa program, highlighting how foreign-born skilled immigrants in the United States contribute to the country’s metropolitan economies. Panelists from the public and private sectors discussed the report’s findings and their potential impact on current economic and immigration debates.

After each discussion, panelists took audience questions. Participants joined in the discussion on Twitter using the hashtag #metroH1B.

Following this event, Brookings's Jill Wilson answered questions on the H-1B visa program in a live POLITICO web chat.

Neil Ruiz's event presentation and remarks are available. In addition, in a video previewing this event, he describes the demand for skilled labor.

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Going Global: The Future of Metro Economies

Amy Liu — Fri, 13 Jul 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Editor's Note: During the 56th Annual Sister Cities International Conference in Jacksonville, Amy Liu presented an assessment of the U.S. economy and how metro areas, specifically sister cities, can collaborate to boost exports and better connect with global markets, thus creating more jobs locally.

I am honored to be joining you for your 56th annual conference.

Much has changed in the world in the last 56 years. I have no doubt that Sister Cities has adapted nimbly to those changing times, strengthening relationships in new cities as sleeping markets rise and as civil and economic unrests demand different levels of diplomacy and partnership.

But I believe I have been invited here today to urge you to keep evolving. As the conference title states, it is a “new era.” And we must adjust accordingly.

First, jobs, jobs, jobs. The continued sluggishness of the U.S. and global economy makes this urgent. But, I will tell you that this is not just a flashing moment. Our nation and our regional economies face long-term structural challenges.

Second, global engagement. To thrive, our economy needs to be more globally integrated, not less. We must export and trade in higher volumes if we hope to accelerate innovation in American goods and services and grow jobs here at home.

Third, cities. We are in a global urban age. Not just because the majority of world inhabitants now live in cities. But because cities and metro areas are the engines of the global economy. If they prosper, our nation will prosper.

Thus, Sister Cities is uniquely positioned to act on these three critical moments in ways few organization are such situated. Your networks and relationships are vast. Your global intelligence is deep. Embracing economic exchanges will help your local economies—and even your organization—excel in the new global economic order.

Let me be clear, times have changed. The U.S. economy is undergoing a major economic restructuring which demands a structural response. The Great Recession was not the same as its predecessors. The job loss this time was steeper, the impact deeper, and the recovery slower because this was a structural recession.

The core structural problem: Nearly all of the incremental job growth over the last two decades came from non-tradable sectors, such as real estate, retail, and government. This was the eye-popping stat issued by Nobel economist Michael Spence. In short, we stopped innovating and producing jobs in value-added industries that create wealth, grow local industries, and make our American marketplace distinct from our competitors.

The other big structural shift: Economic growth is increasingly taking place outside the U.S.

In 2010, the combined global GDP of the BIC nations surpassed that of the U.S. for the first time, making up one-fifth of the world economy. That shift is expected to accelerate in the coming years while the U.S. share of global GDP is forecasted to stay the same.

The rise of the BICs is also in part a reflection of the rise of global metros. Rapid industrialization has been matched by rapid urbanization. More than half of the world’s population now lives in cities, and that share is expected to grow to 60 percent in 2030 and 70 percent by 2050.

With rapid urbanization comes the rise of the global middle class which is driving the growth of consumption. OECD predicts that, despite the recession, consumption is expected to rise from $21 trillion today to $31 trillion by 2020, mostly due to the growth in Asia and Latin America.

We view these trends as less a threat but a market opportunity.

Against this back drop, let me tell you what the data is telling us. The winners in the next economy will be those who strengthen global assets and tap new sources of aggregate demand.

The leaders in the next economy will innovate in manufacturing. While manufacturing has contracted as a share of the overall economy, it is becoming leaner and more advanced. Thus, manufacturing jobs are recovering faster than the economy as a whole, at 2.3 percent in the third quarter of last year compared to 1.4 percent nationally. The manufacturing sector has added about 350,000 jobs in the last two years.

For those who remain skeptical about U.S. competitive advantage in manufacturing, this is not the industry of yesterday. The U.S. is the 3rd largest manufacturing exporter in the world b/c manufacturing remains a critical part of our innovation cycle. U.S. manufacturing employs 35 percent of all of our scientists and engineers, invests 68 percent of all R&D; and generates 90 percent of all patents.

Leaders will also need to innovate in services. In fact, services, such as business consulting, education, architecture and planning, are the fastest growing segment of our export economy, and the U.S. has a trade surplus in services.

Within the services sector, expenditures of foreign students in U.S. colleges is growing steadily. We now have more than 720,000 international students studying in the United States, led by those from China, India and Korea. That sector represents $21.2 billion in U.S. service exports.

Leaders in the next economy will also invent and deploy clean economy goods and services.

Rapid urbanization worldwide has pushed up the global demand for environmentally friendly goods and services, such as energy efficient appliances and building technologies, smart grid, sustainable land use planning and infrastructure, and organic foods. We are meeting that demand. In fact the U.S. has a sizeable clean economy, representing 2.7 million jobs.

The upshot: U.S. clean economy products generated $54 billion in exports, two times more value per job than the typical U.S. export.

Additionally, the regions that prosper will be those that take advantage of global demand. The post-recession reality has made that more urgent.

According to our recent Global MetroMonitor, 90 percent of the fastest growing markets among the 200 largest world cities were located outside of the U.S., Western Europe, and earthquake-ravaged Japan.

