Brookings: Experts - Mwangi S. Kimenyi

The African Union at 50: The Path Forward

Fri, 17 May 2013 10:00:00 -0400

Event Information

May 17, 2013
10:00 AM - 11:30 AM EDT

Saul/Zilkha Rooms
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

The African Union turns 50 years old this month, marking one half century of increased political and economic cooperation across the continent. The African Union’s aims include promoting unity and solidarity among member states; enhancing peace, security and stability on the continent; and increasing good governance and international cooperation. While significant progress has been achieved in all these areas, the African Union continues to encounter distinct development challenges, including ensuring progress on regional integration, ongoing regional instability, poverty and inequality.

On May 17, the Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings marked the African Union’s 50th anniversary with a discussion on the successes and challenges of this important institution. Panelists included: Deputy Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Reuben Brigety, Georgetown University Professor of Anthropology and Foreign Service Gwendolyn Mikell and H.E. Tebelelo Seretse, ambassador of the Republic of Botswana. Brookings Senior Fellow Mwangi Kimenyi, director of the Africa Growth Initiative moderated the discussion.

Mukhisa Kituyi to Head the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

Mwangi S. Kimenyi — Thu, 16 May 2013 11:26:00 -0400

The United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has appointed Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi to be the next secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). An UNCTAD press release on May 16, 2013 stated that Dr. Kituyi will serve a four-year term beginning September 1, 2013. Dr. Kituyi has held several senior positions including Kenya’s minister of trade from 2003-2008. He is currently a nonresident fellow in the Africa Growth Initiative (AGI) at the Brookings Institution and was a resident scholar in 2011. Dr. Kituyi is well versed in the global trading system and, in the past, was considered a potential candidate to head organizations such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) and UNCTAD, but instead opted to join politics. A dynamic politician and intellectual, Dr. Kituyi is an excellent choice to head UNCTAD.

For AGI, the appointment of Dr. Kituyi is significant not only because he is one of our fellows but also because AGI has been emphasizing the need to increase informed African voices in global governance. We believe that African interests are not effectively represented in major global institutions, and this deficiency has contributed to the broader marginalization of the continent in global affairs. Dr. Kituyi should be an effective voice in representing Africa and other developing countries. And, as I know him, I believe this is one informed voice that the international community is unlikely to ignore.

But it will not be a smooth ride for the new secretary-general; a host of challenges await him in Geneva. First, more than in most global organizations, UNCTAD requires effective management and intellectual leadership. An internal report published last year—the Joint Inspection Unit Report—showed that UNCTAD has been suffering from a lack of effective governance. It is important that Dr. Kituyi focus on raising the bar in terms of professionalism at UNCTAD. This task will require looking into the recruitment and promotion of employees strictly based on merit. Dr. Kituyi will need to carefully evaluate personnel issues and provide the necessary motivation to ensure that the organization delivers on its mandate. Most importantly, he will have to steer the organization towards more transparency, rewarding performance instead of simple loyalty to senior management. The new secretary-general will also need to offer the intellectual leadership necessary to guide the institution through a time of major global economic change and a shifting of economic power to the South. He must therefore lead intellectually in offering alternative ideas to those emerging from traditional development institutions.

An even a more daunting challenge that the new secretary-general will face is to ensure that UNCTAD remains relevant and credible. Over the past few years, questions have been raised as to what should be the institution’s focus. Some have gone to the extent of insisting that UNCTAD should not be involved in macroeconomic and financial areas. But as its name suggests, UNCTAD was created to deal with issues relating to trade and development with a particular emphasis in developing countries. There is no doubt, therefore, that macroeconomics and finance squarely fit in the institution’s mandate. Indeed, UNCTAD used to be the forum where these issues would be negotiated in order to ensure some balance in the global economy. However, since the creation of the WTO, UNCTAD has experienced a progressive erosion of its voice. It will be the responsibility of Dr. Kituyi to reverse this trend so that UNCTAD can play its rightful role in the global economic policy scene. The new secretary-general must also position UNCTAD to better address the imbalance and unfairness in the multilateral trading rules that have shaped globalization. In UNCTAD, it is often the case that developing countries feel bullied by their developed country partners. It will be imperative for Dr. Kituyi to identify the best way to navigate issues that have come to divide developed and developing regions.

The secretary-general must also position UNCTAD so as to assist developing countries in seizing the opportunities presented by the global economy. With all the changes taking place in the world, UNCTAD has to focus on how developing countries can reap the benefits and minimize the negative effects arising from trade and globalization. This focus requires that UNCTAD take on the hard topics that are of particular interest to developing countries, including investment policy, trade in services and commodities—which it has always done—but it should also come out clearly on what path developing countries should follow. Likewise, we are likely to see an acceleration of regional trade arrangements. Most challenging are agreements involving Northern and Southern partners who cannot be considered equal partners when they negotiate. The jurisprudence on the rules governing such agreements is not commonly agreed upon. Hence, there is a need for UNCTAD to demonstrate, based on evidence, how to ensure that balanced development is achievable, especially in respect to North-South agreements.

With an incoming director general at the WTO and Dr. Kituyi at UNCTAD, the global environment offers an opportunity for the two institutions that drive trade and development to establish the missing dialogue. For this to happen, UNCTAD needs to be credible when articulating its voice in this changing global economy. This is the greatest challenge that Dr. Kituyi faces.