In fact, there are more than 20 markets around the globe that did not experience this last recession or have already fully recovered—Shanghai, Shenzhen, Mumbai in Asia, Istanbul in Europe, and Santiago and Buenos Aires in Latin America.

Bottom line: If we are to grow, our firms must look outside of the U.S. and tap emerging markets and global consumption as a source of growth here at home.

And here is the evidence: Those firms who embraced international sales drove our economic recovery. Exports were responsible for 46 percent of U.S. GDP growth between 2010 and 2011—which is remarkable since exports make up only 13 percent of the GDP of the U.S.—compared to much higher shares in China, Canada, and the entire EU.

Further, that post-recession export growth generated 600,000 new jobs in 2010 alone.

Going global pays off too for small and mid-sized firms. Those manufacturers who exported saw their revenues grow, by 37 percent, through 2009, compared to non-exporters who saw their revenues decline by 7 percent.

Selling globally simply makes good business sense.

Second, it will be metro areas that will drive the transition to the next economy.

Metro areas are the engines of the global economy b/c they aggregate and integrate the very market assets that drive growth. Even though the 100 largest metro areas sit on just 12 percent of the nation’s land area, they dominate in innovation, by attracting 94 percent of the nation’s venture capital. They are the producers of our trade economy, generating 75 percent of all services exports. And they are the hubs of supply chains and goods movements, handling 82 percent of the nation’s air freight.

As a result of those assets, the 100 largest metro areas generate 75 percent of the nation’s GDP.

This is not some coastal phenomenon. In fact, metro areas generate the majority of economic output in 47 of the 50 states, including such traditionally “rural” states as Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, and Arkansas.

And metro areas generate the majority of export activities in 30 out 50 states.

The sizeable role of agricultural products in exports explains why metro export share in states is smaller. But even here, our cities and metro areas play an important role, generating nearly one quarter of U.S. agricultural exports. This is not a surprise given that there are rural parts of many metro areas. In fact more than half of all rural residents in the U.S. live inside our metro areas.

And export activities do vary by metro area, reinforcing the importance of customized approaches to boosting exports and trade. For instance, here are three different metro areas, arrayed by size, Chicago, San Antonio, and here Jacksonville.

Let’s start with Chicago. It has by far the largest export volume at $53 billion, ranking it third in the nation among metros. But, looking down vertically to export growth, leaders here may not be happy that exports grew only modestly at 11.8 percent, ranking it only 34th nationally.

San Antonio, which has a strong sister cities and trade promotion effort, should be thrilled that it had the seventh fastest export growth post recession, at a rate of 15.5 percent. But the share of its economy that comes from trade is quite low, at only 7.9 percent, far below the national average of 13 percent, ranking it 79th nationally. That means there may be much more work to do to ensure that more parts of the economy are participating in global trade.

And Jacksonville, a port city, is handling tons of goods movements at its port. But it may be shipping everyone else’s goods globally, versus those goods made by firms and workers in Jacksonville. An export strategy here would help its own area firms contribute to greater export volume, and improving the share of the economy directly benefiting from trade, which currently ranks the metro area 90th in the nation in this regard.

The size of a metro area’s manufacturing base can explain some of the export trends there. With manufacturers contributing 61 percent of the nation’s export economy, the more manufacturers a region has, the more likely it can take advantage of global trade.

Chicago has a high number and share of manufacturing jobs, perhaps explaining its relatively high export volume and export intensity.

San Antonio and Jacksonville are large services economies with small shares made up of manufacturers.

Yet San Antonio’s surge in manufacturing jobs recently, ranking it 20th nationally, may explain some of the export growth trends as well.

The bottom line is that understanding your economic starting point is key to global economic success.

That leads me to my final point: The Sister Cities program and members can help metro economies better tap the benefits of global trade.

In my work and travels, I have heard an increasing drumbeat of requests for how local and regional leaders can work with their Sister Cities affiliates to coordinate and join up efforts to grow jobs and economic opportunity.

Where is the demand coming from? First, the president launched a national challenge to double exports in five years. And the president’s cabinet agencies, led by Commerce, have been working to forge partnerships with state, local, and corporate leaders to meet this national goal.

At the same time, Brookings launched the Metro Export Initiative. That included a signature report, “Export Nation,” that tracks the export performance of the 100 largest metro areas, and a collaboration with four metro areas—greater Los Angeles, Portland, Minneapolis-St Paul, and Syracuse/Central New York—each of which have formally launched their own metro export plans.

Those four metro export plans in turn inspired the U.S. Conference of Mayors to embrace global engagement as a key platform. Last year, as chair of USCM, Mayor Villaraigosa announced a metro export challenge, urging 25 cities to lead and adopt a metro export plan in the next 18 months.

So they did. This past April, Mayor Emanuel announced a plan to double exports in five years. One key partner in their export strategy? The Sister Cities program.

Last month, the entrepreneurial mayors of Louisville and Lexington, KY joined forces to announce an export plan for the Bluegrass Region. The goal: to increase by 50 percent the number of firms those are selling goods abroad.

And more local and regional efforts will come on line. The question is: Is Sister Cities prepared to be a partner?

So what is in a metro export plan? Let’s take a closer look at a few of the plans that have been launched.