Authors

Mwangi S. Kimenyi

Image Source: © Ronen Zvulun / Reuters

Mapping the African Growth Landscape

Mwangi S. Kimenyi — Wed, 15 May 2013 13:29:00 -0400

Editor's Note: In this piece, Mwangi Kimenyi discusses Africa's integration following the session "Mapping the African Growth Landscape," held at this year's the World Economic Forum on Africa.

The session on Mapping the African Growth Landscape focused on the sectors that hold the greatest potential for economic growth in Africa. The session started with each of the participants voting for three sectors that they considered as having highest potential for growth. The sectors selected by most of the participants were: information communication technology and telecommunications; energy and engineering; entrepreneurship; education; manufacturing; and agriculture. The selection of these sectors was influenced not only by their potential to contribute to the growth of the economies, but also to creating jobs, especially for the youth.

Working in groups, participants identified opportunities and strategies for exploiting the economic growth potentials that the various sectors offer. Although many of the opportunities and strategies identified were specific to particular sectors, there were also some common themes. For example, innovation was identified as a source of potential growth in all sectors. This includes advances in the ICT sector, innovations in the delivery of education to ensure quality instruction or innovative approaches, developing entrepreneurship through entrepreneurship hubs and incubators or even innovations to improve governance using ICT. Innovation was also considered key to expanding the manufacturing sector and in agriculture, such as the introduction of genetically modified seeds. Participants were of the opinion that Africans must embrace innovations to fully exploit the growth opportunities of various sectors.

Participants focused on actions to exploit the growth potential afforded by the various sectors. The ICT sector was identified as having great potential for growth through expansion of mobile penetration with applications in health and industry. The sector was identified as presenting immense opportunity through the compilation of information on the population, which would assist in policies for the delivery of health services and in tax collection. Participants observed that the energy sector presents many opportunities for growth, but there is need to develop a forward-looking energy master plan for Africa, not just for individual countries. Many opportunities also exist for a diverse mix of energy sources including solar, hydro and thermal.

Read the full commentary and watch the related video »

Authors

Mwangi S. Kimenyi

Publication: World Economic Forum

Image Source: © Reuters Staff / Reuters

The U.S., China and Africa: Pursuing Trilateral Dialogue and Action

Mon, 13 May 2013 14:30:00 -0400

Event Information

May 13, 2013
2:30 PM - 4:30 PM EDT

Falk Auditorium
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

With six of the ten fastest growing economies in world, sub-Saharan Africa is attracting both American and Chinese investors. The growing importance of sub-Saharan Africa to the global economy has made the region a focal point for the differing policies of the United States and China. China recently pledged significant financing to Africa over the three year period from 2012-2014, while the U.S. looks to extend the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act ahead of schedule. Despite the opportunities and growth in the region, the U.S., China and Africa all face shared and separate challenges in the areas of security, trade, investment, foreign policy, and natural resource extraction and management.

On May 13, the Africa Growth Initiative and the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings, with the Institute for Statistical, Social, and Economic Research at the University of Ghana and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, hosted a discussion to examine the relationships among the U.S., China and African states. This forum was the first in a series, which brings a balanced perspective to the examination of the challenges and opportunities for trilateral dialogue and action.

Video

The U.S., China and Africa: Pursuing Trilateral Dialogue and Action

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The U.S., China and Africa: Pursuing Trilateral Dialogue and Action

Transcript

Transcript (.pdf)

Event Materials

20130513_us_china_africa_trilateral_transcript

World Economic Forum on Africa: Delivering Africa’s Promise

Mwangi S. Kimenyi — Mon, 06 May 2013 12:19:00 -0400

The World Economic Forum (WEF) on Africa was established in Davos, Switzerland in 1990. Since then, the Forum has brought together thousands of world leaders, government officials, business executives and policy experts to discuss the various opportunities and challenges that Africa faces in pursuit of improving the continent’s economy and quality of life of her inhabitants. Broadly, the WEF on Africa has provided a platform for high-level debates and an exchange of ideas on economic and political issues affecting the continent. The primary objective of the WEF is to improve the state of the world by engaging political, business and policy leaders in shaping regional and industry agenda. Annual forums have dealt with different themes that reflect the realities of the day consistent to the objective of the WEF. Naturally, with the major changes that have taken place in Africa’s political and economic landscape over the past 23 years, the themes of the annual forums have also varied significantly.

This year, the WEF on Africa will be held on May 8-10 in Cape Town, South Africa. The theme of the Forum is “Delivering Africa’s Promise.” This theme is informed by the good economic performance that African countries have recorded over the past decade but with the realization that the benefits of growth have not reached many of the people and that there are many forces that could reverse the growth trends in the future. Although the recent growth has resulted in a large and growing middle class, the benefits of growth have not been shared by the majority of the population. Growth has occurred amidst increasing inequality and joblessness, especially among youth. In essence, the good economic growth has not really made a difference to the livelihoods of millions of Africans. Furthermore, although it is expected that Africa will continue to record decent rates of growth over the near future, there are many potential risks to sustained growth, such as the volatile global situation, the limited diversification of the continent’s productive structures and associated dependence on commodities, the many barriers to competitive economies—such as the large infrastructure deficit—and leadership and skills shortfalls.

The Cape Town forum will focus on issues that are key to unlocking Africa’s potential and sustaining high rates of economic growth that are also inclusive. These include strategies to accelerate investments in infrastructure and agriculture, building resilience, strengthening partnerships for growth through investments, enhancing technological innovation, managing natural wealth, nurturing leadership, and creating strategies to enhance jobs and skills, among many other pertinent topics. Special sessions by leaders and development experts including the Cape Verde President Emeritus Pedro Pires, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria Sanusi Lamido Sanus, Founder and Group Chief Executive of the Abraaj Group Arif Naqvi, Professor Calestous Juma and Mo Ibrahim promise a rich offering of perspectives and insights on delivering Africa’s promise to her citizens.