What I like about these plans is that it exemplifies exactly why you cannot double exports nationally from the top but instead from the bottom up. While all four metro areas set a goal of doubling exports in five years, each resulted in very different strategies to meet that goal, building on their unique competitive advantages.

Simply, there is no one size fits all approach to doubling exports.

Portland: Two interesting strategies here. First, they learned that nearly two thirds of the region’s exports come from Intel and the computer/electronics sector. While the global company does not need export assistance, the regional leaders made it their top priority to ensure that Portland remains a competitive location for the computer electronics industry, perhaps by strengthening its supply chain, as the sector is a major source of export-related job growth there. This fourth strategy, “we build green cities,” an intentional approach to target and promote a suite of goods and services on a brand they are known for globally— sustainability—including sustainable land use, design and planning, EV technology, clean energy buses, and transit cars.

And these are the diverse groups involved in designing and executing the plan.

Syracuse, NY: A radically different economy, dominated by no Fortune 500 firms but small- and mid-sized firms. Radical under-exporters. Two strengths … very high service exports because of eds and meds, and close proximity to Canada. Embedded in the third strategy, is a goal to market quality health care at their top university hospitals to Canadians who want more choice and speed in catastrophic and emergency care.

In the next few weeks, Brookings will release a guide for leaders like yourselves on how you can produce your own export plans. It will include detailed 10 steps you can take and give you data tools and resources to make the task easier. Look for it on our website in coming weeks.
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For these plans to be effective requires the right leadership at the table. No single organization, like Sister Cities, can undertake an export strategy on their own. Only 1 percent of American firms sell a product or service abroad. To make inroads on global trade engagement requires a culture shift, as you well know, across many institutions and programs to break out of our historic insularity. Thus, government at all levels, businesses and regional economic development groups, universities and their international business programs, and ports who are also on front lines of goods movement— all these groups must be working together to change market behavior toward greater international sales and greater global fluency.

And while I’ve spent a lot of time talking about exports, exports is only one piece of a larger global economic strategy. To be truly effective on the global stage, we need to continue to innovate in goods and services. We need skilled workers to adopt and lead that innovation. We need to leverage our international students and immigrant entrepreneurs because they are naturally globally aware, fluent, and with ties to a foreign market. We certainly need two-way trade and investment. And we need a competitive air and freight infrastructure network. In short, we need a comprehensive approach and Sister Cities, and cities in general, can act in many ways to help their regional economies be more globally integrated.

Thus, there are other models and initiatives out there, beyond metro export plans, that exemplify the continuum of global economic interventions, many of which have been showcased at this conference. China-SF, launched by the city of San Francisco but is now a stand alone entity, is a city to city based program, with three offices in China that focuses on everything from policy innovation exchanges, university exchanges, FDI, and a new partnership with SF Made to link San Francisco manufacturers to Chinese markets.

USC has an MBA Exports Champion program that not only deploys talented business school students to foreign firms abroad, but to U.S. firms interested in exporting. These students help them conduct market research and help businesses integrate international sales into their short- and long-term business plans.

In closing, to move forward economically, we must go back to our historic roots, to a time when the global economy evolved before the rise of nation states when historical trade routes flowed through cities like the 15th century Silk Road that connected Asian cities and the silk, tea, and spices they produced to cities in Europe, the Mediterranean, and Africa.

Sister Cities could be our century’s new global ambassadors, forging closer economic ties and partnerships between world cities. This would be the fullest expression of your motto: Connect globally. Thrive Locally.

I hope you rise to that aspiration.

Thank you.

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Amy Liu

Publication: Sister Cities International 56th Annual Conference

Image Source: © Shannon Stapleton / Reuters

Going Global: Boosting Greater Miami's Economic Future

Tue, 19 Jun 2012 08:30:00 -0400

Event Information

June 19, 2012
8:30 AM - 2:00 PM EDT

Newman Alumni Center at the University of Miami
6200 San Amaro Drive
Coral Gables, FL 33146

The Great Recession stalled the U.S. economy and virtually reset the world economic map with most of the growth concentrated in the rising nations—and the urban and metropolitan areas—of Asia and Latin America. U.S. urban and metropolitan areas need to reorient their economies toward greater engagement in the global marketplace in order to create more and better jobs, spur global demand abroad and attract global talent and capital at home. The Global Cities Initiative—a joint project of Brookings and JPMorgan Chase—aims to help leaders in U.S. metropolitan areas reorient their economies toward greater engagement in world markets.

On June 18 and 19, the Metropolitan Policy program at Brookings and JPMorgan Chase hosted a forum at the University of Miami, “Going Global: Boosting Miami’s Economic Future,” the third in a series of domestic and international forums being convened this year by the Global Cities Initiative. The forum explored how metropolitan-led economic growth—including global trade and investment—are important for job creation, and how Miami can leverage its position in the global market.

Speakers and panels provided context on the region’s position in the global marketplace and offered insight into how metropolitan leaders can work together and with international partners to expand world-wide business opportunities and global trade and investment, and enhance the region’s economic prosperity. The Greater Miami metro is a sophisticated global market with a significant export profile. With potential for further economic growth, it is the gateway for one-third of totally U.S./Latin American trade value.

Materials from the event can be downloaded from the upper right side of this page.