I will be participating at the Forum and I am privileged to be the Rapporteur of one of the key plenary sessions, “Mapping the African Growth Landscape,” scheduled for May 9. This session will feature African cabinet ministers, business leaders and international policy experts. After the session, I will record a video that will be posted as part of the WEF’s Insight Reporting.

In addition to the public events, I am looking forward to participating in a session on the role of African think tanks in policymaking. This important session will seek to expound on how African think tanks can better support policymaking in finding solutions to the challenges that the continent faces.

Follow me on Twitter @mwangikimenyi as I provide insights from Cape Town.

Authors

Mwangi S. Kimenyi

Image Source: © Pascal Lauener / Reuters

Youth Policy and the Future of African Development

Kwabena Gyimah-Brempong and Mwangi S. Kimenyi — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 13:44:00 -0400

INTRODUCTION

One of the greatest challenges facing governments and policymakers in Africa today is how to provide opportunities for the continent’s more than 200 million youth so that they can have decent lives and contribute to the economic development of their countries. According to the United Nations (2012), Africa’s 2011 population was estimated at 1.05 billion and is expected to double by 2050. Africa is the youngest continent in the world: About 70 percent of its population is 30 years of age or younger. In 2011, youth, who are defined here as those between 15 and 24 years of age, constituted 21 percent of the more than 1 billion people in Africa, whereas another 42 percent was less than 15 years old. Slightly more than half of the African youth population is female, and there are more rural dwellers than urban dwellers. With such a large proportion under 15 years of age, Africa’s youth population is expected to grow in the years to come while the youth population in other parts of the world shrinks.

Undoubtedly, the challenges for youth that are central to Africa’s economic development are numerous and varied—they include employment, health and political participation.

Undoubtedly, the challenges for youth that are central to Africa’s economic development are numerous and varied—they include employment, health and political participation. These issues differ among groups within countries (by gender, education level, ethnicity and health status), and across countries and regions. Conversely, the size, energy, enthusiasm, innovation and dynamism of youth are assets that can be harnessed for Africa’s development with appropriate policies that deal adequately with the issues facing them.

The potentially important role of youth in Africa’s development cannot be overemphasized. Youth could be a source of labor inputs as well as human capital in production, which would improve total factor productivity in a region of the world where capital formation is limited. When employed, youth could be a reliable source of demand for the economy through their consumption activities. In addition, the youth of Africa could be critical for the development of a new class of entrepreneurs that African countries need to prosper. Furthermore, Africa has an opportunity to harness a “demographic dividend”: With the projection that most countries in Africa will have more working-age adults per child in 2030 than in 2006, there will be a large workforce supporting fewer children and the elderly. This trend would result in a lower dependency burden, freeing up resources for development; see, for example, Ashford (2007).

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Authors

Kwabena Gyimah-Brempong
Mwangi S. Kimenyi

Image Source: © Stringer . / Reuters

Top Five Reasons Why Africa Should Be a Priority for the United States

Wed, 03 Apr 2013 15:45:00 -0400

Tell us why you think Africa matters to the U.S. Join the conversation on Twitter using #AfricaMatters.

For over a decade now, the continent of Africa, especially sub-Saharan Africa, has undergone a major transformation. In 2000, The Economist referred to Africa as the “Hopeless Continent.” This nickname was based on an evaluation of the many disadvantages that characterized the continent: poverty and disease, cycles of conflict, military and dictatorial one-party states, etc. Despite large endowments of natural resources, the continent’s economic performance was dismal as a result of poor macroeconomic management and a hostile environment for doing business.

In 2011, The Economist referred to Africa as the “Rising Continent” and a March 2013 issue of the magazine contained a special report referring to Africa as the “Hopeful Continent.” These days, Africa is variously referred to in positive terms such as emerging, rising and hopeful. This positive view of Africa is justified—sub-Saharan Africa is the host of some of the fastest growing economies in the world. This growth is not just due to rising commodity prices but is also driven by a more vibrant private sector supported by an improved business climate. There have also been dramatic improvements in governance and economic management. The region has seen major improvements in various sectors of the economy, especially in services. The information technology revolution has become an important aspect of the new Africa, particularly in terms of mobile technologies. As a result of these developments, Africa’s middle class is now growing rapidly, and the continent has become a major market for consumer goods. While sub-Saharan Africa still faces many development challenges, it is a far cry from the one described by The Economist in 2000. Africa is indeed on the path to claiming the 21st century.

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Kenya: A Country Redeemed after a Peaceful Election

Mwangi S. Kimenyi — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 10:27:00 -0400

The aftermath of the 2007 post-election violence in Kenya – which resulted in 1,300 deaths and thousands more displaced from their homes— left an ugly scar on the country’s image. Since attaining independence from British rule in 1963, Kenya had been one of few African exceptions to military coups and civil conflicts. The post-election violence in 2007 greatly undermined Kenya’s position as country where the people were united. It revealed serious grievances and divisions in the society and many ridiculed Kenya as yet another story of a state doomed to fail.

However, over the five years, Kenyans have made significant reforms in their institutions that in part contributed to the violence in 2007. Kenyans now have a new constitution, which not only creates lower level county governments but also reduces the powers of the presidency and establishes many independent institutions that are not subject to manipulation by the executive. The most important of these include a reformed judiciary and the Independent Election and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

On March 4, 2013, Kenyans participated in a complex election that included voting for the president and deputy president, county governors, senators, members of parliament and women representatives. Kenyans turned out in large numbers with over 80 percent of registered voters coming out to vote. There were no serious incidences of violence and the electoral process was deemed by many international observes as free, fair and credible. Although the IEBC faced challenges in the tallying process as a result of the technological failure of the data transmission system, the reversion to manual tallying did not compromise the integrity of the process.

After days of tallying and counter-checking the election results, the IEBC declared Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate William Ruto as having been duly elected as president and deputy president, having received over 50 percent of the votes cast. Their closest rival, Raila Odinga and his running mate, Kalonzo Musyoka, managed about 43 percent of the votes cast. However, Mr. Odinga refused to accept the results on the grounds that the IEBC had failed to conduct a credible election. But on March 31, 2013, the Supreme Court of Kenya declared that the March 4 election was free, fair and credible.

To a large extent, the prevailing peace in Kenya is a result of the many reforms that the country has undertaken to create credible institutions like the IEBC. Kenyans also trust the reformed judiciary, which has demonstrated its professionalism, independence, and capacity to adjudicate on complex matters, including the presidential election. One major lesson for the international community is that peace is more likely to be durable when it’s the people of Kenya and their own institutions that are left to handle their problems.

Now that credible and peaceful elections have taken place, Kenya has redeemed itself. This is the big story that the local media has been covering. However, the international media coverage of the elections has been extremely poor and demonstrated a mundane understanding of the electoral dynamics in Kenya. Apparently, international media outlets sent their best war correspondents and not election experts. It seems like they expected to cover stories of violence rather than elections. Frustrated with peaceful elections, these correspondents failed to note the great progress that Kenya has made and the monumental significance of the 2013 elections.

Kenya and the International Community

Leaders from all over the world— including from the United States, Germany, United Kingdom, Russia, China, U.N. Secretary General Moon, and many others— have congratulated Kenya’s new president-elect and his deputy. They have all praised the major progress that Kenya has made in conducing credible and peaceful elections. The statement released by the White House noted that “the electoral process and the peaceful adjudication of disputes in the Kenyan legal system are testaments to the progress Kenya has made in strengthening its democratic institutions, and the desire of the Kenyan people to move their country forward.” These statements underscore the progress that Kenyans have made to resolve their own problems.

The statements by the United States and United Kingdom also noted that Kenya must continue to uphold “its international obligations, including those with respect to international justice.” This is specifically in reference to the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has indicted both Mr. Kenyatta and Mr. Ruto. The two have committed to clearing the allegations by the ICC and will abide with the ICC process.

However, if the international community is truly committed to the fair adjudication of justice by the ICC, it must also ensure that the court is not used to play politics. It is quite obvious that the Kenyan cases currently before the ICC were poorly investigated and the selection of the accused was purely a political move to remove the most popular candidates from the presidential contest. Evidence recently revealed shows that witnesses were manipulated to lie in order to get convictions. Witnesses have actually recanted and some of the cases dropped. In fact, one factor that boosted the support of the Kenyatta and Ruto is precisely that Kenyans realized that the ICC had been sucked into the Kenyan politics. Now that this scheme has failed and the two have been elected, the international community needs to place more scrutiny on the ICC so that it does not continue to divide Kenyans and other Africans.

As noted previously, the prevailing peace in Kenya is the outcome of the interplay of the Kenya’s own institutions. With the reformed judiciary that Kenyans trust, the ICC intervention in the country needs to be reconsidered. So, as global leaders call upon Kenyans to uphold their commitment to international justice, they must also recognize that the ICC is itself far from perfect and prone to political manipulation.

Authors

Mwangi S. Kimenyi

Image Source: © Goran Tomasevic / Reuters

Chinua Achebe’s Legacy and the Need for More African Voices in U.S.-Africa Policy Dialogues

Mwangi S. Kimenyi and Jessica Elaine Smith — Tue, 26 Mar 2013 09:57:00 -0400

Chinua Achebe, the literary giant from Nigeria, passed away last Thursday. In his various writings, Achebe challenged the then Eurocentric perspectives and instead brought an African perspective to the story of colonialism in Nigeria as expounded in his books, Things Fall Apart and No Longer at Ease. These books showed the clash between the Igbo and the British in Nigeria: first from the perspective of a Nigerian father, and in the second book from the perspective of his European-educated son.

Before Achebe, Amos Tutuola, Camara Laye and other African literary titans, the narrative of the African region and colonialism was handled primarily by the likes of Joseph Conrad, John Locke and Joyce Cary. Of course, these European perspectives are not entirely invalid. However, they represent only one broad perspective of Africa. As the old saying goes “Until the lion learns to speak, the tales of hunting will always glorify the hunter.” Fortunately, Chinua Achebe’s stories strengthened the African narrative and inspired future writers to realize the possibilities for African literature, as Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie says in her Ted Talk, “I realized that people who looked like me could live in books.” Adichie, the author of Half of a Yellow Sun, takes Achebe as a lesson to avoid the “danger of a single story” or a single perspective. She also points out that in some cases the ability to voice a particular perspective sometimes boils down to how much dominance the story teller has, “How [stories] are told, who tells them, when they’re told, how many stories are told — are really dependent on power.”