Related reports:

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Going Global: Boosting Greater Miami's Economic Future

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Going Global: Boosting Ohio's Economic Future

Wed, 09 May 2012 09:00:00 -0400

Event Information

May 9, 2012
9:00 AM - 12:00 PM EDT

Online

1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC

In the aftermath of the Great Recession, major U.S. urban and metropolitan areas need to fully engage in the global marketplace in order to create more and better jobs, spur global demand abroad and attract global talent and capital at home. The Global Cities Initiative—a joint project of Brookings and JPMorgan Chase—aims to help leaders in U.S. metropolitan areas reorient their economies toward greater engagement in world markets.

On May 9, the Metropolitan Policy program at Brookings and JPMorgan Chase hosted a live webcast of “Going Global: Boosting Ohio’s Economic Future,” the second in a series of domestic and international forums being convened this year by the Global Cities Initiative. The forum explore how metropolitan-led economic growth—including global trade and investment—are important for job creation, and how Ohio can leverage its position in the global market.

"Locating American Manufacturing: Trends in the Geography of Production", a report by Howard Wial, Susan Helper, and Timothy Krueger, was released at the event.

Video

Boosting Ohio's Economic Future

Event Materials

Participants

Panelists

Dr. Gordon Gee

President

Bruce Katz

Honorable Michael B. Coleman

Mayor

Honorable Richard M. Daley

Former Mayor

Amy Liu

Denyse Ferguson

Senior Vice President, Cincinnati USA Regional Chamber
Executive Director, Cincinnati USA Partnership

Alex Fischer

President and CEO

Mark Kvamme

President and Interim CIO

Brad Whitehead

President

Peter Scher

Executive Vice President, Head of Corporate Responsibility

Honorable Peter Ammon

Henry Cialone

President and CEO

Going Global: The Future of Metro Economies

Amy Liu — Fri, 04 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Editor’s Note: During the opening breakfast event for Los Angeles’ 86th Annual World Trade Week, Amy Liu delivered a presentation and remarks describing how the region can build on its local assets to boost exports.

It is a real honor to be asked to help you kick off your 86th Annual World Trade Week. After 86 years, it is not a surprise that this is a region that is quite globally aware and globally engaged, thanks to the leadership of the L.A. Area Chamber, the L.A. and Long Beach ports, the city, and many, many others.

Recent speakers have come before you reinforcing the importance of the trade economy and the critical need to modernize the trade infrastructure here in the region and the state, building a truly effective freight/logistics and supply chain management system. That is no doubt imperative if we are to keep the L.A. region a trade hub of choice in an increasingly competitive global environment.

The winners in the next economy will be those who strengthen global assets and tap new sources of aggregate demand

This morning, I want to build on those messages. First, it is important to recognize that it is metro areas that are the true economic units of the global economy so they must act with intention to maximize the opportunities presented by expanding markets abroad. Yet, to act regionally, we need strong civic infrastructures — of business, political, civic, university, nonprofit leaders who must work effectively together to leverage and integrate all of the assets that will help the L.A. region prosper. The good news is that the new Los Angeles Regional Export Council and its regional export plan embody that kind of proactive, cross-sector partnership that will position this region well for success. And Brookings is pleased to have been advisor of that effort.

It is often said that collaboration is an unnatural act. Yet, those regional export partnerships and initiatives must succeed and not just be plans on paper. There are new rules of economic growth post-recession. To be clear: the regions that adapt well … with focus, intention and collective action … will be those who will excel in the new global economic order.

Times have changed. The U.S. economy is undergoing a major economic restructuring which demands a structural response. The Great Recession was not the same as its predecessors. The job loss this time was steeper, the impact deeper, and the recovery slower because this was a structural recession.

The core structural problem: Nearly all of the incremental job growth over the last two decades came from non-tradable sectors, such as real estate, retail, and government. This was the eye-popping stat issued by Nobel economist Michael Spence. In short, we stopped innovating and producing jobs in value-added industries that create wealth, grow local industries, and make our American marketplace distinct from our competitors.

The other big structural shift: Economic growth is increasingly taking place outside the U.S.

In 2010, the combined global GDP of the BIC nations surpassed that of the U.S. for the first time, making up one-fifth of the world economy. That shift is expected to accelerate in the coming years while the U.S. share of global GDP is forecasted to stay the same.

The rise of the BICs is also in part a reflection of the rise of global metros. Rapid industrialization has been matched by rapid urbanization. More than half of the world’s population now lives in cities, and that share is expected to grow to 60 percent in 2030 and 70 percent by 2050.

With rapid urbanization comes the rise of the global middle class which is driving the growth of consumption. OECD predicts that, despite the recession, consumption is expected to rise from $21 trillion today to $31 trillion by 2020, mostly due to the growth in Asia and Latin America.

We view these trends as less a threat but a market opportunity.

Against this back drop, let me tell you what the data is telling us. The winners in the next economy will be those who strengthen global assets and tap new sources of aggregate demand.

The leaders in the next economy will innovate in manufacturing. While manufacturing has contracted as a share of the overall economy, it is becoming leaner and more advanced. Thus, manufacturing jobs are recovering faster than the economy as a whole, at 2.3 percent in the third quarter of last year compared to 1.4 percent nationally. The manufacturing sector has added about 350,000 jobs in the last two years.

For those who remain skeptical about U.S. competitive advantage in manufacturing, this is not the industry of yesterday. The U.S. is the third largest manufacturing exporter in the world because manufacturing remains a critical part of our innovation cycle. U.S. manufacturing employs 35 percent of all of our scientists and engineers, invests 68 percent of all R&D; and generates 90 percent of all patents.

Leaders will also need to innovate in services. In fact, services, such as business consulting, education, architecture and planning, are the fastest growing segment of our export economy, and the U.S. has a trade surplus in services.

Within the services sector, expenditures of foreign students in U.S. colleges is growing steadily. We now have more than 720,000 international students studying in the United States, led by those from China, India, and Korea. That sector represents $21.2 billion in U.S. service exports.

Leaders in the next economy will also invent and deploy clean economy goods and services.

Rapid urbanization worldwide has pushed up the global demand for environmentally friendly goods and services, such as energy efficient appliances and building technologies, smart grid, sustainable land use planning and infrastructure, and organic foods. We are meeting that demand. In fact the U.S. has a sizeable clean economy, representing 2.7 million jobs.

The upshot: U.S. clean economy products generated $54 billion in exports, two times more value per job than the typical U.S. export.

Additionally, the regions that prosper will be those that take advantage of global demand. The post-recession reality has made that more urgent.

According to our recent Global MetroMonitor, 90 percent of the fastest growing markets among the 200 largest world cities were located outside of the U.S., Western Europe, and earthquake-ravaged Japan.

In fact, there are more than 20 markets around the globe that did not experience this last recession or have already fully recovered— Shanghai, Shenzhen, Mumbai in Asia ... Istanbul in Europe … Santiago and Buenos Aires in Latin America.

Bottom line: If we are to grow, our firms must look outside of the U.S. and tap emerging markets and global consumption as a source of growth here at home.

And here is the evidence: Those firms who embraced international sales drove our economic recovery. Exports were responsible for 46 percent of US GDP growth between 2010 and 2011 … which is remarkable since exports make up only 13 percent of the GDP of the U.S. … compared to much higher shares in China, Canada, and the entire EU.

Going global pays off for small and mid-sized firms. Those who exported saw their revenues grow, by 37 percent, through 2009, compared to just 7 percent among non-exporters.

Selling globally simply makes good business sense.

Second, it will be metro areas like Los Angeles that will drive the transition to the next economy.

Metro areas are the engines of the global economy b/c they aggregate and integrate the very market assets that drive growth. Even though the 100 largest metro areas sit on just 12 percent of the nation’s land area, they dominate in innovation, by attracting 94 percent of the nation’s venture capital. They are the producers of our trade economy, generating 75 percent of all services exports. And they are the hubs of supply chains and goods movements, handling 82 percent of the nation’s air freight.

As a result of those assets, the 100 largest metro areas generate 75 percent of the nation’s GDP.

And metro areas generate the majority of export activities in 30 out 50 states.

Let’s take a quick aerial trip to this metro area and showcase the unique components of your trade economy, which is truly regional in nature.

You are the largest metro exporter in the country, with $80b in export sales, and exports make up a larger share of this economy at 11 percent than the typical metro area or even the nation as a whole.

Your export economy is more service oriented than the national average … driven by royalties, travel and tourism, and business and professional services.

That’s not surprising. Ask anyone what they think L.A. produces: Hollywood is the first thing that comes to mind. In 2010, royalties were a $12.4 billion export industry, powered by film and television.

Yet L.A. does not just make films, it makes things. Close to 60 percent of your exports comes from the manufacturing sector, and you have over 106,000 direct export manufacturing jobs.

In Torrance, southwest of downtown, we find Luminit, a small manufacturer of advanced lighting products that are used in a broad range of applications. Luminit’s production center houses some of the world’s most advanced equipment for R&D, engineering, and the manufacturing of optics. In the last two years, the firm’s exports have grown 68 percent.

Just to the south of Luminit is Pelican Products, a firm that produces high-performance protective cases and advanced portable lighting equipment used by law enforcement, defense, aerospace, and the entertainment industry. Exports make up 35 percent of Pelican’s total business, and the firm sells its products to over 100 countries. As with Luminit, Pelican has experienced significant export growth in the past few years, driven by strong demand in Europe and Asia.

Both Pelican and Luminit benefit from their partnership with USC’s Center for International Business Education and Research and UCLA. One works with CIBER to help determine where to locate distribution centers in Asia. And the other benefits from the Export Champions program, a collaboration also with the L.A. Area Chamber of Commerce, which deploys MBA students to small firms to help them integrate international sales and markets into their business plans.

Further, these universities are service exporters themselves, attracting nearly 39,000 international students who purchase their top notch educational programs.

USC and UCLA are joined by Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at City Hall, the L.A. Area Chamber of Commerce, and others, such as the Ports of L.A. and Port of Long Beach, the Los Angeles World Airports and regional business associations in being part of a larger regional group—the Los Angeles Regional Export Council which was formed last November to bring greater coherence and focus in helping L.A. firms expand effectively in to global markets.

Finally, as you know well, the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach play particularly critical roles in the movement of goods produced by firms like Pelican and Luminit to markets throughout the world, especially to Asia. Taken together, these two ports form the busiest complex in the Western Hemisphere, and the sixth busiest port complex in the world.

The L.A. story reveals why it is not just the city but the entire metro area that powers our economy: these hyper-linked networks of private firms, universities and public and nonprofit institutions rely on each other to fertilize ideas, extend innovation, enhance competitiveness, and collaborate to catalyze economic growth for the entire region. These actors also make up the civic infrastructure needed to make sure the economy doesn’t just grow by luck but with purpose and vision.