In the African policy dialogue in Washington, as in literature, there is a tendency for a single narrative or perspective to dominate otherwise complex and varied perspectives of the continent. For example, The Economist deemed Africa the “hopeless continent” in the early 2000s. This narrative was recently retracted by the magazine and revised as “A hopeful continent”. In policy discussions in Washington, it is not uncommon for think tanks and briefings on Capitol Hill to feature panel discussions on African policy issues with experts sourced entirely from Europe and the U.S. The perspectives advanced in such forums could be well informed, but like the pre-Achebe writings, the narrative ignores the African perspective. As we mourn the passing of this great literary hero, we see our mission at the Brookings Africa Growth Initiative to take Achebe’s message forward by incorporating African voices in the policy dialogue on Africa in Washington. By amplifying and raising African voices in the U.S.-Africa policy dialogue, AGI complements the U.S. or European perspectives to facilitate better decision-making and to avoid missing opportunities that could potentially benefit both the African region and the United States.

Authors

Mwangi S. Kimenyi
Jessica Elaine Smith

Image Source: © Mike Hutchings / Reuters

The Significance of Obama’s Meeting with African Leaders at the White House

Mwangi S. Kimenyi — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 16:01:00 -0400

Since coming to office in 2009, President Obama has on a number of occasions invited African leaders for meetings at the White House and at luncheons at the United Nations in New York. Over the past four years, Obama has hosted several African leaders at the White House including: Zuma of South Africa, Kikwete of Tanzania, Mills of Ghana, Jonathan of Nigeria, Tsvangirai of Zimbabwe, Khama of Botswana, Sirleaf of Liberia, Yayi of Benin, Conde of Guinea, Issoufou of Niger, and Ouattara of Côte d’Ivoire, among others.

These selective meetings with African leaders have not only served to advance American interests in Africa, but have also been used to tacitly communicate the administration’s expectations of democratic reforms in Africa and to reward those countries that have made advances in the cause of democracy and human rights.

While it is not the case that those invited represent the most democratic or free countries in Africa, they do often represent countries that have made substantial progress in democratization or cessation of civil conflict. In some cases, an African country’s strategic importance to the United States in terms of security appears to be the most important factor for inclusion on the White House invitation list.

Next Thursday, President Obama will host four African leaders at the White House: Jorge Carlos Fonseca of Cape Verde, Macky Sall of Senegal, Ernest Bai Koroma of Sierra Leone and Joyce Banda of Malawi. In hosting these leaders, President Obama will yet again send a message to African leaders that his administration wants to engage with those leaders and countries that uphold the rule of law and good governance. The president is likely to proclaim the invited leaders as the best examples of the type of leadership that Africa needs to deal with the wide array of developmental challenges that the continent faces. The president will yet again highlight United States’ commitment to partnering with those African countries that demonstrate advances in good governance, democracy and tackling corruption.

President Obama’s engagement with a select group of African leaders whose countries have made advances in democratic reforms has its merits. However, there are many countries that are critical to peace and security in Africa and deserve to be part of the conversation with the president.

Cape Verde

Of all the African countries whose leaders will be visiting the White House next week, Cape Verde stands out with respect to its robust institutions and good governance. In addition to continued entrenchment of the rule of the law, Cape Verde has also been consistent in instituting reforms necessary to sustain high rates of economic growth. Its indicators of political rights, civil liberties, and freedom of information are among the highest in Africa. President Fonseca won in a multi-party election in August 2011 in Cape Verde, taking over from Pedro Verona Rodrigues Pires, who stepped down as president after serving two terms. President Pires was the 2011 winner of the Mo Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership, which is awarded to former African leaders with a demonstrated record of good governance. Finally, Cape Verde has had a 20-year record of a multi-party democracy.

Senegal

Senegal also scores high on various indicators of governance and has a good track record of free and fair elections. President Macky Sall was elected in April last year after defeating the incumbent president, Abdoulaye Wade, who had sought a third term in office after manipulating the country’s constitution in order to be eligible to run for a third term. The rejection of Wade by the country’s voters signifies the maturity of Senegal as a democracy and in part explains the inclusion of President Sall attending next Thursday’s White House meeting.

Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone and Malawi do not score as high as Cape Verde and Senegal in terms of good governance. However, the democratic trajectory in these countries over the past few years has been positive. President Koroma of Sierra Leone was first elected in 2007 and reelected in 2012. Although the country’s democracy is a work in progress, the nation has emerged from a devastating conflict, which lasted from 1991-2002, and its transition to a democratically-elected leader and the maintenance of peace are significant.

Malawi

Joyce Banda, who was previously the vice president of Malawi, became president in April last year following the death of then-president, Bingu wa Mutharika. While Malawi has had a good track record of democratic reforms, there was a serious erosion of democracy during the last few years of Mutharika’s rule as he became increasingly authoritarian. At the time of his death, Mutharika had isolated his country from many of its international development and foreign aid partners. Banda’s rise to the presidency is significant in that after Mutharika’s death, his close allies in the government sought to deny Banda the constitutional right to assume the presidency. However, the provisions of the constitution were upheld, which is a credit to the people of Malawi and the country’s democratic institutions. President Banda also represents one of two female presidents in Africa, which is a sign of increasing political inclusion. Banda has also started to rebuild the Malawi’s relationships with the international community.