That leads me to my final point, given all these assets, this region is poised to lead in the global economy.

First, you are innovating locally. And you must not only because of increased competition abroad but because partisan gridlock in Washington and the fiscal straightjacket in Sacramento demand that you drive your own fortunes in this global economy.

This region is one of four metro areas in the country piloting some of the nation’s first metro export plans. Your leadership in this space, alongside Portland, Minneapolis-St. Paul and Central New York, will likely spawn copycatting among state, city, and regional leaders who are eager to better orient their economies for export growth. Further, this state, and federal trade-related agencies, like ITA, SBA, Ex-Im Bank, are all committed to better align their state and federal activities with this region’s ambitions.

To develop its plan, this region conducted a market assessment of its export position, using data analysis and surveys and interviews of companies.

Leaders here worked hard to set exporting goals and objectives, devise strategies to meet those goals, and establish metrics to gauge progress.

And lastly and noted before, this plan was prepared by a consortium of corporate, government, university and civic institutions who “collaborated to compete” globally.

What I like about these plans is that it exemplifies exactly why you can not double exports nationally from the top but instead from the bottom up. The L.A. region and each of the other metros set a goal of doubling exports in five years. But each is meeting that goal with very different strategies, built on their unique competitive advantages. There is no one size fits all approach to doubling exports.

This region has established a Los Angeles Regional Export Council. The council, to be formal and funded, will be held accountable for ensuring that existing efforts and new programs are coordinated, unified, and sustained in ways that will increase the number and volume of exporters in this region.

The focus will be helping export ready companies in 12 target industries, like aerospace and energy/green technologies, connect to priority markets like the Pacific Rim.

In short, this proactive effort to bring more companies into the trade economy is good for all parts of greater L.A., such as for both ports and area airports, so they are shipping not just any goods but more products made in L.A.

To take this metro innovation to scale, Mayor Villaraigosa, in his capacity as head of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, put out an Export Challenge to America’s cities and metros: “Design strategies that build from your special export strengths.”

Soon, other metro areas will be joining you in developing innovative approaches to trade.

But, as you know, as much as you innovate locally, the states and federal leaders matter to the success of your efforts. So, you must advocate nationally.

Local leaders in China, Germany, South Korea, Spain, Brazil, and Columbia are working in partnership with their regional and national governments to make transformative investments in world class ports, high speed rail, research and innovation.

We must do the same here at home.

So what does this region want in a state and federal partnership to make a regional export and trade strategy a success?

First, at the state level, it has been helpful to have a state partner in the governor’s new Office of Business and Economic Development. The governor announced the opening of a new California-China Trade and Investment Office, while in L.A. during the Chinese vice president’s visit earlier this year.

That global presence is critical. But the state can do more at a time when other states are aggressively ramping up their state export capacity. It can re-establish the California Export Finance Office to provide small exporting firms with short-term financing, a self-generating program with little cost to tax payers. It should commit long term funding to the critical CITD program, the Centers of International Trade and Development, which trains firms on exporting but currently on a financial lifeline. Or it can establish a competitive grant program for metro area, as done in other states, so regions like L.A. can implement their own trade strategies

At the federal level, one of the few bipartisan successes was the passage of the free trade agreements. Hopefully, for the remainder of the year, we will also pass the reauthorization of the Ex-Im Bank, and maybe a short term national transportation bill.

But when this election is over, this region should demand real action:

No matter who is president, there is a good chance that the federal government will streamline and reorganize federal trade agencies and services. And the business community is demanding it. Metros also need to play an enormous role.

President Obama, for example, has proposed consolidating six agencies in this federal apparatus involved in trade activities: the U.S. Department of Commerce’s core business and trade functions, the Small Business Administration, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, the Export-Import Bank, and the Overseas Private Investment Corporation.

Yet consolidation would be a failure if it just moved agency boxes around in Washington D.C.

The key to success is to integrate activities on the ground. As I have heard Carlos urge often… local representatives of the federal export agencies must operate as a unified export team themselves– with one set of export objectives, one set of performance metrics, in alignment with a region’s ambitions and puts businesses first.

Finally, beyond innovating locally and advocating nationally, U.S. metros must network globally—creating and stewarding close working relationships with trading partners in both mature and rising nations.

Strong connections already exist:

Metros with concentrations in financial services, like New York, are forming tight, interlocking networks with similarly focused metros around the world.

Metros with concentrations in advanced manufacturing, like Detroit, are similarly linking with metros in both developed and rising nations.

And port metros like Los Angeles-Long Beach are making key connections with the world’s air, rail and sea hubs.

These networks obviously start with firms and ports that do business with each other.

But, over time, they must extend to supporting institutions— governments, universities, regional business groups—that provide support for companies at the leading edge of metropolitan economies.

The goal is to revive the way the global economy evolved before the rise of nation states when historical trade routes flowed through cities … like the 15^th century Silk Road that connected Asian cities and silk, tea, spices, they produced to cities in Europe, Mediterranean and Africa.