A Message to President Obama to Broaden Engagement with Africa

President Obama’s engagement with a select group of African leaders whose countries have made advances in democratic reforms has its merits. However, there are many countries that are critical to peace and security in Africa and deserve to be part of the conversation with the president. Furthermore, with the increasing pace of regional integration in Africa, the economies are intertwined such that what happens in one country impacts on other countries. Thus, the president’s engagement with Africa should also be more inclusive and as much as possible engage directly with the broader African leadership probably through the African Union organs.

A Message to the African Leaders

But the African presidents should not just represent their own countries. The opportunity to meet with President Obama should also be used to articulate the broader challenges that Africa faces and the need for deeper U.S. engagement with the region. In particular, the leaders should impress on the president the need for a coherent strategy to deal with security threats that have become increasingly serious in the continent. The leaders should also urge President Obama to focus more on commercial engagement for the mutual benefit of Africa and the United States. Finally, the African leaders should make a case for U.S. to increase its support of Africa’s regional integration project as well as addressing its huge infrastructure deficit and energy poverty. These are areas where U.S. involvement can have major impacts in Africa’s development and simultaneously benefit Americans and U.S. businesses.

Authors

Mwangi S. Kimenyi

Will a New Constitution Reverse Zimbabwe’s Political and Economic Degeneration?

Mwangi S. Kimenyi and John Omiti — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 12:12:00 -0400

On Saturday March 16, 2013, Zimbabweans overwhelmingly voted in a referendum to approve a new constitution that radically changes the governance institutions of their country. It is reported that over 50 percent of the country’s 5.6 million registered voters took part in the referendum, which was conducted peacefully. More than 2,000 election observers, drawn mainly from Southern African Development Community countries, observed the election. The coalition government of President Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union—Patriotic Front (ZANU–PF) and Morgan Tsivingari’s Movement for Democratic Change—Tsvangirai (MDC-T) supported the proposed constitution. The other two minority parties did not mount any meaningful opposition.

Among the important provisions of the constitution is that it sets a two five-year term limit for the president. Even more significant for Zimbabwe, which has seen a consistent decline in political freedoms, the new constitution provides for a Bill of Rights guaranteeing certain rights, enumerating such rights as the right to life, right to personal liberty, various political rights, rights of arrested and detained persons, freedom from torture, and many others to its citizens. The constitution will also entrench devolution and, much like recently adopted constitutions in Africa, calls for increased representation of women, reserving 60 seats for women in the National Assembly to be elected through a system of proportional representation.

Following the passage of the constitution, a serious contest is expected in about three or four months’ time when the new constitution will provide the basis for the next elections. According to some observers, it is not clear whether President Mugabe will offer himself for re-election under the new constitution although he is eligible. Even at 89 years of age, some Zimbabweans fear that Robert Mugabe will argue that this is the beginning of his new term as president. This situation is much like in the case of Kenya, wherein former President Daniel Arap Moi also contested afresh under a new constitution despite having ruled for more than 10 years.

Zimbabwe politics seem to revolve around land reform. President Mugabe’s ZANU-PF has played his politics around land reform since independence in 1980. The importance of land became even more profound in the last seven or so years when the economy nearly collapsed, experiencing the worst inflation in the world’s history. Peasants resorted to subsistence farming to eke out a living under such miserable conditions. Many Zimbabweans emigrated to neighboring countries, especially South Africa. The Zimbabwe currency collapsed. Zimbabwe now uses the U.S. dollar as its official currency, together with the South African rand.

Thus, one of the dilemmas facing policymakers in Zimbabwe is how to manage to introduce a new Zimbabwe currency without hurting recent economic recovery. The use of the U.S. dollar has reduced inflation greatly, although many people lost their savings when the country adopted the U.S. dollar. The economy is slowly recovering, notably in the tobacco sector. And, by a stroke of good luck, Zimbabwe discovered huge mineral deposits, especially diamonds. Zimbabwe now has about 25 percent of the world’s diamonds.

The July 2013 elections are likely to see a major contest between ZANU-PF and MDC-T. Even if President Mugabe gives in, it is expected that ZANU-PF lieutenants will wage a thorough campaign to hold on to the leadership mantle. Political pundits expect ZANU-PF to lay a thorough electioneering machine to maintain leadership using land reform and mineral policy as major bargaining strategies.

Thus, questions still linger as to whether the new constitution will change the country’s political landscape. The major problem with Zimbabwe’s politics to date has been the concentration of power in the presidency. The new constitution has, in many ways, reduced the powers of the president while expanding the rights of the citizenry. However, to realize the full benefits promised by the constitution, it is not just enough to enact the constitution. For a country that has seen years of erosion of the rule of law, the real challenge is inculcating a culture of constitutionalism in society.

Authors

Mwangi S. Kimenyi
John Omiti

Kenya’s Uhuru Kenyatta Deserves Support of the International Community

Mwangi S. Kimenyi — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 09:46:00 -0400

The people of Kenya have elected Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta as their president and William Ruto as the deputy president. This was the first election under a new constitution and also the first presidential election after the 2007 post-election violence. Although there were technical challenges with the electronic system that was meant to transmit results from the polling stations to the national tallying center, the election was largely free, fair and credible. Contrary to widespread predictions that the race would end in a runoff, Kenyatta was able to receive over 50 percent of the votes cast in the first round as required by the constitution for a candidate to be declared president.

The electoral process was managed by an electoral commission that is independent, and one that has conducted its business in an open and transparent manner. The commission set various eligibility requirements for the candidates to run for the presidency and other elected positions. The commission has also followed the election regulations guiding its operations. The reformed judiciary properly adjudicated the eligibility of the candidates. Thus, by all standards and provisions of Kenya’s new constitution, Uhuru Kenyatta has been duly elected the fourth president of the Republic of Kenya.