* * *

In closing, I want to urge you to not rest on your rankings. You may be the largest exporter in the U.S., and the busiest port hub in the U.S., but the L.A. economy lags on the global stage in the extent to which its firms are selling and engaging globally. To stay on top of the global game, you need to work together as one region, with one global vision, engaging with other markets around the world. Leveraging and building up the assets of a globally connected economy—cutting edge innovation in manufacturing and services, strong firms and sectors, skilled workers, freight/passenger logistics, immigrant gateways, FDI—can not be the sole responsibility of one jurisdiction or one organization. The export council and export plan is a promising start to working together. So please join these and other regional efforts and commit to their success. Only then will you be able to bring home the fruits of global trade to all firms, workers, and neighborhoods in the L.A. region.

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Going Global: The Future of Metro Economies (Full Presentation)

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Amy Liu

Going Global: Central New York Export Plan

Amy Liu — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Editor's Note: At the CenterState Corporation for Economic Opportunity's Annual Meeting on April 4, 2012, Amy Liu applauded CenterState CEO Presideent Rob Simpson and his team (along with their public and private sector partners) on their central New York export plan. During this meeting, Liu delivered the following remarks.

I want to applaud Rob Simpson and his team at CenterState CEO and all of their public and private sector partners for today’s release of the CenterState New York Export Plan. These leaders have worked closely together, with great resolve, over the last nine months to develop this one-of-a-kind initiative.

And we at Brookings are pleased to have been partners and advisors to this region. This region is one of four metro areas in the country piloting some of the nation’s first metro export plans. And this region is doing so while driving forward on a broader business plan for growth, of which exports will be an integral part. Throughout all this, we at Brookings remain impressed with the leadership, civic cohesion, capacity, and optimistic commitment of this community. These are key ingredients to make any plan more than a plan but a true community-wide initiative with tangible results.

But let me also be clear, this new export plan reflects precisely where this region needs to go if it is to excel in the new global economic order.

Times have changed. The U.S. economy is undergoing a major economic restructuring, and regions like central New York must adapt to the new realities.

The Great Recession was not the same as its predecessors. The job loss this time was steeper, the impact deeper, and the recovery slower because this was a structural recession.

The core, structural problem: Nearly all of the incremental job growth over the last two decades came from non-tradable sectors, such as retail, real estate, and government. This was the eye-popping stat issued by Nobel economist Michael Spence. In short, we stopped innovating and producing jobs in value-added industries that create wealth and make our American marketplace distinct from our competitors.

The other big structural shift: Economic growth is increasingly taking place outside the United States.

In 2010, the combined global GDP of the BIC nations surpassed that of the U.S. for the first time, making up one-fifth of the world economy. That shift is expected to accelerate in the coming years while the U.S. share of global GDP is forecasted to stay the same.

The rise of the BICs is also in part a reflection of the rise of global metros. Rapid industrialization has been matched by rapid urbanization. More than half of the world’s population now lives in cities, and that share is expected to grow to 60% in 2030 and 70% by 2050.

With rapid urbanization comes the rise of the global middle class which is driving the growth of consumption. OECD predicts that, despite the recession, consumption is expected to rise from $21 trillion today to $31 trillion by 2020, mostly due to the growth in Asia and Latin America.

We view these trends as less a threat but a market opportunity.

Against this back drop, let me tell you what the data is telling us. The winners in the next economy will be those who strengthen global assets and tap new sources of aggregate demand.

The leaders in the next economy will innovate in manufacturing. While manufacturing has contracted as a share of the overall economy, it is becoming leaner and more advanced. Due to global demand and innovation, manufacturing jobs are recovering faster than the economy as a whole, at 2.3 percent in the third quarter of last year compared to 1.4 percent nationally. The manufacturing sector has added 400,000 jobs in the last two years.

Leaders will also innovate in services. In fact, services, such as business consulting, education, architecture and planning, are the fastest growing segment of our export economy, and the U.S. has a trade surplus in services.

Within the services sector, expenditures of foreign students in U.S. colleges is growing steadily. We now have more than 720,000 international students studying in the United States, led by those from China, India and Korea. That sector represents $21.2 billion in U.S. service exports.

Leaders in the next economy will also invent and deploy clean economy goods and services.

Rapid urbanization worldwide has pushed up the global demand for environmentally friendly goods and services, such as energy efficient appliances and building technologies, smart grid, sustainable land use planning and infrastructure, and organic foods.

Hence, U.S. clean economy products generated $54 billion in exports, two times more value per job than the typical U.S. export.

Finally, the regions that prosper will be those that take advantage of global demand. The post-recession reality has made that more urgent.

According to our recent Global MetroMonitor, 90 percent of the fastest growing markets among the 200 largest world cities were located outside of the U.S., western Europe, and earthquake-ravaged Japan.

In fact, there are more than 20 markets around the globe that did not experience this last recession or have already fully recovered – Shanghai, Shenzhen, Mumbai in Asia…..Istanbul in Europe….Santiago and Buenos Aires in Latin America.

Bottom line: If we are to grow, our firms must look outside of the U.S. and tap emerging markets and global consumption as a source of growth here at home.

Finally, going global pays off for small and mid-sized firms. Those who exported saw their revenues grow, by 37 percent, through 2009, compared to just 7 percent among non-exporters.

Selling globally simply makes good business sense.

CenterState New York’s export plan acts on many of these opportunities, growing our key tradeable sectors by linking them to global markets.

Central New York is just one of four metro areas in the U.S. that will be spearheading a metro export plan in the coming months.

Your leadership in this space will likely spawn copycatting among state, city and regional leaders who are eager to better orient their economies for export growth. Further, the federal trade-related agencies, like Ex-Im Bank and the Department of Commerce, represented by Wanda and Bruce today, SBA, are committed to better align their federal activities with metro ambitions.

Why do we even need an explicit metro export strategy?

Because we are still a nation of underexporters. Just 1 percent of U.S. firms sell a product or service outside the U.S., which pales in comparison to our competitors.

Surveys and interviews with companies in central New York reinforce what’s true nationally—they are afraid to export. They are comfortable sticking to what they know, which is the U.S. market and they believe that is sufficient. Many are not aware of the benefits of global trade or the wide array of state and federal programs available to help them break into world markets. Meanwhile, for those who are enlightened, there is a dizzying number of export services and providers which can be a frustrating experience for firms.

Thus a metro export initiative can overcome these barriers and furthers state and federal efforts.

You will hear more about the plan details in the afternoon panel discussion. But a metro export plan plays a unique niche in proactively reaching out to target companies, help them become export-ready, and help more companies integrate international sales into their long-term business plan. This role is critical if our nation is to expand the number of quality exporters.

But the metro export plan’s value is greater than that and we will discuss more this afternoon.

Finally, while Central New York is an underexporter, there are positive assets that can be leveraged to boost exports and grow jobs in the Central New York.

To start, Greater Syracuse has a small $3.3 billion export economy, ranking you 72nd among all metros.

That export activity directly supports more than 12,700 jobs in the region, and supports another 23,000 indirect jobs in the supply chain. Not bad, but for every $1 billion in new export volume, the region adds approximately 3,500 direct jobs.

One of the best and unique assets here to boost exports is through the service economy, such as business services, tourism, and ways eds and meds can draw dollars from outside the U.S.

And service exports grew rapidly here, by 60 percent in the last 7 years, compared to just 20 percent in manufactured goods.

Further, the region attracts approx 3,300 international students to Syracuse University and other higher ed institutions, a good foundation for fueling your service economy.

And, not shown here, is that the Syracuse metro area has the 11th highest concentration of clean economy jobs in the country, so your niche in HVAC and building technologies, and air and water purification technologies, could be a solid global product.

So, given these assets, this region’s goal to double exports over the next five years with this new plan is achievable.

In closing, I want to urge all of you to support and be part of this important initiative. A more globally connected, globally aware Central New York is a more competitive, prosperous region for all.

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Amy Liu

Publication: CenterState CEO Annual Meeting

Despite College Basketball Rivalry, Kentucky Metros Collaborate on Economy

Amy Liu and Richard Shearer — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 10:20:00 -0400

Saturday night's NCAA Final Four showdown between Louisville and Kentucky was hard-fought between two rival schools and two rival coaches. But their historic on-court competition stands in stark contrast to a new partnership being forged by their home metro areas. Led by mayors Jim Gray and Greg Fischer, Lexington and Louisville are collaborating to compete economically so they can prosper in the global economy.

Fischer and Gray are two former-businessmen-turned-mayors who took office right at the tail of the recession. Both inherently understood that rising competition abroad required them to act boldly to innovate and grow jobs at home. It didn’t take long for these two entrepreneurial mayors to look across Interstate 64 and recognize the opportunity to bring their metro areas together in ways that will put their combined region – and assets – on the global map.

Last summer, these mayors, with their high-caliber private and public sector partners, launched the Bluegrass Economic Advancement Movement (BEAM), an effort to create a metro business plan for growth that will unify and leverage their common markets assets – such as manufacturing, university innovation, transportation/logistics – to boost the economic prospects of their two metros. To demonstrate their commitment to an historic alliance, the mayors jointly appointed Jim Host as chairman of BEAM, an influential statesman and Lexington businessman who chaired the Louisville Arena Authority.

Lexington, Louisville, and the surrounding counties represent a mega region of over 1.9 million people, roughly the size of Las Vegas, NV. Encompassing 22 counties, including the four southern Indiana counties in the Louisville metro, the BEAM region comprises roughly half of the commonwealth’s population, jobs, and economy. This makes the BEAM effort of vital importance not only to the economic prosperity of the two metros but the entire commonwealth.

To date, the region has been hard at work undertaking a rigorous market analysis of the strengths and opportunities facing their two metro areas and adjoining counties. The Bluegrass region boasts over 100,000 manufacturing jobs, anchored by global giants like GE, Ford, and Toyota. Both metro areas benefit from the UPS Air headquarters in Louisville, which provides an easy port of entry to the world for area firms and travelers. Both these assets may explain why both Louisville and Lexington are major exporters, besting the nation on their share of economic output generated by exports. And the presence of both University of Kentucky and University of Louisville helps the region attract talent, especially among skilled immigrants.

But the challenges are clear: Despite these assets, the Bluegrass region has been lagging the nation in economic output and productivity growth, and median household incomes have fallen faster than the national average. This is the right time for a forward-leaning vision and plan of action for making the Louisville-Lexington super region a true hub of manufacturing innovation and growth. Mayor Gray and Mayor Fisher, with their rare leadership and genuine friendship, are the right CEOs to drive this plan forward.

With Louisville and Lexington teaming up, the state will be the big winner, as it was in this year's tournament.

Editor’s Note: This piece has been updated from its original version, published on March 31.

Authors

Amy Liu
Richard Shearer

Publication: The Avenue, The New Republic

Brookings: Experts - Amy Liu

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