The election was conducted under intense international oversight of a large contingency of international observers. The general verdict of the observers is that the election was free and fair. Thus, the election of Kenyatta and Ruto is a true reflection of the will of the people of Kenya and is therefore an advancement of democracy in Kenya and Africa.

Kenyatta and Ruto’s win has not come easy. The two have been indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged involvement in the 2007 post-election violence. The ICC intervention in Kenya has, however, been seen by Kenyans as largely a political, rather than a judicial, process. A large fraction of Kenyans have come to regard the ICC intervention as an attempt to remove the two from political contention rather than seek justice for the victims of the violence. This view was given credence by statements by European and U.S. officials warning Kenyans of dire consequences if they elected Kenyatta and Ruto. These statements came just when polls showed that the race for presidency was tightening. Therefore, many Kenyans considered the statements an attempt by the United States and Europe to impose leaders on them: To an extent, Uhuru’s win represents a rejection of what Kenyans consider neo-colonial intervention. Even with intimidation over sanctions, Kenyans have made their choice, and this choice should be respected by all those who genuinely stand for democracy and freedom.

The election of the two should also be seen as repudiation of the ICC. As I have observed over the last year, the ICC intervention in Kenya has had the very adverse effect of exacerbating ethnic divisions in the country. To some extent, the rejection of Prime Minister Raila Odinga is because of his real or perceived collaboration with the ICC to selectively have his key competitors accused. While this perception of his motives may be unfair, it has gained traction and was a key factor in bringing Ruto and Kenyatta together into the winning coalition. In essence, the credibility of the ICC in Kenya and, indeed, in Africa is severely damaged. As such, the international community’s engagement with Kenya should not be informed by the ICC process. Already the cases are falling apart and the Court has in fact referred one of the cases back to the pre-trial chamber to reconsider the confirmation of charges. There are indications that the charges should be withdrawn as witnesses have recanted their statements, which were pivotal in confirming the charges. It is therefore irrational and shortsighted for foreign governments to base their relations with a democratically elected government on the basis of what Kenyans have come to rightfully consider a highly political ICC process.

The head of state and his deputy face a challenging task ahead of them. The new leadership must focus on the issues surrounding the post-election violence, including historical grievances, such as land ownership and access to economic opportunities, that were the real cause of the violence. They must also focus on regional inequalities and youth unemployment, both of which have the potential to destabilize the country. Finally, the new leadership has inherited a country that is severely divided along ethnic lines, especially because of the ICC intervention. Kenya cannot become the great nation that it aspires to be with such a fractionalized society. The success of the Kenyatta administration will therefore largely depend on how well it succeeds in unifying Kenyans.

For the Kenyatta administration to succeed in steering Kenya towards a path of economic transformation, it must strengthen Kenya’s relations with her neighbors in East Africa and Africa at large. The administration must also deepen and diversify the country’s strategic relations with the wider international community, especially in respect to development cooperation, trade and investment. However, such relationships should not be at the expense of ceding Kenya’s sovereignty. This is the clear and resounding message that Kenyans sent in voting for Kenyatta and Ruto.

A few weeks before the election, President Barack Obama delivered a pointed message to the people of Kenya in which he made it clear that the United States was not supporting any particular candidate and that his government would work with the leaders that Kenyans elect in a free and fair election. The Kenyans have made this choice and have done so guided by a new constitution that has largely overhauled the country’s institutions. To advance the course of peace and stability in Kenya, it is crucial that the international community, led by President Obama, support Kenyatta and his government as he takes over the leadership of the country. This support should start with an explicit message congratulating the president-elect.

President Obama can demonstrate his commitment to the advancement of democracy in Africa by making an official visit to Kenya as soon as possible. It will be great day for Kenya and Africa when the democratically elected President Kenyatta hosts the leader of the free world in the country of his father’s birth.

Authors

Mwangi S. Kimenyi

Oil and Gas Management for Inclusive and Sustainable Development: An East African Regional Forum

Thu, 07 Mar 2013 11:15:00 -0500

Editor's Note: This report recaps the East Africa Regional Forum on oil and gas management for inclusive and sustainable development in Africa held on January 23-24, 2013, and jointly organized by the Economic Policy Research Centre, the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and the Africa Growth Initiative.

Recent discoveries of commercially viable deposits of oil and gas in Uganda and Kenya, as well as ongoing efforts to improve and make oil production in South Sudan more efficient, have brought to the fore the need to revisit national policies for the exploration and exploitation of oil and gas reserves and the allocation of the revenues obtained from such activities. Informed discussions based on research and evidence on how best to efficiently and effectively manage East Africa’s natural resources are of critical importance at this stage of the development of these resources.

Thus, in order to deliberate on and critically explore these issues, leading policy think tanks in East Africa—the Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC), Uganda; Kenya Institute for Public Policy and Analysis (KIPPRA); and Centre for Strategic Analyses and Research (C-SAR), South Sudan—in collaboration with the Africa Growth Initiative (AGI) at the Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., organized the two-day Forum on the Management of Oil and Gas Resources for Inclusive and Sustainable Development in Africa. The forum brought together 114 delegates from the East Africa region to deliberate on how to efficiently manage their oil and gas reserves.

The delegates engaged in rigorous debate about the exploration and exploitation of oil and gas, the efficient and equitable management of oil revenues and the management of the environment. Their particular focus was on how regional cooperation can enhance the efficient utilization of the region’s resources. In addition to sharing their experiences about managing an oil-based economy, they emphasized the importance of openness and transparency in the design and implementation of policies for the management of this nascent sector.

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United States Engagement with the Rising Continent: Embracing Africa’s Economic Potential

Mwangi S. Kimenyi — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 16:29:00 -0500

Over the past 15 years, the African political and economic landscape has changed a great deal. In 2000, The Economist referred to the continent as “Hopeless Africa,” and in 2011 the same magazine referred to the same place as “rising Africa.” In this week’s issue, The Economist includes a special report in which it refers to Africa as the “Hopeful Continent” and uses terms such as emerging and aspiring to describe Africa. Recently, other analysts have referred to the new Africa in similar terms.

But as Africa has changed, United States engagement with the continent has remained relatively static and largely unimaginative. United States engagement with the continent is largely from the perspective of the multiplicity of the continent’s problems rather than the opportunities it offers to its people and the international community. However, other countries such as China, India, Russia, Brazil, Turkey and Iran, among many others, have accelerated their engagement with Africa with a view to seizing the opportunities by the new Africa. With the entry of these countries, the United States is increasingly becoming a marginal player in the continent.

Yet, there is increasing realization that it is an extremely costly mistake for U.S. policy towards Africa not to take into account current realities of the emerging continent. One example is Senate Bill S. 2215 (112^th), Increasing American Jobs Through Accelerated Exports to Africa, that identifies ways to leverage the potential that Africa presents as a market for American goods.

On March 7, 2013, Senator Chris Coons, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee of African Affairs, released a new report, Embracing Africa’s Economic Potential, that seeks to deepen U.S. commercial engagement in Africa. The report points to the many changes that have taken place in Africa and its positive drivers of economic growth. The report provides creative approaches to improve U.S.-Africa commercial engagement for the benefit of both the U.S. and African countries.

The report provides a credible strategy for the United States to make already existing commercial engagement more effective and, in particular, to make the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) work better in promoting African exports to United States. Senator Coons himself also calls for the strengthening and the re-authorization of AGOA. However, the report goes beyond a focus on benefits that accrue to Africa, and calls for strategies to support American firms invest and do business in Africa and also to better exploit the contribution of the African diaspora in the United States. The report suggests that deeper and better structured engagement with Africa will provide investments for American businesses and contribute to job creation at home.

The Embracing Africa’s Economic Potential strategy signifies a welcome acknowledgement by U.S. policymakers of the realities of the new Africa. Such an approach should inform the basis of the broader US-Africa engagement.

Authors

Mwangi S. Kimenyi

Crisis in Mali and North Africa: Past and Present

Thu, 21 Feb 2013 09:30:00 -0500

Event Information

February 21, 2013
9:30 AM - 10:30 AM EST

Room B338
Rayburn House Office Building

Washington, DC

On Thursday, February 21, the Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings (AGI) and the Congressional African Staff Association (CASA) hosted a briefing for congressional staffers on the current crisis in Mali and North Africa. Panelists included: Susanna Wing, associate professor of political science at Haverford College, and Nasser Weddady, director of civil rights outreach at the American Islamic Congress. AGI Director Mwangi S. Kimenyi moderated the briefing.

This event is part of the Africa Policy Dialogue on the Hill, a monthly congressional briefing hosted by AGI and CASA on topical issues relevant to Africa’s growth and security.

TRANSCRIPT

MR. DIAKABANA: So, good morning and welcome to the African Dialogue on the Hill. I’m Cedric Diakabana. I’m a staff member in the office of Senator Sheldon Whitehouse.

We will get an African perspective on Africa issues as well as those of outside experts. This is a monthly co-presentation by the Confessional African Staff Association, or CASA, and the African Growth Initiative of the Brookings Institution.

For those who know CASA, we’re a bipartisan, bicameral association of staff members who seek to educate our colleagues on today’s substantive Africa issues, on the continent or within the great African Diaspora through panel discussions, briefings and other events with decision-makers and officials involved in African policy.

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Event Materials

022113BROOKINGSAFRICA_Transcript_FINAL

Participants

Panelists

Mwangi S. Kimenyi

Director, Africa Growth Initiative
Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development

Cedric Diakabana

Nassar Weddady

Susanna Wing

Associate Professor of Political Science

Kenya Decides: The 2013 Presidential Election

Wed, 20 Feb 2013 13:00:00 -0500

Event Information

February 20, 2013
1:00 PM - 2:30 PM EST

Saul/Zilkha Rooms
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

Next month, Kenya will hold its first elections since 2007. While the country has made significant progress since this time, including approving a new constitution and achieving strong economic growth, two of the leading candidates for president and vice president – Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate William Ruto – are being indicted by the International Criminal Court for their alleged role in the violence that followed the 2007 elections. International pressure for free and fair elections in Kenya is high and holding peaceful elections in the country will have major implications for the region and relations with international partners, including the United States.

On February 20, the Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings hosted a discussion on Kenya’s upcoming elections. Panelists included: Jendayi Frazer, distinguished service professor at Carnegie Mellon University; Karuti Kanyinga, professor the Institute for Development Studies at the University of Nairobi; and Brookings Senior Fellow Mwangi Kimenyi, director of the Africa Growth Initiative. Vincent Makori, host of Voice of America’s Africa In Focus, moderated the discussion.

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Kenya Decides: The 2013 Presidential Election